BELMONT HOME VALUES CONTINUE THEIR ASCENT AS SALES DECLINED

It wasn’t just Sir Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos that have shepherded in a new era. Belmont single family homes values have continued their pandemic born steep ascent.

First, the numbers:

Belmont home values continued their astronomical ascent as sales declined in September of 2021. Belmont sales of single family homes fell 9.6% from September of 2020 to the same period in 2021. Compared to September of 2019, pre-pandemic, sales were up this year more than 53% in 2021.

The average time it took to sell a home went down from 19 days to 12.

The Months of Inventory—the time it would take to sell all the homes on the market at the current rate of sales—went from .8 months down to .5, and the available inventory of homes to choose from went from 21 in 2020, to only 11 in 2021. To put this into perspective, the U.S. housing inventory sits at 6.1 months.

The median home price rose from $1,925,000 to $2,235,000, close to a 12% increase YOY. It’s important to note that the size of homes selling in these two periods went down, from 2,150 ft² to 1,737 ft², a 19% decrease, which serves to only magnify the cost to the consumer. 

The price per ft² in 2020 was $979 and increased to $1,299 in 2021. It’s typical for the price per square foot to go up when smaller homes are selling, since it does not take into consideration the lot which the homes sit upon.

What is noteworthy is while the size of homes selling in these two periods went down 19%, prices went up 12%—illustrating that for 12% more in 2021, one could only get a 19% smaller home.

The percentage sellers received also went up from 101% of the asking price in 2020 to 112% in 2021, underscoring the strong demand.

Due to the increase in home values, the cost of home ownership, while borrowing money at 3% interest, went up $1,000 per month in just the last year. If interest rates were to rise to just 4%, the median price home in Belmont would cost ~ additional $1,000 per month.  

According to Mike Farrell of Wells Fargo, a person wishing to buy the median priced Belmont home with 20% down in 2020 needed to earn ~$225,0000 a year, while in 2021 that rose to $300,000 per year. That’s assuming the borrower has no other debt, such as credit card, car payments or school loans.

For buyers with stock options, puting a larger down payment may be an option to increase their buying power without worrying about needing more income to qualify for a mortgage. But for buyers with traditional salaries—essential workers from Teachers, Police, Firefighters, and hospital workers to grocery store employees, and restaurant workers who, without help from outside wealthy family members, will have little hope of ever buying into the dream of home ownership in the Bay Area.

Unfortunately, we see the same story playing out in San Mateo County as a whole.

The most important take-aways from these numbers are the median home price, which jumped 6% YOY, while the size of homes selling were 2% smaller, and the percentage the seller received of their asking price jumped 6 percentage points from 102% of asking to 108%.

As a direct result of the pandemic, many apartment renters, and condominium owners, found to work from home—and in many cases home school children, they needed more space. Since public gatherings were off the table—they wanted a yard as well as no common areas such as elevators. This created a glut of condominiums on the market.

It goes without saying, that we are in unchartered waters in terms of housing demand. Looking at this data from Case-Shiller®️, as compiled by FRED®, which covers the San Francisco MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) comprised of five of the nine Bay Area Counties, one can see the dramatic spike in home values beginning in 2020.

If you have considered selling your home and would like to maximize the proceeds from your sale, please contact us for a no obligation assessment.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

OFF-MARKET OPPORTUNITY 1926 Oak Knoll Drive, Belmont

Every so often, there’s a home so special that words cannot do it justice. We could describe it as chic, modern, high-tech, luxurious, inviting and comfortable, but one really must see this home in person to appreciate the complete experience.

This nine-year new classically crafted home has been designed in a contemporary style best described as offering clean lines, proportions, open layouts and abundant natural light. Additional characteristics include flat and shallow-pitched roofs, large expanses of glass, clean unencumbered walls, and an intrinsic connection between the indoor and outdoor space. The result? Gracious, streamlined spaces that radiate harmony.

The entire main floor is thoughtfully laid out with a ground level bedroom, full bath, great room, grand dining area, and kitchen combination. The great room on the main level, encompasses a professional styled kitchen, impressive communal dining area, and an eat-at bar and separate enclave for casual meals or conversations. Functionality includes a six burner Viking® stainless stove and oven combination, warming drawer, deep soft-close drawers while industrial-styled custom concrete countertops complete the chic feel. With a separate stainless prep sink and custom metro shelved pantry, this kitchen remains deeply functional while staying true to the minimalist aesthetic.

Rooms are naturally illuminated with a combination of celestial skylights and transom room transitions. Floor–to-ceiling windows feature expansive views of San Francisco City, the Bay, Mt. Diablo as well as 180º views from the pronounced view deck—harmoniously integrating the indoors with the world.

Bamboo hardwood flooring and stainless cabled railings flow gracefully throughout the home and the inverted layout with the bedrooms below, exemplifies the views from the upstairs main living area.

Down the naturally illuminated open stairwell, we find the lower level bedrooms—perfectly located for warm summer nights. The lower area consists of a main hall with nine foot ceilings leading to the laundry area, two bedrooms serviced by a central hall bath, and a bonus room or 5thbedroom. Also on this level is the owner’s ensuite, which enjoys its own private deck access with spa overlooking the bay. A dual floating sink vanity is in the owner’s suite bath along with a seamless separate shower enclosure and oversized soaking tub and a walk-in closet is nearby.

To visit 1926 Oak Knoll is to realize the passion that went into creating this unique home. We are excited to proudly present this enchanting retreat— welcome home!

FEATURES:

HOME

  • Nine-year new construction with ~68 posts and piers
  • Quiet cul-de-sac
  • Protected micro-climate location
  • Street level entry main living area-reverse floor plan
  • Hardwood Bamboo floors
  • Smooth stucco & sheetrock wall finish
  • Contemporary styling
  • Transom windows
  • Solid core doors
  • Led recessed lighting
  • Stainless cabled railings
  • Dual pane Anderson windows
  • Tankless water heater

MAIN LEVEL

  • Great room with ~11’ gradient ceilings
  • Large communal dining area
  • Celestial windows with automated opening system
  • Open style great room floor plan with pitched ceilings and stunning views
  • Corner low-heat glass fireplace
  • Office, Media room or additional bedroom
  • Two car garage—S.F. views, and plumbed for H&C convenient car washing

CHEF’S KITCHEN

  • Six burner Viking® stove & stainless hood
  • Built-in Viking® microwave
  • Side prep sink
  • Deep cabinetry drawer for professional cooking vessels
  • Walk-in pantry includes custom metro shelving
  • Appliance garage
  • Built-in warming drawer
  • Stainless basin sinks
  • Stainless floating hood
  • Custom concrete counters

FUNCTIONAL VIEW DECKS

  • Multiple private view decks with spa—plumbed for natural gas outdoor grill
  • 180º  bay views of San Francisco downtown & Bay, Mt. Diablo to the south bay
  • Eastern profile for dramatic sunrises year round

GROUNDS

  • Level lower area with large flat paved space suitable for basketball (hoop installed w/lighting), play area or entertaining
  • Gardening beds
  • Mature plantings on almost ¼ acre includes chicken coop and run

OWNER’S SUITE

  • Expansive walk-in closet, soaking tub and separate seamless shower enclosure,
  • Dual raised sinks on floating cabinetry
  • Access to private second level decks and spa
  • ~9’ ceilings

LOWER LEVEL

  • Owner’s Suite and three additional bedrooms
  • Amazing lower level storage areas with ideal wine storage capacity
  • 2nd level room could be 5th bedroom
  • 9’ ceilings

Prop 13 May Die a Slow Death

Do you remember proposition 13? If you do, you probably own a home, but prop 13 may be dying a slow death, at least for industrial and commercial properties.

THE BACKSTORY: On June 6th, 1978, nearly two-thirds of California’s voters passed Proposition 13, reducing property tax rates on homes, and businesses by about 57%. Proposition 13 forever altered the way property taxes would be levied on real property, or so voters were promised.

Under Proposition 13 tax reform, property tax value was rolled back and frozen at the 1976 assessed value level. Property tax increases on any given property were limited to no more than 2% per year as long as the property was not sold. Once sold, the property was reassessed at 1% of the sale price, and the 2% yearly cap became applicable to future years.

Prior to Proposition 13, the property tax rate throughout California averaged a little less than 3% of market value. Additionally, there were no limits on increases for the tax rate or on individual ad valorem charges. (“Ad valorem” refers to taxes based on the assessed value of property). Some properties were reassessed 50% to 100% in just one year and their owners’ property tax bills increased accordingly.

But change is inevitable, and that’s exactly what proponents of the newly proposed initiative are counting on.

WHAT’S IN STORE: A new ballot initiative that takes aim at how commercial properties are taxed under California’s Proposition 13 could raise $6 to $10 billion more each year for schools and other programs and services, according to a new analysis by the Legislative Analyst’s Office.

At the heart of the initiative, (which is still being reviewed by the state attorney general’s office), is a property tax law enshrined in the state constitution since 1978. Proposition 13 caps taxes for all kinds of properties — residential and commercial — at 1 percent of a property’s purchase price, allowing for increases of no more than 2 percent per year, even if the value of the property triples or quadruples over time.

The initiative would change the constitution so that commercial and industrial properties — and land not intended for housing development — are instead taxed based on their current market value. The idea, long favored by critics of Proposition 13, is often called a “split roll” since it would not affect protections for residential properties. Businesses whose total property holdings are valued below $2 million would be exempt.

Supporters of the ballot initiative include the League of Women Voters, California Calls, PICO California and other civic and community groups.

But that’s not the end it. The California Association of REALTORS wasn’t to put more teeth into the initiative by adding an initiative to the proposition 13 overhaul that changes how those homeowners over 55 can transfer their tax base.

Currently, Proposition 60, enacted into law in 1986, allows for the one-time transfer of your current home’s tax base to a replacement property of equal or lesser value after the age of 55 of either spouse, providing that the replacement property was located within the same county.

The problem for most people wishing to benefit from this tax base transfer is they are limited to moving within the county in which they currently reside, or moving to one of only a handful of reciprocal counties (Alameda, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Ventura, San Mateo, Santa Clara, or El Dorado).

The new proposed initiative tied to proposition 13 amendments would allow homeowners over 55 to carry with them their current tax base whenever, (as many times as they like), and wherever they move—so long as they stay within California.

Proponents of the initiative say it will help free up the housing inventory shortage, as many long-time homeowners are reticent to move if they can’t carry their low tax base. While opponents, such as San Francisco-based YIMBY Action, a pro-development, millennial-led group say that this initiative is just helping the rich get richer—implicit in their argument is that if you own a home, you must be rich.

Thanks to the San Jose Mercury for providing much of the article’s investigative analysis and insight.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario

 

 

 

Winning the Bid May Actually Be Losing

Are agents terrible at pricing homes for sale, or is there another reason so many homes sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars over the asking price?

When a home is underpriced, or overpriced for that matter, it often has to do with the fact that the listing agent is from out of the area. They miss the mark because in their home turf, homes may be selling for less (or more) than where their listing is located, and when they apply their native pricing strategies to a listing they have out of the area, they can be pretty far off at times.

The same goes for an agent who represents a buyer in an area where they’re not as familiar with the local home values. They may grossly overestimate a home’s worth, based upon their experience in the area where they concentrate, thus recommending an offer price to a buyer that is too high and artificially driving the prices up.

Then there’s the phenomenon known as the “Winner’s Curse”, hence while you may be winning the bid, you’re actually losing. The winner’s curse may occur in any auction where less than complete information is available. The winner’s curse says that in such an auction, the winner will tend to overpay. The winner may overpay or be “cursed” in one of two ways: 1) the winning bid exceeds the intrinsic value of the asset or 2) the value of the asset is less than the bidder anticipated, so the bidder may still have a net gain, but will be worse off than anticipated.

The Winner’s Curse phenomenon also manifests itself in the home buying process in several additional ways, some of which are introduced by the buyers.

When a buyer tries to outbid their competition by purposefully offering more than the home should be worth, just to win the auction, they may win the bid, but by definition, they paid too much, since the average bid typically defines the value, and the winning bid is the outlier.

Since homes are not a commodity, as in oil or gas for example, wherein the value is pretty well understood and, more importantly, oil is oil and it either makes sense to purchased it at “x” price or it doesn’t. Wherein when it comes to homes, at least those located outside of tract areas, are unique unto themselves, and buying a similar home may not be nearly as emotionally appealing. In this way, it’s more like adopting a child, no two are the same.

From a listing agent’s standpoint, pricing a home at the selling price of the home across the street typically backfires. Here’s why. Let’s say that the home across the street was listed at $1,000,000, and sold with ten offers for $1,400,000. The high bidder, who won the bid, and by definition paid too much—because they paid more than any other buyer was willing to bid—is now out of the pool of potential bidders for the next home—the one you just listed across the street. This means out of the nine residual buyers, none were willing to pay $1,400,000 and some may have even already moved on, or are in contract on another home. What did the other nine buyers bid? Only that listing agent will ever know, but the next highest bidder is the one you need to attract and who knows how much they offered.  And this of course assumes that the homes are identical—which they never are. The second highest bidder might not even like your listing, might be out of town the week you go on the market, which means now you are relegated to the third, fourth, or fifth bidders in order of their declining tolerance for bidding or ability to pay.

This is one reason agents will intentionally list a home at what seems to be irresponsible—far below what it might eventually sell for, based upon the recent comparable sales in the area. And while this practice might be viewed by some as false advertising, which is illegal, as the home might well be priced lower than recent sales, it might actually be priced appropriately for its intrinsic value.

In residential real estate valuation, there are several ways to ascertain the intrinsic value of a home. The three accepted practices in real estate are known as the Comparative Market Approach, also known as the sales comparison approach, the Principle of Substitution, (what else could I buy), and the Cost Approach, (how much would it cost to build a similar home from scratch).

Agents and buyers alike tend to rely heavily on the sales comparison approach, as it makes sense to compare the home they are buying to those which have recently sold, but if the buyers are bidding too much on homes, than the comparable sales are less trustworthy, and looking at the Cost Approach, or what it would cost to build a new home might be more effective, if nothing more as a check and balance against the price one might offer.

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Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario

Belmont Home Value’s Increase—Is There No End in Sight?

Before we head into the winter slow season for home sales, we’ll take a quick look back at Q3 home sales for Belmont, and the larger San Mateo County.

BELMONT & SAN MATEO COUNTY

HOME SALES—

Belmont had 78 new listings in Q3 as compared to 64 last year during the same period, and increase of 18%.

San Mateo County’s inventory of new listings dropped 6% YOY

INVENTORY/SALES—

Ironically, even with more new listings the inventory dropped 21% YOY. Why? Because sales increased 17% eliminating housing inventory.

SMC’S overall inventory also dropped—31% YOY, and sales dropped by 3.4%

DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) —

The time it took to sell a home in Belmont, on average, dropped from 16 days to 14

SMC Days on market dropped from 27 to 23

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

The median home price increased 12.7% YOY for Q3 for closed homes. When we compared the size of the homes selling in the two periods, there was statistically no difference, at 1784 ft² in 2016 and 1,748 ft² in 2017—so we made no adjustment for square footage interfering with the median home price swing. Note that Belmont it an all-time median home price point this October 2017.

San Mateo COUNTY’S MEDIAN HOME PRICE ROSE 9.5% YOY IN Q3

PERCENT RECEIVED

Belmont home seller’s eked out 4.4% more for their homes over their list price than last year during the same period.

In San Mateo County that number went up to 3.7% of asking

WRAP-UP

In every category in regards to home sale activity, Belmont outperformed and outpaced San Mateo County leading speculation that the peak for Belmont home values have not yet been reached.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario

 

 

 

 

 

 

Waterdog Tavern in Belmont-What’s in a Name?

Waterdog Tavern

We were delighted as were many Belmont residents with the opening of a new restaurant, Waterdog Tavern in the Carlmont Village Shopping Centre last year. This past Spring, they opened the spacious outdoor area for sociable dining in a “dog friendly” environment, and we now visit frequently with our dog, Wyatt.

If you see us outside with this friendly little guy, stop by to say hello!

One of the questions we often hear: Where did they get the name Waterdog Tavern?

Since Belmont is our home, and we’re quite familiar about our local history, we knew at once where they got the clever name. We asked the owners, Toby and Anne, who often get asked the same question, to weigh in for our readers about the backstory of why they picked the name they did. Enjoy!

Toby McMillan (Owner):

Our family moved to Belmont from Sacramento in 2006. Not long afterwards Anne & I were strolling through Carlmont Village for the first time, when we came upon the outdoor area where the old Carlmont Nursery used to display their huge selection of Japanese Maples. We both remarked how beautiful the space was, and hoped that someday the adjacent restaurant (Hola!) might make arrangements to serve food & beer in the outdoor space – a few picnic tables would be great. I remarked, not very seriously at the time, that if it were ever possible to get both of those spaces, we should jump on the chance.

Fast forward to the Fall of 2015. After seriously searching for a couple of years for the right space to open a new restaurant that had outdoor seating and great parking, Carlmont Nursery and Hola! decided to close their doors within a month of each other. We pinched ourselves that two spaces had become available simultaneously and set out to create a casual, comfortable, warm, inviting restaurant, where the community and those traveling by The Village could gather to enjoy great food & drinks – The Tavern concept was born. Now…what to name it?

We had come up with different names for other concepts, but they were all location specific and would not work with what we had planned for this restaurant. As Belmont residents, we wanted the name to reflect the surroundings and the casualness of the concept. One day I was talking to a friend, and they mentioned they had taken their dog for a walk at Waterdog Lake, and a light bulb went on: Waterdog Tavern! Waterdog Lake is not only a long time Belmont landmark, but is known by folks up & down the Peninsula. To add to that, we had already begun tossing around the idea of making the Beer Garden dog friendly, and with so many local residents walking their dogs at Waterdog Lake on a regular basis it seemed a perfect fit.

Now with that being said, we are aware that the name of Waterdog Lake has nothing to do with dogs, but was coined because the lake (officially named Notre Dame Lake) used to teem with salamanders, and ‘waterdog’ is a salamander nickname. Anne has fond childhood memories of spotting waterdogs in her Grandma’s fountain in Belmont. Having made the decision to make the Beer Garden dog-friendly, we came up with our ‘Shaking Dog’ logo as a bit of a play on words. A recognition of all of the waterdogs that we all know and love, including our Australian Shepard, Buddy… We mean no disrespect to salamanders and have enjoyed sharing our story with guests!

 

Belmont Home Price Increases Slow to a Crawl

In each of our Newsletters we bring you the recent Belmont home sales for the previous month. This time we thought we’d stack up the months of August to the same time last year, so the variance from the previous year is obvious.

The first thing that jumps out at us is that there were 33% fewer sales overall.  If we take out the one off-market sale in 2016, the time it took for the homes to sell really didn’t change. Homes are still selling briskly at about 10-14 days on the market—which really is more dependent upon which day the seller elects to hear offers.

There were two homes which underwent a price reduction before selling, and one home that sold for under the seller’s asking price in 2017, and none in 2016. Still, the amount the seller’s received stayed at around 108% of the seller’s asking price.

Since the size of homes which sold in both years was statistically unchanged, the median price difference YOY is very reliable. It shows that homes in Belmont rose on average almost 10% YOY with the median home price rising a modest 5.13 %. Are we near the top of the market? These almost nominal increases would suggest so, though to a buyer, in real dollars, the medium price home in Belmont just went up $75,000.

[CLICK ON THE IMAGE FOR A FULL SIZE RENDERING]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Bay Area Home Values Eclipse Historical Records

Case Shiller Report for June 2017

The Case-Shiller Report was released June 27th, the last Tuesday of the month, which tracks home sales in 20 metropolitan cities around the country, called MSA’s, of Metropolitan Statistical Areas.

Our MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) in the Bay Area consist of five counties—Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costsa. It’s important to note that while home values might be headed upward at a dramatic pace in the counties of San Francisco and San Mateo, they might be lagging in Alameda and Contra Costa, thus diluting the upward trend in one county vs. the whole MSA. This has been the case in our area since the housing recovery began in earnest in 2012.

The same goes for the 20 city composite index, which takes 20 metropolitan cities in the country and tracks them as an average trend.

While the 10 and 20 city composite indices shows that the housing market has not yet eclipsed the all-time high recorded around March of 2006, in the Bay Area, we have.

This graph which we built utilized the data from Case-Shiller for our SFMSA and illustrates that we have reached a new all-time high for home values. However, it’s important to note that the delta between the trend line and the peak where we are today, illustrating where the straight-line home values should be, is far less than in the peak of 2006, where we see a much great deviance off the trend line values. In fact, the peak of 2006 was 58% higher above the trend line than it is today.

One might infer from this that we are not as overvalued as it might appear at first glance.

This give some credence to the synopsis for the Standard and Poor’s Case-Schiller analysis and discussion.

Case-Shiller Analysis by Standard & Poor’s— ANALYSIS

Great View of San Francisco

“As home prices continue rising faster than inflation, two questions are being asked: why? And, could this be a bubble?” says David M. Blitzer Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Since demand is exceeding supply and financing is available, there is nothing right now to keep prices from going up. The increase in real, or inflation-adjusted, home prices in the last three years shows that demand is rising. At the same time, the supply of homes for sale has barely kept pace with demand and the inventory of new or existing homes for sale shrunk down to only a four- month supply. Adding to price pressures, mortgage rates remain close to 4% and affordability is not a significant issue.

“The question is not if home prices can climb without any limit; they can’t. Rather, will home price gains gently slow or will they crash and take the economy down with them? For the moment, conditions appear favorable for avoiding a crash. Housing starts are trending higher and rising prices may encourage some homeowners to sell. Moreover, mortgage default rates are low and household debt levels are manageable. Total mortgage debt outstanding is $14.4 trillion, about $400 billion below the record set in 2008. Any increase in mortgage interest rates would dampen demand. Household finances should be able to weather a fairly large price drop.”

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario

 

 

Will There Be an End to Home Bidding Wars?

With unusually low home inventory levels, many buyers are feeling frustrated and overwhelmed at the prospect of ever getting their ideal home, or have first-hand experience at losing the home of their dreams in a bidding frenzy.

Yet not all homes sell for over their asking price. In fact many sell below. Granted, they may seem far and few between, but they are out there. In fact, so far in 2017, 25% of San Mateo County home sales sold for less than what the sellers were asking. Many wouldn’t think that’s true, and we’d be willing to bet that if asked, many would say that it’s a lot less, like 1%, but they’d be wrong. Perception is not always reality. The media’s constant coverage of how “crazy” the housing market is, has been drummed into the minds of buyers—and sellers. And the homes that people see closing well above the asking price, only serve to validate the overall impression that the market is overzealous. And that emboldens people’s impressions, but it’s more of an emotional response, than one of accuracy. It is however, what people talk about and what they remember.

We sold a home just last month at 534 Wellington Avenue to a buyer of ours. The sellers expected six offers and received none. We stepped in and delivered a full price offer and it was accepted. It’s the second lowest 3 bedroom sale in San Carlos on the west side this year.

One way to get a good deal is to focus on homes which have been initially overpriced. Any home which is still on the market after 14 days is probably one that will need a price reduction, or may be willing to take a lower offer. These are opportunities that buyers may want to focus on if the multiple bids are giving rise to second thoughts about buying a home.

As for timing the market, there are times of the year that homes get more attention and more multiple offers. We just went through that period—February, March, April and now May. A lot of “why” homes sell with more offers and at a higher percentage of the sellers asking price has to do with several factors.

[Click on the graph below for a larger image]

 

 

 

 

 

As the new year begins, buyers and sellers are slow to come out of their market hibernation, but buyers seem to thaw out first. Many buyers have just received their end-of-year bonus, which they had been waiting for to jump into the housing market.

Some buyers with children are desperately trying to get a home in order to get their kids registered into a new school before the vacancies fill up—most first enrollment periods end within the first month or two of the start of the school year.

Another influence is that buyers who had lost out on homes in the prior year now focus more than ever on not losing out again, and they bid more aggressively than other buyers who may be just dipping their toes into the waters. And by June, these more aggressive buyers have all won—they have their home and the buyers that are left are the less aggressive buyers and overbids begin to wane. This typically happens around June, as this graph above of San Mateo County home sales since the turnaround in 2012 illustrates. It’s important to note however, that while the percentage a seller receives, and the number of overbids may be fewer, that doesn’t mean that prices decline. A high home price bar has already been established in the spring and it typically carries through until the end of the year. [Note: These statistics typically lag the market by a month—the typical escrow period. So a high sale percentage in May, was likely consummated in April].

Then of course there’s the competitive spirit. Buyers want what other buyers want and often a bidding frenzy ensues, pushing prices perhaps higher than they otherwise would be. It’s important to note that the aggressive buyer gets the home—the buyer that was willing to pay more than any other buyer at that moment in time. Did they overpay? Perhaps. But now they are a comparable sale for the next home, which invariably will sell for more, and so on and so forth until at the end of the year we have “appreciation”.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and 3rd in Northern California. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomesand on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Why a Buyer Representaion Agreement Could Help You

How to decide if committing to one real estate agent is important, or should you “play the field”. We wanted to take a moment to explain a bit more about the Buyer Represention agreement, why we use one, and why it is important to you as well.

Most agents will attempt to work with 20-30 prospective buyers at a time in the hope that one will purchase a home through them—that’s an outdated model. We take a more focused approach. We work with no more than two buyers at a time in order to provide a heightened level of service. We’re not here to just set you up on an automated email list for homes—you can do that on your own. We set ourselves apart by taking proactive steps in finding you the ideal home. We meet and discuss each week to find new off market opportunities for our clients. And if you’re a client, we can even door knock and direct mail to targeted neighborhoods to find you a motivated seller.

Networking to uncover off-market opportunities is our main focus during your home search. With the advanced search engines available on the internet, everyone has access to the public
inventory. We try and uncover homes to which otherwise you would not have access.

Initially, we like to tour several homes in various areas with our clients to understand their wants and needs first-hand. This is a valuable aspect of the process, since we use this information when we go to work locating properties which are good fit for our clients.

But even focusing on working with just two buyers, it’s impossible for us to be showing homes every weekend to our clients (we also work Monday through Friday trying to find off-market properties and previewing homes).

This is why open houses are a great way for you to visit homes at your leisure. If you zero in a perspective home, that’s when we make an appointment to show you the home in private and uninterrupted. We employ our many years of visiting and following inspectors around properties to help put the deficiencies in the inspection reports into perspective.  We’ll tell you if we wouldn’t buy a particular home, and we can do that because we’re confident that at some point, we will find you the ideal home.

Would you want your agent to pressure you into buying a home, out of fear they may lose you to another agent? Or rest assured knowing that your best interest is always first and foremost.

This is just one of the important reasons that as a buyer, you should want to have an agreement in place.

Another reason to work with an agreement, is to distinguish yourself from a customer and become a client. And the difference is whether or not you are committed to the relationship with an agreement. A “Customer” does not enjoy the same legal protections that are afforded a “Client”. Many agents will work strictly with customers, because they are desperate to land a sale. The last thing you should want is a desperate agent trying to find you a home.

And then there’s the practicality of with whom we decide to work. As a client, you are privy to our “Pocket” of off-market listing. These are of course reserved for those with whom we have a relationship of mutual respect and trusMutal Agreementt.

The agreement also protects us against the threat of “procuring cause”. You see, when you walk into an open house, that agent could lay claim to you as the procuring cause of locating the home, and we may be excluded from representing you. These cases of procuring cause actions typically involve a hearing or even a lawsuit to unravel. But the issue you will encounter is that you will no longer have your own representation. In this situation, if you want to buy that home, you may be forced to work with the seller’s agent. When this occurs, Dual Agency representation exists and the agent can no longer advise you on how to proceed with an offer, but rather becomes an “order taker”—we’re willing to bet that’s not the kind of assistance you want when purchasing perhaps your largest investment ever.

Lastly, imagine your own employment situation. Would you go to work everyday wondering if you’ll ever be fairly compensated for your work? We assume enough risk as it is, as many buyers change their minds and never purchase a home.

We hope that this will shed some clarity on why a written working understanding is important to a mutually respective relationship.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 3

Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA. They have been assisting buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond award and ranked among the top 50 agents nationwide and top 3 in Northern California by RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or email info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook and on Twitter.

This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice, and it cannot replace advice tailored to your specific situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional who is familiar with your scenario.

0 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomesand on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.