🌕🌼 May’s Double Feature: The Flower Moon & Blue Moon Over the Peninsula

Blue Moon

Every so often, the calendar gives us a little extra magic—and May 2026 delivers exactly that.

This month brings a rare double feature in the night sky:

  • 🌼 The Flower Moon on May 1st
  • 🔵 A Blue Moon on May 31st

Two full moons. One month. And a subtle reminder that timing—whether in nature or real estate—can change everything.

🌸 The Flower Moon: Spring at Its Peak

The Flower Moon marks the moment when spring is fully in bloom. Named for the explosion of wildflowers across North America, it’s long been associated with growth, renewal, and momentum.

Sound familiar?

In the Peninsula housing market, this is often when we see:

  • Listings showing at their absolute best
  • Buyers re-engaging after early-year hesitation
  • Momentum building toward late spring activity

🔵 The Blue Moon: A Rare Second Chance

Then comes the encore.

A Blue Moon—defined as the second full moon in a calendar month—lands on May 31st. It’s where the phrase â€śonce in a blue moon” comes from… something a little unexpected, a little rare.

And in real estate terms, it mirrors something we see all the time:

  • A buyer who missed out early… getting another shot
  • A seller who waited… and hits the market at just the right moment
  • A deal that comes together when timing finally aligns

A Local Perspective

Here on the Mid-Peninsula, these moons won’t just be symbolic—they’ll be visible reminders.

Catch them rising over the Bay, glowing just above the hills of Belmont and San Carlos, and you’ll see something we’re always talking about with our clients:

The right moment isn’t always the first moment. But when it arrives—you’ll know.

Final Thoughts

Two full moons in one month are rare. So are perfectly timed opportunities.

Whether you’re watching the skies… or watching the market…
May is a month to pay attention. If you’ve been thinking about making a move, we’re always here to help you recognize when your “blue moon” moment shows up.

Helping you make good decisions—when it matters most.

Our Signature

Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They have assisted buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond award, ranking among the top 50 agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California by RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or emailinfo@morganhomes.com

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook and on X.

This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice; it cannot replace advice tailored to your situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional familiar with your scenario.

BROKER | MANAGER | NOTARY

Where the Peninsula Meets the Horizon: Inside 205 Hillcrest’s Elevated Living Experience

205-hillcrest-san-carlos-bay-view-home.jpg

OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APRIL 18th & 19th 2:00-4:00

5 Bedrooms | 3 Baths | 3,148 ft² | 7,000 ft² lot | $3,200,000

Perched above the Peninsula, this is not a home that whispers—it unfolds. Light, air, and horizon become part of the architecture, with sweeping views from the San Francisco Bay to Mt. Diablo, shifting from crisp morning clarity to a warm evening glow.

An inviting front patio entry creates a sense of arrival before the home reveals itself in a series of thoughtfully designed spaces. A gracious reception room offers a moment to pause, then opens to a grand living room where walls of glass frame cinematic views and draw the outdoors in. 

The multi-level perimeter decking doesn’t simply wrap the home—it enhances the living experience. Each vantage point extenuates with views that evolve throughout the day, offering distinct settings for morning coffee, afternoon gatherings, and evenings under an open sky. A level rear yard with mature rose bushes offers a softer, more relaxed outdoor retreat.

Five generously proportioned bedrooms and three updated full baths, two private ensuites—one on the main level—provides flexibility for guests, extended living, or changing needs. The galley-style kitchen and dining area balance efficiency with warmth and features a KitchenAid® five-burner glass cooktop, Broan® Rangemaster stainless hood, GE® TrueTemp self-cleaning oven, LG® dishwasher, and GE®stainless French door refrigerator—all designed for reliable everyday performance.

Interior features include recessed lighting and real wood parquet flooring, adding texture and continuity. Additional amenities include a distinctive slate-style roof, a two-car attached garage and included washer/dryer. ADU potential on the lower level.

Moments from downtown San Carlos and Belmont, the location offers easy access to a vibrant mix of dining, shopping, commute routes and daily conveniences. With approximately 3,148 sq. ft. of living space on a 7,000 sq. ft. lot, it is also within the boundaries of Carlmont High, a California Distinguished School. 

This home balances presence with practicality.

  • Stunning views of the San Francisco Bay and Mt. Diablo
  • Generous five bedrooms, including two ensuites 
  • Three updated full baths
  • Multi-level perimeter decking with breathtaking views
  • Enticing patio entrance
  • Gracious reception room
  • Grand living room with stunning views
  • Galley-style kitchen adjacent dining room 
  • KitchenAid® Five-Burner glass stovetop
  • GE® True Temp self-cleaning oven
  • LG® Dishwasher
  • GE® stainless French door refrigerator
  • BROAN® Rangemaster stainless hood
  • Recessed lighting
  • Parquet hardwood flooring
  • Large level rear yard area studded with mature rose bushes. 
  • Two-car attached garage
  • Distinctive Slate-style roof
  • Washer & Dryer included
  • Close to downtown San Carlos and Belmont
  • Inside Carlmont High boundaries
  • Built in 1962
  • Living area 3,148 sf (per appraisal)
  • Lot Size, 7,000 sf (per County)
  • ADU potential

Thinking About Selling or Buying in this year? Here’s What We’re Seeing Locally

Bay Area Homes

As we move into the second quarter of 2026, we’ve been getting a lot of the same question:

The honest answer is—no one can predict it with certainty. But we can look at patterns, buyer behavior, and what we’re seeing on the ground to get a pretty good sense of where things are headed.

A Market Facing More Uncertainty

There’s a lot going on right now that’s influencing how people feel about making big decisions:

  • Interest rates have moved higher
  • The cost of goods and services continues to rise
  • There’s more global uncertainty than we’ve seen in a while
  • The job market is shifting
  • And consumer confidence, which had been improving, is starting to soften

Any one of these on its own doesn’t change the market much.
But when they all show up at once, people tend to take a step back.

How Buyers Typically React

In times like this, most buyers don’t panic—they pause.

Instead of rushing in, they take more of a “wait and see” approach:

  • They become more cautious
  • They look more closely at value
  • They’re less willing to stretch beyond their comfort zone

In other words, the most aggressive buyers start to step back first.

What This Means for the Market

So what does that look like in real life?

You’ll likely see fewer bidding wars.
Instead of 10–15 offers, it may be more like:

  • 2–5 offers on strong homes
  • And sometimes just one solid, well-qualified buyer

At the same time, buyers become more selective.

Homes that are:

  • Well-priced
  • Move-in ready
  • In strong locations

…are still going to do well.

Homes with trade-offs—or pricing that feels a little too aggressive—may take longer to sell.

And overall, price growth tends to slow.
Not necessarily decline dramatically—but level off or adjust modestly.

The “Flight to Stability” Effect

There’s also another dynamic worth mentioning.

In uncertain times, some buyers actually lean into real estate.
They’re looking for:

  • Stability
  • Something tangible
  • A long-term place to land

But even these buyers tend to be more thoughtful.
They’re not the ones overpaying—they’re looking for value.

Why the Bay Area Is a Little Different

The Bay Area has always had some built-in support:

  • Limited housing supply
  • A strong base of high-income buyers
  • Long-term demand for homeownership

That doesn’t make it immune to change—but it does tend to prevent more dramatic swings.

What We Expect Moving Through Q2

If current trends continue, the most likely scenario is a more balanced, selective market.

  • Buyers are still there—but more cautious
  • Competition still happens—but not as consistently
  • And pricing becomes more important than ever

The margin for error just gets smaller.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, this doesn’t eliminate opportunity—it just changes the approach.

The homes that are performing best right now are the ones that:

  • Are priced strategically from the start
  • Show well and feel move-in ready
  • Line up with what buyers are expecting today

Where we’re seeing challenges is when homes:

  • Start too high
  • Rely on past peak comps
  • Or assume buyers will stretch the way they did before

That’s where momentum can get lost.

The Wrap

The housing market isn’t disappearing—it’s becoming more disciplined.

And in markets like this, the difference between an average result and a strong one usually comes down to:

strategy, positioning, and timing.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are homes getting fewer offers?

Is the Bay Area housing market slowing down in 2026?

Are home prices expected to drop?

Is now a good time to sell in Belmont?

Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They have assisted buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond award, ranking among the top 50 agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California by RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or emailinfo@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook and on X.

This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice; it cannot replace advice tailored to your situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional familiar with your scenario.

BROKER OWNER | MANAGER | NOTARY

The Belmont Market Is Moving Fast — Are You Positioned to Take Advantage?

Belmont From Above

Belmont Housing Market: A Little More Choice — But Still Moving Fast

We’re about two-thirds of the way through the first quarter of 2026, and the early read on the Belmont housing market is coming into focus.

Inventory has opened up modestly. So far this year, 39 homes have come to market, compared with 34 during the same period last year â€” about a 15% increase. Currently, there are 31 properties in the pipeline, including 19 active listings available to buyers and another 10 “coming soon” homes preparing to enter the market. Eight properties are already pending.

At first glance, the increase in listings appears to be good news for buyers. And to a degree, it is — there are slightly more choices than there were a year ago.

But the market’s pace tells a more important story.

Homes that are going pending are averaging just nine days on the market. That’s a clear signal that new inventory is being absorbed quickly. In fact, the buyers we’ve represented this year have still found themselves in highly competitive situations. On the last two homes we pursued, each drew roughly 15 offers.

That combination — more listings, but very fast absorption — suggests that demand remains strong and pricing pressure is holding firm. If the market were softening, we would expect to see homes sitting on the market longer, more price reductions, and fewer competing offers. So far, none of those conditions are showing up in the data.

It’s still early, and there haven’t been enough closed sales yet to draw firm conclusions about pricing trends for 2026. But the early indicators point to a market that remains still seller-leaning, with motivated buyers acting quickly when well-prepared homes come to market.

The takeaway: Belmont buyers may have a few more options this year — but the window to act is still short, and competition hasn’t gone away.

What this means for you depends on your timing and your strategy.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in Belmont this year, the early trends suggest preparation and positioning matter more than ever. Sellers need to price and present their homes correctly to capture today’s fast-moving demand, and buyers need a clear plan to compete when the right property appears. If you’d like a quick, no-pressure review of your home’s current value, or a strategy session to understand your options in today’s market, feel free to reach out. We’re always happy to share what we’re seeing locally and help you make informed decisions about your next move.

About the Authors

Drew and Christine Morgan are the founders of MorganHomes, their independent brokerage based in Belmont. They also maintain a strategic affiliation with RE/MAX GOLD, combining the flexibility of an independent firm with the resources of one of the largest real estate networks.

As longtime Belmont residents and real estate professionals with more than 30 years of experience, they have helped generations of local families buy, sell, and make smart real estate decisions. Drew is also a Notary Public, providing additional convenience and support for clients when it matters most.

Their consistent performance has earned them RE/MAX’s prestigious Diamond Award, placing them among the top agents nationwide and among the top performers in Northern California.

If you have questions about the Belmont market or would like to discuss your situation, you can reach them at (650) 508-1441 or info@morganhomes.com.

For ongoing insights about Belmont real estate, local market trends, and community updates, you can subscribe to this blog or follow MorganHomes on Facebook and X.

Disclaimer

This article is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as real estate, legal, tax, or insurance advice. Because every situation is unique, we recommend consulting with a qualified professional, like us, to understand your specific circumstances.

MorganHomes
Broker | REALTORS | Notary

DRE#01124318 | 01174047

Are Belmont Homes Still Getting Multiple Offers in Today’s Market?

The Hidden Opportunity: Why Some Belmont Sellers Are Winning Right Now

You may have heard that higher interest rates have “slowed the market.” But here in Belmont, the story on the ground looks very different.

Just last week, a home on Francis Court — where we were writing an offer for our buyers — received 27 offers. That’s not a slowdown. That’s serious demand.

What’s Really Driving the Market?

The biggest factor today isn’t interest rates — it’s low inventory.

Many homeowners are staying put because they have low mortgage rates or aren’t sure where they’d move next. The result? Fewer homes for sale. And when a well-prepared home in a good Belmont location hits the market, buyers don’t have many options — so competition can be intense.

Today’s Buyers Are Serious

Buyers right now are:

  • Well qualified
  • Well funded
  • Focused on the long term

When the right home comes along, they act quickly — and often aggressively.

But here’s the key:
Not every home gets multiple offers.

The homes that win typically have:

  • Smart, realistic pricing
  • Strong preparation and presentation
  • Clear value compared to recent sales
  • A desirable micro-location (flat streets, walkability, commute access, etc.)

In today’s market, strategy matters more than ever.

The Hidden Opportunity for Sellers

Because inventory is so limited, prepared sellers currently have:

  • Less competition
  • Highly motivated buyers
  • Strong negotiating leverage
  • The potential for multiple offers

The Francis Court property is a perfect example of what happens when strong demand meets limited supply.

Should You Wait for Rates to Drop?

Many homeowners ask this question.

The reality is: when rates fall, more buyers will enter the market — but so will more sellers.
That means more competition.

Right now, the environment is unusual:
Strong demand with limited competition.

Belmont Is a Local Market

Home values here depend on the details — street location, lot usability, expansion potential, commute access, and neighborhood feel. Understanding how buyers see these factors often makes the difference between a good result and a great one.

Curious What Your Home Might Do Today?

The headlines may sound uncertain, but locally, well-positioned homes are still performing very well.

If you’re wondering what your home might sell for — or whether this market makes sense for you — we’re always happy to provide a local, no-pressure analysis.

Because in today’s Belmont market, success comes from preparation and strategy — not timing the headlines.

Enjoy the day!

Drew & Christine Signature


Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They have assisted buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond award, ranking among the top 50 agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California by RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or emailinfo@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook and on X.

This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice; it cannot replace advice tailored to your situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional familiar with your scenario.

BROKER | MANAGER | NOTARY

A Tale of Two Cities—How Strong Is the Market? A Local Look at Belmont, San Carlos & San Mateo County

Tale of Two Cities

Belmont– Local Market

Belmont is still a seller’s market, but pricing accuracy matters more than it did last year.

  • Homes are still selling quickly, but not every home is automatically getting multiple offers.
  • Buyers are more selective—they’re paying premiums for:
    • Walkable neighborhoods
    • Updated homes
    • Large Lots & Views
    • Good school access
  • Overpricing now leads to longer days on market, which didn’t matter as much in 2024.
  • Well-priced homes are still selling at or above list price, just with fewer “emotion-driven” bids.
  • Inventory remains very tight, which continues to protect values.

Belmont hasn’t softened—it’s just gotten smarter.

San Carlos – Local Market

San Carlos is one of the strongest-performing markets on the Peninsula right now.

  • Demand remains extremely strong, especially near:
    • Downtown
    • Laurel Street
    • Good elementary schools
  • Prices have continued to rise, even as other cities leveled off.
  • Homes that show well and are priced correctly often sell fast and above asking.
  • Buyers are still willing to stretch for:
    • Turnkey homes
    • Flat lots
    • Walkability and lifestyle
  • Inventory is near zero, which is keeping upward pressure on prices.

San Carlos is following in Belmont’s footsteps, doing what Belmont did a year ago.

Belmont

  • Median price essentially flat: $2.423M â†’ $2.418M
  • $/SqFt down: $1,308 â†’ $1,244
  • Still selling over list (106%)

Stabilizing after a blow-off year—still competitive, but more rational.

San Carlos

  • Median price: $2.41M â†’ $2.65M â¬† +10%
  • Sales volume up +21%
  • Inventory remains near zero

One of the strongest appreciation stories in 2025.

San Mateo County – Big Picture (YOY)

Sales Activity & Volume

  • Closed sales:
    • 2024: 3,569
    • 2025: 3,822 â¬† +7.1%
  • Total sales volume:
    • 2024: $9.07B
    • 2025: $10.10B â¬† +11.3%
  • The market didn’t just rise in price—it expanded in depth. More transactions and more dollars moved through the system.

Pricing

  • Median sale price:
    • $1,950,000 â†’ $1,980,000 â¬† +1.5%
  • Average sale price:
    • $2.54M â†’ $2.64M â¬† +4.0%
  • Median $/SqFt:
    • $1,157 â†’ $1,146 â¬‡ -0.9%

2026 Market Outlook: What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

The Belmont, San Carlos, and broader San Mateo County markets enter 2026 from a position of strength and stability, not excess. The data from 2024 and 2025 show steady demand, limited inventory, and pricing that continues to be supported by fundamentals rather than speculation.

For sellers, this means the market is still favorable—but no longer forgiving. Homes that are well prepared and accurately priced from the start are likely to attract strong interest. Overpricing, which buyers tolerated in prior years, is increasingly leading to longer market times and missed opportunities. In 2026, strategy and presentation will matter as much as location.

For buyers, conditions are improving modestly. While inventory remains tight, competition has become more measured. Buyers who are well-qualified, decisive, and realistic are finding more opportunities to negotiate—especially on homes that miss the market’s initial pricing window.

Looking ahead, price growth is expected to be moderate rather than explosive, with neighborhood-specific performance playing a larger role than countywide trends. Markets like San Carlos may continue to show momentum, while markets like Belmont are likely to reward consistency and long-term value.
This is shaping up to be a market that favors informed decisions over emotion, rewarding those who understand timing, pricing, and local nuances.

Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They have assisted buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond Award, ranking among the top 50 agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California, according to RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or emailinfo@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook and on X.

This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice; it cannot replace advice tailored to your situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional familiar with your scenario.

BROKER | MANAGER | NOTARY

Real Estate Boom: San Mateo and Belmont See Surge in Home Prices and Sales in 2024

“We’re seeing the strongest market conditions since the beginning of 2022…”

Continue reading

Housing Market in Crises as a Stand-Off is Looming

Following our local real estate market is a lot more interesting when it’s in a state of flux. Coming out of the Great Recession in 2012, when home selling activity began to pick up dramatically after a five-year hiatus, we finally had some interesting news to report.

Since then the meteoric rise in home values and bidding wars have been the story for the past 10 years, with only minor seasonal fluctuations.

But in April of 2022 that all changed. With a recession looming, and stock portfolios dropping as fast as interest rates are rising, there’s been a sizable shift in real estate activity.

But exactly how have these forces altered the home selling landscape?

The answer is it depends on who you ask. For buyers they are in the arms of a welcome change in the level of competition, but the throes of an unwanted increase in their mortgage payments.

Many sellers on the other hand are suffering from the seven stages of grief, but can’t seem to get past the first stage—denial. No one wants to admit they may have timed the market wrong and missed the home selling peak, instead they’re hanging onto rosier days—ignoring the changing landscape around them. This manifests itself in sellers hiring agents who will tell them their home is worth a price that it used to be, in order to secure a listing, only to have their home languish on the market for months and suffer multiple price reductions to no avail.

To help put the market shift into perspective, in 2021 only two homes were pulled off the market between May and October 1st. During the same period this year, that number rose to 13—a 550% increase in homes which did not sell.

In a recent blog we discussed how buyers who are clinging to the notion that higher interest rates will bring down home values further, could well be making a dangerous miscalculation. The smart move is to jump in with the low competition and purchase a home before rates rise further. As we mentioned in this post, the decrease in home values cannot begin to help buyers when interest rates are rising at a faster pace.

Looking at homes sales for August 2021 as compared to august this year, the forces that have changed the market have had less of an impact than would be expected.

Simply looking at the median home price for all of San Mateo County—and even drilling down to the local level in Belmont—the lack of change seems at odds with what is occurring. This can likely be explained that homes which are priced well are still receiving the attention they deserve. 

Note though that the median price per square foot dropped in both markets, while the size of homes selling rose—meaning that in 2022 you can get a home 8% larger in San Mateo County for the same price as one paid a year ago, and 17% larger in Belmont for essentially the same price.

The lack of new listings—down 27% in San Mateo County and 107% in Belmont, can be attributed for helping to keep the supply and demand levels more in equilibrium—given the diminished demand. We had anticipated this might be the case in a post we did back in April.

… Homeowners who refinanced or buyers who purchased a home when rates were at historic lows—in the 2-3% range, aren’t going to be selling their home and moving anytime soon. Sure, in California they can now carry their low property tax base, but they can’t carry their low interest rate—so many are going to stay put and there will be even less inventory than there has been, and which will once again put upward pressure on housing prices”.

Also, worth taking note of is that while the level of new listings has dropped considerably, the months of inventory—the amount of time it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the current pace of sales—has also risen.

A real standout in the statistics, that may tell us more than any other single stat, is the percent a seller received of their asking price—down 8% in San Mateo County and 14% in Belmont YOY—indicating that there is far less competition for the fewer number of listings.

For sellers, which way should you turn? Find an agent experienced in uncertain markets will keep you from the dreaded downward spiral of price reductions and delays on the market. Our best advice is don’t be another statistic, get out ahead of the pack and price your home reasonably and in accordance with the actual current market conditions—not what you want them to be.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Possible Higher Home Values and Interest Rates

How to put historical interest rates vs home values into perspective.

It’s hard to predict where internet rates will take home values, but as history has shown, it can be a Fool’s Game to try and play the market. Akin to the depiction in this post, the consequences can be painful.

Take for example Interest rates in August of 1993—they stood at 6.97%. By November of 1994—just 15 months later they were up 2.28% â†‘ to 9.25%. How did home prices react to the sharp increase in interest rates? The went up .52% points during the same period—no dramatic dip that made it worthwhile to try and wait out the effects of higher rates.

Here’s a real-world example. Let’s say one bought a $2,000,000 home today with a 4.5% interest rate. A monthly interest payment would be ~$1,000 less each month than if the rates go up to 5.5%. Here’s an on-line calculator to run scenarios.

What does $1,000 a month translate into purchasing power? In the above example, $200,000. Which means that if the rates go up to 5.5%, home values would have to drop in step with that increase 10% for one to just breakeven vs buying now at 4.5%. Why wait for a higher 5.5% rate to put downward pressure on home prices—which as history as shown, there’s no guarantee will happen.

In our observations, being in the sector of tech heavily weighted jobs, wherein many are reliant on stock options for their downpayment, any hit to the financial markets makes it unlikely that buyers will liquidate stocks to buy a home. In our world, that and job security (e.g. Consumer Confidence—which is up recently), has a greater impact on buying activity than interest rates.

______________________________________________________________________________

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 30 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomesand on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

How to Price a Home in the Bay Area or Gamble and Stand to Lose Everything

What you May Not Know About Pricing a Home

Pricing a home in an uncertain market is much harder than it has been in the past few years, where so long as a home was priced low enough, it would garner multiple offers and be bid up to what the current market could bear.

How This Effects Sellers

The reason multiple offers generate over asking bids is obvious—somebody wants to own that home and offering below or at the asking price is a waste of time with other competitive bidders.

But what you may not be aware of, is the discrepancy in the offers received. Frequently we see offers ranging from at the asking price to hundreds of thousands of dollars over asking. What nobody except the seller and their agent knows is that the spread between the highest offer and the second highest bidder is often $100,000 or more apart.

This is exactly why when pricing a home, you want to price it so that multiple bidders will compete, and the winner will have paid too much—more than anyone else was willing to bid. 

In investing it’s referred to as the Great Fool Rule Theory—and it works to a seller’s advantage. This is a study performed at Berkeley where they proved that bidding caused people to overpay. They call it The Bidder’s Curse aka The Winner’s Curse.

Here is an excerpt from their analysis linked above:

“An example that compares closely to our empirical analysis and research design is real estate auctions. Ashenfelter and Genesove (1992) document auctions of 83 condominium apartments in New Jersey, which — when the auction sale unexpectedly fell through — sold at significantly lower prices in face-to-face negotiations. The findings in this paper suggest that the large number of auction participants was a key determinant. It ensured the presence of overbidders.” â€” The Bidder’s Curse, Young Han Lee Ulrike Malmendier, May 13, 2008

The Rest of The Story

The recent sales we pulled in San Mateo County tell the whole story. We looked at all sales for homes listed after the market changed in April of 2022 to date of this writing, (July 29,2022).

The average days on market was 12, and the sellers received 106% of their asking price—not bad. But looking closer, we broke down the sales further to find a correlation between homes that received under their asking price and those which received over their asking price as compared to how long they were on the market, and the numbers tell the rest of the story.

Pricing a home too high means it will languish on the market, but it also means you will receive far less for your home.

Homes which were priced well, attracted multiple offers, and sold for over the asking price, in on average 9.5 days for 112% over the asking price

Homes which sold right at the asking price, sold on average in 12 days.*

Homes which sold for less than asking, took 21 days to sell, and the seller’s received only 93% of asking.

That represents a whopping 19% difference between a home that languishes on the market and one that sells quickly.

For the median price home in San Mateo County, that 19% deficit represents a loss of $361,000 in real dollars.

Price Reduction Correlation

Homes that sold over the asking price represented 70% of all sales. There were only five of those homes which had price reductions, and all sold over the original asking price once lowered. Our experience tells us that these homes probably received multiple offers after the price reductions which is the only rational explanation as to why they would be bid up beyond what a buyer could have purchased the home for prior to the reduction.

Homes that sold at the asking price represented only 4% of the sales, or 20 homes. (*We excluded another 25 homes that sold at the asking price as they were non-arms’ length transactions—sold off market in zero days).

Homes which sold under the asking price represented 26% of all sales, with 40% enduring price reductions averaging $213,00 in reductions of the asking price.

Pricing Your Home

As we’ve discussed in a prior post, many sellers make the mistake of focusing on two questions. How much do you charge and how much is my home worth—two of the least important questions.

To answer the first question, how much an agent charges may be inconsequential if they are the one able to net you that 19% more—It makes a full commission look paltry in comparison.

The second question of how much your home is worth is equally unimportant to ask your agent. What your agent needs to know is how to price it to attract bidders. What he or she thinks your home will sell for, doesn’t change the outcome of what you will receive. 

Often sellers fall into the confirmation bias trap. They hire an agent based upon the answer to these two questions almost entirely. The agents who tell them what they think their home is worth—or more—that is aligned with their preconceived notions, is the agent they subconsciously tend to be drawn to as they feel a common bond with a like-minded being.

Buying a Listing

This trap is what many agents leverage. Some agents will tell you what your home is worth based solely upon what they think you want to hear—or even higher. It’s called in our industry “Buying a Listing”. Sellers are of course delighted to hear that their home is worth more than they thought. Why? Because the agent told them so? But the agent is not buying their home—they’re just buying the listing—so their opinion is irrelevant and does more harm than good, as we have demonstrated. These agents represent some of the above 26% that promised a high price, and were forced to backtrack and convince the seller to lower the price until the home finally sells.

Failing to properly learn the right questions to ask an agent, is gambling with your biggest asset, and we all know the house will eventually take everything.

Here are a few more good reads if you are considering selling your home:

How to Stop Agents from Behaving Badly at Your Expense

Why Open Houses May Not Ever Have Been Necessary After All

Jeopardizing Multiple Offers

If you’re considering selling your home, contact us for an honest evaluation.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

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The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.