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Continue readingReal Estate Boom: San Mateo and Belmont See Surge in Home Prices and Sales in 2024
Housing Sector Finally in Balance?
It seems like forever since the housing market has been in balance. The downturn in 2007-2009 was followed in 2012 by an 11-year run up in Bay Area home values. Are we finally reaching equilibrium?
The first quarter of 2023 is in the books, and the housing numbers are in. If you’ve been listening to local news, one might believe the housing market is on a slippery slope and headed towards a trough.
The numbers sure make it look that way too, but is there more to report? The short answer is, there always is.
Looking at San Mateo County as a whole, here are the YOY (Year over Year) numbers comparing 2022 to 2023:
In every category the numbers appear to indicate that we’re in a declining or buyer’s market, but we’re not. Why?
Half of the homes are still selling for over asking, while the other half are selling for less, which is strongly indicative of a market in balance. Take a look at these graphs we prepare–they show the market is beginning to level out.
NEW LISTINGS
This number is down because sellers with 3% interest rates are reticent to sell their current home only to find their new mortgage on a replacement property closer to 6%. This decline was amplified by the historically inclement weather.
INVENTORY
This is a measurement of how many homes remained for sale at the end of the measured period. This is showing us there were fewer homes left over at the end of the quarter, which didn’t sell.
SOLD HOMES
The number of sold homes is actually very close to the number of fewer homes that were listed for sale. It’s like a car lot—if they have fewer cars on their lot to sell, they’ll sell fewer cars. In 2023, note that there were ~36% fewer homes available for sale, but only 31% fewer sales, which is consistent with the inventory of remaining homes being lower in 2023.
AVERAGE DOM
Homes are taking longer to sell. While there are fewer homes to choose from, there are also fewer buyers that are willing to purchase a home—creating for the first time in a long time, a balance in supply and demand.
A side note on why homes are taking longer to sell is twofold—sellers who are in denial that they missed the peak price point from 2022, and agents who have never worked in a more regular market, and will take any listing at any price also in denial that the market has changed.
The days of an on average six-day period of marketing are gone for the foreseeable future. In fact, six days on the market was also an anomaly. Last year at this time six days was all that was needed to sell a home with the incredible amount of urgency to beat rate hikes. In 2021 for example, the days on market during this period was 25. This year it’s at 32—higher, but again not astoundingly.
MEDIAN SALE PRICE
The median sale price is for the entire county, so what may be happening in your city or even neighborhood is probably different.
The YOY drop of 11.8% from 2022 and the Price per Square Foot drop of 11.4% are fairly close to each other indicting that this can be considered to be a reliable measurement of the drop in home values between these two periods. If these two categories were off by a substantial amount, it would indicate a shift to smaller or larger homes selling in the two periods. We frequently run into this type of shift when measuring small market samples in smaller cities and when looking at only one month of sales for example.
THE INSIDE SCOOP
Here’s where it gets interesting. While the media may be accurately reporting these numbers, they do not put them into perspective, which in some cases such as this, a whole new story emerges.
This is a classic example of a financial group trying to interpret the data and missing the mark on several key points.
In fact, the median homes prices are lower, and they should be, because they are being compared to Q1 in 2022 which saw the fastest run up in home values in the history of the Bay Area (see next paragraph for a deeper dive). We did an article on why this happened last year and predicted that this year would pale in comparison and exacerbate the apparent decline in values—which is exactly what happened.
We also went on to forecast that once we get past the May numbers in 2022—when the April sales of 2022 peaked and were reported—we may see an actual YOY increase in 2023 over 2022 as the summer and fall approaches, as that’s when in 2022 home prices began to decline.
LIST PRICE TO SALE PRICE RATIO—Making Sense of it All
The decrease in multiple offers has clearly has an impact on homes selling for over their asking price, as seen in recent, previous years.
While homes sold on average for 114% of asking in Q1 of 2022—that wasn’t normal—it was an anomaly.
It was due to the sudden demand in housing in 2022 fueled by the fear of looming interest rate hikes. Looking at the same period in 2022—January through April—homes sold for on average 106% of asking in 2021. In 2023 the percentage over asking was 101%—so eliminating the frenzied run up in 2022, the percent over asking is still lower than average, but by only 5 points instead of 11.
MONTHS OF INVENTORY—What does that mean?
The Months of Inventory statistic shows us, at the current rate of homes sales, how long it would take to sell the current inventory of homes.
A normal Months of Inventory, if we average San Mateo County’s inventory levels dating back to 1998, is 2.6 months. Nationwide wide they hover around six months of inventory.
During the financial crises of 2007-2009—from peak to trough the inventory levels of homes for sale in San Mateo County stood at 5.2 months.
In Q1 of 2022 they were only 1.3=2 months of inventory and that has bumped up to 1.7—still far below historical averages.
Locally, the story is much the same in our two of Belmont, but, since the sample size is so much smaller, the swings in statistical categories can appear skewed, and over or underrepresent the overall housing pattern in the Bay Area.
The Take-Away
- In San Mateo County, the housing market has slowed from its Q1 2022 peak.
- If the economy stays the way it is now, in Q2 the YOY numbers will be more similar.
- We expect to see demand increase for housing as buyers become accustomed to higher interest rates.
- We imagine that in Q3 the median home value may be similar to 2002.
- The historical inclement weather has kept a lid on new listings—we expect this to increase as weather improves. More homes for sale will keep a ceiling on home appreciation as the market shift deeper into buyer territory.
- The stats show the market shift in the buyer’s favor has created a more balanced housing market.
- There is no metric that compares to the financial crisis housing depreciation in 2007-2009
Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 30 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.
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The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.
Belmont Home Values Peak–August 2015
It’s very hard to stare at numbers that are counterintuitive to what you feel about the market around you. This is the case once again in Belmont when we compare last August to August of 2015.
This August felt really slow—like there was a pull-back in the market. Many of our colleagues are still commenting about how if just feels different—but the numbers say something else.
One can account for the lag between an offer date and closing to explain away part of this nagging feeling, since most of the homes which closed in August were sales consummated in July. August could turn out to be a slow month when we look at September closings next October.
Certainly the stock market vacillation has people on edge and the Federal Reserve’s non-stop droning about interest rate hikes has people feeling uneasy, and when people feel uneasy they tend to pull back or even freeze, absent a clear path through the valley of the unknown.
We’ll summarize this very quickly for you: (click on the picture for a larger image).
* Rinconada was our sale.
SALES—
The housing units sold over the two period was a dead tie at 24—so nothing to note there.
SIZE—
However the median size of a home which sold in the two periods was vastly different—as the homes which sold in 2015 were 450 sqft or 21.5% smaller and on lots 12% smaller.
MEDIAN PRICE—
That did nothing to dent the increase in the median home price, which rose another 20% year-over-year despite the homes were 21.5% smaller—that’s noticeable.
PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT—
We’d expect this to be higher, since smaller homes sell for more per square foot than their larger counterparts—and it was, 35% higher than last year.
So what’s the real median price increase if the homes are selling for 20% more and yet are 21.5% smaller? Let’s look at that difference of 450 sqft and multiply it by the amount at which homes are selling. To be conservative, we’ll use the smaller number a year ago of the larger homes—a median price per square foot of $665 x 450 = ~ $300,000, which we then add to the median price in 2015 of $1,517,500 to arrive at an adjusted median price of $1,817,500 or an adjusted 44% more year-over-year.
Looking at this from a different angle, what if we added the raw 20% year-over-year growth numbers and added to that 21.5% since the homes were that much smaller? We get 42.5% year-over-year.
Could it be that prices in August went up 40+ % year-over-year? No wonder the market feels like it’s slowing down. Home affordability is at its lowest point since the highs of 2009.
DISCLAIMER
Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441.
The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.
Drew & Christine Morgan did not necessarily participate in these sales.
Belmont Home Prices Crazy
Belmont Home Prices in March Are Off the Charts Hitting an All-Time High Water Mark
Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water—even if it was just to dip in your toe—wham—the market showed its full force and effect in March’s numbers.
[click on the image for a larger picture]
SALES
Dropped 32% from March 2013. There were only 15 sales this year as compared to 22 last March.
Why?
INVENTORY
Typically when we see fewer homes sell year-over-year, it’s because there are fewer homes to sell OR the market is changing. Looking at the inventory of homes for sale, this March there were 16 homes for sale and last March there were 14. There were 21 new listings last year and 22 this March.
If inventory levels are actually higher, but sales are down what’s going in?
MEDIAN PRICE
The median price skyrocketed year-over-year from $1,044,000 in 2013 to $1,328,888—a 27% increase in one year. The previous high median home price in Belmont was in September of 2013 when it stood for one month at $1,239,444–as one can see that’s a substantial increase and might easily put a damper on sales as fewer people can afford to buy the median price home.
Did larger homes sell in 2014 artificially buoying the median home price? Not at all. In fact, the size of the homes which sold in March were a tad but smaller than in 2013. The median price per square foot tells the same story as it rose 29% over last year to $746.00 per square foot.
In 2013 two homes offered price reductions and while four homes sold under the asking price, three sold at asking and 15 sold for more. This year none of the sellers had to lower their asking price and all but one home (listed by an out-of-area agent not familiar with Belmont values apparently) sold for less—every other home sold over the seller’s asking price.
PERCENT RECEIVED
How much over asking? This March sellers received on average 115% of their asking price compared to 108% last year—almost double the overbid amounts in just one year. Has competition ratcheted up a notch?
DAYS ON THE MARKET [DOM]
The time it took to sell a home in March dropped from on average 27 days last year to 12 in 2014.
When you hear the term unsustainable this is what they are referring to. But Belmont is not unlike other towns further south which have been either suffering from this affliction or enjoying the reward of appreciation (depending on your perspective)—for several years now. Palo Alto leads the appreciation pack and when prices get too out of balance buyers migrate to Menlo Park—then San Carlos—then Belmont—then San Mateo.
At some point the rate of appreciation will slow if for no other reason than buyers can no longer afford to buy the median price home. But in reality, nomadic instincts will kick in as buyers graze further north in search of one of our most basic needs—shelter.
SELLERS—if you’ve been waiting for the right moment to strike a “For Sale” sign in your yard—we may have reached the pinnacle of opportunity.
Disclaimer:
Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years’ experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.
The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.
Drew & Christine Morgan did not necessarily participate in these sales.
Belmont Housing Price Report – September 2010
September means fall has arrived and nowhere did we see more falling than in the number of home sales in Belmont for this time of year.
(click here for a full-sized image).
Here are the details:
MEDIAN PRICE:
Once again we had an increase in the median price over last September. The median price in Belmont for September 2010 was $865,000—an increase of 8% over last September’s $795,000. And this was once again mitigated (or negated) by the size homes which sold in the two periods.
This September the size home sold in Belmont was 1,900 Square feet compared to last year when it was only 1,600. The 300 square foot differential accounts for approximately $144,000 in price variance if you multiply it based on the $480 per square foot that homes sold for over the two periods. Effectively the size home which sold was 18.75% larger but only garnered an 8% higher price tag.
Does this mean that Belmont’s median price is still dropping? Well it certainly means it has dropped in the past two months—but price drops this time of year tend to be seasonal.
NUMBER OF SALES:
Sales of homes in Belmont last month were down by 33% from a year ago. And a year ago sale were down from normal levels. Now 33% wouldn’t mean a lot if we had only three sales a month but we had 18 last September and only 12 this year.
This is no doubt a hangover from the housing stimulus bill that ran out earlier this year and attracted many of the buyers to move earlier in the year.
PRICE STABILIZATION:
It could be temporary, but of the homes which sold, three sold for on average $10,000 over asking (even though one only sold for a dollar more), two sold for the seller’s asking price and seven homes sold for less—by on average $66,000. Compared to last year when no homes sold for more than the seller’s asking price, eight homes sold under and 10 sold at the asking price, this is relatively good news.
DOM:
The time it took to sell the homes increased over last year—up from 45 days to 73.
INVENTORY:
With 64 homes available for sale in Belmont right now prices are sure to remain flat unless buyers begin to feel more comfortable with their job stability, or in some cases, the prospect of a job at all.
PERCENT RECEIVED:
Once again the numbers are down from last September. A year ago the seller could happily receive on average 98% of their asking price and this year that number dropped to 96.65%.
September is typically a month that begins the fall push for housing before buyers go into their winter hibernation mode with brisk sales and sellers typically getting more for their home than during the summer months. This was clearly not the case this September so it will be interesting to see how the October numbers come in.
There are a lot of buyers still sitting on the fence. It’s our opinion that at the end of the year Belmont’s median price will be higher than in 2009 and we expect that to continue at a tepid pace through 2011.
If you are a buyer thinking of making a move, statistically the winter is the best time to snag a deal. Call us is you’d like to get started early!
Belmont, Ca Home Sale Report for February 2010
We’ve been swamped with business this year and with rolling out our new web page to boot we are just now able to settle down and look at February’s homes sale price figures for Belmont. Believe me, we’re dutifully aware that March’s numbers are available soon and we promise to deliver them in a more timely manner.
(Click image for a full size picture)
MEDIAN PRICE
Once again the median price in Belmont was, in practicality, unchanged. Those of you who follow our posts know we endeavor to portray the most accurate market snapshot as possible. In doing so, we not only report the median price statistic as per our MLS system, but we delve deeper to see if larger or smaller homes sold which can dramatically change the results in a small market sample, such as Belmont, which has relatively few sales each month.
Even though the median price dropped from January’s $850,000 to $800,000 in February (5.9%), the size homes which sold were significantly, (8%) smaller.
Year over the year, the median price home sold in Belmont went from $714,500, last February, to today’s February price of $800,000—an increase of 12% with an increase of the size home sold in the two periods of 14%. Viewed from another perspective, the median size home dropped about 2% year over year in the same periods.
DOM
Homes are still staying on the market for a longer than usual time. This February it to 81 days to sell the average home as compared to 78 days last year. The first quarter of the year includes many homes left over from the winter months and we expect this time (DOM) to drop in the spring selling season, as it typically does.
SALES
Ten homes sold this February as compared to just six last year. Of the ten sold, two sold over asking, two sold at their asking price and six sold for less than asking.
In perspective—
The local market continues to be riding a rollercoaster fueled by uncertain feelings on the part of many buyers and sellers. Some buyers are jumping back into the market with both feet and offering sellers thousands of dollars over the asking price for highly desirable properties, and others are sitting on the sideline thinking there could be another double dip.
March’s numbers are due out in a few days which we predict will show more of the same, with the number of sales increasing and the median price continuing its unremarkable recovery.
Belmont – Market Report for December 2009
It’s official. Belmont’s median home price dropped 9.4% last year from $920,000 in 2009 to $833,827 in 2009.
(click on the graph to enlarge)
There’s not much good news in the way of these numbers which would hint that the market is improving anytime soon with the exception of the “months of inventory†(*see below).
There seems to be a pervasive attitude within the real estate community to spin statistics any way possible to portray a happy healthy market but in reality real estate is experiencing some of the most volatile years in our nation’s history. And things are not stabilizing at any appreciable rate; in fact, many indicators point to just the opposite. That doesn’t mean you should no longer consider real estate a viable investment. It just means that you need to go in with eyes wide open. The recent market corrections (and even over corrections as in the case of many areas) has opened up some opportunities which may not be seen again for years.
The government is spending millions of dollars to keep interest rates low and offering tax incentives to spur homeownership. These conditions are temporary and indeed the end of special incentives may mean things get worse before they get significantly better.
Looking at the year-end numbers for Belmont, CA we see several statistics which put in perspective the tumultuous year real estate had in 2009.
The time it takes to sell a home in Belmont increased this year from 39 days in 2008 to 56 in 2009.
The amount a seller received of their asking price dropped from 98% in 2008 to 97% in 2009.
The median sale price dropped 9.4% in 2009.
*Month’s Inventory seems to be one bright spot in a rather dark spreadsheet.
The months of inventory refers to the time it would take to sell the remaining homes listed for sale at the current sales pace. Two major factors in this are how many homes are selling each month and how many new listings are coming on the market. The lower the months inventory the fewer homes there are to choose from and price stability invariably creeps back into the market.
Last December the three month moving average for Belmont stood at 5.47 months and this December that had fallen to only 3.61 months.
There were slightly fewer listings this year (10) and 18 more sales which accounted for this favorable statistic.
Read our next post on the buying opportunity window which is closing fast.
Belmont – June 2009 stats
It’s easy to see the numbers for June are much better for sellers than they were in May. Almost all indicators are up signaling a stronger market for sellers in June as compared to last month (click on the chart to see a full size version).
Looking at the same period over last year a similar pattern arises. Almost every indictor is in the seller’s favor.
More homes sold this June and at a faster rate. The percentage the seller received was a healthy 98% of their asking price. The month’s inventory—the time it would take to sell all of the homes currently listed at the current pace of sales—has dropped to a healthy 3.1 months—far below the national average of over 10 months.
Of course there’s one nagging indicator which isn’t easily seen, and certainly not reported by real estate groups or even the media. Although the median price is up in June 4.5% over May, the size home sold in June was a whopping 17% larger. Over the same period last year, the difference is even more staggering. So even though the median price is essentially the same as it was in June of 2008, the size home you get for you money has increased 25%.
What this all means is buyers are getting better deal this year than last.
Why then is the percent the seller received of their asking price higher than it was last year? Probably because sellers are pricing their homes more realistically; and although they are getting closer to their asking price as a percent, in real dollars they are receiving far less.
Looking at San Mateo County as a whole we see the same positive statistics. More sales, higher median price, fewer days on the market and less inventory. What is not available for the entire county is the median size home sold so we really have no idea if the median values are rising, or simply larger homes are selling. We tend to believe it’s the latter.
| May-09 | Jun-09 | Δ from May | Jun-08 | Δ from '08 | |
| Median | $840,000 | $878,000 | $38,000 | $877,000 | $1,000 |
| DOM | 46 | 25 | 21 | 43 | 18 |
| Month's Inventory | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Sales | 14 | 21 | 7 | 20 | 1 |
| Inventory | 62 | 62 | 0 | 61 | 1 |
| % Received | 98% | 98% | 0.0% | 91% | 7.00% |
| Median Size Home | 1,710 | 2000 | 290 | 1600 | 400 |
| Price per Sq. Ft. | $502.00 | $493.00 | $9.00 | $548.00 | $55.00 |