How the 2020 Election Might Hurt Your Home’s Value

Uncertainty in the minds of consumers has a direct correlation to their confidence level, hence the Consumer Confidence Index.

Would you head out on a sailboat cruise with dark gloomy clouds on the horizon? It would be foolhardy if you did. So it is with consumers, navigating the waterways of life. Any unknown or uncertainty, whether it be economic, political, or personal, is enough to cause consumers to sit on the fence, wait it out until calmer, more certain waters present themselves.

We’ve tracked the housing cycles in our area since the MLS began tracking numbers—1998. We’ve lived through recessions and successions of presidents. And one glaring anomaly that occurs in almost all elections cycles—be it presidential or mid-term, is that of a pull-back in consumer spending—specifically in our housing market. When we say almost, there have been some elections cycles, wherein the outcome was so predetermined, that we sailed right over those choppy waters without so much as a glitch of market flutter—think back to three recent presidents that had two successive terms—Clinton, Bush and Obama.

But the 2020 presidential election seems to be shaping up to be a squall to stay with the high-seas metaphor. Not because Trump won’t enjoy a second term, but rather because it remains less certain than in past elections that he will.

The Meyers Research Group posted this piece in October of 2019 forecasting the detrimental election time impact on the housing market come next year in November.

Our data, which we evaluated in the mid-term elections in 2018 during a market slow down, where we compared a tumultuous precursor to the 2016 presidential election to an uneventful 2017, demonstrated the housing slowdown which actually began in the preceding September—not November, as the Meyers article suggests.

While as any investment group will tell you, past performance is no guarantee for future results, just as that doesn’t apply to our sun rising each day and setting each night, we anticipate an on-cue repeat performance.

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Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

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The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

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