HOMES SALES TANK DURING SHELTER IN PLACE

When Critical Thinking Skills Vanish

We’re not sure what housing market the National Association of Realtors are referring to, but their headlines continue the “glass is half full” mentality which only serves to mislead the public in an effort to bolster their own organization—one which I might add, we are forced to be a part of, for better or for worse.

Take these headlines ripped from the email blasts by NAR just today…

This first one is a classic example. Sight unseen offers are growing from what? From when before the shelter in place order when no buyer in their right mind would buy a home sight unseen?

Then there’s this glass half full headline. All this tells me is that 75% of buyers do NOT accept the virtual buying scenario. And it’s not as if buyers really have a choice right now, so 25% took a leap of faith and dove in to the pool of house hunting no matter what is happening in the world.

What we do not know for certain yet, but soon will find out, is that these buyers are probably taking advantage of desperate sellers, and getting deep discounts on home prices. We’ve been hearing anecdotal stories from our colleagues of prices renegotiated downward immediately following the COVID outbreak.

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And lastly, the electronic signature platform Docusign’s CEO pronouncing that they have yet to see a slowdown. Wonder why? Since sales have dropped in San Mateo county by 78% this year compared to last year during the same period, from when the shelter in place order was initiated until today (one month).

Perhaps it’s because today, that is the ONLY way one can sign a contract, when before it was optional?

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Here are the facts. In San Mateo County during the period from March 17th until April 17th of this year, during the COVIT 19 shelter in place order, when it became illegal to show an occupied home, sales of single-family homes have dropped 78% over the same period in 2019.

The amount a seller has received from the few sales that have already closed, indicates that sellers are receiving on average 100% of their asking price. Not bad, all things considered, yet that’s a 5% downswing over the same period last year.

Truth be told, it’s too early to measure the damage that the mishandling of the COVID 19 outbreak will inflict upon the housing industry, or the economic health of the U.S. as a whole. 

We seem to be getting enough mixed messages from our leaders, and we would hope that the REALTOR trade organizations wouldn’t fall into the same trap, as if our fragile sanity relied upon drinking Kool-Aid from a glass always half full. 

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

2019 Housing Round-Up Let Down

2019 Housing Round-Up

We’re just stepping into the 2020 housing market and it’s too early to tell how the housing it will play out this year. That data typically starts to develop in February-May, as buyers come out of winter hibernation and begin looking at homes in earnest. And with the better weather on the horizon, sellers are more inclined to put their home on the market.

These two forces converge each year to dictate the supply and demand balance, thus determining the strength of the market for sellers, or advantages for buyers. A shortage of supply could continue to drive up values, while a shortage in demand would have just the opposite effect.

We had been indicating this trend may be on the horizon with this very blog back in 2018 with this post about lower returns.

San Mateo County results which provides a more macro-scale, illustrate this.

SAN MATEO COUNTY REPORT

The median home value dropped 1.3 percentage points YOY, which, in and of itself is not an earth-shattering indicator, but the amount sellers received of their asking price is—it dropped 5% YOY.

The leftover inventory of homes for sale at year-end grew 22%, while the number of new listings YOY dropped 6.24% and sales dropped 3.1%. It also took six more days to sell the average home.

BELMONT HOME REPORT

Being a much smaller market sample, the data is less reliable than looking at the entire county, but by examining the entire year—rather than an isolated YOY comparison for each month, the data spikes and troughs tend to somewhat smooth out.

In Belmont, home sales dropped 6.35%, new listings dropped by 10.65%, the percent a seller received down 6%, the median sale price—dropping 4.26%, and the DOM, or time it took to sell a home, up, 30%.

The housing market had a tumultuous end in 2018, and yet comparing the year-end results for 2018 and 2019, we can see that this balance shifted even further away from the unsustainable and feverish seller’s market of the past seven-year bull run, to a more normal, balanced market. We’re seeing the pendulum move from that of a seller’s market, to a more evenly balanced market in full swing.

If you want to know what we believe may very well be in store for us in 2020, read our newest blog post on Election Year Jitters—How it will Effect the Market.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomesand on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Home Sales Slower in 2019

Last year ended with much indecision regarding the future of our local housing market, and since there are typically fewer sales at the beginning of a new year, we thought it prudent to compare the first two months of 2019 to last year at the same time to better understand the state of our current market.

On an empirical note, we’ve sold all of our listings his year at our same pace—11 days on the market, but with fewer offers. All have sold over the asking price, but not for as much as in recent years past.

MEDIAN PRICE

This is always a good indicator of what the rest of the stats might reveal because if prices are down, so too typically is everything else.

2018 Median Home Price   $1,697,750

2019 Median Home Price   $1,649,000

Change =                               $48,750 or 3% drop YOY

*NOTE: The size of homes selling in 2018 were on average 9% larger which could indicate an increase in the home prices, not a decrease year-over-year.

HOMES SALES (Units)

2018                           20

2019                           13

YOY Change =          7 or 54% Decrease in sales in 2019 so far

PERCENT RECEIVED OF THE ASKING PRICE

2018                           114

2019                           102

YOY Change =          12% Less over asking in 2019

While sales in 2019 to date are slower than 2018, homes are on the market for about the same time—14 days.

And though sellers are taking offers that as a percentage are less over their asking price than in 2018 by a whopping 11%, in real dollars they may be ahead of where we were one year ago.

With the inclement weather, buyers may have perhaps had less motivation or incentive to go out and look at homes, but virtually the same number of new listings came on the market in both years during this period, and thus sales declined so the “Months of Inventory”, or the tine it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales, has gone up dramatically from .9 months in February of 2018 to 1.3 montsh this year—though still historically very low. If more inventory (homes for sale) develop, prices could see further erosion in home values.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomesand on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Waterdog Tavern in Belmont-What’s in a Name?

Waterdog Tavern

We were delighted as were many Belmont residents with the opening of a new restaurant, Waterdog Tavern in the Carlmont Village Shopping Centre last year. This past Spring, they opened the spacious outdoor area for sociable dining in a “dog friendly” environment, and we now visit frequently with our dog, Wyatt.

If you see us outside with this friendly little guy, stop by to say hello!

One of the questions we often hear: Where did they get the name Waterdog Tavern?

Since Belmont is our home, and we’re quite familiar about our local history, we knew at once where they got the clever name. We asked the owners, Toby and Anne, who often get asked the same question, to weigh in for our readers about the backstory of why they picked the name they did. Enjoy!

Toby McMillan (Owner):

Our family moved to Belmont from Sacramento in 2006. Not long afterwards Anne & I were strolling through Carlmont Village for the first time, when we came upon the outdoor area where the old Carlmont Nursery used to display their huge selection of Japanese Maples. We both remarked how beautiful the space was, and hoped that someday the adjacent restaurant (Hola!) might make arrangements to serve food & beer in the outdoor space – a few picnic tables would be great. I remarked, not very seriously at the time, that if it were ever possible to get both of those spaces, we should jump on the chance.

Fast forward to the Fall of 2015. After seriously searching for a couple of years for the right space to open a new restaurant that had outdoor seating and great parking, Carlmont Nursery and Hola! decided to close their doors within a month of each other. We pinched ourselves that two spaces had become available simultaneously and set out to create a casual, comfortable, warm, inviting restaurant, where the community and those traveling by The Village could gather to enjoy great food & drinks – The Tavern concept was born. Now…what to name it?

We had come up with different names for other concepts, but they were all location specific and would not work with what we had planned for this restaurant. As Belmont residents, we wanted the name to reflect the surroundings and the casualness of the concept. One day I was talking to a friend, and they mentioned they had taken their dog for a walk at Waterdog Lake, and a light bulb went on: Waterdog Tavern! Waterdog Lake is not only a long time Belmont landmark, but is known by folks up & down the Peninsula. To add to that, we had already begun tossing around the idea of making the Beer Garden dog friendly, and with so many local residents walking their dogs at Waterdog Lake on a regular basis it seemed a perfect fit.

Now with that being said, we are aware that the name of Waterdog Lake has nothing to do with dogs, but was coined because the lake (officially named Notre Dame Lake) used to teem with salamanders, and ‘waterdog’ is a salamander nickname. Anne has fond childhood memories of spotting waterdogs in her Grandma’s fountain in Belmont. Having made the decision to make the Beer Garden dog-friendly, we came up with our ‘Shaking Dog’ logo as a bit of a play on words. A recognition of all of the waterdogs that we all know and love, including our Australian Shepard, Buddy… We mean no disrespect to salamanders and have enjoyed sharing our story with guests!