A LOOK AT 2021 HOUSING AND WHAT LIES AHEAD IN 2022

Unless you’ve been living under a rock the past two years, you’ve no doubt heard that home values climbed their assent into the stratosphere.

Stratosphere

But as local agents for over 25 years, even we have a hard time wrapping our heads around the staggering numbers.

You may have also heard that there’s “no inventory”. Well, that’s not exactly true.

Then what’s causing the spike in prices? High demand, not lack of supply—unlike the overall economy that’s suffering from a lack of supply and high demand.

Comparing the annual number for 2020 to 2021, we’ll start with the inventory of homes for sale.

The number of new listings that came on the market in 2020 was 234 in 2020 and 249 in 2021 which is an increase of 6.4% more homes available for sale in 2021. Then why is everyone talking about low inventory? Because sales went from 183 units in 2020 to 254 in 2021—a whopping 38% increase—so there are no homes left to buy.

One might ponder, “How can that be?” If you only have an increase of 6.4% in new listings, how can you have 38% more sales. The answer is everything is selling in 2021 while in 2020 some of those new listings never made it into escrow.

That’s evident in the days on market, which dropped 45%, from 20 days to only 11, and the percent a seller received over the asking price climbed from 105% in 2020 to 114% in 2021. 

Another indicator of the scant number of homes available at any given moment is the “Months of Inventory” statistic, that measures how long it would take to sell all of the available inventory at the current rate of sales. That dropped from a meager .4 months, to an almost immeasurable .1 month, (overall, the U.S. stands at around six months of inventory at any given time).

What effect did this have on home values? Nothing, but it had a lot to do with home prices. They hit their highest level in history recording a median home price of $2,245,000 up from $1,888,000—a 19% increase YOY and a 28% increase in the past two years—while the size of homes selling in the last two periods stayed statistically similar at 1,968 and 1,962 square feet respectively. 

This is an article we did back in 2018 on the supposed crest of interest rate hikes.

There is some cooling off of the astronomical climb in prices as noted by the Case-Shiller study for the Bay Area’s metropolitan area, but that may not reflect our local hot spot trends in the mid-peninsula.

What to Watch Out For

Rising Interest Rates

Rising interest rates may give buyers some relief from a super-heated market, may also serve to quell their purchasing power while softening prices. The irony is just when buyers may be able to compete in the market, even if they were to pay less for a home, they’ll end up paying more in interest in their loans.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomesand on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Critical Steps to Financial Planning

Financial planning is an integral part of any successful portfolio.

We don’t pretend to offer financial advice, but we do offer real estate advice and the two often overlap.

For example, every two years a married homeowner filing joint tax returns can sell their primary residence and enjoy the first $500,000 of capital gains tax free. We’d be remise if we didn’t remind those to whom we’ve sold homes about this option to keep more of their equity in their own pocket.

Of course, we realize that most people don’t move every two years just to save on capital gains. 

First, homes don’t appreciate that much in two years to realize the savings, and people get entrenched in their neighborhood, while others just love their house and have no plans to move, but failing to plan ahead, could cost one hundreds of thousands of dollars.

When Might One Consider this Option?

If you have lived in your home in the Bay Area for more than five years you’ve probably already surpassed the $500,000 capital gains abatement threshold. 

Are you outgrowing your home? With interest rates are still at historically low levels, now might be an ideal time to consider a move up into the space you need.

If you’re retired or near retirement and would like to downsize, selling your home while the market is at record highs might be the time to employ that exit strategy you’ve been considering.  Afterall, when the last market correction occurred it took 7 years for the median home price to return to the previous high. Seven years is a long time to postpone retirement just to wait for home prices to rebound to current levels.

Worried about higher property taxes on a larger home? The recently passed Proposition 19 in California just might help mitigate the hit of higher property taxes with the ability to carry your existing low tax base to your replacement property and pay only a small increase if buying a more expensive home. 

If you’re downsizing, you can carry your existing tax base without adjustment.

We’re here to help answer any of your questions on how to make a move possible if you choose to do so.

If you have questions about tax implications or estate planning please seek advice from your attorney, CPA or other professional.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.