Belmont Home Sales Drop, But Values Rise

Any way you slice this month’s statistics for Belmont home sales, seller’s really made out this October.

October is historically not a great month for home sales, but in recent years with warmer fall weather, it’s been possible to market homes well into the winter months.

Let’s look at the numbers for October 2015…

Belmont Home Sales October 2015
Belmont Home Sales October 2015-Click on the image to enlarge.

 

SALES

Belmont home sales (the number of homes sold), was down 24% year-over-year; down from 21 in 2014, to 16 in 2015. A 24% drop seems like a lot, until you realize only five less homes sold.

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

Belmont’s median home price rose 19% over last October, and was up considerably from the prior month of September.

The median home price in Belmont now stands at $1,546,500. To put that large number into perspective, it has only been surpassed twice before—both times earlier in this year—in May, and again last June. The all-time peak for Belmont’s home values occurred in June of 2015 when we reached a median home price of $1,629,000. Does this mean Belmont home values have peaked? Perhaps. The homes that closed escrow back in June sold for 5.3% more than now, and yet were 6.7% smaller. We’re going to temper that statement with the statistic that the summer price peak to October fall-off has occurred in six of the last eight years.

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

This is a check and balance against the median home price. If much larger homes sell during a given period, the median home price will typically yield a larger number as well, while the price per square feet which homes sell for will drop. It’s a quirky inverse relationship that manifests itself since larger homes tend to sell for less per square foot. This happens because land is not involved in the square foot equation,  and can frequently account for up to 50% of a home’s value.

For example, homes which sold in October of last year, were 2,000 sqft in size, compare to 1,905 sqft this year. They sold for $707 per sqft as compared to $877 this October, while the lot sizes remained fairly constant. This means that the median price for homes went up in real dollars—not just that larger homes sold this October.

DAYS ON THE MARKET (DOM)

In both years, it took on average only 18 days to sell a home.

PRICE REDUCTIONS

In 2014, 14% of Belmont home sellers had to lower their asking price. In 2015 that number dropped to .6%–just over one-half of one percent.

OVER-ASKING OFFERS

In 2014 66% of Belmont homes sold for more than the seller’s asking price—this October that number went up to 87%.

The number of homes which sold at the seller’s asking price represented 14% of all sales in 2014 and none in 2015, while the homes which sold under the asking price dropped from 20% in 2014, to only 13% in 2015.

PERCENT RECEIVED

Of the homes which sold in Belmont this October, the seller’s received 109.5% of their asking price, contrasted to last October when they received 107.5.

As you can see Belmont housing market fared extremely well this October.

We are now into the ninth year of economic recovery, and the fourth year of the median home price increasing steadily in Belmont. The question we are being asked by many buyers is “are we at the peak”? This uncertainty in the market can cause buyers to hesitate and sit on the sidelines to wait for the next downturn. If that happens it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

We’re not saying that we believe we’re there yet, but one thing is certain, home values are at an all-time high and we won’t stay there forever.

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years’ experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

You can find them on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and also find them on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Fed Up Buyers Take Action

Fed Up Buyers Take Action

Buyers, tired of multiple offers, are forming an alliance in an effort to alter the current inequitable supply and demand of housing inventory. Known as Buyers Usurping Real Property, or BURP, Their grass roots movement is gaining momentum as their “just sit on the fence” attitude is resonating with other frustrated buyers.

Implicit in their long term goal is to bring real estate prices down and shift the market from a seller’s market to that of one which benefits buyers, by resisting the urge to compete in the housing market.

Ben Dover, the collation’s founding father and leader was quoted as saying, “Just say no to multiple offers. Sellers have had it their way long enough and frankly we’re tired of this”. He went on to elaborate, “The market should have shifted by now—we all have life plans and we need to move forward. We’re committed to remain in our rentals forever if need beSay No To Homes [rather] than purchase at today’s inflated prices”. Asked what he thought about the inflated rents, he responded, “Well, that’s just market forces at work isn’t it?”

Mr. Dover continued, “We’re confident we’ve got sellers with their backs to the wall. If we continue to resist the temptation to purchase a home, our movement will be a success. We plan on waiting out the winter market and spring into action next year, when our boycott will have created enough inventory and affordable housing for all.

Asked if he thought the actions of his devoted followers would be enough to alter the course of the housing market, Mr. Dover reasoned, “It had better we’re banking on it”.

Are Home Prices Rising Too Fast?

Are Home Prices Rising Too Fast? [re-blog]

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | MONDAY, APRIL 15, 2013Rising Home Prices

Some housing analysts are concerned that the sudden rise in home prices could make homes more unaffordable again if the price increases outpace income growth, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Average housing costs for home buyers who took out a mortgage were around 22.5 percent of average incomes, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. That is down from 38.5 percent in 2006, the peak of the housing bubble. The historical average is about 33 percent.

But with home prices rising in many markets and, in some, rising at a faster pace than income levels, will more people soon be priced out of the market?

Housing analysts say that, for now at least, lower mortgage rates are offsetting the higher prices of homes.

Borrowers have seen their purchasing power rise by around 33 percent over the past four years due to the low interest rates, The Wall Street Journal reports. For example, a borrower can make a $1,000 monthly mortgage payment and qualify for a $222,000 mortgage at today’s low interest rates, compared to 2008 when they’d likely qualify for $165,000 when mortgage rates were around 6.1 percent — nearly double what they are today.

Borrowers are able to withstand home-price increases because of the low rates, not because household incomes are growing, The Wall Street Journal reports. If mortgage rates tick back up to the 6 percent or 8 percent range, homes may look overpriced relative to incomes, according to housing analysts.

Source: “Why Rising Interest Rates Could Eventually Curb Price Gains,” The Wall Street Journal (April 10, 2013)

Read More

Existing Home Sales and Prices Continue to Rise
What’s Really Driving the Rise in Home Prices?

Forget Everything You Thought You Knew About Home Values

It seems there’s even more pent-up demand for housing than there was after the 1989 housing crash. The lower than usual interest rates is undoubtedly a contributing cause for the frenzied activity but what else is creating the stratospheric rise in housing activity?

It’s becoming a common event for a home to have 10-20 offers submitted by enthusiastic buyers. One first time buyer home in San Mateo recently sold with 86 offers! We’ve been in bidding wars ourselves where the winning bid paid over $300,000 more than asking price for a modest San Carlos home.
It’s probably not a leap for you to then believe that the median size home in San Mateo County climbed 29% since last March?
How’d we come up with that 29%? We adjusted it to account for the size of homes selling during the two periods. Had we not done so the raw figures showed a 34% increase.
In March of 2012 the median home in San Mateo country sold for just $689,000 and this March the median home price was $925,000. So did a lot of larger homes sell this year? For sure the upper market is starting to get traction again but the median size home selling in 2013 was only 5% larger. So we roughly estimate that if one can get a 5% large home in 2013 but have to pay 34% more, than prices probably went up by a factor of around 29%.
Looking at the housing picture for San Mateo County for March of 2013 as compare to March of 2012, we see that there were 20% fewer home sales this year as compared to last.
Why the fewer home sales if the market is so hot? Because, simply put, there are fewer homes for buyers to choose from. In 2013 there were 20 percent fewer sales but 29 % fewer new listings-which explains the low inventory.
For buyers wanting to get into a home, it may be now or never as home prices appear to have skyrocketed almost 30% in San Mateo County just in the last year. If interest rates rise, that double whammy may just put home ownership out of the reach for many.

 

 

The information contained in this article is educational and
intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute
real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for
advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate
professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Buyer Incentive Programs – about to phase out (part 1 of 3)

 Hour glass with dollars With the real estate landscape changing almost daily it’s admittedly hard for Real Estate Agents and Lenders to keep up with all of the new programs and limitations.  
Recently, you may have heard on the news or read in the media about the $8,000 tax credit extension for first-time homebuyers. But are you aware you may easily qualify for it and not even know?

Our guess is probably not. That’s because there hasn’t been a great deal of quality reporting on what the income threshold is to qualify; and even if you knew that, what does that translate to in terms of purchase price?

The terms and conditions are too lengthy to cover in a blog and we’d lose half of our readers if we attempted, so here’s the stuff you need to know to see if you’re in the ballpark:

First, did you know that the income threshold nearly doubled last November? You may have heard that the program was extended, but a few other goodies were also thrown in including adding a $6,500 tax credit for recurring homeowners.

Who is eligible to claim the $8,000 tax credit?
First-time home buyers purchasing any kind of home—new or resale—are eligible for the tax credit. To qualify for the tax credit, a home purchase must occur on or after January 1, 2009 and on or before April 30, 2010. For the purposes of the tax credit, the purchase date is the date when closing occurs and the title to the property transfers to the home owner. However, the law also allows home sales occurring by June 30, 2010 to qualify, provided they are due to a binding sales contract in force on or before April 30, 2010.

What is the definition of a first-time home buyer?
The law defines “first-time home buyer” as a buyer who has not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase. For married taxpayers, the law tests the homeownership history of both the home buyer and his/her spouse.

How is the amount of the tax credit determined?
The tax credit is equal to 10 percent of the home’s purchase price up to a maximum of $8,000.

Are there any income limits for claiming the tax credit?
Yes. For sales occurring after November 6, 2009, the income limit for single taxpayers is $125,000; the limit is $225,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return.

So how much home could I buy at the maximum income levels?

The maximum purchase price is always $800k and a couple cannot make more than $225K per year.

If you’ve been looking to get into the housing market or are interested in a change in your current housing these tax incentives—a credit that does not have to be repaid and comes right off the top of your tax bill—along with historically low interest rates and home values that have dropped to levels seen back in 2000 may be just the incentive to get you to take action sooner rather than later. The government has been artificially keeping interest rates low and that along with the tax credit will soon end.

If you’d like more information were here to help. Call at (650) 508-1441 or e-mail us at infro@morganhomes.com today.

Next Blog Part 2. A look at interest rates and how they are your best friend—for now…

The information contained in this newsletter is educational and intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for tax or legal advice.

Peninsula home values continue to slide, but slower.

We thought we'd update this graph depicting the median price in several peninsula cities. Note that while in Q4 of 2007 the median price in Menlo Park was still rising, it had started to fall off dramatically in Daly City. Prices appear to have hit bottom–for now. The real estate landscape has changed so dramatically in the last few years that everything we knew about home values (and recoveries) needs to be reexamined. Could we be in for another double dip? Knowbody knows for for sure–one way of the other. It's safe to say that at some point a recovery will happen and next time it might pay to watch what is going on in other cities. Daly City seems to ge a good barometer as to where the market may he headed…

 

Real Estate Bidding–Are you a Bidder’s Fool?

As part of our Real Estate REVEALED series we answer another Frequently Unasked Question Unasked3 in our latest Podcast—how do you know when a home is priced right? In addition to this latest Podcast, we’ve added a web page that makes finding the entire series of archive issues in one place.

 

Podcasts

Drew & Christine Morgan

"Helping People Make Good Decisions"sm

(650) 508-1441

Click the mic for the web version of this page.
Thanks for visiting our Podcasts. Each week we offer a housing market update podcast on our blog at BeautifulMountainBlog.org as well as our series titled "Frequently Unasked Questions" where we tackle questions buyers and sellers should be asking but frequently aren't, and "Real Estate Revealed" where we discuss industry insider information. Enjoy and don't forget you can subscribe to our podcast stream to be automatically updated with any new releases by clicking on the orange RSS icon.

Pitfalls of Dual Agency

The Big Broker Myth

Staging your home for sale

(opens in a Media Player)

Note: For detailed market discussion visit our blog at:

BeautifulMountainBlog.org

Drew and Christine Morgan

(650) 508-1441

dmorgan@morganhomes.com

"Helping People Make Good Decisions"sm

Download Overbid

Belmont–Week in Review November 30, 2008

Belmont’s housing market is experiencing slower than usual seasonally adjusted sales as other harder hit areas in our nine county region are experiencing large increases. This sounds worse than it is as Belmont’s home values are holding up rather well.


Listen to our Podcast to get a review of November’s housing market nuances.


>Podcast Mic 


 


NEW LISTINGS


Sunnyslope 1309 Sunnyslope—2 Bed 1 bath 980 Sq. Ft. home on a 4,410 Sq. Ft. lot


This home won’t be toured until next Tuesday and there are no open houses listed as of yet There are some photos if you care to click on the address link. Side note—this home sold back in June of 2003 in multiple offers. It was listed at $599,000 and sold for $611,000. Listed By Charles Floyd, Help-U-Sell Floyd Realty


Alameda Belmont—3 Bed 2 Bath 1,040 Sq. Ft. home on a 6,300 Sq. Ft. lot. LISTED for $859,000 (sold back in July of 2002 for $580,000). This home has a bonus space which has been rented out for $800.00 per month. NO OPEN HOUSE LISTED. For some reason, the seller did not want the address disclosed but if you are driving around Belmont (headed towards San Mateo) you may recognize this home. Listed By Michael Vigo, Michael F. Vigo, broker.


PENDING SALES


Hallmark ours 2824 Hallmark Drive—4 Bed 3 Bath 2,400 +/- Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,298,900. This is of course our own listing and all contingencies have been removed. It’s now scheduled to close on December 5, 2008 and we’ll be sure and update you with the details then! Listed By Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates


 


 


 


3414 Beresford Ave. 2 Bed 1 Bath 890 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $649,000 and received an offer in 22 days. You can bet this home sold for less than the asking price—it needs a lot of work. Listed By Rosa De La Rosa, Regency Prime Properties Inc


3901 Christian Drive—3 Bed 2 Bath 1,660 Sq. Ft. home. Here’s the listing history for this home:












































































80841052

11/25/2008

Pend Rel

12/31/2008

03/31/2009

Intero Real Estate Services (NTERO.4)

$843,000


80841052

11/05/2008

Active

03/31/2009

Intero Real Estate Services (NTERO.4)

$843,000


80841052

10/21/2008

Active

03/31/2009

Intero Real Estate Services (NTERO.4)

$868,000


80823845

09/08/2008

Cancelled

12/24/2008

Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)

$899,000


80823845

09/08/2008

Cancelled

12/24/2008

Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)

$899,000


80823845

08/11/2008

Active

12/24/2008

Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)

$899,000


80823845

08/11/2008

Active

12/24/2008

Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)

$899,000


80823845

07/24/2008

Active

12/24/2008

Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)

$929,000


80823845

07/24/2008

Active

12/24/2008

Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)

$929,000


Wow—that was a long hard road to a sale. Listed By Ron J. Bonhagen Sr., Intero Real Estate Services


1909 Lyon—3 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,629 Sq. Ft. home. Another home with a long listing history:












































































































80845560

11/25/2008

Pend Show

12/10/2008

02/01/2009

Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)

$865,000


80845560

11/25/2008

Pend Rel

12/10/2008

02/01/2009

Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)

$865,000


80845560

11/16/2008

Active

02/01/2009

Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)

$865,000


80845560

11/15/2008

Active

02/01/2009

Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)

$869,888


80843341

11/10/2008

Cancelled

03/31/2009

Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)

$875,000


80843341

11/03/2008

Active

03/31/2009

Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)

$875,000


80836808

11/03/2008

Cancelled

03/29/2009

Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)

$889,000


80836808

10/27/2008

Active

03/29/2009

Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)

$889,000


80836808

10/27/2008

Active

03/29/2009

Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)

$879,000


80836808

10/10/2008

Active

03/29/2009

Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)

$889,000


80836808

09/29/2008

Active

03/29/2009

Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)

$912,000


80830767

09/29/2008

Cancelled

02/28/2009

Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)

$912,000


80830767

08/29/2008

Active

02/28/2009

Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)

$912,000


This was listed by Celeste Pagan in our Carlmont Associates office. Listed By Celeste L. Pagan, Carlmont Associates


SOLD HOMES


2812 Wakefield Drive—4 Bed 3 Bath 2,490 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $ 1,388,831 and lowered to $1,359,531 after 12 days and finally sold for $1,360,000 within 14 days of being reduced.


This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this intended to be specific to your situation-always consult a specialist who is familiar with the details of your situation.
Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended to be a representation of homes listed or sold exclusively by Drew or Christine Morgan or Carlmont Associates. Download WIR 11.30.2008