Local Housing Market Shows Signs of Change

BELMONT (AND BAY AREA) MARKET SHIFT

In order to know what changed in our housing market, one must understand that markets are constantly in flux, it’s just hard to see when you are in the middle of one—sort of like being in the eye of a hurricane. We looked at home sales in Belmont and compared the periods from January to September for 2015 and 2016. We’re always asked what’s going on in our market and we like to be armed with facts.

Most people want to know if the housing market is in the seller’s or buyer’s favor-if prices are going up, steady, or dropping. Buyers want to know as they are trying to decide if they should wait and see what happens with the market, or just move forward with life’s plans.

Anecdotally, many agents will tell you their opinion based upon their personal observations. If they had a hard time selling their last home they might tell you the market is “changing” and if their last listing flew off the shelf they might proclaim the housing market to be as robust as ever. But whatever people feel, the numbers don’t lie. They are an unemotional representation of what is occurring in a given market.

Let’s first discuss the market conditions. There’s a lot of hyperbole as to the state of our current housing market. Sellers are still in the mindset that they hold all of the cards, yet buyers are beginning to push back on prices. Sellers are receiving fewer offers, many have had to lower their asking prices, and homes are often times closing below the asking price—something that rarely happened from 2012-2015. This would suggest a shifting market.

Clearly, the sky is not falling, the shift is towards a more normal market, where homes sit on the market longer, and may sell above, at, or below the seller’s asking price. This long awaited market shift is not a correction, but rather a predictable and healthy move towards a more balanced and sustainable market. To be blunt, prices have risen to a level that the majority of buyers can no longer afford.

We first examined all of the home sales in Belmont that occurred in 2015 through August 31st in order to compare with the same period in 2016. We added no search filter other than the date range, since the larger the pool of sales, the more reliable the data.

Here are the data:belmont-analysuis-for-10-2016

We added an arrow to represent if the numbers went up or down as compared to 2015, and then rated with a “Thumb’s Up” icon for those parameters that showed little change or improved a bit over 2015.

Note that while the raw median home price dropped in 2016, you can see at the very bottom of this inset that we made an adjustment, since smaller homes sold in 2016 of the two periods we examined. So for example, although the size of homes which sold were 4.8% smaller in 2016, they only sold for 1.2% less. Could that be interpreted that the median price actually rose 3.6%? Our numerical calculation based upon price per square foot comes up with 1.5%. In either case, it’s a modest increase year over year at best.

On a macro-level, when we look at the San Francisco Metropolitan Statistical Area (SFMSA) as produced by Case-Shiller for Standard and Poor’s, which encompasses the counties of Marin, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco and San Mateo, one can see that there was a nominal 1% increase in home values between May and June alone. This lends more credence to our theory that home values are initially topping out in higher priced areas like the Mid- Peninsula.

It’s clear that a market shift has occurred. While the median home price reflects a marginal change year over year (YOY), in almost every category there’s a distinct shift towards a more normal market. There were fewer homes selling for more than the asking price and the ones that did sell over asking sold for 30% less than in 2015. There were more cancelled listings, and more price reductions for greater amounts. The inventory of homes for sale is growing—up from 0.3 to 0.7 months of inventory (still considered seller’s territory).

The month’s supply of inventory is the measure of how many months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of home sales. For example, if there are 50 homes on the market and 10 homes selling each month, there is a 5-month supply of homes for sale. The months of supply are a good indicator of whether a particular real estate market is favoring buyers or sellers. Typically, a market that favors sellers has less than 3 months of supply, while more than 6 months of supply indicates an excess of homes for sale that favors buyers.

Belmont still has less than one month of housing inventory but Foster City, also on the Mid-Peninsula, is currently running a housing inventory level of 3 months. What this means is that the market shift will no doubt continue until there’s a full blown correction. We could be years away from that happening, but we appear to be moving in that direction and we’re also moving into the slowest part of the season (winter), when seller’s typically net the least for their homes. In addition, if interest rates rise—and they should since they are at historic lows—that too will have a damping effect on home values in the near future.

How long will the new normal market continue? We’ll save that wild card question for other talking heads. Nobody really knows of course, and anybody that professes to know should scare you. However, the market appears to have hit a price threshold. As fewer and fewer buyers can qualify for the median priced home, more sellers will be getting less windfall profits like they did during the meteoric rise over the last three years.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Best of Tour Home Search for 10/13/2015

After a break away from touring the past few weeks it was good to get back out and see what new homes are available. We’ve noticed a slight cooling of the market which isn’t all that uncharacteristic of a fall market but this year seems slower than normal–it’s still early in the quarter though.

This is our best of tour home for Belmont and San Carlos today.

Belmont

This home on Lincoln Avenue is a real fixer upper but the potential is written all over the blueprints.

Situated on a large 12,700+ sqft lot according to the agent, all it needs is a renovation to make this home worth $2,000,000.Lincoln

SAN CARLOS

6 Pepper Lane in San Carlos is on the opposite end of the spectrum. This move-in condition home is ideal for a large household with 5 bedrooms, four full baths and 3,113 sqft of living space. Great sunset and twilight views as well as plenty of room for entertaining. Listed with our good friends Teri and Kristina.6 Pepper

10/15/2015 4:30PM-6:30PM

10/17/2015 1:00PM-3:00PM

10/18/2015 1:00PM-3:00PM

Call us if you are interested in either of these two unique opportunities…650-508-1441

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

You can find them on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and also find them on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

How to Avoid Capital Gain When Selling Your Home

 

Before we pass along any information regarding third-party tax information, we are required by the Bureau of Real Estate to disclose that we are not offering any tax advice as we are not licensed to do so.

That said. We’re passing along information which we are aware of from others, that may be beneficial to those seeking to defer or eliminate their Tax Reliefcapital gain tax on the sale of real property.

Here are several vehicles we have seen implemented to effect this outcome.

#1 PRIMARY RESIDENCE EXCLUSION

You probably already know that if you sell your home you may exclude up to $250,000 of your capital gain from tax. For married couples filing jointly, the exclusion is $500,000. Also, unmarried people who jointly own a home and separately meet the IRS threshold tests can each exclude up to $250,000.

The law applies to sales after May 6, 1997. To claim the whole exclusion, you must have owned and lived in your home as your principal residence an aggregate of at least two of the five years before the sale (this is called the ownership and use test). You can claim the exclusion once every two years.

This is why families who stay in the same home for decades suffer a greater tax that more mobile families avoid by moving each time they approach the $500,000 capital gain threshold.

So what happens if you’ve already exceeded the $500,000 exclusion limit on your primary residence? Here are two ways to defer or avoid the excess gain you may realize.

#2 STARKER 1031 EXCHANGE

The 1031 Exchange, or “Starker Exchange” named after the Defendant in a lawsuit with the IRS, Starker v. United States, which was overturned by the appellate court and ruled in favor of Mr. Starker. This case law was later reeled in a bit by Congress after the IRS defeat, but in the end it allows one to sell one property and invest in another “like” property and avoid paying capital gains. Of course there are many rules one must follow such as the replacement property must cost at least $1.00 more than the one you sold and you only have 45 days to identify a replacement property and 180 days to close escrow. There’s an intermediary company that must be in constructive receipt of the funds after the first property is sold as to avoid realizing the gain, but those are details that an exchange company will gladly guide you through.

But what if you don’t want to exchange into a “like” property? Then this next Deferred Sale Trust arrangement is an excellent option.

#3 Deferred Sale Trust

There’s also what is referred to as a Deferred Sale Trust. Essentially, the process starts when a property owner sells its property to a trust owned by a third party company. The trust sells the property or stock. Next, the trust “pays” you. The payment isn’t in cash, but with a payment contract called an “installment contract.” The contract promises to make payments to you over an agreed period of time. There are zero taxes to the trust on the sale since the trust “purchased” the property from you for what it sold it for. The payment is made with an installment contract which makes payments to you over an agreed period of time.

Knowing how to use these opportunities to your benefit can make a difference in your estate planning—especially on the Peninsula where our home values increase so rapidly and the $500,000 gain relief threshold can be reached in a matter of a few years.

If you have questions for the author, Drew Morgan, you may reach him at 650-590-4525 or email info@morganhomes.com.

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

You can find them on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and also find them on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Belmont Homes Hit a New High

Notre Dame ExteriorBelmont homes hit a new high as our Best of Tour report for this week is being supplanted by the second highest price obtained (per square foot) for a home in Belmont—the highest being recorded less than a month ago in Sterling Downs.

One could argue that since the Sterling Downs home at 1,010 sqft was so small the price per square foot $1,262 record should be bested by the home on Notre Dame, a two bedroom two bath home of a modest 1,340 square feet in size. The lot is an unremarkable 5,340 square feet—just slightly above average. The home itself, a rather undistinguished but well-appointed home, yet nothing stands out as deserving the almost $1,200 dollar per square foot they received—nothing like solid gold appliances or whatever could possibly impress one enough to pay the $501,000 OVER the asking price (46% over asking). It was listed for $1,099,000 and sold for $1,600,000 in eight days.

Notre Dame YardBut then when we saw that the selling agent (representing the buyer) was from Woodside—one of the toniest town in America where homes have sold as high as $5,500 per square foot— it made more sense and it stands to reason that an out-of-area agent just might confuse the values in Woodside with that of Belmont.

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

You can find them on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and also find them on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. We did NOT sell this home.

Most Expensive Homes in America

One of the most expensive homes in America is a massive Beverly Hills, Calif., estate with its own entertainment complex, 27-car garage and vineyard has hit the market with a record breaking listing price of $195 million.Pazo

Called the Palazzo di Amore (or “Palace of Love”), the estate is enormous with 53,000 square feet of living space, 12 bedrooms and 23 bathrooms. The master suite alone — at 5,000 square feet — is bigger than most McMansions.

Imagine having to use a GPS locator to find your loved ones in this home.

On the 25-acre property, there’s a vineyard that produces 400 to 500 cases of syrah, cabernet, sauvignon blanc and other wines each year. There’s also a guest house, formal gardens, a spa and a 128-foot long reflecting pool.

Visitors arrive through one of three sets of double gates and drive a quarter mile to the front entrance, where they encounter an Italian-made fountain carved of Carrara marble.

Unlike Belmont, they can park pretty much anywhere. The estate has a 27-car garage and 150 additional parking spaces.Theater

The Palazzo di Amore was made for entertaining. Not only can it accommodate 1,000 guests, but it also boasts a 50-seat theater, a bowling alley and a game room. There’s also space to host a seated dinner for 250 guests. But who’s doing the dishes?

The ballroom is outfitted with laser lights, a DJ booth and a revolving dance floor. It also features a trompe l’oiel,          sky-dome ceiling with more clouds painted on it than the typical Southern Californian sees in a day. There’s also expansive views of West Side of Los Angeles, Century City and the ocean beyond.

Of course and respectable vineyarWine Roomd must have its own wine cellar and tasting room. This one has space for 3,500 bottles. If that’s not enough space, there’s a more utilitarian wine vault downstairs that holds 10,000 more bottles.—source CNN Money.

But don’t expect to get invited over for dinner anytime soon. The villa is rented out most of the time at a cool $475,000 per month. I wonder if that even covers the water bill?

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

You can find them on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and also find them on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Best of Tour for April 28, 2015

Selecting today’s Best of Tour home made for a difficult decision. Not because there were too many intriguing homes to choose from, or great deals to be had, but rather that there were none which offered any attributes we found remarkable or outstanding.

I don’t profess to be any sort of great hiker, and today proved why. We hiked up and down more stairs today than was portrayed in the famous lithograph Relativity by M. C. Escher in 1953.

Aside from the common denominator of “mundane” in the homes we toured today, was the abundance of cliff side homes. There are two kinds of cliff-side homes—cliff hangers—you know, the sort of homes you wonder if your kids would get out the bungee cords and leap over the edge, and what we refer to as cliff clingers—those homes which are on the up-slope with a yard better suited for a Billy Goat.

Now don’t get us wrong, many of these very homes offer spectacular views and often little yard maintenance. But when you’re out touring 20 of them in a row, one pines for just one sprawling California ranch home.

So if you are looking for an excuse to step back from the relentless open house weekend, we recommend you get away and tune in next week. Perhaps a nice hike would be in order…

Belmont’s Housing Market is Dead?

Drastic Drop in Inventory
Drastic Drop in Inventory

What Happened to Belmont’s Housing Market?

Talk about a slow start…Belmont has started this year with a big yawn when it comes to the housing market. New listings year to date are down 67% over this time last year—and 2014 was a slow year for listings.

San Carlos on the other hand is enjoying a 27% increase in listings to date at a median price 30% higher than last year.

One hopes we can begin to catch up! Stay tuned…

 

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Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

 

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

 

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Housing Market Free Fall?

How Can You Tell When The Housing Market Has Changed?

You look at the numbers.

Agents are a funny lot. Their perspective of the housing market around them has a lot to do with how busy they are at the moment—how many listings they have (or don’t) or how many times they’ve recently been beat in a multiple offer situation.

On broker tour day where we try and see all of the new listings in one fell swoop and we can’t help but bump in to our colleagues during tour. Actually a lot of important networking goes on during our tour, but along with the hope of discovering a “coming soon” treasure, is the hyperbole about the state of the market. It varies dramatically from agent to agent and house to house as we make our way up and down the peninsula.

When an agent’s listing lingers on the market too long they often blame it on “a slowdown in the market”, rather than try and figure out if they did something wrong or the seller overpriced their home. And of course if one of their listings recently flew off the shelf, a slowdown in the farthest thing from their mind.

And when seasonal fluctuations, which are otherwise easily predictable take hold, many agents are in a tizzy that the market has finally topped (or bottomed) out.

When we hear this wild conjecture it’s in at least my nature to go back and do some research to see what the real pulse is of the market.

So here’s how the patient was doing at the end of May 2014 for Belmont:

Belmont May 2014

 

[DARK GREY HIGHLIGHT INDICATES OUR LISTING]

SALES

The number of homes which sold in Belmont during May of 2014 were 19—down from 32 a year ago. So what happened? Well as it turns out May of 2013 was one crazy anomaly as also seen in 2010. Homes sales in Belmont have averaged 24 sales per the month of May since 1998. But in our current market, homes sales are down because new listings are down, not because people are afraid to buy a home.

SALES May 2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW LISTINGS

While the number of new listings dropped from 35 last May to 31 this year, the 16-year average is 37 new listing per month in May.

New Listings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DOM [Days on Market]

This unremarkable statistic remained essentially unchanged at 11 days in May of 2013 to 12 days in 2014.

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

The Median home price in Belmont for May 2014 was $1,300,000 which bought one a median size 2,070 Sqft home. This May saw an increase over 2013 of 17% [raw numbers]. Of course the homes which sold this year were 8.6% larger so the real median home price increase was probably closer to 8.4% year-over-year. And if you use the actual square foot calculation model for adjustment that whacks it down even further to a 7.6 realized increase year-over-year. So the rate of home price increases appear to be slowing.

Median May

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PRICE REDUCTIONS?

Only two sellers had to lower their price before their home sold which is exactly twice as many as last year.

PERCENT RECEIVED of ASKING

110% in 2013 to 111% in 2014. The all-time high was 115% over asking in April the month before.

Percent Received of Asking is probably the statistic most aligned with defining a hot or cold market so we track this number closely—though there’s one inherent flaw in reading too much into this and the median home price changes. Here’s why…

As prices increase fewer and fewer people have the wherewithal to purchase a home at all, let alone throw an extra $100,000 over the asking price.  Couple that with the recent housing rebound out of a historic slump, and one can see that in the initial rebound years, the median price trend skyrocketed along with the percent seller’s received over asking until the home values breached new high territory. Hence we end up with statistics demonstrating the rate of appreciation slowing and the amount buyers can afford to go over asking waning. In all respects one could call that a slowdown, but being hit by a train going 50 mph rather than 100 still smarts.

percent received May 2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How the Numbers Rolled

In May 2014 85% of the sellers received over their asking price—down from 88% last May and 14% received less than asking in 2014 as compared to 12% in 2013. None of the homes in either year sold at the seller’s asking price.

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Best Way to Sell A Home

Agents can be their own worst enemy when what they should be doing is finding the best way to sell a home.Frequently Unasked Questions

The real estate business is hard enough without agents making it even more difficult. Many of our clients assume we work 24/7 and the business practices of many agents essentially ensures that we do.

There’s no standardized best practice when it comes to lunching a home for sale. Homes pop up every day of the week and offers are entertained anywhere from before a home even hits the market, to hours, a few days or weeks later.

Take for example our local market where with very little inventory, homes are flying off the shelf. Unless there is some sort of structure to the launch and contract review day, one could never get a day off as every time a home would hit the MLS agents would have to scurry over and get their clients in within minutes or the home might be sold.

Thankfully, many local agents set a date to entertain offers so that buyers and their agents aren’t scrambling to see all of the available homes at a moment’s notice.

Recently, a new standard of practice has started to develop as some agents have begun listing properties before the weekend—holding one weekend of open homes, a Tuesday Broker tour, and listening to offers the following Friday. That equates to 7 days on the market. And while it brings some semblance of order to our otherwise chaotic trade, it’s not the best course of action to get the seller the most for their home.

The first issue is the earnest money deposit. Listening to offers on Friday is fraught with anxiety as our contracts default to 3 business days to deposit the buyer’s consideration (deposit) into escrow. A Friday offer date means the buyer’s deposit money doesn’t even hit escrow until Wednesday of the following week—five days after contract ratification. Even if the buyer’s agent changed that in the contract to 1 business day, the deposit is still not due until Monday after a weekend of new open homes. It’s not unusual to see a buyer get cold feet or see a better home over the weekend and decide not to deliver the deposit. No agent wants to find themselves trying to resurrect a highest offer a week later yet they continue to put themselves and their sellers at risk.

Another issue is sufficient market awareness and, the mere practicality of seeing a home, analyzing the recent sales in the area, reviewing the reports and making an informed offer. Most buyers today spend more time choosing their washer and dryer than they do actually buying their home—it’s an unsustainable pace and will invariably lead to lawsuits.

Anecdotally, we’ve encountered many buyers during our first open house praying that we will be open one more weekend as their spouse was out of town for the week. If you market your home for less than one week you’re potentially missing out on interested buyers who may be unavailable during that small window. And imagine the frustration when buyers who take just one week off to get away during their year long home search are out of luck when the ideal home gets listed by one of these agents the week they are away.

Our research indicates we’ve received some of our highest and best offers often from a buyer who saw the home at the second open home. On a home we just listed and sold with four offers in 11 days, had we heard offers before the second open house we would have missed out on two of the suitors (bidders) who came through the second weekend.

But who is to say our strategy works the best? The numbers do. We consistently outperform other agents with the percentage over the asking price we net our sellers. And it’s not because we under price our listings. We do this by sticking to a formula with proven results. We’ve also never had a buyer voluntarily back out of one of our listings once in contract. We contribute part of this success to slowing down the process and not putting people in a foot race. We think that market saturation is good for sellers and buyers as the sellers get maximum market attention and buyers have more time to digest whether a home is right for them before they get into escrow.

The numbers below represent all of the homes sold in Belmont year to date. Notice that there’s a sweet spot where too many days on the market and a home gets far less, and too few not enough.

Sellers who marketed their home on average for ten days received more than agents who took offers too soon. It’s also interesting to note that of the 67 homes which have sold thus far this year, the highest over asking a seller received was 46%–marketed for 10 days. In fact eight of the 14 homes which sold 20% or more over asking were listed for greater than 10 days but less than 14.

Median
% over Asking Days on Market
>20%

10

15-20 %

9

10-15%

12

5-10%

8

0-5%

34

< 100%

33

mortgage-rates27-300x300

 

Many agents banter about claims that they will sell your home for more money in shorter period of time—but we have the numbers to back us up. We base our system for marketing homes on a proven strategy that nets our sellers consistently more than the other top agents in our territory. Our listings are all on the market for 11 days which accounts for two weekend of open houses, one broker tour and offer date after the second set of open houses. To find out what else we do, contact us directly to learn more about our progressive services.

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Are Belmont Home Values Near The TOP–August 2013

Are home values near the top? Thus far this year the media focus has been to highlight the hot local housing market. Now it seems they are looking for any signs of it faltering to present a new angle. And in deed you may have already heard the recent reports from Case-Shiller and others indicating that the market is showings signs of cooling off.

When will it begin to cool? Has it already?

Remember—real estate is local yet media reports often are not. What you might be hearing in the news may not apply to the neighborhood where you live.

With the biggest housing crash since the great depression* still front and center in our memories, it’s no wonder that potential purchasers might be wary of how fast the market has rebounded.

We recently released an article discussing those very points—“What’s in store in Q4”. In it, we delve into why we believe if recent changes in market forces continue, the once rapid rise in home values will begin to wane.

AUGUST 2013—For now, the numbers are in for Belmont for August 2013 (Septembers will be out soon), and there’s no sign of a let up in our fervent housing activity—at least according to the numbers for August.

Belmont Home Values Aug 2013

[click on the graphic for a larger picture]

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

Most notably is the pace of the median home price in Belmont. It stands at $1,105,000 which is a 20% increase over last year during the same time. We’re the first to look at the size of homes selling in the two periods to see if perhaps larger or smaller homes sold and skewed the median home price. But what we found was that in August of this year the homes that comprised the sales mix were 16% smaller and yet cost 20% more. Also interesting to note was that the median home price in Belmont has been over the million dollar mark for the last four consecutive months—in fact had the median home price not dipped just below that threshold in April of this year, it would have been over the million dollar mark every month so far this year. Contrast that to the historical median price trend in Belmont which has never had consecutive months over the million dollar mark.

Summary—Belmont homes values have hit a new high.

SALES

August of 2013 saw a 55% increase in home sales and paradoxically a 70% decrease in new listings.

MONTHS OF INVENTORY†

That brings us to the inventory which was down 131% from August of 2012 resulting in a record low “Months of Inventory” factor of .73, down from 2.6 months in 2012.

DOM [Days on Market]

The average time it took to sell a home which closed in August was 17 days, down from 31 in 2012.

PERCENT RECEIVED OF ASKING

This August 80% of the sellers received on average $130,000 or 9% over their asking price as compared to 44% of sellers receiving $60,000 or on average 2% more than asking in 2012.

In short, the inevitable slowdown in the RATE of appreciation is news but it hasn’t appeared in the statistics yet. If you talk with a Belmont REALTOR® you’ll no doubt hear they think the market has cooled off a bit. We’ll look at September’s sales to see if that’s true, because July sales, (which resulted in August statistics), didn’t bear that out and neither did our first-hand experience.

Sellers of homes in Belmont should know that the majority of the rebound in equity has already occurred. The rate of appreciation will slow as the market forces we discuss on our blog begin to kick in. If we’re right and they do, the housing market will become much more sustainable—we have our fingers crossed.

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble

Months of inventory is the time as measured in months that it would take to sell all of the homes currently listed for sale, assuming no more new homes were listed.

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS with RE/MAX and a NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508-1441.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Drew & Christine Morgan did not necessarily participate in these sales.