We’ve got a lot to cover at the beginning of a new year as we go back and examine all of 2008 as well as the month of December.
This is our month-end report of home sales in Belmont for the month of December 2008. Note that while the median price dropped significantly from November, so did the size home which sold in December. The difference in size of homes in the two months was 190 square feet. At the price per square foot of $514 that could account for $97,660 of the difference in the median home price—meaning that home prices were actually higher in December if you factor in for the size of home which sold.
Sales were up too. There were eight sales in November and eleven in December. That’s an anomaly as typically sales in November are greater than December. We’ll chalk that one up to the dire economic news in October (October sales are November’s closings).
Those of you who have been following us for some time know that at the beginning of each year we re-cap the previous year and take a stab at where the market might be headed in the upcoming year.
Of course you expect to read the median price has dropped and in fact it has, just not as much as you may have been anticipating. While the Bay Area nine counties reported a median price drop of over 40%* from 2007, Belmont had only a 5.4% decline and that’s after we factored into our calculations slightly larger homes sold in 2008. The raw numbers, which tend to be the only ones reported, suggest a decline in median price of only 2.6% for the year.
SALES ARE KEY
Sales are key to the survival of Realtors®, but unless you are selling your home you could probably care less how many homes sell in a given year. However, it gives us a good indication of overall market activity—with the caveat that sometimes sales are down simply because there are fewer homes to sell.
Sales of single family homes (our benchmark for all comparisons) were down from last years’ 219 to a paltry 170 for the entire year in 2008—a decrease of over 22%! Contrasted to a year of more normal market activity, (as recent as 2003 when 343 homes sold), sales are down up to 50%. Clearly we are in a period of slower than normal home sales.
HOMES LISTED FOR SALE
But were there fewer homes to sell in 2008? It’s hard to believe but for the entire year, at 309, there were only two fewer listings than in 2007.
What’s in store for 2009?
With the perfunctory disclaimer that past performance does not predict future results, we fear in 2009 it may however be quite true. We wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a continuation of the stagnant real estate market which has had a choke-hold on home sales in 2008. Interestingly, the last major downturn in real estate which began in 1989 was caused by an overall weak economy and most importantly the loss of jobs. In contrast, the current housing downturn has in effect created the recession—a reversal of past cycles.
That’s a long way of saying that housing cannot recover until the economy does and the economy won’t recover until housing stabilizes. Sound like a Catch-22? Well it is. And while it appeared in the second quarter of 2008 that the real estate recovery might begin in 2009, we now believe that will be pushed out at least another year. That said, any sign of a recovery will manifest with a leveling off of inventory and declining home values. A period of stagnant home values will invariably last for another year or two following a price plateau as buyers still wary of a volatile market will only reluctantly reenter the market. Most will wait too long and catch prices on the way back up but there’s no telling when that will happen. We’re not telling you to run out and buy a home as part of a fear based campaign, “Hurry or you may miss the bottomâ€, but in every market there are opportunities which should be examined. We learned long ago to resist trying to explain to people why they should buy a home and rather help those who are already motivated. Like the old saying, “You can lead a horse to water…†but he has to be thirsty. This year’s wild cards? Interest rates, consumer confidence the recessions and jobs, jobs, jobs!.
The holidays are in full swing and you can tell by the deafening silence that Belmont’s housing activity is slower than the holiday deliveries promised by UPS. A very unscientific barometer is our phones are eerily quiet (which is not a bad thing one time of the year) but some ringing other than the Salvation Army’s bells would still be welcome—let’s not jinx anything.
The inventory of homes for sale is at 40—down considerably from just a few weeks ago. Unfortunately it’s not sales that have been driving the numbers lower but rather sellers have thrown in the towel for the year as ten homes were taken off of the market. We just closed escrow on the last two homes we will sell in 2008 and now it’s so quiet that we decided to take a week off from posting homes for sale to take a break and trade the stress of work for the equally demanding stress of preparing for entertaining the family for Christmas. Don’t get me wrong, we love the holidays but it’s non-stop entertaining 24/7 for three days around here.
Our next post about the housing picture will be our year-end wrap-up in early January where we stick our necks out and make foolhardy predictions which can only backfire in today’s economy. Nevertheless we’ll hold true to our word and re-cap last year’s predications (ugh) and try to realistically let you know where we think things are headed in 2009, as well as give the year-end results from one of the most tumultuous real estate years in history.
Stay tuned though as we'll invariably come up with a few fun posts before the year is out.
Until then, Happy Holidays!
There have been only three new listings in Belmont in the past two weeks.
1 Debbie Lane—3 Bed 2 bath 1,800 Sq. Ft. home on a 5,850 Sq. Ft. lot. LISTED for $ 998,000. This is a good solid home at a fair price and located on a small cul-de-sac on Belmont’s eastern hills exposure (than means warmer). It has a usable level rear yard and hopefully you’ll like the small pool or else you can fill it in. It last sold for $740,000 in 2003 during a lull in the market. No OPEN HOUSES listed. Listed By Deborah Mitchell Hawes, Coldwell Banker.
820 El Camino Real—5 Bed 3 bath 1,800 Sq. Ft. home. This place has been a rental and really that’s what it should continue to be used for. It offers great tenant parking which of course is very desirable considering the home is on the El Camino. NO OPEN HOUSE LISTED. Listed By H. Craig Thorson, Red Hawk Real Estate Inc.
418 Yorkshire—3 Bed 1 Bath 1,010 Sq. Ft. home on a 5,000 Sq. Ft. lot. LISTED for $ 577,900. With all of the sales in this area over $600,000 this home is priced to sell. Here’s a perfect well kept home at a discount. This is our BEST DEAL of the week. NO OPEN HOUSES LISTED. Listed By Michael A. Ames, Patriot Properties.
No Homes went into a pending status in the last two weeks.
SOLD HOMES
Well, sold home actually.
↔1636 Fairway Drive 3 Bed 1.5 Bath 1,720 Sq. Ft. home on a 6,000 Sq. Ft. USABLE lot. LISTED for
$799,000 and sold in 33 days for $799,000. This home has potential but also needed a lot of work. Located on the site of the old golf course in Belmont and an appropriately named (and desirable) street.
Many of you saw this home on our web page and at the open house. Several homes in the Hallmark area of Belmont have languished on the market for months without selling and everyone has been asking us how we sold our listing so fast. Well, here’s the answer in video form. Obviously we had to price the home attractively but we also had to add value. Preparing a home for sale takes a lot more than staging. Thanks to a cooperative seller, we transformed this home in only a few weeks and the transition was phenomenal–then we listed and sold the home in a week. Take a quick peek at this short video where we show you before and after results–then call us to transform your home for sale.
We anticipated Belmont home sales closing at eight for the month of November in a previous post where we did an extensive review of the local market.
Click on the play tab to hear an overview
These first two graphs will be explained more in detail further in our post but as you can see the percentage of homes selling over the seller’s asking price has increased.
(Click on the chart below for a full size image).
As you can see from the sales report, sales are down considerably from the previous month and down from than that of a year ago as well. We’ve added a chart showing the differences (below) that will help put November’s numbers in perspective.
(Click on the chart below for a full size image).
To sum up the data we’ve also added arrows depicting whether each indicator (or data point) is an improvement this November over the two previous periods reviewed. An up arrow ↑indicates that this November’s data is an improvement over the previous periods while a down arrow↓ indicates the opposite is true.
MEDIAN PRICE
The Median price, the point at which half of the homes have sold more or less, remains virtually unchanged from October 2008. Counter intuitively November’s median at $912,000 is higher than in 2007 when it stood at $894,000. The size of homes selling greatly impacts the price per square foot as smaller homes sell for more per square foot and larger homes tend to sell for more period. Accounting for the difference where in 2007 the median home size was 1645 square feet and this year where the median home sold was 1,910 sq. ft., at $514 per square foot that would make the 265 sq. ft. difference in size worth around $136,210 meaning that home values actually dropped 7% over last year’s November, not up 2% as the raw data suggests.
SALES
At only eight sales as compared to last November’s 20, it’s amazing that inventory is not higher. At the time we wrote this the inventory of active homes for sale in Belmont stood at only 50. To some degree that helps balance the supply and demand and keep prices in relatively check.
This November three homes sold over their asking price—the same number as last year. The difference is this year homes that sold over their asking price represented 43% of all the November sales while last year it represented only 15%.
PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT:
Be careful not to read too much into this. Last year homes sold in November sold for $70.00 more per square foot than this November—but the homes that sold last year were much smaller; and as was discussed above, smaller homes tend to sell for more per square foot because land is a constant in the calculation and can account for half of a home’s value.
PERCENT RECEIVED:
This November sellers received on average 99.38% of their asking price—virtually unchanged over October’s performance and better than last November’s 97.9%. This needs to be weighed against the CDOM (Continuous Days on Market) and the number of price reductions statistics to be meaningful at all. Sure homes sold this November closer to their asking price, but did the seller receive more in real dollars? How many price reductions and how many days a typical home is on the market help put this number in perspective. Notice that homes which needed a price reduction in order to sell accounted for nearly 63% of all sales this November while last year they accounted for only 25%. But the time it took to sell a home, though higher than in October, dropped from 46 to only 29 days this November. What does this suggest? That more sellers are forced to lower their expectations and lower their asking prices sooner rather than later.
This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this intended to be specific to your situation-always consult a specialist who is familiar with the details of your situation.
Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended to be a representation of homes listed or sold exclusively by Drew or Christine Morgan or Carlmont Associates.
As part of our Real Estate REVEALED series we answer another Frequently Unasked Question in our latest Podcast—how do you know when a home is priced right? In addition to this latest Podcast, we’ve added a web page that makes finding the entire series of archive issues in one place.
Podcasts
Drew & Christine Morgan
"Helping People Make Good Decisions"sm
(650) 508-1441
Click the mic for the web version of this page.
Thanks for visiting our Podcasts. Each week we offer a housing market update podcast on our blog at BeautifulMountainBlog.org as well as our series titled "Frequently Unasked Questions" where we tackle questions buyers and sellers should be asking but frequently aren't, and "Real Estate Revealed" where we discuss industry insider information. Enjoy and don't forget you can subscribe to our podcast stream to be automatically updated with any new releases by clicking on the orange RSS icon.
Belmont’s housing market is experiencing slower than usual seasonally adjusted sales as other harder hit areas in our nine county region are experiencing large increases. This sounds worse than it is as Belmont’s home values are holding up rather well.
Listen to our Podcast to get a review of November’s housing market nuances.
>
NEW LISTINGS
1309 Sunnyslope—2 Bed 1 bath 980 Sq. Ft. home on a 4,410 Sq. Ft. lot
This home won’t be toured until next Tuesday and there are no open houses listed as of yet There are some photos if you care to click on the address link. Side note—this home sold back in June of 2003 in multiple offers. It was listed at $599,000 and sold for $611,000. Listed By Charles Floyd, Help-U-Sell Floyd Realty
Belmont—3 Bed 2 Bath 1,040 Sq. Ft. home on a 6,300 Sq. Ft. lot. LISTED for $859,000 (sold back in July of 2002 for $580,000). This home has a bonus space which has been rented out for $800.00 per month. NO OPEN HOUSE LISTED. For some reason, the seller did not want the address disclosed but if you are driving around Belmont (headed towards San Mateo) you may recognize this home. Listed By Michael Vigo, Michael F. Vigo, broker.
PENDING SALES
2824 Hallmark Drive—4 Bed 3 Bath 2,400 +/- Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,298,900. This is of course our own listing and all contingencies have been removed. It’s now scheduled to close on December 5, 2008 and we’ll be sure and update you with the details then! Listed By Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates
3414 Beresford Ave. 2 Bed 1 Bath 890 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $649,000 and received an offer in 22 days. You can bet this home sold for less than the asking price—it needs a lot of work. Listed By Rosa De La Rosa, Regency Prime Properties Inc
3901 Christian Drive—3 Bed 2 Bath 1,660 Sq. Ft. home. Here’s the listing history for this home:
80841052
11/25/2008
Pend Rel
12/31/2008
03/31/2009
Intero Real Estate Services (NTERO.4)
$843,000
80841052
11/05/2008
Active
03/31/2009
Intero Real Estate Services (NTERO.4)
$843,000
80841052
10/21/2008
Active
03/31/2009
Intero Real Estate Services (NTERO.4)
$868,000
80823845
09/08/2008
Cancelled
12/24/2008
Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)
$899,000
80823845
09/08/2008
Cancelled
12/24/2008
Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)
$899,000
80823845
08/11/2008
Active
12/24/2008
Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)
$899,000
80823845
08/11/2008
Active
12/24/2008
Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)
$899,000
80823845
07/24/2008
Active
12/24/2008
Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)
$929,000
80823845
07/24/2008
Active
12/24/2008
Out of Area Office (RCIP.1)
$929,000
Wow—that was a long hard road to a sale. Listed By Ron J. Bonhagen Sr., Intero Real Estate Services
1909 Lyon—3 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,629 Sq. Ft. home. Another home with a long listing history:
80845560
11/25/2008
Pend Show
12/10/2008
02/01/2009
Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)
$865,000
80845560
11/25/2008
Pend Rel
12/10/2008
02/01/2009
Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)
$865,000
80845560
11/16/2008
Active
02/01/2009
Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)
$865,000
80845560
11/15/2008
Active
02/01/2009
Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)
$869,888
80843341
11/10/2008
Cancelled
03/31/2009
Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)
$875,000
80843341
11/03/2008
Active
03/31/2009
Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)
$875,000
80836808
11/03/2008
Cancelled
03/29/2009
Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)
$889,000
80836808
10/27/2008
Active
03/29/2009
Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)
$889,000
80836808
10/27/2008
Active
03/29/2009
Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)
$879,000
80836808
10/10/2008
Active
03/29/2009
Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)
$889,000
80836808
09/29/2008
Active
03/29/2009
Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)
$912,000
80830767
09/29/2008
Cancelled
02/28/2009
Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)
$912,000
80830767
08/29/2008
Active
02/28/2009
Carlmont Associates (CARL.1)
$912,000
This was listed by Celeste Pagan in our Carlmont Associates office. Listed By Celeste L. Pagan, Carlmont Associates
SOLD HOMES
2812 Wakefield Drive—4 Bed 3 Bath 2,490 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $ 1,388,831 and lowered to $1,359,531 after 12 days and finally sold for $1,360,000 within 14 days of being reduced.
This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this intended to be specific to your situation-always consult a specialist who is familiar with the details of your situation. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended to be a representation of homes listed or sold exclusively by Drew or Christine Morgan or Carlmont Associates.Download WIR 11.30.2008
We’re very excited to bring you anew animated version of our graphsdepicting the various housing market trends in San Mateo County and the cities which lie within.
Each month we download data from our Multiple Listing Service and analyze the market indicators. We provide this in-depth analysis for several of the many cities we serve on the Peninsula.
We’ve also added short audio tags to describe what we are depicting and help put the information in perspective.
Another feature will be our “Weekly Graphâ€.We’re not saying it will change each week but when an interesting trend develops you’ll find it under that tab.
We hope you’ll take a moment to check out our new graphical interface on our“How’s the Market?†link and give us some feedback.
Look, It’s a bird, it’s a plan no it’s a Dirigible?
Actually it's not a blimp at all. Look to the skies on a calm day around the Bay Area and you just might spot the world’s largest Zeppelin in your neighborhood. What’s it doing here? It was the brain child of Brian and Alex Hall to offer sightseeing flights around the Bay area. This lofty business venture got its start in 2006 when Brian first rode in a Zeppelin while in Germany and immediately was hooked. First, an order needed to be place for only the fourth Zeppelin NT in the world. Then, just two years later on October 23, 2008 the Zeppelin “Venture†was launched from Moffet field. This isn’t your mother ship Hindenburg; it’s filled with Helium instead of Hydrogen and uses gas engines to propel itself through the skies at lightning speeds up to 35 MPH. The Zeppelin NT07 airship can carry up to 12 passengers and is the largest airship flying in the US. At 246 feet in length, it is more than 50 feet longer than the largest blimp. It uses inert gas helium for lift, and vectored thrust engines for flight. So what’s the difference between a Blimp and a Zeppelin? Blimps are non rigid dirigibles and Zeppelins are rigid (and can carry more passengers). The Hindenburg by contrast was much larger and filled with Hydrogen (an extremely volitile gas). At 805 ft long, it could carry 73 passengers and flew at a blazing 80 MPH. Oh, and any DIRECT-IBLE flying machine can be called a dirigible.
(I took this picture out of my sunroof while in San Mateo)
Belmont’s housing picture settled down a bit as homeowners who had stalled temporarily in the wake of October’s housing news began to list their homes for sale for a pre-winter push.
→NEW Click on the play button to hear a brief market overview.
There are 53 homes for sale in Belmont, down from 57 in the last several weeks.
Five new listings have recently hit the market, three have been re-listed and there were three that closed escrow as well.
ACTIVE HOMES
1943 Hillman—4 Bed 3.5 Bath 2,969 Sq. Ft. home on a steep up slope 8,500 Sq. Ft. lot. LISTED for $1,195,000. OK, the lot is steep and if you don’t mind stairs you’ll actually find a level rear yard area out back. Nicely appointed home with remodeled kitchen. Listed By Val Shevelyov, Quest Real EstateOPEN HOUSE INFO NOT AVAILABLE.
528 Davey Glen—4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,190 Sq. Ft home on a 7,350 Sq. Ft. lot LISTED for $1,139,000. Davey Glen is a busy street with mixed use (i.e. Condos, homes, businesses).Note—this home last sold in 1997 for $479,500. And who says Peninsula Real Estate is a bad investment. Listed By Bryce Cook, RE/MAX TodayOPEN SUNDAY 11/23 1:00-4:00
1902 Miller Ave.—3 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,030 Sq. Ft. home on a 9,800 Sq. Ft. lot LISTED for $999,999. This home has a nice setting and is reminiscent of the Brady Bunch home of the 1970’s—though it has been updated. Listed By Wendy Grainger, Wendy P. Grainger, BrokerOPEN SUNDAY 11/23 1:00-4:00.
3402 Lower Lock—3 Bed 2 Bath home on a 5,500 Sq. Ft. lot LISTED for $899,888. This home shows impeccably and has a very nice secluded rear level yard. Listed By Debbie Wilhelm, Coldwell BankerOPEN SUNDAY 11/23 from 1:40-4:30.
1941 Alden Street—3 Bed 1 Bath 1,330 Sq. Ft. home on a 5,500 Sq. Ft. lot LISTED for $ 865,000. Nice updated ranch home and it shows rather well. Elevated in the rear—level; yard below. The street is moderately busy. Listed by Debbie Sharp, Alain Pinel RealtorsOPEN SUNDAY 11:23 1:00-4:00 and again on 11/30 (same times).
1021 Elmer Street (no photos)—3 Bed 2 Bath 1,250 Sq. Ft. home on a level 5,000 Sq. Ft. lot in Sterling Downs (AKA east side of El Camino). LISTED for $689,000. This is a pre-foreclosure sale bargain hunters start your engines… Listed by Cameron Thompson, Alain Pinel RealtorsOPEN SUNDAY 11/23 2:00-4:00 and again on 11/30.
RE-LISTED HOMES
2007 Monroe Ave. 2 Bed 1 Bath 930 SQ. Ft. home on a 4,000 Sq. Ft. lot. RE-LISTED for $655,000 with no price reduction. This home has potential. Don’t let the 930 Sq. Ft. scare you away—it has a bonus room below which adds another 250 Sq. Ft. probably. Listed By Peter Vece, Dumas & Company
1909 Lyon Ave. 3 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,629 Sq. Ft. home on a 5,150 Sq. Ft. lot LISTED for $865,000 down from $869,888. The real price reduction was from $912,000 back in August. This home is now a very good deal and someone should jump on it. Nicely appointed and very clean. It has a level rear yard on a ½ level down access. Listed By Celeste L. Pagan, Carlmont AssociatesNO OPEN HOUSES LISTED.
2422 Hastings Dr. 3 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,250 Sq. Ft. home and a 4.032 Sq. Ft. lot RE-LISTED for $1,108,000 (same as before).These homes are along Hasting Drive and they are usually attached, though some are technically detached. This one has a canyon view and it’s an end home on the block so it has a neighbor on only one side and great canyon views out the other two (the front has a street view). It started at $1,038,000 back in August 2008 and was lowered to $1,018,000. It didn’t sell and a new agent listed the home at the same price. Listed By Jun Kyu Chung, East West Realty
SOLD HOMES
↑1500 Escondido Way—4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,080 Sq. Ft. home on a 17,120 Sq Ft. Lot LISTED for $1,250,000 SOLD for $1,375,000 in 12 Days. This home was unique in that it has a huge level lot and is located near downtown on one of Belmont’s premiere secluded cul-de-sac streets. The only negative to this home was it backed up to Ralston Ave. and Chula Vista so it does get some street noise. Other than that, it’s a one-of-a-kind home and worth every penny they paid over for the home.
↓1314 Paloma—3 Bed 3 Bath 2,390 Sq. Ft. home on a 4,320 Sq. Ft. lot. LISTED for $995,000 originally. It was lowered to $925,000 after three weeks and two weeks later it received a contract and SOLD for $900,000.
It’s interesting to note that the two homes above were both remodeled yet the smaller one received $425,000 more. One can never underestimate the allure of a park-like level rear yard. It’s also interesting to note that appraisers typically will allow only $5.50 per square foot credit for land. At that rate Escondido should have only received $970,000 rather than the $1,375,000 it did. Clearly appraisers are way off on estimating the value of usable land vs. just land (i.e. a sloping lot).
↓809 North Road—3 Bed 1.5 Bath home LISTED for $629,900 SOLD for $607,402 in Nine days. This was a great starter home on the west side of El Camino.
This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this intended to be specific to your situation-always consult a specialist who is familiar with the details of your situation.
Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended to be a representation of homes listed or sold exclusively by Drew or Christine Morgan or Carlmont Associates.
