Housing Market Crash or Correction—Which Indicators Should One Watch

Housing Market Crash, or Correction—Which Indicators Should One Watch?

There’s been a lot of talk about the state of our housing market, and the effect the rise in interest rates may be playing in the current market stall.

Here, we take a look at some of the indicators we watch to help us, whenever possible, anticipate what might lie ahead for our local market.

This week’s home closings in the mid-Peninsula cities that we track daily showed that half of the homes sold this week for over the asking price and the other half sold for at or below the original asking price, along with 35% of homes having their original price reduced before the home sold.

Contrast that to a year ago when during the same period only 13% of the homes which sold had price reductions, and 60% sold for over the asking price.

Will this be the new norm? Are buyers suffering from shopping fatigue? Has the market peaked?

It’s probably too soon to tell if the current market conditions are here to stay for a while, or merely a blip on the housing market radar screen. We’ll certainly know more when we turn the final page of this year’s calendar and buyers start to thaw out of hibernation.

The Presidential tax plan of 2017, seen by many as retribution for their vote of no confidence after the 2016 election, although applied evenly across the country, has a weighted effect on high-cost of living areas that President Trump lost in the election. This tax “benefit” appears to have had a punitive effect on those areas due to reduced property tax deductions, while also removing the State and Local Tax Deduction—pouring “S.A.L.T.” in their wounds. Will this flip the switch off on the red-hot housing market for the near future?

Interest Rates and Their Effect on the Housing Market

These are some of the important indicators we watch for any long-term shift in our market:

  • The 10 year Note (affects 15 year fixed rate mortgages)
  • The 30 year Bond (affects 30 year fixed rates)
  • The Federal Funds Rate (affects Adjustable Mortgage rates)
  • The spread between the long and short term yield (AKA the dreaded Inverted Yield Curve—an indicator of a slowing economy)
  • The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI)
  • Consumer Confidence

When we hear “The Feds are going to raise rates”, it’s important to note that specific change only affects the adjustable rate mortgages. One must also watch the Treasury Notes and Bonds for volatility in fixed rate mortgages.

As interest rates on Treasury notes rise, banks can raise the interest rates on new fixed rate mortgages. That means home buyers will have to pay more each month for a loan which in turn takes away purchasing power. Typically, when interest rates rise, home prices fall. When housing prices fall, the economy slows.

We’ve got good reason to be following this indicator. Read what CNBC just reported on yesterday.

INVERTED YIELD CURVE

An inverted yield curve is best observed in Treasury notes when yields on shorter maturity Treasury notes are higher than yields on longer maturity Treasury notes. During a healthy economy, the yield on a 30-year bond will be around three points higher than a 3-month bill—currently they are at 2.37 for the 3-month note, and 3.33 for a 30-year bond—a scant .96 point differential.

When a yield curve inverts, it is usually because investors have lost confidence in the current economy, thus driving up demand for longer-term securities in order to lock in the higher yields now. This increased demand lifts prices on long-term bonds, resulting in even lower yields, which move in the opposite direction of price. Meanwhile, lower demand for shorter-term securities has the opposite effect and their yields increase until the yield curve inverts. This is a valuable indicator to watch since an inverted curve often precedes a recession, as it did in 1981, 1991, 2000, and 2008.

And as of yesterday, December 4th, this very concern yielded a 800 point DOW sell-off.

An inverted yield curve doesn’t actually “cause” an economic slowdown per se, however, it is often a leading indicator as it’s driven by investor confidence—ostensibly by research, and not pure speculation.

“Inverted Yield Curve and How It Predicts a Recession”, By KIMBERLY AMADEO, The Balance

Thanks goes out to The Balance, an on-line investing information portal and specifically to  KIMBERLY AMADEO offering her down-to earth informative explanations.

The Conference Board’sLeading Economic Index (LEI)

“The US LEI increased slightly in October, and the pace of improvement slowed for the first time since May,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research and Global Research Chair at The Conference Board. “The index still points to robust economic growth in early 2019, but the rapid pace of growth may already have peaked. While near term economic growth should remain strong, longer term growth is likely to moderate to about 2.5 percent by mid to late 2019.”

Consumer Confidence

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, is based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch.

“Despite a small decline in November, Consumer Confidence remains at historically strong levels,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions increased slightly, with job growth the main driver of improvement. Expectations on the other hand, weakened somewhat in November, primarily due to a less optimistic view of future business conditions and personal income prospects. Overall, consumers are still quite confident that economic growth will continue at a solid pace into early 2019. However, if expectations soften further in the coming months, the pace of growth is likely to begin moderating.”

30 Year Bond 12 Month History

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Take Away

We all know interest rates are rising, the question becomes will that alone be enough to reverse or continue the stall in the upward trend of the housing market? The first few months of 2019 will be an excellent indicator since historically that’s the period where we see the strongest activity in housing sales and price increases.

Although we prefer not to prognosticate as to what will develop, we anticipate that the market should stabilize some from where it is currently. Prices have probably peaked for now, and we may see a more level playing field for buyers, and a market more in equilibrium. What will this new market be called? Perhaps normal, healthy, sustainable…

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  Theymay be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomesand on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

California to Offer $3,000 Subsidy for Earthquake Retrofitting

If you’re reading this, chances are you’re living near a major earthquake fault. Now if you’re unsure if you live near an active fault, this web site . Temblor, co-founded by Ross Stein from the USGS, is very useful for determining the proximity to, and estimating the damage from, an earthquake near your home.

We don’t have to go into graphic details about what could happen to your home and those who may reside within in the event of a significant earthquake, but here’s a good image from the California Earthquake Authority as to what damage can be done to homes with older unbraced foundations.

Sure one can purchase earthquake insurance, but that only helps to rebuild after the devastation of an earthquake has occurred. What earthquake retrofitting is designed for is to help prevent damage to your home, property or lives during or after an earthquake.

We did a blog post not long ago about the benefits of an automatic gas shut off valve. This article has to do with the program California is offering of up to $3,000 of a subsidy towards retrofitting your home’s foundation to help withstand an earthquake under a program entitled Earthquake Brace and Bolt, or EBB.

Limitations apply, for example Belmont didn’t even make the cut this year for retrofits, while San Carlos, Foster City, San Mateo and Redwood City along with a whole host of other cities nearby did. This is a link to a complete list of towns covered by the program this year. 

Additionally, this is not for homes with a slab foundation, or homes built after 1979, and there are other restrictions such as the height of your home’s cripple wall, so follow this link to get some more details from their short video.

The window for registration is open now and closes fast:

2019 EBB Program ZIP Codes – Registration Period will Open October 9 – November 13, 2018

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario

 

 

Housing Stall in 2018 Has Homebuyers on Fence

Wouldn’t it be nice if all market stalls were this pretty?

Welcome to our world, where the new question du jour is “Is there a market crash on the horizon?”, or some equally broad request eliciting a prognostication beyond our worldly abilities. We say, “define horizon?”

Market Stall
Market Stall

In 2017 there was little discussion about the Peninsula housing market and its sustainability. Yet since June of 2018, it’s what everyone seems to be talking about. So, we want to know, what’s really going on?

It never ceases to amaze us how short term the memory is for so many buyers and many agents. We did a blog post in May of 2016 and again in July, about the stall in the market back then. Of course, that too was an election year, and that post is as relevant today as it was back then. Right when everyone thought the sky was falling, after the election and inauguration,  the housing market rebounded to where it had left off, bringing on more misery for buyers as multiple offers once again ensued.

But will that happen again? Will the forces of higher interest rates coupled with fewer tax deduction incentives cause a permanent slowdown in the housing market even after the mid-term elections?

We measured the time period between August 1stthrough October 1st to get an accurate read on the current market conditions.

In Belmont, there were 59 new listings in 2017. This year during the same duration there have been three less—at 56. And although we’re hearing buyers and even some agents espouse how many more new listings there are, there are actually fewer in the same period.

In San Mateo, looking a price reductions during this same period, in the Presidential election year of 2016, 24% of sellers lowered their asking price. In 2017 only 9.8% of sellers had to lower their initial asking price, and so far this year, another election year, 26% of sellers have lowered their asking price.

What is changing is the rate of absorption—or how many homes are selling. The Months of Inventory is a measurement of how long it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the current pace of sales. Nationwide, this number typically stands around 6 months. In Belmont, that number has been below 1 month for most of the year, with a striking anomaly. The inventory stands at 1.3 months now, the same as it was in 2016 & 2017 during the same seasonal window.

In Belmont, during the same period in 2016-2018 the number of homes sales went from 33 in the presidential election year of 2016, to 43 last year in 2017, to 35 this year in the run up to the mid-term elections. That’s a decrease in sales of ~19% YOY, and that’s what is causing higher inventory levels—not the number of new listings.

On a more macro level, home sales in San Mateo County as a whole went from 752 units sold in 2016, to 734 in 2017 and this year 681 sales—an increased slow down each year-over-year.

How are seller’s weathering the storm? In 2017 Belmont homes sellers were receiving on average 112% of their asking price. That number dropped to 110% this year during the same period.

While in 2017, of the sellers who had to lower their asking price, they averaged a downward adjustment of only $89,000, this year that adjustment increased to $190,000—another sign of weakening demand.

How did the prices hold up overall during these two periods?

In 2017 the median price for a home in Belmont averaged $1,660,000 for these two months, while this year they averaged $1,821,000—indicating a 9.7% median home price increase YOY in Belmont.

What’s the take-away?

  • Home prices have begun to top out as fewer and fewer buyers can afford the median home price.
  • Government intervention in limiting the property tax deduction to only $10,000 per year and capping the mortgage interest deduction to the first $750,000 has a direct bearing on peninsula home values as the average cost to homeowners will now far exceed both of these caps.
  • Interest rates continue to creep up which will only further compound the ability of buyers to qualify for a Peninsula home.
  • We expect to see a more equilibrium in the market which will be less favorable to sellers while the playing field may finally be leveling.
  • Don’t expect prices to drop, but sellers can’t expect to get as many offers for as much over asking as their neighbor did a year ago.
  • Then there’s the stock market. We’ll let the experts talk about what’s going on there, but clearly with another huge unknown comes more uncertainty, and we can only imagine there will be further pull-back in the housing sector until the uncertainty wanes.
  • With strong job growth, buyers may want to buy now, as if history repeats itself, the Spring market will swing back in the favor of sellers.

 

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nothing Remains the Same, Except Change

Nothing remains the same, except change—with each change being slightly different than the one before…

By The Numbers

Now that the waning dog days of summer are upon us, we felt it was time to summarize the second quarter sales for the year. I mean, doesn’t everyone want to know, “How is the Market”? It’s the question posed to us most frequently, and I guess rightly so. After all, for many, ok, I’ll expand that for most people, their Bay Area home is their largest asset—their nest egg. It’s akin to people in other areas of the country, where home prices are more understandable, tracking their 401k’s, stock performance, or their own bank accounts on a daily basis.

When the market takes a nose dive again, and it will, if you’re anywhere near retirement, you had better have a plan “A” now, or you’ll invariably be implementing the alternative, plan “B”, which means you might just get stuck in retirement purgatory waiting for the values to come back so you can cash-out on all of that equity you once had.

This is also the time of year when many of my colleagues come to me in hushed voices wearing ghastly, pasty facial expressions contorted into the most unpleasant sight and reeking of fear, asking me if I noticed that the market is down…that there’s been a shift, and did I notice it, and do I feel the same way. I don’t. I’ve been tracking home sales statistics for my entire career, and it’s normal, heck it’s expected that in the summer the market slows. In typical fashion, agents will post these dire statistics from summer to what amounts to nothing more than fear mongering. Of course the market has slowed down, its summer!

Why? Because people have lives—and they go live them. It’s interesting to observe that the better the economy, the more pronounced how this housing hiatus manifests itself—more money, more market confidence, means you might as well pack up the family and head off for an extended vacation to some romantic or adventures place, like Disneyland. Because let’s face it, once the kids are out of school, parents have to do something to burn off that pent-up energy and it’s certainly not going to be tamed traipsing around open houses every weekend.

Then there’s the inarguable fact that the high bidders for homes in the spring market have already won. They’ve got the home they want, and now they’re leaving the housing hunt rat race in the dust and soaking up all of the equity future buyers will be serving up to them on a silver platter.

So instead of looking back at the spring market and wishing our business was just as brisk and our pipeline as full, we do what one should do and that is to compare and contrast the same period year-over-year to better understand, without hyperbole, pre-conceived notions, or hysteria, what the heck is really going on.

To this we look at the entire market of San Mateo County. It gives us a better more macro view of home trends than say limiting our analyses to a small town like Belmont, however charming it is, but also highly susceptible to wild swings in its small market sample size.

Here we see a different story emanating from the lines of a spreadsheet. The market isn’t down, any more than it should be for this time of the year, and in fact it’s quite strong.

The median home price for San Mateo County in Q2 rose $185,000 YOY or 13%, while sellers also enjoyed receiving 3% more over their asking price.

The number of new listings was up 9%, while sales were down 4%, causing the housing inventory to rise an aggregate 19%.


So the sky isn’t falling. The activity in the market is not quite as brisk, but with all that meddling in people’s mortgage tax deductions that’s to be expected. Now, everyone can go back into their happy place imagining that home values will always go up in the Bay Area with the trajectory of a missile launch, until that missile misfires and lands right back from where it took off.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario

 

 

 

1812 El Verano Way, Belmont OPEN SAT & SUN 8/4 & 8/5

1812 El Verano Way, Belmont LISTED FOR $1,598,000

  • Remodeled and enhanced with contemporary finishes
  • Three generous bedrooms
  • Two full taupe-tiled baths
  • Rich Oak hardwood flooring
  • Owners ensuite with walk-in shower, dual pane windows and recessed lighting
  • Freshly updated kitchen with newer sleek modern Samsung® appliances including silent-style dishwasher, five burner gas stove, microwave, stainless basin sink—granite counters
  • Large open communal living room with gas insert fireplace, recessed lighting, and new hardwood floors
  • New electrical panel
  • New front and rear landscaping
  • Multiple outdoor dining and entertainment patio areas—grass play area
  • Two car attached garage with new modern garage door
  • Approximately ~1,220 sq. ft.
  • Substantial ~7,102 sq. ft. lot
  • Built in 1955– and updated by current owners
  • Freshly painted interior with designer colors
  • Award winning Belmont schools, near Carlmont High School
  • Sought after Central Belmont location, nearby Carlmont Village Shopping Center
  • Several blocks from Barrett Park Community Center with its many recreational activities, childcare, dog park and socializing
  • Conveniently close to San Francisco International Airport, Half Moon Bay and Coastal towns, major commute arteries, nearby parks and plenty of excellent shopping and dining options

Reports available to qualified parties

1812 El Verano Way, Belmont

HANDSOME REMODELED CALIFORNIA RANCH | COVETED BELMONT HILLS AREA | INCREDIBLE BACKYARD

Designed and constructed by famed engineer and builder, ‘Andy’ Oddstad, this rolling hills location was chosen for its idyllic surroundings and its warmer microclimate—insulated from the cooler western hills exposure–hence the name El Verano, meaning “The Summer”. This post-WWII enclave of modest homes offer spacious lots, wide streets and community friendly sidewalks—rare for Belmont’s rural surroundings.

This single level home resides upon a bluff and enjoys level topography on an oversized lot. The home has undergone extensive enhancements and has been nicely updated with contemporary finishes. New hardwood flooring is throughout the home, along with the generous use of LED recessed lighting.

The nicely updated kitchen features Maple colored soft-close style drawers, granite counters, all new Samsung®stainless appliances including a quiet style dishwasher, five burner gas stove with self-cleaning oven, and French door stainless refrigerator.

Conveniently located in the galley kitchen is a dinette area for casual meals, and the adjacent more formal dining area opens to the spacious living room, augmented by a centerpiece wood burning fireplace, and highlighted by LED recessed lighting. Access to the expansive entertainment patio and newly sodded sunny flat grassy backyard is also available from this room. The amazing rear yard is perfect for evening get-togethers and outdoor enjoyment.

The two-car garage has fresh Shield-Crete epoxy slurry flooring, and new modern roll-up garage door with sidelights and Wi-Fi compatible belt drive Lift Master opener.

It’s coveted location also benefits from its proximity to both downtown areas of Belmont, as well as convenient travel corridors. Located near the Carlmont Village Shopping Center with a variety of retailers, restaurants and popular gathering spots, such as Starbucks, Vivace and Waterdog Tavern with pet friendly outdoor dining. Other businesses include ACE Hardware, and the upscale Lunardi’s Grocery.

For shopping, Hillsdale Mall is a short drive away and is undergoing a complete renovation, with stores such as Nordstrom, Macy’s, Williams-Sonoma, Sephora and Trader Joe’s. Enjoy dining options like Paul Martin’s American Grill, The Cheesecake Factory, California Pizza Kitchen, and The Counter.

Belmont is ideally located on the Peninsula between the Silicon Valley and San Francisco. It’s popular because of its close proximity to major travel arteries—Highways 101, 280, 92. Caltrain and San Francisco International Airport is also conveniently nearby.

Contact us to find out why more people are moving to the Mid-Peninsula. 650-508-1441

Belmont Fire. It Really Could Happen to You too

***NOTE** WE’RE MOST CERTAIN THAT THIS POST MAY CAUSE A FIRESTORM OF COMMENTS, AND REBUTTAL. SO LET’S KEEP THE DIALOGUE CONSTRUCTIVE AND BENE FICIAL FOR THE GREATER GOOD OF OUR NEIGHBORS.

Fire. It Really Could Happen to You too

Most of us watch with horror the fires which have ravaged our state recently. We sympathize with the loss of pets, and wildlife, and we agonize over lost family members, and the fire fighters who tragically yet valiantly gave their lives fighting for the safety of others, as well as the hero’s who continue to fight the incendiary fire storms in unimaginable conditions.

We also hope that the unthinkable never happens to us—but it could. Not thinking about the possibility of a fire in our canyons racing up the hillside and decimating our small neighborhood in minutes, is precisely what will give birth to a fire and a chance to survive, thrive, and claim victory.

What can we do?

Have an evacuation plan. Figure out how you will exit your property, what you will take with you, and that which you are willing to sacrifice to the fire, rather than risk your life.

Scan your important photos and store them in the cloud, in case you don’t have time to get them out. Most other material things can be replaced.

And take photos, video and otherwise catalog what you own. Once it’s gone, it will make replacing them with the help of your insurance company all that much easier.

But an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, and that’s really why we’re posting this. Belmont is known for its bucolic rolling hills and in our neighborhood, we are on a peninsula surrounded by the Belmont Open Space, (John Brooks Memorial Open Space), and the San Francsisco Watershed—both areas rife with dry grasses and trees which have never been thinned of dry underbrush. One can only imagine the volatile fuel these areas contain and a simple illegal firework or the spark from an unwitting mini-bike rider could cause of firestorm the likes of which has never been seen in the Bay Area. We feel the need to begin conversations about mitigating some of the most obvious threats to our area—unmanaged trees and brush in open spaces and residential neighborhoods.

And as most people know, it wasn’t the earthquake in 1906 that destroyed San Francisco, it was the resulting fires. Having a wrench to shut off the gas to your home in the event of an earthquake might be useful, if you have one, if you know how to use it, and if you happen to be home. But even if you shut off your gas, but your neighbor doesn’t, or can’t. You’ll both suffer the consequences along with the rest of your block, if not the entire neighborhood.

We installed a EFV gas shut-off value at our home years ago. In the event of an earthquake, or an excessive flow of gas in our home for any reason, this device will automatically shut off the gas.

What Gas Shut-Off Valves Do

The basic purpose of a gas shut off valve is to cut the flow of gas to your house in the event of an earthquake (or, depending on the type of valve, a potentially dangerous leak due to other causes.) Each device has a simple mechanism inside

which activates and blocks the flow of gas. Different manufacturers have their own unique methods of restricting gas flow but they all operate in essentially the same way.

Seismic Valves vs. Excess Flow Valves:
What’s the Difference?

Seismic valves are triggered by the ground shaking caused by earthquakes. When shaking reaches the level of the valve’s designated shut-off point (generally around 5.2-5.4 on the Richter Scale), the valve will automatically stop the flow of gas into your house. Once you have determined that there is no potential danger from fire or explosion, you must reset the valve manually to restart the flow of gas.

Excess Flow Valves are designed to cut off the flow of gas when they detect a higher flow rating than the allotted maximum flow of the home. If you have a line break, the escaping gas will cause excess flow detectable by the valve, which then immediately shut off the flow of gas into your house. Since they operate on a different principle, excess flow valves will not shut off the gas to your house simply because of an earthquake.
Both types of valves offer effective protection from the threat of fire or explosion from natural gas. Simply choose the right valve for your particular application.

A local plumber can easily install this device at your home. It’s a simple procedure that takes about 30 minutes, and cost us only $200, which at the time, included the valve.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25+ years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario

 

 

 

OFF-MARKET OPPORTUNITY 1926 Oak Knoll Drive, Belmont

Every so often, there’s a home so special that words cannot do it justice. We could describe it as chic, modern, high-tech, luxurious, inviting and comfortable, but one really must see this home in person to appreciate the complete experience.

This nine-year new classically crafted home has been designed in a contemporary style best described as offering clean lines, proportions, open layouts and abundant natural light. Additional characteristics include flat and shallow-pitched roofs, large expanses of glass, clean unencumbered walls, and an intrinsic connection between the indoor and outdoor space. The result? Gracious, streamlined spaces that radiate harmony.

The entire main floor is thoughtfully laid out with a ground level bedroom, full bath, great room, grand dining area, and kitchen combination. The great room on the main level, encompasses a professional styled kitchen, impressive communal dining area, and an eat-at bar and separate enclave for casual meals or conversations. Functionality includes a six burner Viking® stainless stove and oven combination, warming drawer, deep soft-close drawers while industrial-styled custom concrete countertops complete the chic feel. With a separate stainless prep sink and custom metro shelved pantry, this kitchen remains deeply functional while staying true to the minimalist aesthetic.

Rooms are naturally illuminated with a combination of celestial skylights and transom room transitions. Floor–to-ceiling windows feature expansive views of San Francisco City, the Bay, Mt. Diablo as well as 180º views from the pronounced view deck—harmoniously integrating the indoors with the world.

Bamboo hardwood flooring and stainless cabled railings flow gracefully throughout the home and the inverted layout with the bedrooms below, exemplifies the views from the upstairs main living area.

Down the naturally illuminated open stairwell, we find the lower level bedrooms—perfectly located for warm summer nights. The lower area consists of a main hall with nine foot ceilings leading to the laundry area, two bedrooms serviced by a central hall bath, and a bonus room or 5thbedroom. Also on this level is the owner’s ensuite, which enjoys its own private deck access with spa overlooking the bay. A dual floating sink vanity is in the owner’s suite bath along with a seamless separate shower enclosure and oversized soaking tub and a walk-in closet is nearby.

To visit 1926 Oak Knoll is to realize the passion that went into creating this unique home. We are excited to proudly present this enchanting retreat— welcome home!

FEATURES:

HOME

  • Nine-year new construction with ~68 posts and piers
  • Quiet cul-de-sac
  • Protected micro-climate location
  • Street level entry main living area-reverse floor plan
  • Hardwood Bamboo floors
  • Smooth stucco & sheetrock wall finish
  • Contemporary styling
  • Transom windows
  • Solid core doors
  • Led recessed lighting
  • Stainless cabled railings
  • Dual pane Anderson windows
  • Tankless water heater

MAIN LEVEL

  • Great room with ~11’ gradient ceilings
  • Large communal dining area
  • Celestial windows with automated opening system
  • Open style great room floor plan with pitched ceilings and stunning views
  • Corner low-heat glass fireplace
  • Office, Media room or additional bedroom
  • Two car garage—S.F. views, and plumbed for H&C convenient car washing

CHEF’S KITCHEN

  • Six burner Viking® stove & stainless hood
  • Built-in Viking® microwave
  • Side prep sink
  • Deep cabinetry drawer for professional cooking vessels
  • Walk-in pantry includes custom metro shelving
  • Appliance garage
  • Built-in warming drawer
  • Stainless basin sinks
  • Stainless floating hood
  • Custom concrete counters

FUNCTIONAL VIEW DECKS

  • Multiple private view decks with spa—plumbed for natural gas outdoor grill
  • 180º  bay views of San Francisco downtown & Bay, Mt. Diablo to the south bay
  • Eastern profile for dramatic sunrises year round

GROUNDS

  • Level lower area with large flat paved space suitable for basketball (hoop installed w/lighting), play area or entertaining
  • Gardening beds
  • Mature plantings on almost ¼ acre includes chicken coop and run

OWNER’S SUITE

  • Expansive walk-in closet, soaking tub and separate seamless shower enclosure,
  • Dual raised sinks on floating cabinetry
  • Access to private second level decks and spa
  • ~9’ ceilings

LOWER LEVEL

  • Owner’s Suite and three additional bedrooms
  • Amazing lower level storage areas with ideal wine storage capacity
  • 2nd level room could be 5th bedroom
  • 9’ ceilings

Prop 13 May Die a Slow Death

Do you remember proposition 13? If you do, you probably own a home, but prop 13 may be dying a slow death, at least for industrial and commercial properties.

THE BACKSTORY: On June 6th, 1978, nearly two-thirds of California’s voters passed Proposition 13, reducing property tax rates on homes, and businesses by about 57%. Proposition 13 forever altered the way property taxes would be levied on real property, or so voters were promised.

Under Proposition 13 tax reform, property tax value was rolled back and frozen at the 1976 assessed value level. Property tax increases on any given property were limited to no more than 2% per year as long as the property was not sold. Once sold, the property was reassessed at 1% of the sale price, and the 2% yearly cap became applicable to future years.

Prior to Proposition 13, the property tax rate throughout California averaged a little less than 3% of market value. Additionally, there were no limits on increases for the tax rate or on individual ad valorem charges. (“Ad valorem” refers to taxes based on the assessed value of property). Some properties were reassessed 50% to 100% in just one year and their owners’ property tax bills increased accordingly.

But change is inevitable, and that’s exactly what proponents of the newly proposed initiative are counting on.

WHAT’S IN STORE: A new ballot initiative that takes aim at how commercial properties are taxed under California’s Proposition 13 could raise $6 to $10 billion more each year for schools and other programs and services, according to a new analysis by the Legislative Analyst’s Office.

At the heart of the initiative, (which is still being reviewed by the state attorney general’s office), is a property tax law enshrined in the state constitution since 1978. Proposition 13 caps taxes for all kinds of properties — residential and commercial — at 1 percent of a property’s purchase price, allowing for increases of no more than 2 percent per year, even if the value of the property triples or quadruples over time.

The initiative would change the constitution so that commercial and industrial properties — and land not intended for housing development — are instead taxed based on their current market value. The idea, long favored by critics of Proposition 13, is often called a “split roll” since it would not affect protections for residential properties. Businesses whose total property holdings are valued below $2 million would be exempt.

Supporters of the ballot initiative include the League of Women Voters, California Calls, PICO California and other civic and community groups.

But that’s not the end it. The California Association of REALTORS wasn’t to put more teeth into the initiative by adding an initiative to the proposition 13 overhaul that changes how those homeowners over 55 can transfer their tax base.

Currently, Proposition 60, enacted into law in 1986, allows for the one-time transfer of your current home’s tax base to a replacement property of equal or lesser value after the age of 55 of either spouse, providing that the replacement property was located within the same county.

The problem for most people wishing to benefit from this tax base transfer is they are limited to moving within the county in which they currently reside, or moving to one of only a handful of reciprocal counties (Alameda, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Ventura, San Mateo, Santa Clara, or El Dorado).

The new proposed initiative tied to proposition 13 amendments would allow homeowners over 55 to carry with them their current tax base whenever, (as many times as they like), and wherever they move—so long as they stay within California.

Proponents of the initiative say it will help free up the housing inventory shortage, as many long-time homeowners are reticent to move if they can’t carry their low tax base. While opponents, such as San Francisco-based YIMBY Action, a pro-development, millennial-led group say that this initiative is just helping the rich get richer—implicit in their argument is that if you own a home, you must be rich.

Thanks to the San Jose Mercury for providing much of the article’s investigative analysis and insight.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario

 

 

 

Belmont to Scuttle Specific Plan Redevelopment

Belmont will announce Monday, plans to scuttle the downtown redevelopment referred to as the Belmont Specific Plan, in favor of more cost-effective measures, a high ranking official said speaking on the condition of anonymity, and not wanting to spoil the surprise.

He went on to say, “Belmont has always been seen as the red headed step-child to its prodigal son to the south, San Carlos. In our redevelopment analysis, we found that housing prices have been held artificially low, and the quality of life lacking due to the absence of a vibrant downtown. That was the genesis of the Belmont Specific Plan, but opposition has been mounting and with cost overruns in sight, we have found a more cost-effective alternative”.

Called a bold and unprecedented move, in a closed door session Tuesday, Belmont brokered a deal to combine the cities of Belmont and San Carlos into one new enclave which will be called BelCarlos.

He went on to say, “This actually solves all of our problems, at a fraction of the cost, and can be implemented by the end of 2018. Look, people have been driving to San Carlos and dining out there for years, it’s not like they won’t let us in, but combining the two cities into one, means nobody can claim we don’t have a downtown anymore.

Initial cost estimates associated with this boundary line adjustment would be about $300,000 for Belmont, and $500,000 for San Carlos, because they have prettier signs he said.

Winning the Bid May Actually Be Losing

Are agents terrible at pricing homes for sale, or is there another reason so many homes sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars over the asking price?

When a home is underpriced, or overpriced for that matter, it often has to do with the fact that the listing agent is from out of the area. They miss the mark because in their home turf, homes may be selling for less (or more) than where their listing is located, and when they apply their native pricing strategies to a listing they have out of the area, they can be pretty far off at times.

The same goes for an agent who represents a buyer in an area where they’re not as familiar with the local home values. They may grossly overestimate a home’s worth, based upon their experience in the area where they concentrate, thus recommending an offer price to a buyer that is too high and artificially driving the prices up.

Then there’s the phenomenon known as the “Winner’s Curse”, hence while you may be winning the bid, you’re actually losing. The winner’s curse may occur in any auction where less than complete information is available. The winner’s curse says that in such an auction, the winner will tend to overpay. The winner may overpay or be “cursed” in one of two ways: 1) the winning bid exceeds the intrinsic value of the asset or 2) the value of the asset is less than the bidder anticipated, so the bidder may still have a net gain, but will be worse off than anticipated.

The Winner’s Curse phenomenon also manifests itself in the home buying process in several additional ways, some of which are introduced by the buyers.

When a buyer tries to outbid their competition by purposefully offering more than the home should be worth, just to win the auction, they may win the bid, but by definition, they paid too much, since the average bid typically defines the value, and the winning bid is the outlier.

Since homes are not a commodity, as in oil or gas for example, wherein the value is pretty well understood and, more importantly, oil is oil and it either makes sense to purchased it at “x” price or it doesn’t. Wherein when it comes to homes, at least those located outside of tract areas, are unique unto themselves, and buying a similar home may not be nearly as emotionally appealing. In this way, it’s more like adopting a child, no two are the same.

From a listing agent’s standpoint, pricing a home at the selling price of the home across the street typically backfires. Here’s why. Let’s say that the home across the street was listed at $1,000,000, and sold with ten offers for $1,400,000. The high bidder, who won the bid, and by definition paid too much—because they paid more than any other buyer was willing to bid—is now out of the pool of potential bidders for the next home—the one you just listed across the street. This means out of the nine residual buyers, none were willing to pay $1,400,000 and some may have even already moved on, or are in contract on another home. What did the other nine buyers bid? Only that listing agent will ever know, but the next highest bidder is the one you need to attract and who knows how much they offered.  And this of course assumes that the homes are identical—which they never are. The second highest bidder might not even like your listing, might be out of town the week you go on the market, which means now you are relegated to the third, fourth, or fifth bidders in order of their declining tolerance for bidding or ability to pay.

This is one reason agents will intentionally list a home at what seems to be irresponsible—far below what it might eventually sell for, based upon the recent comparable sales in the area. And while this practice might be viewed by some as false advertising, which is illegal, as the home might well be priced lower than recent sales, it might actually be priced appropriately for its intrinsic value.

In residential real estate valuation, there are several ways to ascertain the intrinsic value of a home. The three accepted practices in real estate are known as the Comparative Market Approach, also known as the sales comparison approach, the Principle of Substitution, (what else could I buy), and the Cost Approach, (how much would it cost to build a similar home from scratch).

Agents and buyers alike tend to rely heavily on the sales comparison approach, as it makes sense to compare the home they are buying to those which have recently sold, but if the buyers are bidding too much on homes, than the comparable sales are less trustworthy, and looking at the Cost Approach, or what it would cost to build a new home might be more effective, if nothing more as a check and balance against the price one might offer.

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Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario