2019 Housing Round-Up Let Down

2019 Housing Round-Up

We’re just stepping into the 2020 housing market and it’s too early to tell how the housing it will play out this year. That data typically starts to develop in February-May, as buyers come out of winter hibernation and begin looking at homes in earnest. And with the better weather on the horizon, sellers are more inclined to put their home on the market.

These two forces converge each year to dictate the supply and demand balance, thus determining the strength of the market for sellers, or advantages for buyers. A shortage of supply could continue to drive up values, while a shortage in demand would have just the opposite effect.

We had been indicating this trend may be on the horizon with this very blog back in 2018 with this post about lower returns.

San Mateo County results which provides a more macro-scale, illustrate this.

SAN MATEO COUNTY REPORT

The median home value dropped 1.3 percentage points YOY, which, in and of itself is not an earth-shattering indicator, but the amount sellers received of their asking price is—it dropped 5% YOY.

The leftover inventory of homes for sale at year-end grew 22%, while the number of new listings YOY dropped 6.24% and sales dropped 3.1%. It also took six more days to sell the average home.

BELMONT HOME REPORT

Being a much smaller market sample, the data is less reliable than looking at the entire county, but by examining the entire year—rather than an isolated YOY comparison for each month, the data spikes and troughs tend to somewhat smooth out.

In Belmont, home sales dropped 6.35%, new listings dropped by 10.65%, the percent a seller received down 6%, the median sale price—dropping 4.26%, and the DOM, or time it took to sell a home, up, 30%.

The housing market had a tumultuous end in 2018, and yet comparing the year-end results for 2018 and 2019, we can see that this balance shifted even further away from the unsustainable and feverish seller’s market of the past seven-year bull run, to a more normal, balanced market. We’re seeing the pendulum move from that of a seller’s market, to a more evenly balanced market in full swing.

If you want to know what we believe may very well be in store for us in 2020, read our newest blog post on Election Year Jitters—How it will Effect the Market.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomesand on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

2519 Carmelita Avenue, Belmont $1,6798,000

  • Three generous bedrooms including the owners ensuite
  • Two updated baths

We just listed this really neat home nestled in the hills of Belmont, yet very close to the Carlmont Shopping Center.

We love the circular driveway. More homes on Belmont’s notoriously narrow streets would benefit from one of these.

The rear yard is also very cool. It’s landscaped with a sort of nod to Sonoma’s minimalistic natural foliage, and has outcroppings of bedrock adding a natural interest feature.

The home has newly refinished hardwood floors which cover the split level home from top to bottom. The sophisticated layout, offers the Owner’s en-suite upstairs alongside a large duet office with view decks.

If you are looking for a move-in condition home on a quiet street in Belmont, look no further than this link to more information.

Belmont Home Values in State of Flux

Looking at homes sales statistics is always more interesting when there’s movement in the market.

As seen in the graph below for San Mateo County, the median home price dropped from the peak in April of 2018, and it took over a year to finally rebound which wasn’t until May of 2019 when the median price just barely eclipsed the previous year’s high.

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But that’s not the end of the story, already we’re back down to a median home price matching that seen in October of 2018—when the market began a four-month decline.

Belmont has seen a similar pattern recently, although perhaps with swings more magnified due to the smaller transaction sample size.

This is the year-over-year comparison for Belmont:

SALES

Down by 5 over 2018 to 18—27% decrease

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

Down by $100,000 to $1,700,000 in 2019—down ~6%

DAYS ON MARKET

Down to only 16 on average, from 28 in 2018

CURRENT INVENTORY

Four more homes are currently available than in 2018—a 25% increase

NEW LISTINGS

Eight more listings in June of this year than last—44% increase

MONTHS OF INVENTORY [The time it would take to sell the current inventory at the current pace of sales.]

Up from less than a month of inventory in 2018 to 1.3 months.

What this is telling us is what we are also feeling from our own business and the sentiments of our colleagues—that the market is not as sizzling hot as it was just a year ago. It’s still a seller’s market, but the inevitable swing of the pendulum back to center before heading the other direction may be upon us.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomesand on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

County Home Values Rebound Slightly

As welcome news to homeowners, yesterday, Standard & Poor’s posted the MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) for March 2019 illuminating another uptick in the market after a steady four-month decline. This is the second month in a row showing rising values since the low in January 2019. This latest data point in March puts home values slightly ahead of where they were in April of 2018.

The monthly S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices uses the “repeat sales method” of index calculation – an approach that is widely recognized as the premiere methodology for indexing housing prices – which incorporates data on properties that have sold at least twice, in order to capture the true appreciated value of each specific sales unit.

Our Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), is comprised of home sales in Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508-1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Home Values Drop in April

We’ve continued our articles focused on the real estate market’s woes since the reverse in direction in Q4 of 2018 when home values and sales activity dropped precipitously. In fact, the only thing that increased during that time was the number of price reductions and the time it took to sell a home.

In our last blog article on our local market, we wrote about our MSA posting declining numbers in the last four consecutive months. Since then February’s numbers were released (they lag real time by three months), and the result was an uptick in the housing values of 1.57 pts. over January. And while that’s better than a fifth month of dropping home values, to put that into perspective, the YOY figures from April 2018 as compared to this April showed a decline in values of 1.7%.

In Belmont, a similar market withdrawal occurred:

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It’s fairly easy to see that the market isn’t what it once was. Every category except for the Months of Inventory is worse off than a year ago. Notice that while the size of homes selling in 2019 was larger, we associated a negative connotation to it because if larger homes are selling the median home price should be higher—not lower.

We like to think that we are considered to be trusted advisors in our community. Wherever the facts and statistics lead us, that’s what we report. On one had we were amused and on the other annoyed but never surprised to find the main-stream media hyping market signals without even understanding what they mean. Take this recent article from the San Francisco Chronicle. Note that admittedly Chu in this article has no idea why sales are down. Perhaps by delving into the statistics more, her own questions might have been answered.

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And this is the headline use to lure unsuspecting readers to view the entire article:

“SF home sales drop, suggesting slowdown in market”—San Francisco Chronicle, April 25, 2019

Slowdown in the market, or a slowdown in sales? Because a slowdown in sales could mean home prices are increasing if inventory levels remain low.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomesand on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Can the Bay Area Housing Market Heyday be Over?

The release of the latest Case-Shiller Report could signal a shot across the bow for sellers considering a move. 

Though often outperforming, and somewhat insulated from many parts of the U.S., the Bay Area is not immune to fluctuations in the housing market. These most recent statisticsfrom the highly regarded Case-Shiller report (for San Francisco Metropolitan Statistical Area) reveal a four-month downward trend which began in October of 2018, and has continued through the latest reporting period—January of 2019 (the index has a two-month lag in reporting). A downward trend like this has not occurred since before the market began a sustained rebound in March of 2012.

What is the Case-Schiller Report?

The monthly S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices uses the “repeat sales method” of index calculation – an approach that is widely recognized as the primary methodology for indexing housing prices – which uses data on properties that have sold at least twice, in order to capture the true appreciated value of each specific sales unit. 

Our Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), is comprised of home sales in Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties.

This study indicates that our MSA home sales index has not endured more than eight consecutive months of declining values since the era of the modern “Great Recession”, which began in December of 2007 and lasted in earnest until June of 2009.

As previously mentioned, this study encompasses several counties—each with varying degrees of volatility, and so while one county may be experiencing a downturn, another county could be resurging. This study may be the best available, but it’s important to remember that real estate is hyper local in the Bay Area, similar to weather-related “micro-climates” that you constantly hear about.

According to this data, the year-over year appreciation in the MSA pool of home sales in January 2019 was a paltry 1.8%. Contrasting that to the same annual period the previous year of 25.8%. (apples to apples).  Since this most recent downturn, values have dropped 4.4%.

The Take-Away

Will this downward trend continue? That of course remains to be seen, but to date home sales in our immediate area do not seem to be encountering the same resistance that was prevalent beginning in fall of 2018 and lasting through January of this year.

With that in mind, the bond yield curve inverted last month, which has often been a precursor to a recession. Home prices may have peaked in September of last year, but more recent sales this spring suggest the housing market remains quite robust.  This month’s Case-Shiller report, due to be published on April 30th, could be an interesting foretelling of what may be in store for us.

Featured Photograph “Dark Tunnel” by Lisa Lemmons-Powers also available to purchase. Be sure to browse her amazing collection of photography.

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Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25+ years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomesand on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Belmont Adds to Bottleneck

Belmont, CA

Riding high on accolades for installing a traffic light at the corner of South Road and Ralston Avenue, Belmont sprang into action and is in the process of installing another traffic light at the entrance of Ralston Intermediate School. 

The department of Public works was reached for comment today and have announced that they’re so excited about the improved bottleneck, they have a go-ahead to install five more lights to the existing seven currently in use, just to see what will happen.

“We expect that 2019 will be a banner year for Ralston Avenue construction projects and new traffic light installations. Traffic from Oracle during commute hours has gotten out-of-hand and we’re combating this with a means to make traversing Ralston a very painful experience hoping commuters will opt for more friendly tributaries to highways 280 and 92”.

[Drew and Christine] stood out among the other agents we interviewed as the most prepared, the most researched and just generally being a wealth of knowledge about the Belmont real estate market.Hanson & Charise Drew and Christine Morgan are hands down the best Real Estate Agents on the Peninsula. Without hesitation we would recommend them to anyone serious about finding a home. We’ve worked with other agents in the past and the experience was nothing like working with Drew and Christine.Ian & Nicole They were incredibly good at narrowing down what we were looking for and never pushed us. In fact, we saw a few houses that we could’ve settled for and Drew talked us out of settling which — was so refreshing to find in a real estate agent.Josh & Karen

Home Sales Slower in 2019

Last year ended with much indecision regarding the future of our local housing market, and since there are typically fewer sales at the beginning of a new year, we thought it prudent to compare the first two months of 2019 to last year at the same time to better understand the state of our current market.

On an empirical note, we’ve sold all of our listings his year at our same pace—11 days on the market, but with fewer offers. All have sold over the asking price, but not for as much as in recent years past.

MEDIAN PRICE

This is always a good indicator of what the rest of the stats might reveal because if prices are down, so too typically is everything else.

2018 Median Home Price   $1,697,750

2019 Median Home Price   $1,649,000

Change =                               $48,750 or 3% drop YOY

*NOTE: The size of homes selling in 2018 were on average 9% larger which could indicate an increase in the home prices, not a decrease year-over-year.

HOMES SALES (Units)

2018                           20

2019                           13

YOY Change =          7 or 54% Decrease in sales in 2019 so far

PERCENT RECEIVED OF THE ASKING PRICE

2018                           114

2019                           102

YOY Change =          12% Less over asking in 2019

While sales in 2019 to date are slower than 2018, homes are on the market for about the same time—14 days.

And though sellers are taking offers that as a percentage are less over their asking price than in 2018 by a whopping 11%, in real dollars they may be ahead of where we were one year ago.

With the inclement weather, buyers may have perhaps had less motivation or incentive to go out and look at homes, but virtually the same number of new listings came on the market in both years during this period, and thus sales declined so the “Months of Inventory”, or the tine it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales, has gone up dramatically from .9 months in February of 2018 to 1.3 montsh this year—though still historically very low. If more inventory (homes for sale) develop, prices could see further erosion in home values.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomesand on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.