Best of Tour for April 14th 2015

The definition of a mansion varies from person to person but we’re weighing in and calling this best of tour home in San Carlos so unique as to rise to the level.

Perched on the prestigious Hyde Park development with sweeping views of the surrounding canyons and San Francisco Bay, this stately home offers a plethora of elegant verandas and vistas to choose from.168 Queens Lane

Swank and extraordinary best describes this home and it comes with an equally extraordinary price tag for San Carlos where the average home sold this year for just over $1,400,000—yet there’s nothing average about this home. Listed by Coldwell Banker at a cool $4,988,000.

Click here for more images and details…

 

 

168 Queens Lane Kitchen

Veranda

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

You can find them on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and also find them on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

 

 

Best of Tour for April 7th 2015

Today’s Best of Tour was chosen due to its awe factor of being what I would consider my dream home. Imagine living lakeside in a mountain retreat but really just minutes from downtown Redwood City with its nightlife and great restaurants, not to mention the “Weather Best by Government Test” slogan the city boasts.

But get your wallet out as this amazing five bedroom five and one-half 4,250 square foot home will set you back a cool $4,498,000 if there are no multiple offers…

Click here for more pictures…
1005 Lakeview Way kitchen1005 Lakeview Way aerial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1005 Lakeview Way Living room

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

You can find them on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and also find them on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Listed by Coldwell Banker

 

Best of Tour for March 31st 2015

We see a lot of homes on tour but this home stood out as our best of tour because of its outdoor recreational areas for all ages and the indoor entertaining space for large gatherings.
This stunning 6 bedroom, 5 bath Tudor style home is in the sought-after Emerald Hills location. This rare opportunity affords one a large, level lot with a rural feel, yet it remains close to 280, downtown Redwood City and San Carlos. This ideal floor plan offers plenty of room for large gatherings and entertaining, with a master en suite and 3 additional bedrooms upstairs, 2 bedrooms downstairs, including extra-large bedroom suitable for in-laws/au pair. A “Great Room style family room with custom entertainment center and wet bar is open to the remodeled kitchen. Enjoy resort-like living with pool, fire pit and outdoor kitchen including a recessed outdoor flat panel TV for the sports enthusiast in your household.

Belmont’s Housing Market is Dead?

Drastic Drop in Inventory
Drastic Drop in Inventory

What Happened to Belmont’s Housing Market?

Talk about a slow start…Belmont has started this year with a big yawn when it comes to the housing market. New listings year to date are down 67% over this time last year—and 2014 was a slow year for listings.

San Carlos on the other hand is enjoying a 27% increase in listings to date at a median price 30% higher than last year.

One hopes we can begin to catch up! Stay tuned…

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

 

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

 

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Belmont Enjoys Steady Home Price Increases–2014 a Year in Review

Belmont Enjoys Steady Home Price Increases

Since the housing recovery began in earnest in 2012, Belmont has enjoyed a steady increase in home values. Since 2010 Belmont’s home values have increased 44%, while year-over-year prices continued to increase 17% in 2014.

Belmont Median Home Price

Part of the rapid increase in home values is due to historically low interest rates coming off a reduction in home values during the Great Recession. Another influence continues to be the influx of new jobs which jump started the need for housing in 2012. But the scarce housing inventory may have been the largest contributing factor by creating bidding wars and over exuberant offer prices.

To put the meager housing inventory into perspective, there were four times the number of homes for sale at the end of 2010 and 2011 than there are now, while new listings in 2014 were a quarter of what they were in 2010.

The time a home sat on the market dropped 70%, from 52 days down to just 16, while the percent a seller received increased 10% as sale prices averaged 109% of the asking price last year.

It’s safe to say that Belmont’s robust housing market has become self-evident. But how does Belmont stack up to other nearby cities such as San Carlos?

San Carlos bested Belmont in the median price category coming in at $1,425,000—11 % higher than Belmont for the year. The rate of appreciation over the past four years as also been higher as San Carlos home values increased 52% since 2010 as compared to Belmont’s 44%.

When compared to San Mateo County as a whole, a different picture develops as both Belmont and San Carlos are at the front of the pack. San Mateo County reported a 15% increase in the median home price year-over-year—with a median home value still 21% lower than that of Belmont’s. Here’s the supply and demand answer as to why home values are skyrocketing—the available homes for sale in all of San Mateo County dropped 73% over 2010 and the number of new listings dropped 21%.

We start 2015 with the lowest inventory of homes for sale since we started tracking home statistics in 1998. This will invariably create more multiple offer scenarios forcing buyers to outbid one another for their ideal home. This in turn will continue to put upward pressure on home values. And if interest rates remain stable (currently at a 1.5 year low), we expect another year of double digit appreciation, though we also expect the rate to slow as it did last year, down 2% from 2013.

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

If you are considering selling your home we’re somebody you should know. Be sure and include us in your interview process—we’ll show you our proprietary EXCITE listing program which has netted our sellers more than any other top Belmont agents.

 

 

 

Winter Home Prices Increase

Winter home prices increase and buck the trends of a winter slowdowns.

We’re getting close to our most anticipated analysis—the year end summary for Belmont. But before those numbers are in the history books, we are closing out the year with November’s home sales report.

The Belmont home market continues to show strong growth after a lackluster fall market. Typically we see a strong push for home sales after Labor Day and a winter hibernation period once we get past Thanksgiving. This year seems to be at odds with historical trends as seen in the median home price which has risen steadily since August.

This November in Belmont the median home price was at $1,342,000 which was only eclipsed once in July of this year. Last November the median home price was $1,089,000. That translates into a 23% increase in the median home price year-over-year.

Did larger homes sell this year artificially skewing the median home price higher? The answer is yes. The size homes which sold this November were 18% larger. If we account for this in the median home price analysis we arrive at a more reasonable appreciation level of 5% year–over-year—which of course is just an approximation.

As prices get higher, demand wanes and the rate of appreciation levels off—as is demonstrated in the above numbers.

SALES & NEW LISTINGS

The number of homes sales dropped 44% year-over year since last November. Upward pressure on home values is being fed by the lack of inventory as new listings dropped 20% as well.

PERCENT RECEIVED

The amount which Seller’s received of their asking price was essentially unchanged at 107 % of asking.

OVER-UNDER

While 72% of all home sales sold for over the asking price—unchanged since last November, this year no seller’s had to adjust their asking prices lower. Last November 20% of sellers lowered their asking price for on average $200,000—indicating a slightly more robust November this year.

On a macro-level, the San Francisco Metropolitan Statistical analysis (the SFMSA) prepared by Standard & Poor’s, and referred to as the Case-Shiller study, reported a decline from August to September of .2%. The Case-Shiller uses a repeat sales pair methodology—virtually watching the same home sell over time. Not that .2% is a monumental shift in trends, since as can be seen in the chart below, seasonal factors cause even a large area like our MSA to fluctuate to a much greater degree.

This graph compares the MSA for our area year-over-year for the past three recovery years. Note that a fair amount of each year’s appreciation (increase in the index) occurs in the first two quarters of each year.

MSA Year over Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Fed Up Buyers Take Action

Fed Up Buyers Take Action

Buyers, tired of multiple offers, are forming an alliance in an effort to alter the current inequitable supply and demand of housing inventory. Known as Buyers Usurping Real Property, or BURP, Their grass roots movement is gaining momentum as their “just sit on the fence” attitude is resonating with other frustrated buyers.

Implicit in their long term goal is to bring real estate prices down and shift the market from a seller’s market to that of one which benefits buyers, by resisting the urge to compete in the housing market.

Ben Dover, the collation’s founding father and leader was quoted as saying, “Just say no to multiple offers. Sellers have had it their way long enough and frankly we’re tired of this”. He went on to elaborate, “The market should have shifted by now—we all have life plans and we need to move forward. We’re committed to remain in our rentals forever if need beSay No To Homes [rather] than purchase at today’s inflated prices”. Asked what he thought about the inflated rents, he responded, “Well, that’s just market forces at work isn’t it?”

Mr. Dover continued, “We’re confident we’ve got sellers with their backs to the wall. If we continue to resist the temptation to purchase a home, our movement will be a success. We plan on waiting out the winter market and spring into action next year, when our boycott will have created enough inventory and affordable housing for all.

Asked if he thought the actions of his devoted followers would be enough to alter the course of the housing market, Mr. Dover reasoned, “It had better we’re banking on it”.

Housing Market Prices Halve

With the Autumnal Equinox just around the corner, we look back a great summer. Now to get caught up on the housing market since we’ve took some much needed time off.

On the national level…we gleam this insight from Standard and Poor’s website…

“Home price gains continue to ease as they have since last fall,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “For the first time since February 2008, all cities showed lower annual rates than the previous month. Other housing indicators – starts, existing home sales and builders’ sentiment – are positive. Taken together, these point to a more normal housing sector.

“The monthly National Index rose 0.9% in June. While all 20 cities saw higher home prices over the last 12 months, all experienced slower gains. In San Francisco, the pace of price increases halved since late last summer. The Sun Belt cities – Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami and Tampa – all remain a third or more below their peak prices set almost a decade ago.

“Bargain basement mortgage rates won’t continue forever; recent improvements in the labor markets and comments from Fed chair Janet Yellen and others hint that interest rates could rise as soon as the first quarter of 2015. Rising mortgage rates won’t send housing into a tailspin, but will further dampen price gains.”

“All 20 cities used for the Case-Shiller report saw their year-over-year rates weaken in June. For the second consecutive month, San Francisco saw its rate decelerate by almost three percentage points – from 18.4% in April to 12.9% in June. Phoenix showed its smallest year-over-year gain of 6.9% since March 2012. Cleveland showed a marginal increase of 0.8% over the last 12 months while Las Vegas led with a gain of 15.2%. All cities reported price increases for the third consecutive month; it would have been a fourth had New York not declined 0.4% in March. San Francisco posted its eighth consecutive price increase but showed its smallest gain of 0.3% since February. Five cities – Detroit, Las Vegas, New York, Phoenix and San Diego – posted larger gains in June than in May. Dallas and Denver continue to set new peaks while Detroit remains the only city below its January 2000 value.”

Everybody wants to know when this crazy market will end.  People just can’t imagine that it will continue at this pace—and of course it won’t, and it didn’t and we’ve been predicating this all along; that the rate of appreciation would wane once home prices rebounded to levels which are sustainable.

The housing market dropped too far and filling that void happened very fast—essentially 2012 until now. We are now reaching new high home values and people are just plain being priced out—with fewer and fewer people who can afford the median price home.  But while the rate of appreciation is slowing, home values are continuing to rise, just at a much more sustainable and slower pace.

The San Francisco MSA (which consists of the counties of San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Contra Costa and Alameda), while experiencing a slowdown in the rate of appreciation (by almost half), nevertheless still enjoyed a 12.9% increase year-over-year.  You can see a graph we’ve put together of the SF MSA data points illustrating the trend over the past 27 years.

*Note—the Standard & Poor’s Index lags the market by three months.

The good news is a home won’t cost you 25% more next year, probably just around 10%. But who wants to pay a 10% penalty for waiting?

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Home Value Increases Taper in July

July is a great month in Belmont as the wind winds down a bit in anticipation of our Indian summer.

We hope everyone had a great Fourth of July weekend and our slightly warmer than usual weekend.

If you are interested in the local microclimates in Belmont you can visit Weather Underground’s web site where folks like us upload our personal home weather station data. It’s interesting to see the various Belmont of micro-climate pockets.

On to the numbers…

[Click on the picture for a large view]
[Click on the picture for a large view]

 

Talk about low inventory–real estate has been very slow this week as you can imagine. Tuesday was our Broker tour day and there no new listings in Belmont or San Carlos to even view. We can’t remember the last time that happened.

In this post we visit the home sales in Belmont for the month of June 2014.

SALES

Sales of existing single family homes dropped 15% over last year from 26 sales to 22 this June.

 

 

 

 

MEDIAN PRICE

Belmont’s median home price rose almost 20% over June of last year. The size of homes selling in the two periods also dropped almost 10% from 1975 square feet in 2013 to 1778 square feet in 2014 which does nothing but exacerbate the median price increase since for 20% more you can now buy a home 10% smaller. At $1,099,000, though, it’s a steep drop from May’s astounding median price of $1,300,000. Of course the homes which sold in May were over 16% larger and the median price only dropped 8.4% so there’s still a paper net gain of 8%.

Compared to June of last year, single family residential median price levels rose in all counties with Santa Cruz County up 20%, Monterey County up 16%, San Mateo up 14%, San Benito up 15% and Santa Clara County up 12%.

DOM

The time it took to sell the average home in Belmont was 12 days—down from 14 last year.

OVER ASKING SALES

91% of the homes sold over asking in June of 2014 compared to 88% during the same time last year.

PERCENT RECEIVED OF ASKING

This is the one statistic that indicates a slowdown in the rate of market appreciation. In 2013 the average seller received 112% of their asking price. That dropped to 109% this month—exactly on par with last month.

What does this drop mean? It’s probably indicative of values getting closer to where they should be for now. The initial increase we have seen over the last two years was clearly unsustainable but also understandable.

Prices had dropped well below expected value levels and that deficit was easily wiped out in 2012 as the market began its rebound in earnest. In 2013 we saw the rebound continue into unchartered waters and prices hit a high watermark. This year we see more of the same but as prices continue to rise fewer people can qualify for the median priced home and begin to seek less expensive cities—watch out east bay.

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

 

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Drew & Christine Morgan did not necessarily participate in these sales.

 

Home Values Peaked?

Have Belmont home values we peaked for the year?

Our spring housing market always makes for exciting times—it sort of sets the pace for the year.

Typically we see prices jump the most in the spring and level off around summer. Despite the rumblings that our market is cooling off, this year appears to be no different than we’ve experienced in past trends. Any perceived “cooling off” is expressed in the rate of increases waning, and compounded by seasonal fluctuations.

In the graph below we plotted the percent a seller received of their initial asking price since 2012 when the market rebound began in earnest. This is a good indicator of the level of competition in the market. Notice how our local market competition increases most in the spring and price increases follow suit. Why is that? We have a few intrinsic theories and if you’d like the inside scoop here are our musings.

! Belmont Peaks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
SCHOOLS

First there’s the school enrollment calendar. In Belmont that opens in February and ends in June. Of course getting your child into your preferred school means hitting the initial enrollment period—or at least the second one. We believe the school enrollment calendar tends to influence a buyers decision to act quickly in the spring market. HINT: You cannot enroll your child in the Belmont/Redwood Shores School District without proof of residency.

School Enrollment Period Belmont

 

 

 

 

WEATHER

Another influencing factors is that the weather improves in the spring. Buyers and sellers come out of winter hibernation and the better the weather the sooner they do so. And more buyers means more competition while inventory remains low until school ends in June. Over 65% of all new listings are listed in quarters 2&3—April through September.

COMPETITIVE SPIRIT

Let’s face it, not only are home buyers competing for great jobs they compete at the home buying game as well—and they hate to lose.

Indulge us for a moment—Imagine there are six horses racing that are competing for first place in a race. But after each race the 1st place winner must retire. This leaves the second place horse the favorite in the next race, and all things being equal he now takes 1st place and then also retires—but the finish times are getting slower. Now the 3rd place horse in the first race, is the 1st place horse in the third race but he’s clearly not as fast as the first horse was in the first race—but he still wins—and retires.

You see the home buying and bidding process follows a lot along these lines. The most aggressive bidders typically wins and get their home—now they’re out of the competition. The buyer who came in second now steps to the plate and secures the next home—and he probably bids even more than he bid the last time when he lost. This pushes the prices up and eliminates the aggressive bidders. By summer the remaining bidders are typically far less aggressive and more risk adverse so they bid less and homes close for a smaller amount over the seller’s asking price.

But that begs the question, “Why not just wait until after the bidding wars wane to put in an offer?”

Because prices are going up about $500 q day and the longer one waits the more that same house will cost. Note that as seen in the above graph, the percent a seller receives is greater in the spring while the median home price does not follow any similar plot—except up.

We’ve seen this year in and year out and yet each year we hear people deliberating on the perceived slowdown as a shift in the market, rather than a well-defined pattern repeating itself.

Click here to see our analysis for May of 2014 where we compare it to April’s numbers and every May going back to 2012 when the market took a marked uptick—is the housing market slowing down? See for yourself…

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.