With the Autumnal Equinox just around the corner, we look back a great summer. Now to get caught up on the housing market since we’ve took some much needed time off.

On the national level…we gleam this insight from Standard and Poor’s website…

“Home price gains continue to ease as they have since last fall,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “For the first time since February 2008, all cities showed lower annual rates than the previous month. Other housing indicators – starts, existing home sales and builders’ sentiment – are positive. Taken together, these point to a more normal housing sector.

“The monthly National Index rose 0.9% in June. While all 20 cities saw higher home prices over the last 12 months, all experienced slower gains. In San Francisco, the pace of price increases halved since late last summer. The Sun Belt cities – Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami and Tampa – all remain a third or more below their peak prices set almost a decade ago.

“Bargain basement mortgage rates won’t continue forever; recent improvements in the labor markets and comments from Fed chair Janet Yellen and others hint that interest rates could rise as soon as the first quarter of 2015. Rising mortgage rates won’t send housing into a tailspin, but will further dampen price gains.”

“All 20 cities used for the Case-Shiller report saw their year-over-year rates weaken in June. For the second consecutive month, San Francisco saw its rate decelerate by almost three percentage points – from 18.4% in April to 12.9% in June. Phoenix showed its smallest year-over-year gain of 6.9% since March 2012. Cleveland showed a marginal increase of 0.8% over the last 12 months while Las Vegas led with a gain of 15.2%. All cities reported price increases for the third consecutive month; it would have been a fourth had New York not declined 0.4% in March. San Francisco posted its eighth consecutive price increase but showed its smallest gain of 0.3% since February. Five cities – Detroit, Las Vegas, New York, Phoenix and San Diego – posted larger gains in June than in May. Dallas and Denver continue to set new peaks while Detroit remains the only city below its January 2000 value.”

Everybody wants to know when this crazy market will end.  People just can’t imagine that it will continue at this pace—and of course it won’t, and it didn’t and we’ve been predicating this all along; that the rate of appreciation would wane once home prices rebounded to levels which are sustainable.

The housing market dropped too far and filling that void happened very fast—essentially 2012 until now. We are now reaching new high home values and people are just plain being priced out—with fewer and fewer people who can afford the median price home.  But while the rate of appreciation is slowing, home values are continuing to rise, just at a much more sustainable and slower pace.

The San Francisco MSA (which consists of the counties of San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Contra Costa and Alameda), while experiencing a slowdown in the rate of appreciation (by almost half), nevertheless still enjoyed a 12.9% increase year-over-year.  You can see a graph we’ve put together of the SF MSA data points illustrating the trend over the past 27 years.

*Note—the Standard & Poor’s Index lags the market by three months.

The good news is a home won’t cost you 25% more next year, probably just around 10%. But who wants to pay a 10% penalty for waiting?



Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

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