Belmont Home Sales–September 2009

Belmont closed out the month of September with less than a stellar performance. There were 18 sales which is respectable–a couple more than last month–but still shy of even a normal market.

Bel-September 2009

Is this still a Buyer’s market? We think so.

 

 

 

 

(Click on thechart to see an enlarged version).

 

Look at the percent a seller receives of their asking price. Few homes are selling over the asking price and if they are it's usually because the home is deeply discounted in the first place.

Another sign is the time a home languishes on the market, as expressed in Realtor speak as D.O.M. or Days on Market. Currently it stands at 45 days with six of the sales being listed for 3/4 of a year or more. One sale had to of broken the all time record when it finally closed after being on the market 700 days!

The median price took another beating in Belmont as the raw numbers show another 5% decrease over July values. Adjusted for smaller or larger homes selling, that percent is halved, but still, a 2.5% decrease is a downward trend that we hope will soon slow.

Belmont Home Sales — August 2009

August turned out to be a respectable month for Belmont sales with at 16 it was just one sale shy of last year.

Bel Aug Stats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DOM

You might notice a few oddities in the Days on Market stat. First, our MLS did away with Original Days on market vs. Days on Market as they felt it was simply too confusing. Original Days on market counted from when the home was first listed for sale and the old DOM stat simply kept tract of the most recent listing. Now, the DOM stat is for as long as the home was listed for sale—even with various brokers—with the caveat that if a home was de-listed for more than 30 days it resets to zero.

Percent of Asking

True to form homes that languish on the market received less than their faster selling counterparts. Note that of the ten homes that sold in their first 25 days of being listed did not have to lower their price with six selling on average for $23,000 over their asking and the remaining four for $22,000 under.

Of the six homes that were listed for more than 25 days ALL sold for under their ORIGINAL asking price—on average the seller received $86,000 less or 97% of asking as compared to well priced homes which received 104% of asking (Read was originally listed at $1,125,000 and Arroyo at $769,000 before being re-listed at a lower number that skews the results).

Median Price

The median price of homes selling in August was $837,500 and the median size home sold was 1655 square feet. Last month the median price was $917,000 but the home sold were larger at a median point of 1,860 square feet.

Last year in August the Median price was $947,000 but the size home was also much larger at 2,030.

If you work out the numbers the values really haven't changed much at all over last August, though for the entire year they are down closer to 12%.

The fall selling season is just getting started with another full quarter soon to review. If you are thinking of selling this year now’s the time to take action—the best time is between now and Thanksgiving.

Belmont – June 2009 stats

Belmont June 2009

It’s easy to see the numbers for June are much better for sellers than they were in May. Almost all indicators are up signaling a stronger market for sellers in June as compared to last month (click on the chart to see a full size version).

Looking at the same period over last year a similar pattern arises. Almost every indictor is in the seller’s favor.

More homes sold this June and at a faster rate. The percentage the seller received was a healthy 98% of their asking price. The month’s inventory—the time it would take to sell all of the homes currently listed at the current pace of sales—has dropped to a healthy 3.1 months—far below the national average of over 10 months.

Of course there’s one nagging indicator which isn’t easily seen, and certainly not reported by real estate groups or even the media. Although the median price is up in June 4.5% over May, the size home sold in June was a whopping 17% larger. Over the same period last year, the difference is even more staggering. So even though the median price is essentially the same as it was in June of 2008, the size home you get for you money has increased 25%.

What this all means is buyers are getting better deal this year than last.

Why then is the percent the seller received of their asking price higher than it was last year? Probably because sellers are pricing their homes more realistically; and although they are getting closer to their asking price as a percent, in real dollars they are receiving far less.

Looking at San Mateo County as a whole we see the same positive statistics. More sales, higher median price, fewer days on the market and less inventory. What is not available for the entire county is the median size home sold so we really have no idea if the median values are rising, or simply larger homes are selling. We tend to believe it’s the latter.

May-09 Jun-09 Δ from May Jun-08 Δ from '08
Median $840,000 $878,000 $38,000 $877,000 $1,000
DOM 46 25 21 43 18
Month's Inventory 4 3 1 3 0
Sales 14 21 7 20 1
Inventory 62 62 0 61 1
% Received 98% 98% 0.0% 91% 7.00%
Median Size Home 1,710 2000 290 1600 400
Price per Sq. Ft.  $502.00 $493.00 $9.00 $548.00 $55.00

Belmont Homes Sales – May 2009

What’s happening in our local market is the number one question we receive so here’s the good the bad and the ugly for May 2009 in Belmont.

Bel May 2009

The Good

The number of homes sold in creased in May to 15 from April’s paltry 12. Still, compared to 2004 when 32 homes sold there’s not a lot of activity.

The number of days it took to sell a home in Belmont went from 48 in April down to only 37 in May.

Of the 15 sales in May, 5 sold over the asking price, none sold at asking, and 10 sold under the seller’s asking price.

The Bad

Homes which were originally overpriced took a beating.

Overprice Homes

10

Homes Priced Well

5

DOM

 

76.8

DOM

 

18.8

Percent Received of Original List Price

89%

Percent Received of Original List Price

101.4%

Real Dollar change

$67,000 less

Real Dollar Change

$5,000 more

 

The number of overpriced homes reaching a factor of 2-1 over well priced homes is indicative of the disconnect between what sellers feel their home is worth as compared to what a buyer will actually pay. It’s clear by looking at the numbers though that the number one mistake a seller can make continues to be overpricing their home.

The Ugly.

The median price in Belmont continued its correction in May.

 

May 2009

April 2009

May 2008

May 2007

Median Price

$820000

$775,000

$1,098,750

$1,036,733

* Corrected for size of home

$820,000

$855,000

$952,300

$1,106,533

May Δ in percent

 

-4.09%

-13.94%

– 25.89%

 

*We endeavor to report the true median price as accurately as possible. In doing so, we must take into consideration if larger or smaller homes are selling in a given period.

 

*Date retrieved form the Multiple Listing Service of San Mateo County.

Market Report–Belmont Home Sales April 2009

The homes sale report for April shows a continuing slide in both sales and median price for the Peninsula cities, though we appear to have a lull in the action.

Take the median price of single family homes in San Mateo County for example. In April of 2008 it stood at $925,000. This April that number came in at $610,000–a whopping 34% decrease. Sales have dropped 15% over last year at the same time and 40% off the peak of the market in 2005. Yet every month so far this year the median price has been creeping back up, ever so slightly. Exciting news? Not really. The median price almost without fail creeps up this time of year.

Belmont Apr 2009

(Click on the image to see a full sized graphic)

For Belmont, April home sales came in at a disappointing 13 for the entire month, a 38% decrease over last year’s more typical 21 sales for the month.

The median price came in at $775,000, considerably off of the $930,000 reported just last April. The size homes which sold last April were only slightly larger–3.7%. Which means that the calculated median home price loss of 16.6% might be closer to only 13%, if that makes anyone feel any better.

And don’t expect to get close to what you are asking. On average in Belmont sellers are receiving only 94.84% of their asking price and it is taking about 33% longer for them to get less for their home.  Don’t think that isn’t hurting agents too. Agents who are listing homes for sale are finding it takes longer to sell a home. Longer listing periods can mean thousands more in advertising costs and with values dropping, thousands less in commissions.

Click here to see April sales report for surrounding cities.

Belmont Housing Report–March 2009

The home sales are in for Belmont for the month of March 2009 and they exhibit all the indications of a continuing declining market. We wrote a short post on what the numbers mean when compared to the same period just a few years back.

Belmont-March 2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is the same period just twoyears ago…

Macrh 2007

Belmont and the Bay Area Peninsula Housing Downturn

If you’re wondering where the housing downturn is headed in Belmont you can get a good indication by these two snap shots taken for the month of March 2007 and 2009.

We use 2007 as a benchmark since it was the last year where the impact of the housing crises had not yet been realized in our market.

Here are some startling yet revealing statistics:

The far right column of this chart says it all. Every indicator in red illustrates a deterioration of the seller’s market which has prevailed for so long.

You may notice that even though larger homes sold in 2009 the median price still dropped $161,500 in 2009. Adjusting for this, the real median price drop is actually $252,850 or 26%.

Today, on average it will take almost three times as long to sell a home in Belmont; when you do sell you are likely to receive under you asking price. In fact statistically you no longer have any chance of getting over your asking price and the odds of getting less than your asking price has increased by 50%. Sellers now receive on average only 96% of what they ask for their home compared to over 103% in 2007. In real dollars that translates into a swing of $52,000.

In the end, this much anticipated market correction will produce a more stable real estate market. Affordability is increasing and eventually sales will increase as buyers feel more optimistic about the future, including job security and housing stability.

Considering the drop in value we are experiencing, for sellers who are debating a moving out of the area, sooner rather than later will probably produce a better result. In all likelihood it will be many years before inflation drives price points back to levels seen in 2007.

A down market is typically an attractive time for sellers who are thinking of a move up. The logic behind this is a more expensive home is less in real dollars–and also saves you thousands of dollars in property taxes over the life of your ownership. Our current market also includes attractive Interest rates that are at historic lows, though Jumbo loans are not enjoying the full benefit of the government’s intervention.

Buyers who have stable jobs and are planning to live in their first home for five years or more are benefitting the most from the current conditions. Prices are at a low not seen in years, interest rates are at historic lows, the government is paying them $8,000 to buy a home this year, multiple offers are for the most part non-existent and the high inventory levels means there are a lot of homes to choose from.

In every market, there are opportunities. If you would like advice on how to make the most of our current economic climate give us a call at (650) 508-1441.

*Data retreived from the MLS

The information contained in this post is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal or tax advice, nor does it substitute for legal or tax advice.

Belmont–A Month in Review January 2009

The first month of the year is in the books as we close out the sales for January 2009 in Belmont.

Belmont Jan 2009

With 40 homes on the market, inventory is showing signs of creeping up. Looking at past January inventory levels, they typically hover in the low 20 range. Higher inventory levels usually means sellers will get less than their asking price as the supply and demand is in imbalance.

It’s always interesting for us to see why inventory levels are up. There can be several factors but they almost all have a common thread and that’s the market is slowing down.

Most buyers can easily get a loan, despite whatever impression from the media one might have. Sure you need to have a better credit score than last year, and you actually must have a downpayment now, but lenders are happy to make good loans and they’re doing so at a frenetic pace.

But if buyers are afraid that the market is tanking, or that they may be about of a job soon, they’ll sit on the sidelines and the inventory will grow.

Seller’s who think they had better get out now, or sadly ones who have perhaps already lost their job, need an exit strategy now—they can’t wait for the market values to return.

Together these factors cause inventory levels to grow and that has an inverse relationship on values.

In Belmont the median price has dropped below $900,000 for the last two months in a row; and though we occasionally dip down under $ 900K (due to a shift in the size of homes selling), one has to go back to 2004 to see the median price stay this low.

Belmont-Month in Review December 2008

We’ve got a lot to cover at the beginning of a new year as we go back and examine all of 2008 as well as the month of December.

This is our month-end report of home sales in Belmont for the month of December 2008. Note that while the median price dropped significantly from November, so did the size home which sold in December. The difference in size of homes in the two months was 190 square feet. At the price per square foot of $514 that could account for $97,660 of the difference in the median home price—meaning that home prices were actually higher in December if you factor in for the size of home which sold.

Sales were up too. There were eight sales in November and eleven in December. That’s an anomaly as typically sales in November are greater than December. We’ll chalk that one up to the dire economic news in October (October sales are November’s closings).

Click on the chart for a readable picture.

December 2008 Belmont Sales

Belmont – November 2008 Housing Report

We anticipated Belmont home sales closing at eight for the month of November in a previous post where we did an extensive review of the local market.


Click on the play tab to hear an overview



These first two graphs will be explained more in detail further in our post but as you can see the percentage of homes selling over the seller’s asking price has increased.




(Click on the chart below for a full size image).



November Belmont Sales 2008 As you can see from the sales report, sales are down considerably from the previous month and down from than that of a year ago as well. We’ve added a chart showing the differences (below) that will help put November’s numbers in perspective.


(Click on the chart below for a full size image).


November Belmont Sales 2008 comparison



 


To sum up the data we’ve also added arrows depicting whether each indicator (or data point) is an improvement this November over the two previous periods reviewed. An up arrow ↑indicates that this November’s data is an improvement over the previous periods while a down arrow↓ indicates the opposite is true.


MEDIAN PRICE


The Median price, the point at which half of the homes have sold more or less, remains virtually unchanged from October 2008. Counter intuitively November’s median at $912,000 is higher than in 2007 when it stood at $894,000. The size of homes selling greatly impacts the price per square foot as smaller homes sell for more per square foot and larger homes tend to sell for more period. Accounting for the difference where in 2007 the median home size was 1645 square feet and this year where the median home sold was 1,910 sq. ft., at $514 per square foot that would make the 265 sq. ft. difference in size worth around $136,210 meaning that home values actually dropped 7% over last year’s November, not up 2% as the raw data suggests.


SALES


At only eight sales as compared to last November’s 20, it’s amazing that inventory is not higher. At the time we wrote this the inventory of active homes for sale in Belmont stood at only 50. To some degree that helps balance the supply and demand and keep prices in relatively check.


This November three homes sold over their asking price—the same number as last year. The difference is this year homes that sold over their asking price represented 43% of all the November sales while last year it represented only 15%.


PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT:


Be careful not to read too much into this. Last year homes sold in November sold for $70.00 more per square foot than this November—but the homes that sold last year were much smaller; and  as was discussed above, smaller homes tend to sell for more per square foot because land is a constant in the calculation and can account for half of a home’s value.


PERCENT RECEIVED:


This November sellers received on average 99.38% of their asking price—virtually unchanged over October’s performance and better than last November’s 97.9%. This needs to be weighed against the CDOM (Continuous Days on Market) and the number of price reductions statistics to be meaningful at all. Sure homes sold this November closer to their asking price, but did the seller receive more in real dollars? How many price reductions and how many days a typical home is on the market help put this number in perspective. Notice that homes which needed a price reduction in order to sell accounted for nearly 63% of all sales this November while last year they accounted for only 25%. But the time it took to sell a home, though higher than in October, dropped from 46 to only 29 days this November. What does this suggest? That more sellers are forced to lower their expectations and lower their asking prices sooner rather than later.


This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this intended to be specific to your situation-always consult a specialist who is familiar with the details of your situation.


Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended to be a representation of homes listed or sold exclusively by Drew or Christine Morgan or Carlmont Associates.


Download Nov.2008