Many of the real estate stories you may be hearing are dealing with national or statewide issues and do not reflect our local market. That doesn’t mean that the overall housing picture doesn’t affect our market-it does. The perception of a declining market is all it takes to create one. As optimistic as homeowners are about the value of their homes, we believe that somewhere in the back of their minds there’s a nagging uncertainty of future valuation and a realization that at some point the run up in real estate values will come to an end. And of course it will. The question remains is this it? Are we there now?

In the Bay Area, conditions are not the same as many parts of the country where cities are reporting a rapid decline in home values. These are some of the factors which may enable the Bay Area to weather the current real estate storm better than other parts of the county:

• The Bay Area is currently adding high paying jobs to the workforce,"… Jobs in the San Jose area increased 1.6 percent during the year."-increasing the demand for housing with high paying jobs that can support the Bay Area home prices. Though the overall employment picture is not as rosy as construction and other jobs related to the housing industry are waning.
• The Bay Area rental market is tapped out at near 100% occupancy rates adding to the pressure to buy a home.
• New construction is limited due to land constraints and fewer new homes starts as developer try and keep inventories low to buoy prices. This is keeping the supply of homes (inventory) at reasonable levels.
• The last major downturn in real estate for the Bay Area was in 1990-1994 "…The country’s last recession begin in July 1990 and lasted until March 1991. But NBER did not officially declare the downturn over until December 1992." The actual decline in real estate values lasted about three years and then remained flat for another several years depending on what city you lived in). The difference between the last major decline in home values and the precipice we are on now is that we are not in a recession as we were in 1990.  Absent the need for homeowners to sell due to a job loss or relocation, sellers may choose to wait out the market. This would continue to keep inventory levels from skyrocketing as they did in 1990. Less motivated sellers equates to fewer "fire sales", helping keep values from plummeting.

This isn’t to say we aren’t in for a bumpy ride. The issues facing the sub-prime lending have led to increasing mortgage defaults around the country and have even the most enthusiastic real estate investors on edge. The Bay Area real estate market weathered the recession of 2001 fairly well and may do so again but any protracted or significant recession will have a huge impact on the Bay Area housing market due to the current low affordability index.

The optimism and expectations for Bay Area real estate are very high–too high to be sustainable. A pull-back will happen. When it will happen and how deep it will go is yet to be seen.

What should you do?

First time buyers who can afford a home, feel their jobs are secure and are not planning a move in the next several years should seriously consider buying a home while there’s more to choose from and less competiton. Chances are you’ll get a better deal than what the median prices reflect. In the early 1990’s the buyers who purchased a home despite flat (or declining) appreciation levels were in the best position when the market rebounded as pent-up demand for housing meant multiple offers and a rapid increase in home values (*the recession had been over for nearly two years before the Bay Area housing market had a significant rebound).

Trade-up sellers: This group really has nothing to lose by trading up in this market. Falling values means a more expensive trade-up home is less in real dollars. More inventory means more to choose from and seller’s are even considering a contingency on the sale of your residence-something we have not seen in years.

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.

Drew & Christine Morgan Morganhomes.com

Visit our Blog at BeautifulMountainBlog.org

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.

This graph shows sales for the last the last four years for Belmont, California. It’s interesting to note that even with higher inventory levels, the median price is till holding along the trend-line where it would be calculated to be based upon past trends, The third quarter ending period in September should add more valuable data to help understand if in deed the market forces are beginning to impact not just sales and inventory, put selling priced as well.

You can read more abou these grahs for Belnt and other openineuals cities on our web page at morganhomes.com

Also, visit our Belmont Blog at BeautifulMountainBlog.org

Drew & Christine Morgan Morganhomes.com

Visit our Real Estate Blog on Active Rain real estate network.

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.

Many of the real estate stories you may be hearing are dealing with national or statewide issues and do not reflect our local market. That doesn’t mean that the overall housing picture doesn’t affect our market—it does. The perception of a declining market is all it takes to create one. As optimistic as homeowners are about the value of their homes, we believe that somewhere in the back of their minds there’s a nagging uncertainty of future valuation and a realization that at some point the run up in real estate values will come to an end. And of course it will. The question remains is this it? Are we there now?

In the Bay Area, conditions are not the same as many parts of the country where cities are reporting a rapid decline in home values. These are some of the factors which may enable the Bay Area to weather the current real estate storm better than other parts of the county:

• The Bay Area is currently adding high paying jobs to the workforce,”… Jobs in the San Jose area increased 1.6 percent during the year.”—increasing the demand for housing with high paying jobs that can support the Bay Area home prices. Though the overall employment picture is not as rosy as construction and other jobs related to the housing industry are waning.
• The Bay Area rental market is tapped out at near 100% occupancy rates adding to the pressure to buy a home.
• New construction is limited due to land constraints and fewer new homes starts as developer try and keep inventories low to buoy prices. This is keeping the supply of homes (inventory) at reasonable levels.
• The last major downturn in real estate for the Bay Area was in 1990-1994 “…The country’s last recession begin in July 1990 and lasted until March 1991. But NBER did not officially declare the downturn over until December 1992.” The actual decline in real estate values lasted about three years and then remained flat for another several years depending on what city you lived in). The difference between the last major decline in home values and the precipice we are on now is that we are not in a recession as we were in 1990.  Absent the need for homeowners to sell due to a job loss or relocation, sellers may choose to wait out the market. This would continue to keep inventory levels from skyrocketing as they did in 1990. Less motivated sellers equates to fewer “fire sales”, helping keep values from plummeting.

This isn’t to say we aren’t in for a bumpy ride. The issues facing the sub-prime lending have led to increasing mortgage defaults around the country and have even the most enthusiastic real estate investors on edge. The Bay Area real estate market weathered the recession of 2001 fairly well and may do so again but any protracted or significant recession will have a huge impact on the Bay Area housing market due to the current low affordability index.

The optimism and expectations for Bay Area real estate are very high—too high to be sustainable. A pull-back will happen. When it will happen and how deep it will go is yet to be seen.

What should you do?

First time buyers who can afford a home, feel their jobs are secure and are not planning a move in the next several years should seriously consider buying a home while there’s more to choose from and less completion. Chances are you’ll get a better deal than what the median prices reflect. In the early 1990’s the buyers who purchased a home despite flat (or declining) appreciation levels were in the best position when the market rebounded as pent-up demand for housing meant multiple offers and a rapid increase in home values (*the recession had been over for nearly two years before the Bay Area housing market had a significant rebound).

Trade-up sellers: This group really has nothing to lose by trading up in this market. Falling values means a more expensive trade-up home is less in real dollars. More inventory means more to choose from and seller’s are even considering a contingency on the sale of your residence—something we have not seen in years.

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.

The graph below is for San Mateo County, California. Notice how steep the trend-line is for this year as compared to 2004. The trend line used is a straight line computation in which the trend illustrated is based upon the previous data points. Of course this predicted outcome can change radically as market conditions change and in fact we would expect that this level of appreciation (given the current issues in the mortgage industry) is not sustainable and in fact it may be the result of more expensive homes selling in the two previous months–September data points should help level off this trend.