Drew & Christine Morgan
Housing Update–November 2008 | (650) 508-1441 | |||||||
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Belmont–September Housing Statistics
Belmont’s housing sales for the month of September are in the books and the less than stellar report is probably not surprising given what you instinctively know.
Consumer confidence numbers are indicative of consumer sentiment and consumer confidence, although slightly higher than in August, is at only 59.8—indexed to 1985 when it was at 100. That’s not the whole story though as we predict it will drop once the consumer uncertainty over the seven billion dollar bailout are reflected in October’s numbers.
This graph illustrates the correlation between the number of available homes for sale and the number of sales.
Although inventory levels remain in check, the number of sales is disturbingly low for the month of September. As you can see by the interactive graph, September sales weren’t even this low in the month following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. The difference of course is that inventory levels are much lower than in 2001 and that alone should help keep values from deteriorating at an unhealthy pace.
The median price has held its’ own but one must remember that the median price statistic is the median price of homes which sold, not necessarily what the median price is for Belmont homes. That said the median price rose by $3,000 over the month of August while the median size home sold was considerably smaller—210 feet to be exact. At $527 per square foot that is a significant sign that values are holding relatively firm considering the tumultuous environment and we give this market indicator a positive denotation on that very note.
Here’s how the numbers stack up as compared to Augus
t:
(click for a larger view)
This is Belmont’s Full report for September 2008:
(click for a larger view)
August 2008 Housing in Review–San Mateo County
The big news in August was the Government take-over of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae which has had the desired effect of bolstering mortgage backed securities and lowering interest rates. What it ends up costing us all is yet to be determined but suffice to say it’ll probably be worse than if we suffered through a protracted catastrophic collapse of the United States’ financial markets.
Listen here to the audio version.
Looking at San Mateo County’s housing activity for August you get a glimpse at the impact the housing downturn has had and where it may be headed.
This graph shows the correlation between the number of homes for sale and the median price:
- Median Price is down a statistically insignificant amount–$5K from July to $795,000. Down 16.3% from August 2007
- Belmont and San Carlos down around 4% year over year
- Menlo Park posts a ½ percent increase in the median price.
- Closed sales down from July’s 428 to 376 in August–last August there were 366 sales
- Inventory declines again–third month in a row from 1886 in July to 1773 in August. Up 14% over August 2007 at 15544
- Month’s supply of home rises only slightly to 4.7 from 4.4
Belmont Housing Review–August 2008
August, 2008
The data for the summer months suggests Belmont’s housing sector may be near or at the bottom for any market corrections though the picture outside the mid-peninsula remains uncertain. Belmont is a micro-market and we take this position not because all of the data points to positive market indicators, but rather the data points are all in flux. 
Taken as a whole, the sumer wasn’t bad to Belmont sellers at all. But like we’ve said before, it’s extremely hard to telll how bad a storm will be when you are in the middle of one; but all storms do pass and we’re getting a glimpse of daylight in our numbers. Whichever is the case– whether we are near the bottom or passed it–we’re all along for the ride, for better or for worse.
Instability in these critical numbers such as the amount a seller receives of their asking price, the median price compared to the size homes actually sold month-over-month is indicative of a market in change. In other words there is no real direction in which all the numbers point—whether it’s a buyer or seller’s market.
â†Click on the spreadsheet for a larger size.
↓The number of sales in August fell to only 17 after posting a year high of 25 in July (there were 22 last year at this time). Though sales were down 32%, there were also 22% fewer homes to sell.
↑The median price however rose to $947,000 from $890,000 in July. In August last year the median price was $988,500. See our post on the median price correlation and the size of homes selling to put these wild fluctuations in perspective.
↓The time it took to sell a home went from 14 days in July to 41 in August. That’s a strong indicator that the slow summer months liquidated some old inventory; remember most of July’s sales were consummated in May and June.
↓The amount the seller received of their asking price dropped a whopping 7% from 98.37% in July to 91% in August and dropped 11% over last year when it stood at 102%. This statistic is understandable when homes are selling in 41 days instead of 14 as they did last month. Homes which are overpriced and languish on the market tend to sell way under what they should, but we’ll save that for our next post. Still, you can’t help but compare this to last year’s performance and give it a big red arrow.
This fall we expect sales will pick up a bit from August but still remain under last year’s numbers. This winter could be relatively quiet but we expect next spring to determine the fate of the local market into 2009.
Data extracted from the Multiple Listing Serice for San Mateo County.
The information contained in this postis educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.
Belmont Housing Activity–Week Ending August 16th 2008
New Listings!
Activity last week was slow in Belmont as the housing market always takes lazy summer pace about this time of year. Once people get back from their last vacations and get the kids ready for school, the market picks up again from just after Labor Day until Thanksgiving.
There were only three new listings last week, three homes that went pending and six that closed escrow lowering Belmont’s total inventory to 44. Of the six that closed escrow only 1 went over asking but it did so the tune of over $100,000! Historically, home sell closer to asking in the summer month’s so there’s no real trend here that’s not expected. It will probably drop once more before climbing again in September. We’d be remise if we didn’t say to Sellers to get their home on the market earlier rather than later after Labor Day.
As for the new listings, none of these homes made it on the market in time for last Tuesday’s tour so we don’t have a lot of feedback as of yet.
ACTIVE
1514 Pine Knoll Dr Belmont 2/1 Pine Knoll is a GREAT street in Belmont. It sits atop one of Belmont earliest bluffs where people built summer vacation cottages back in the 30’s. This one looks really nice at the price looks good too. Definitely one to check out if you can handle only two bedrooms. OPEN SUNDAY 1:30-4:30 8/17
1134 North Ct Belmont 3.2 Another short sale story, this 1,400 sq. ft. home was sold in 2005 for $951,000. Re-listed in 2006 at $968,000, it never sold. Now it’s a lender short sale at $765,000. That’s a good deal to be on the west side. If you’re patient, this one may be worth checking out but remember short sales can be problematic. If you’re unfamiliar with short sales you can check out our blog article on them here. OPEN SUNDAY 1:00-4:00 8/17
320 Treasure Island Dr Belmont 3/2 &1/2 This is a townhome style condominium association in Belmont out near Oracle. At 1,770 square feet it’s a lot of home for the money and if you work at Orcale that’s a nice commute! OPEN SUNDAY 1:00-4:00 8/17
Pending Sale homes.
Three homes went into pending status last week and the one that needs mention is San Ardo. This was our Best Belmont Deal last week and sure enough it sold in four days. Remember, this home was listed for only $725,000 for a 3/2 1420 square foot home in the Belmont Hills! Anyone care to guess what it will close for? Let’s just say it could close for as high as $825,000 and still be a fair price.
SOLD
1400 Arden Lane Belmont 3/2 This home was located near the San Carlos border on the eastern side of the hills. We knew this would go fast and indeed it did. It was only on the market for 10 days when it sold for $1,111,000 a whopping $136,000 over asking! It had a nice floor plan on one level and some usable flat yard area–always a premium in the hills.
2721 Sequoia Way Belmont 4/2& 1/2 This home stuck around awhile on the market. With some of the best views in Belmont–overlooking Sugarloaf Mountain and San Francisco City views, frankly I’m surprised that they couldn’t have got more for this home. There’s a lesson here about how to market a home for sale… It sold under the asking price of $1,010,000 at $950,000.
2627 Barclay Way Belmont 4/4+ We used live across the street from this home before we moved to Hallmark. I love this neighborhood. You feel like you’re in the Tahoe wilderness up there. There’s a sad story that goes along with this home. It sold back in 2005 for $1,129,000 for what we thought at the time as WAY too high of a price. Sure enough when they went to try and sell, the same fervor in the market did not exist and they had a heck of a time selling it once again and ending up selling short of what they owed at $860,000.
1909 Arbor Av Belmont 3/ 2 This home was only 1,100 sq. ft. hence the low sale price for the Belmont Hills. It closed after being on the market for only 13 days at $798,000 some $15,000 under the asking price of $813,888
2022 Monroe Av Belmont 3/2 Another short sale property in the Belmont Hills, this home was on the market for 173 days. Still at only 1,100 square feet it sold for $668.00 per square foot at $735,000, though it was listed higher at $799,000.
1101 Continentals Way, #301. 1 Bed 1 Bath At only 740 square feet the condo is the lowest sale in Belmont but we threw it in so you can tell your friends who are renting to buy a one bedroom like this instead. It sold for only $350,000!
Belmont’s Housing Activity–Week ending 8.08.08
Belmont Housing Activity Δ from prior week
New listings 3 ↓
Homes that went pending 2 ↓
Homes that closed escrow 1 ↓
Total Inventory 45 ↑
Only two homes received an offer last week and went pending, three new listings hit the market, and with only one sale the inventory rose slightly. Most closings are scheduled for the end of the month and there are currently have 15 set to close by then.
NEW LISTINGS
2503 Read Ave., Belmont 2 Bed/ 2 Bath 950 Sq. Ft. for $799,000.
2818 San Ardo Way, Belmont 3 Bed/ 2 Bath 1420 Sq. Ft. home for $725,000 * Our Belmont’s Best Deal pick of the week! OPEN SAT & SUN 8/9th & 10th from 2:00-4:00
807 Ruth Ave., Belmont 2 Beds/ 1 Bath 1,40 Sq. Ft. home for $719,000
SOLD HOMES
3614 Hillcrest 5 beds/3 baths 2840 Sq. Ft. sold for $850,000.
This home was simply entered for a comp. I’m not sure why because it’s a bad one at that. It never hit the market and apparently was a real contractor’s special.
Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
The week ending August 8th of 2008 may have been the luckiest date in this decade but seller’s who wanted to move weren’t quite so fortunate. The Belmont housing activity was rather slow this past week.
Peninsula Home Values in the Bay Area
We’re testing out some fun fusion style charts for our blog page so we thought we’d throw this chart out to show the median price trends in various Peninsula cities as compared to San Mateo county as a whole. When a housing market adjustment happens, the old saying location, location, location (being the three most important things in real estate), takes on a whole new meaning. It’s not just about living in a nice place, it becomes also about living in an area where the prices are more stable.
Belmont Housing Activity-Week ending July 17, 2008
Belmont–New Listings & Sales
With 47 Active listings Belmont’s inventory is holding steady. Last week saw five new listings—five more than last week. Another seven homes went pending and 11 closed escrow. Here’s a quick summary:
Pine Knoll is a secluded street atop a knoll in one of Belmont older neighborhoods. This is a cute home which was originally a small summer cabin. In fact, it still is a small cabin and needs to be totally redone in order to make a real house out of it. One gets a sense of the fun summer vacations which were no doubt had at this location.
This home on East Laurel Creek made our best deal of the week list for price and value. It’s nestled down in the canyon and feels more like a home in Tahoe than the suburbs.
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Bottom of Form
Belmont Sales (Closings)–Week ending July 10, 2008
With 46 homes for sale, Belmont’s inventory is down this week. Twenty six more have a pending sale. Part of the reason the inventory is low this week is the number of new listings was ZERO. That’s very unusual for the summer market.
Seven homes went into a pending sale status last week (all but one was under a million dollars) and another six homes closed escrow–two from our Carlmont Associates Brokerage (see below). One of our picks for the “Best Deal of the Week†on Carmelita closed escrow for $710,000–$11,000 over asking.
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Belmont Closings–Week ending July 10, 2008
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Redwood City Homes–A sign of market stabilization?
↑Redwood City’s housing market looked slightly more stable in June than in recent months. The median price rose to $862,944, a 5.3% increase over May. That’s still down from just a year ago when the median home price stood at $945,000.
↑The month’s supply of homes—the number of months it would take to liquidate all existing inventory at the current rate of sales—dropped to only 4.3 months from 5.3 in May. A year ago the supply was a paltry 2.3 months indicating a strong seller’s market last year.
↑The month’s supply of homes dropped because sales picked up. June is typically the biggest month for closings—generally from sales generated in May. June saw 52 homes closing escrow while in May there were only 42, and 68 for this time a year ago.
↑The percent a seller can expect to receive of their asking price was up slightly to 98.6%, still under last year’s 101.2% and it continues to take twice as long to sell a home. Homes stayed on the market on average for 52 days in June of this year as compared to only 24 days last year.
↓Inventory, or the number of available homes for sale, continues to be a driving factor in impacting how long a home takes to sell and what the seller receives. Inventory levels in June of 2008 are nearly 40% higher than a year ago. Large inventories are an indication that home values will remain soft.
(Click on the picture for a full size view)
↑= a growth indicator
↓= a retraction in housing
↔= virtually no change
↗= possible housing growth indicator
↘=minor housing retraction indicator
*source San Mateo County Multiple Listing Service. © MorganHomes.com 2008—all rights reserved.