Belmont–A Month in Review January 2009

The first month of the year is in the books as we close out the sales for January 2009 in Belmont.

Belmont Jan 2009

With 40 homes on the market, inventory is showing signs of creeping up. Looking at past January inventory levels, they typically hover in the low 20 range. Higher inventory levels usually means sellers will get less than their asking price as the supply and demand is in imbalance.

It’s always interesting for us to see why inventory levels are up. There can be several factors but they almost all have a common thread and that’s the market is slowing down.

Most buyers can easily get a loan, despite whatever impression from the media one might have. Sure you need to have a better credit score than last year, and you actually must have a downpayment now, but lenders are happy to make good loans and they’re doing so at a frenetic pace.

But if buyers are afraid that the market is tanking, or that they may be about of a job soon, they’ll sit on the sidelines and the inventory will grow.

Seller’s who think they had better get out now, or sadly ones who have perhaps already lost their job, need an exit strategy now—they can’t wait for the market values to return.

Together these factors cause inventory levels to grow and that has an inverse relationship on values.

In Belmont the median price has dropped below $900,000 for the last two months in a row; and though we occasionally dip down under $ 900K (due to a shift in the size of homes selling), one has to go back to 2004 to see the median price stay this low.

Belmont’s Beautiful Mountain Blog Revisited

 

In 2008 we began several new series on our blog site. Most of our content centered around the turbulent real estate market on the Peninsula, but we also endeavored to comment about the market in general and small town happenings in Belmont.

Some of our posts simply required too much time away from the business of selling homes, and we’ve decided to eliminate a few of those.

What we will be discontinuing is the weekly update of new listings and sales. Rather, we encourage you now to subscribe to our automated system for getting listing alerts in real time—including new listings and recent sales; we just felt that we were being a little redundant and this trade-off will allow us more time to concentrate on our business.

You can still count on getting a monthly wrap-up of homes that have sold. We feature Belmont home sales in detail on this blog site and you can always get surrounding cities and the entire San Mateo county stats at our MorganHomes.com web site under “How’s the Market”; we also implemented the Fusion style graphs that are more interactive and interesting.

We’ll continue to add occasional posts in our series “Frequently Unasked Questions” Unasked3 whenever we stumble across an issue we think you should know about, and probably don’t.

 

The Podcasts we began in 2008 will still be around when we want to discuss the market in general and we hope that you continue to stay tuned to those.Podcast

We think this more focused and succinct blog format will help our readers get the real estate information they want, and know that they can rely on our regular posts whicht have attracted the most readership.

Thanks for being patient as we enjoy an exciting 2009.

Best Dressed homes in 2008

IStock_000006475100XSmall With a nod to Carlmont High’s class of 2009 starting their first full week after winter break , and real estate just coming out of winter hibernation, we thought we’d take some of our downtime to summarize a few of our sales in 2008 and offer a big thanks to the many clients who hired us to help them get their perfect home this year.

 

Most Likely to Succeed

Hillsborough I guess you could say this Hillsborough home has already succeeded in many ways. At 10,000+ square feet it’s the largest home we’ve ever sold and at $10,990,000 it’s also the most expensive.  

 

 

 

 

What a deal though, Hillsborough3our buyer received an offer for over a million dollars more than what they paid for it a month later (they turned it down). LISTED for $10,990,000 SOLD for $10,900,000.

Hillsborough2

 

Check out the cool backyard with pool, tennis court and guest house!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most Creative

Teredo Terrance and Patricia have grand plans for this modest home in Redwood Shores. We won this home for them in multiple offers. Plans include a two story addition which will give them views of the San Francisco bay! LISTED for $859,000 SOLD for $ 889,000 in four days. Good luck with your remodel!

 

 

 

 

Class Favorite

Laurel Everyone who has seen this home falls in love with it just like Chris and Tracey did when Chris found it online. We’d been looking for the perfect home for several years when lo and behold this estate came up in Los Gatos. Laurel2 

This has to be one of the neatest homes we’ve ever sold. Check out the outdoor entrainment possibilities with the coolest veranda we’ve seen. Laurel3 

Oh yeah, did we mention the weather down there makes outdoor dining a summer standard. Great housewarming party BTW. LISTED for $4,500,000 SOLD for $4,250,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best Dressed

Cape2 Hands down for Best Dressed was this home in Redwood Shores. Chris and Tracey had an amazing home which we were happy to sell. Even our stager said she wouldn’t change a thing! Cape 

Check out the rear BBQ area that's the envy of the neighborhood. And thanks to Tracy’s interior design skills, she made this an easy sell and was rewarded with the highest sale ever in their neighborhood. LISTED for $1,428,898 SOLD for $1,400,000.

 

 

 

Most Talkative

Hallamark1 Our listing in Hallmark gets the nod for most talkative since the neighborhood was abuzz when we listed it. We’d been prepping it for a month and being that it was on Hallmark Drive, it got quite the visibility. We were absolutely deluged at our open house and when we sold it in one week (in the midst of the financial melt-down) the calls were rolling in asking how we sold it so fast. Hallmark 

The answer is the seller did everything we asked of him and readied is home with professional staging and enhancements. There’s a neat video if you want to see the before and after pictures. Thanks Eiji—you were a pleasure to work  with and we are still saddened that you lost your cat one day before you moved—we’re always on the lookout for him. LISTED for $1,298,890, SOLD for $1,285,000 in about a week.

 

Thanks again for making 2008 another great year!

Real Estate re-cap–2008

Before we wrote this year’s forecast, we went back and re-read our assessment of where the market might be headed in 2008. Graphs

 

Of course very few people could have predicted that the dire real estate woes would drag the entire economy to the brink of collapse and we were no better than most.

 

However, for your enjoyment we’ve clipped a segment out of our 2008 market forecast made on January 4th 2008—and highlighted some of our more interesting comments:

 

“This is precisely why the Peninsula should fare better than other areas [in 2008]”.

 â€œHowever, it’s entirely possible we are on a precipice which could collapse at any time. What is [currently] impacting the Peninsula is the rising cost of energy—especially gasoline.”

“What could have an incalculable impact would be a prolonged recession and loss of local jobs; either of these would undoubtedly bring a decrease in home values to the Peninsula”.

In 2008, Investors eventually began to snap up undervalued properties in the central valley and a few of the nine bay area counties which were hard hit by foreclosures. This had the desired effect of liquidating the tidal wave of inventory but the undesirable effect of sinking the reported median price by skewing the sales mix to smaller homes (since smaller homes and distressed properties sell for less). The media meanwhile continued its relentless reporting of the falling median home price without appreciable application of responsible journalism. Bombarded by the media’s lack of analysis, invariably many buyers were frightened by the reports of falling home values and quite reasonably and expectedly took a “wait and see” attitude. That’s not to say the media’s information was wrong, but they do choose what to report and what to leave out and in many cases they reported numbers without the necessary perspective leading many to believe the housing situation to be far worse than it was in some areas, and far better than it was in others.

Although clearly there were several other factors which inhibited the ability of people to purchase homes—not the least of which was tighter lending standards and higher interest rates—our intrinsic evidence suggests that most credit worthy buyers on the Peninsula withheld from purchasing a home based on the fear of values spiraling down, not because they wanted to wait and “time the absolute market bottom” or couldn't get a loan.

 

Belmont–Housing Week in Review January 10, 2009

Welcome to 2009 and our weekly review of homes for sale in Belmont. This year we’ve been slow to get out of the gate with new listings. The inventory of homes for sale in Belmont is currently at 31 but that includes 29 carried over from December which didn’t sell. To give an idea how out of whack that is the average days on market (including the two new listings in January) is at 125! With the average home selling in Belmont in 2008 in 44 days these stale listings are going to need some serious price reductions in order to sell in 2009.

So we begin the year with over three months of inventory which is the same as last year but double what it has been averaging during an active market year.

Here are the only two new listings so far in 2008:

NEW LISTINGS

Palmer2 2408 Palmer Ave. 3 Bed 1 Bath 1200 Sq. Ft. home on a 5,200 Sq. Ft. lot LISTED for $749,950. This home is a little tired but with a little fresh paint and some cosmetic work it could be a fine home in a great neighborhood—just around the corner form Cipriani Elementary school and the dog park. The downside is the one car garage buy at this price it rivals homes listed on the east side near 101. We give this a BEST DEAL of the week and not just because we don't have much to choose from. Listed By Sandy Paoli, RE/MAX Today. OPEN SUNDAY 1/11 1:30-4:00

Bcr 2662 Belmont Canyon Road– 4 Beds 3 bath 2205 Sq. Ft. home on a 14,375 Sq. Ft. lot LISTED for $ 1,013,000. If this address sounds vaguely familiar it should. It was listed last year in April for $1,188,888. It received an offer when listed at that price in July but soon fell out of escrow (no we do not know why). It was lowered to $1,035,000 but never sold. It’s a nice home, though it resides on a rather steep hillside which could turn off people with small children. Listed By Christina J. Galletti, Alain Pinel Realtors. NO OPEN HOUSE INFORMATION AVAILABLE.

 

SOLD HOMES

 

As you might expect it’s too early in the new year to have many homes close escrow, and most buyers like to close at the end of the year for tax purposes, but this home slipped into 2009.

 

Lower lock2 ↑3407 Lower Lock—3 bed 2 bath 1,550 Sq. Ft. home on a 5,500 Sq. Ft. lot LISTED for $ 899,888 SOLD for $905,000. So the first sale of the new year went over asking. Nice.

Belmont-Month in Review December 2008

We’ve got a lot to cover at the beginning of a new year as we go back and examine all of 2008 as well as the month of December.

This is our month-end report of home sales in Belmont for the month of December 2008. Note that while the median price dropped significantly from November, so did the size home which sold in December. The difference in size of homes in the two months was 190 square feet. At the price per square foot of $514 that could account for $97,660 of the difference in the median home price—meaning that home prices were actually higher in December if you factor in for the size of home which sold.

Sales were up too. There were eight sales in November and eleven in December. That’s an anomaly as typically sales in November are greater than December. We’ll chalk that one up to the dire economic news in October (October sales are November’s closings).

Click on the chart for a readable picture.

December 2008 Belmont Sales

Welcome to our 2009 Market Conjecture

Those of you who have been following us for some time know that at the beginning of each year we re-cap the previous year and take a stab at where the market might be headed in the upcoming year.2008-2009

Of course you expect to read the median price has dropped and in fact it has, just not as much as you may have been anticipating. While the Bay Area nine counties reported a median price drop of over 40%* from 2007, Belmont had only a 5.4% decline and that’s after we factored into our calculations slightly larger homes sold in 2008. The raw numbers, which tend to be the only ones reported, suggest a decline in median price of only 2.6% for the year.

SALES ARE KEY

Sales are key to the survival of Realtors®, but unless you are selling your home you could probably care less how many homes sell in a given year. However, it gives us a good indication of overall market activity—with the caveat that sometimes sales are down simply because there are fewer homes to sell.

Sales of single family homes (our benchmark for all comparisons) were down from last years’ 219 to a paltry 170 for the entire year in 2008—a decrease of over 22%! Contrasted to a year of more normal market activity, (as recent as 2003 when 343 homes sold), sales are down up to 50%. Clearly we are in a period of slower than normal home sales.

 

HOMES LISTED FOR SALE

But were there fewer homes to sell in 2008? It’s hard to believe but for the entire year, at 309, there were only two fewer listings than in 2007.

What’s in store for 2009?

With the perfunctory disclaimer that past performance does not predict future results, we fear in 2009 it may however be quite true. We wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a continuation of the stagnant real estate market which has had a choke-hold on home sales in 2008. Interestingly, the last major downturn in real estate which began in 1989 was caused by an overall weak economy and most importantly the loss of jobs. In contrast, the current housing downturn has in effect created the recession—a reversal of past cycles.

 

That’s a long way of saying that housing cannot recover until the economy does and the economy won’t recover until housing stabilizes. Sound like a Catch-22? Well it is. And while it appeared in the second quarter of 2008 that the real estate recovery might begin in 2009, we now believe that will be pushed out at least another year. That said, any sign of a recovery will manifest with a leveling off of inventory and declining home values. A period of stagnant home values will invariably last for another year or two following a price plateau as buyers still wary of a volatile market will only reluctantly reenter the market. Most will wait too long and catch prices on the way back up but there’s no telling when that will happen. We’re not telling you to run out and buy a home as part of a fear based campaign, “Hurry or you may miss the bottom”, but in every market there are opportunities which should be examined. We learned long ago to resist trying to explain to people why they should buy a home and rather help those who are already motivated. Like the old saying, “You can lead a horse to water…” but he has to be thirsty. This year’s wild cards? Interest rates, consumer confidence the recessions and jobs, jobs, jobs!.

 

Cheers,

Drew

Belmont Week in Review–December 17th 2008

NEW LISTINGS

The holidays are in full swing and you can tell by the deafening silence that Belmont’s housing activity is slower than the holiday deliveries promised by UPS. A very unscientific barometer is our phones are eerily quiet (which is not a bad thing one time of the year) but some ringing other than the Salvation Army’s bells would still be welcome—let’s not jinx anything.

The inventory of homes for sale is at 40—down considerably from just a few weeks ago. Unfortunately it’s not sales that have been driving the numbers lower but rather sellers have thrown in the towel for the year as ten homes were taken off of the market. We just closed escrow on the last two homes we will sell in 2008 and now it’s so quiet that we decided to take a week off from posting homes for sale to take a break and trade the stress of work for the equally demanding stress of preparing for entertaining the family for Christmas. Don’t get me wrong, we love the holidays but it’s non-stop entertaining 24/7 for three days around here.

Our next post about the housing picture will be our year-end wrap-up in early January where we stick our necks out and make foolhardy predictions which can only backfire in today’s economy. Nevertheless we’ll hold true to our word and re-cap last year’s predications (ugh) and try to realistically let you know where we think things are headed in 2009, as well as give the year-end results from one of the most tumultuous real estate years in history.

Stay tuned though as we'll invariably come up with a few fun posts before the year is out.

Until then, Happy Holidays!Christmas Tree

There have been only three new listings in Belmont in the past two weeks.

Debbie 1 Debbie Lane—3 Bed 2 bath 1,800 Sq. Ft. home on a 5,850 Sq. Ft. lot. LISTED for $ 998,000. This is a good solid home at a fair price and located on a small cul-de-sac on Belmont’s eastern hills exposure (than means warmer). It has a usable level rear yard and hopefully you’ll like the small pool or else you can fill it in. It last sold for $740,000 in 2003 during a lull in the market. No OPEN HOUSES listed. Listed By Deborah Mitchell Hawes, Coldwell Banker.

El Camino 820 El Camino Real—5 Bed 3 bath 1,800 Sq. Ft. home. This place has been a rental and really that’s what it should continue to be used for. It offers great tenant parking which of course is very desirable considering the home is on the El Camino. NO OPEN HOUSE LISTED. Listed By H. Craig Thorson, Red Hawk Real Estate Inc.

Yorkshire 418 Yorkshire—3 Bed 1 Bath 1,010 Sq. Ft. home on a 5,000 Sq. Ft. lot. LISTED for $ 577,900. With all of the sales in this area over $600,000 this home is priced to sell. Here’s a perfect well kept home at a discount. This is our BEST DEAL of the week. NO OPEN HOUSES LISTED. Listed By Michael A. Ames, Patriot Properties.

 

No Homes went into a pending status in the last two weeks.

 

SOLD HOMES

 

Well, sold home actually.

 

Fairway ↔1636 Fairway Drive 3 Bed 1.5 Bath 1,720 Sq. Ft. home on a 6,000 Sq. Ft. USABLE lot. LISTED for

$799,000 and sold in 33 days for $799,000. This home has potential but also needed a lot of work. Located on the site of the old golf course in Belmont and an appropriately named (and desirable) street.

 

Revitalizing a home in Belmont (with background music)

Many of you saw this home on our web page and at the open house. Several homes in the Hallmark area of Belmont have languished on the market for months without selling and everyone has been asking us how we sold our listing so fast. Well, here’s the answer in video form. Obviously we had to price the home attractively but we also had to add value. Preparing a home for sale takes a lot more than staging. Thanks to a cooperative seller, we transformed this home in only a few weeks and the transition was phenomenal–then we listed and sold the home in a week. Take a quick peek at this short video where we show you before and after results–then call us to transform your home for sale.





Download Revitalized Belmont Home

Belmont – November 2008 Housing Report

We anticipated Belmont home sales closing at eight for the month of November in a previous post where we did an extensive review of the local market.


Click on the play tab to hear an overview



These first two graphs will be explained more in detail further in our post but as you can see the percentage of homes selling over the seller’s asking price has increased.




(Click on the chart below for a full size image).



November Belmont Sales 2008 As you can see from the sales report, sales are down considerably from the previous month and down from than that of a year ago as well. We’ve added a chart showing the differences (below) that will help put November’s numbers in perspective.


(Click on the chart below for a full size image).


November Belmont Sales 2008 comparison



 


To sum up the data we’ve also added arrows depicting whether each indicator (or data point) is an improvement this November over the two previous periods reviewed. An up arrow ↑indicates that this November’s data is an improvement over the previous periods while a down arrow↓ indicates the opposite is true.


MEDIAN PRICE


The Median price, the point at which half of the homes have sold more or less, remains virtually unchanged from October 2008. Counter intuitively November’s median at $912,000 is higher than in 2007 when it stood at $894,000. The size of homes selling greatly impacts the price per square foot as smaller homes sell for more per square foot and larger homes tend to sell for more period. Accounting for the difference where in 2007 the median home size was 1645 square feet and this year where the median home sold was 1,910 sq. ft., at $514 per square foot that would make the 265 sq. ft. difference in size worth around $136,210 meaning that home values actually dropped 7% over last year’s November, not up 2% as the raw data suggests.


SALES


At only eight sales as compared to last November’s 20, it’s amazing that inventory is not higher. At the time we wrote this the inventory of active homes for sale in Belmont stood at only 50. To some degree that helps balance the supply and demand and keep prices in relatively check.


This November three homes sold over their asking price—the same number as last year. The difference is this year homes that sold over their asking price represented 43% of all the November sales while last year it represented only 15%.


PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT:


Be careful not to read too much into this. Last year homes sold in November sold for $70.00 more per square foot than this November—but the homes that sold last year were much smaller; and  as was discussed above, smaller homes tend to sell for more per square foot because land is a constant in the calculation and can account for half of a home’s value.


PERCENT RECEIVED:


This November sellers received on average 99.38% of their asking price—virtually unchanged over October’s performance and better than last November’s 97.9%. This needs to be weighed against the CDOM (Continuous Days on Market) and the number of price reductions statistics to be meaningful at all. Sure homes sold this November closer to their asking price, but did the seller receive more in real dollars? How many price reductions and how many days a typical home is on the market help put this number in perspective. Notice that homes which needed a price reduction in order to sell accounted for nearly 63% of all sales this November while last year they accounted for only 25%. But the time it took to sell a home, though higher than in October, dropped from 46 to only 29 days this November. What does this suggest? That more sellers are forced to lower their expectations and lower their asking prices sooner rather than later.


This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this intended to be specific to your situation-always consult a specialist who is familiar with the details of your situation.


Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended to be a representation of homes listed or sold exclusively by Drew or Christine Morgan or Carlmont Associates.


Download Nov.2008