Suppressing Consumer Confidence–It’s all in the headlines

There you go again…Int4

That line was made famous by Ronald Reagan when he was running for office against President Jimmy Carter in 1980. It was used by then Mr. Reagan as a way to diffuse opponents who harped upon the same issues over and over.

Well the media is at it again. The media loves its headlines and of course they need to sell papers so it’s not put past them to choose a sensational attention grabbing headline and find data to support it.

Take the August 19, 2010 report on home sales in the Bay Area. The headline in the San Jose Mercury read “Peninsula home sales plunge in July”. Define plunge?

They reported, “After steadily rising for several months, Peninsula home sales plummeted to near-historic lows in July as demand remained tepid and the federal homebuyer tax credits that had helped caffeinate the marketplace in the past year finally went away".

When were these “near historic lows”? How near and how low were they?

Clearly the article is saying sales are down, and they are, but they fail the test of balanced journalism when they neglect to add the caveat “as expected”.

The accuracy of their article is subject to scrutiny as well. I reviewed our own analysis which we do every month since I didn’t recall being impressed by the large discrepancy in year-over-year sales mentioned in their article.

Our data is mined from the Multiple Listing Service. It doesn't contain all home sales—just ones which were listed with real estate agents. The percentage of homes which transfer ownership without the involvement of a real estate professional remains consistently a small percentage of all the homes which transfer—consistent being the operative word since the delta from one month to another is negligible.

Our statistics showed 385 single family homes closed escrow in July 2010, down from 393 in July 2009. According to our data the number of fewer sales this July compared to last were just eight, or 2%.

The San Jose Mercury claimed it was the lowest month for home sales in 20 years. But how many fewer homes sold? They don’t say. They also don’t mention that Dataquick, the source cited in their article as the resource for their reporting, issued a statement on August 19th, 2010 (the date cited as being used by the San Jose Mercury) saying that they only estimated the sales for San Mateo County:

“San Diego-based MDA DataQuick is a division of MDA Lending Solutions, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. MDA DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Because of late data availability, sales were estimated in Alameda and San Mateo counties.”

But more to the point, industry experts predicted that home sales would drop after the expiration of the housing stimulus tax credit on May 1, 2010. Last year—the year used for comparing sales—the tax credit was still available in July.  One only has to go back to 2007 to see sales as low as they were this July, not 20 years.

In Santa Clara county they report: “1,159 single-family resale homes that closed escrow represented a drop of 24.3 percent from the 1,531 sold a year earlier, making this the second-slowest July since 1990, according to figures released Thursday by the real estate information service MDA DataQuick.

I didn’t bother to verify any of this information. But let’s assume it’s more accurate than what they reported about San Mateo County. Sales haven’t been this low since…1990. Why does that date ring a bell? It’s the date of the last housing downturn. So what their report tells us is home sales drop when the housing market drops, and sales have not started to pick up yet, because they no doubt will someday.

But what the report does is continue to fan the flames of consumer skepticism. Unless and until the housing market recovers, the rest of the country will suffer. Responsible reporting might help us get back on track sooner rather than later. We expect the facts—the news—good or bad. Just don’t skew what you choose to report to further your own agenda.

Sale SMC

Belmont Home Values – Report for July 2010

 
Belmont homes sales in July are just the thing headlines are made of.

Last month the median home price in Belmont was $ 975,000 and July it dropped 9% to $885,000. That doesn’t bode well for the positive home sales headlines, but rest assured the median size home that sold last month was also 18% larger. Comparing July sales this year to that of last July, in 2009 the median home price dropped 4.4%, but once again the size home which sold last July were 16% larger. What good does it do to report the median price when it varies from month to month so dramatically? Adjusting for the size home which sold can give us an indication of whether values are going up or down based on examining the price as adjusted for the size home selling. Clearly the values have gone up, even though the median price appears to have fallen.

Belmont July 2010

Sales

The number of homes which sold did disappoint us. This July saw only 20 homes close escrow as opposed to 32 in June and 31 last July. Since the “sales” ,or homes which closed escrow in July were no doubt actually “sold” in June, we also looked at the number of pending sales in July—homes which will close escrow in August. That stood at only 15 which is right in line with the last two years’ performance.

DOM

The time it took to sell a home this July was 27 days, down from 46 in June and 34 last July. That’s a good number to track to see where the momentum may be headed.

Percent Received

Sellers will be happy to note that on average they received $35,000 over their asking price with the average seller getting over 100%. Only four of the homes lowered their asking price—with one caveat these numbers are slightly skewed because one home received an offer $100,000 over their asking price. Nine sellers still accepted an offer less than asking—on average $23,000 less, with six sellers receiving what they were asking.

Inventory

Inventory levels remain high for this time of year. The number of available homes for sale is at 71; up from June’s 66 and last July’s 57. More supply would typically put downward pressure on prices, and 71 homes for sale his higher than normal. However, the increase is still well within healthy standards. The months of inventory—the time it would talk to deplete the inventory of homes for sale at the current rate they are selling—is at 3.7, a far cry from the national rate of nine months. This was helped by fewer home being listed for sale in July—only 27.

We attribute the increased inventory to several factors. Some sellers may need to sell their home and they’ve waited as long as they can, and/or sellers want to move and take advantage of lower interest rates on a move-up or retirement home. In any case more sellers are selling and some buyers are buying.

If you are thinking of selling your home this year the window of opportunity is upon us. The second wave buying season gets into full swing just after Labor Day. That gives us just enough time to get your home ready to show at its best. Give us a call for an interview if you are in the mood for a move.

 

California state first-time buyers tax credit deadline Aug. 15

State first-time buyers tax credit deadline Aug. 15
The Franchise Tax Board (FTB) recently announced it will accept applications for the California first-time home buyer tax credit through midnight on Sunday, Aug. 15, 2010.  The FTB believes it will have received more than enough applications to cover the $100 million allocated for eligible first-time home buyers.  It will continue to accept applications for the new-home portion of the state tax credit.

Due to the high volume of faxes, consumers may experience some delays and difficulties in connecting to the FTB fax number during normal business hours.  It can take several minutes or possibly up to an hour to connect and transmit the fax.  Buyers who receive a busy signal are advised to try again later. The fax number is open 24 hours a day, so consumers may fax applications during non-business hours when the line is not as busy.

More info.

Don't forget, for a limited time we're offering a 1% credit to any first-time homebuyers who use our services. Check our web site for details.

Bay Area Housing Affordability Index 2010 (HAI)

 
The California Association of Realtors tracks the "HAI" which is the Home Affordability Index. Their methodology can be found here, but in a nut shell they take into consideration the median home price for a particular area, the median income, the current interest rates and mash it into an index which essentially says what percentage of the population can qualify for the median price home assuming they put 20% down and have 30% (which is conservative) income to debt ratios. The higher the index the more home people can afford to buy a home. Since there are three variables which could affect this outcome, a dramatic shift in any one could influence the affordability trend. In the case of today's market two of the three variables are in favor of home affordability-low interest rates and lower median home prices. The third-income-has impacted these number to some degree and kept the index from being even higher as wages have remained stagnate and unemployment is high.

What this means to you is if you are considering whether to buy a home in the Bay Area, unless you are concerned over your job security this is one of the best times to purchase a home in the Bay Area in decades. 

HAI

 

THE ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY USED TO CALCULATE C.A.R.'S TRADITIONAL HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX (HAI)THE ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY USED TO CALCULATE C.A.R.'S TRADITIONAL HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX (HAI)

Step 1. MEDIAN PRICE: C.A.R.'s housing affordability index is based on the median price of existing single-family homes sold from C.A.R.'s monthly existing home sales survey. Starting in 1987, this survey is based on reports of closed escrow sales from 80 Boards or more of REALTORS® and multiple listing services around the state. Prior to 1987, the survey was based on reports from 45 Boards.

Step 2. DOWNPAYMENT: It is assumed that a household can make a 20 percent downpayment on the median-priced home. Therefore, the loan amount needed to purchase a home would be 80 percent of the median home sales price.

Step 3. INTEREST RATE: Using the national average effective mortgage interest rate on all fixed and adjustable rate mortgages. This is represented by the effective composite rate for previously occupied homes, which is reported monthly by the Federal Housing Finance Board.

Step 4.The monthly payment for PRINCIPAL, INTEREST, TAXES AND INSURANCE (PITI) is computed as the sum of three parts: -Monthly mortgage payment, based on the terms of the mortgage in Steps 2 & 3. -Monthly PROPERTY TAXES are assumed to be 1 percent of the median home sales price divided by 12. -Monthly INSURANCE PAYMENTS on the house are assumed to be 0.38 percent of the median home sales price divided by 12. The results of these three calculations are added together to find the PITI or total monthly payment for a household that buys the median priced home.

Step 5. It is then assumed that the monthly PITI can be no more than 30 percent of a household's income. Thus, the monthly housing payment is divided by .3 to come up with the MINIMUM INCOME NEEDED TO QUALIFY FOR A LOAN on the median-priced home.

Step 6. Starting in 1988, data for the distribution of households by various income ranges was obtained from Claritas. INCOME DISTRIBUTION figures were developed based on the projected percent change in the annual median household income. Prior to 1988, household income utilized in the housing affordability index was based on projections by C.A.R. using the 1980 census data as a base. (I wonder who "projects" incomes-my emphasis and what criteria is used for that)

Step 7. The minimum income amount calculated in Step 5 is multiplied by 12 to determine the minimum annual income needed to qualify. This amount is compared to the income distribution of households. The percent of the households with incomes greater than or equal to the minimum income becomes the HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX (HAI). NOTE: The quarterly HAI series begins in 2006, prior to that the series was monthly. The quarterly HAI for a given geographic area in a particular quarter is based upon the quarterly median price for that area as well as the quarterly income distribution for that area.

What if I get lousy neighbors?

Finding a home with great neighbors can be the luck of the draw.

When we help Buyers find a home many are concerned about who their new neighbors might be, I’m reminded of my childhood experiences trying to lay claim to the perfect campsite.

When I was a young, like so many of our generation, our parents took us on summer camping trips as a frugal way to enjoy a vacation. As we entered the campground, finding the perfect campsite was always a moment of great anticipation. Competition was fierce for the great sites; as with most people who want to get away for the weekend they also want to get away from other people—being a social society, we want to be close, but not too close. We’d drive through the entire campground before selecting the perfect spot—one with seclusion, beauty and because we had a camper, it had to be level. Of course we’d check out who our nearest neighbors would be too. My parents wanted to avoid parking in a spot near a bunch of rowdy kids, which was where the interests of my parents and I parted.

Settled in on the perfect spot, we began to enjoy our week-long vacation. As would often happen, we’d wake up Monday morning and see that our weekend neighbors had vacated to return home. That left us with a new dilemma—who would be our new neighbors? We knew we had no control over who might choose to park next to us and wondered if they would evaluate us as we did our neighbors, (looking back I’m sure many seniors chose to drive on past our campsite after spotting three active kids playing around).

I was always interested in who would we get as our new band of travelers. Of course we had no control over who our camp fellows might be, and often provisionally contemplated moving to a new campground should our new nomadic neighbors prove too loud.

Finding a home with great neighbors is reminiscent of these camping expeditions. Like finding the perfect site, you quickly learn that the neighbors you have today may not be the ones you get tomorrow as like you, they too can move. Sometimes you’re lucky enough to get the quietest neighbors in the world and then they decide that Johnny needs a companion and the next thing you know you’re waking up during the night to Rex’s midnight pangs of loneliness.

While it’s prudent to pay attention to a neighborhood and who your new neighbors might be, keep in mind that you should not rely on today as a constant —good or bad. Your neighbors could easily be here today and gone tomorrow.

 

When Not to sell Your Home

PODCAST SERIES

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Real estate markets are cyclical and can last ten years as we’ve recently seen, but even within a cycle there are better times during each year in which to sell.

The short answer is the worst time is in the winter, with the best times being in the spring and fall but here’s why. Psychologically, it appears buyers are more motivated to get a home early on in the year. Writing a huge check to Uncle Sam in April could be one incentive, and fulfilling one’s New Year’s resolutions could be another—both are frequently mentioned. Whatever the reason more buyers come out in the spring and tend to pay more for a home (as a percent of asking) than any other time.

The year’s spring market started off rather unremarkable due to the uncertainty of real estate as a holding while many buyers took (and continue to take) a wait and see attitude.

This graph illustrates the favorable fall selling conditions with the seller receiving a high percentage of their asking price. Notice that in October the amount a seller receives typically bounces back up? We call this phenomenon the “fall bounce” as October sales are consummated in September/October.

That could make this fall a prime time to sell in this year’s cycle. Fall is typically another window of opportunity to sell and obtain the most money for your home and this one appears to be shaping up quite nicely. The market has been rebounding steadily since the beginning of the year, and appears it may crescendo this fall, at least for the year.

We wrote a series on our blog at BeautifulMountainBlog.org about when’s the best time to sell where we analyze the important market indicators to determine favorable selling conditions. Some of which are::

·         The month’s supply of homes for sale

·         The amount a seller received of asking

·         The days it takes to sell a home, or DOM

If you are considering moving this fall we’d be glad to answer any questions you may have about the process.

Download when_not_to_sell_a_home.mp3

Home Sales Decline As Tax Credits Expire – WSJ.com

"Some 60% of the 109 economists and other analysts surveyed by MacroMarkets LLC expect home prices to decline this year, up from 40% in May."

via online.wsj.com

I found this amusing. If their numbers are right, at 66% the economists are no better than the Supreme Court Justices at arriving at a consensus, and probably no more accurate than our local weather announcer when they do.

Why Are Interest Rates So Low and What Does it Mean to Me?

Unasked2 copy Whether you are thinking of buying or already own a home the current historically low interest rates may help you save thousands of dollars.

Rates in the last week have averaged the lowest point since records were first kept over 30 years ago. Refinancing today may help you save hundreds of dollars in monthly interest payments but even more important are the long term savings.

Rates are low right now because the financial crisis in Europe is driving the appetite for U.S. bonds which in turn raises the price and lowers the yield (interest) payment. And since mortgage rates roughly track the 10 Year Treasury Bond you can see where rates are headed and why. Rates are the lowest they’ve been–period.

If you think about the past 30 year trend of interest rates, which have averaged around 9%, it’s easy to guesstimate that the odds are good rates will be higher in the future rather than lower. What does that mean to you? If you are considering a purchase it means that there are two ways to look at it: if you buy a home at today’s rates either your monthly payment will be substantially lower or you can buy a considerably larger home for the same amount of money. In fact a payment on a $1,000,000 home ($800,000 loan) would be around $4,234 per month as opposed to $6,437 at the average historic 9% rate. But that doesn’t even begin to tell the whole story.

Not everyone stays in their home for Fhfb_contract_rate30 years but this offers up a substantial savings in interest payments. Most people aren’t aware of the long term costs of home ownership so you’ll be interested to note that at today’s rate your total interest payments over 30 years would total $725,000 and at the historical 9% rate it would be as high as $1,517,000–over double the interest payment for the same home. What could you do with an extra $793,000?

Perhaps rates will never be as high as they were back in the late 70’s and early 80’s but rates have still averaged 6.7% over the last 15 years during a time of historically low rates.

Case-shiller MSANow combine this with the recent decrease in home values and it’s hard to argue that waiting to buy a home will significantly benefit you.

Belmont – Home sales for June 2010 in 94002

Belmont June 2010 SALES

Home sales in Belmont held their own as 25 homes sold in the month of June. Last month as you may recall 34 homes sold, the most in as many months. In June of 2009 20 homes sold and last year there wasn't a looming deadline to close escrow for a tax credit.

(click on the graphic for a full size picture)

Speaking of tax credit, don’t forget we’ve effectively extended the $8,000 tax credit by offering any first time buyer 1% of the purchase price as a credit towards their closing costs for anyone who buys a home through us and closes escrow between now and September 30th 2010.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price took another jump up from $848,500 last month to $975,000—a 15% increase. The size homes which sold during the same period were about 10% larger so there was still some upward pressure on prices not just the fact that larger homes were selling.

DOM

The time it took to sell a home in Belmont was up from 25 days last month to 46 days in June; a pattern that more-or-less holds true each year as folks have graduations and vacations on their minds in lieu of house hunting.

INVENTORY

The number of homes for sale has stayed relatively flat at 66 as compared to 60 in May and 62 one year ago. And the number of new listings appears flat too at around 30 each month. As long as sales continue at this pace inventory should remain in check.

With interest rates hitting the lowest point since records were kept it has helped spur refinances and it remains to be seen if it will spur more fist time homebuyer sales. If you are considering buying a home on the peninsula with rates and values at what appear to be the trough, you may want to consider getting that home you’ve always wanted but perhaps held off for until more favorable conditions—they’re here.

Don't forget we update the market statistics for San Mateo County, San Carlos, Redwood City and Redwood Shores each month on our web site at MorganHomes.com.

$8,000 Tax Credit Extended to September 30, 2010

Missed out on the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit?

 You'll be glad to know you can still receive $8,000 when you buy your first home through us.

 How do we do it? Simple. If you buy a home through us between now and September 30th, 2010 we will credit you 1% of the purchase price up to $8,000 in escrow for your closing costs.

 What's the difference between our credit and the government tax credit?

Well for starters you won't have to wait until next year's tax filing to get the refund-we credit it to you at closing so you can really put it to work.*

 Call us for details.

 

 Drew & Christine Morgan

"Helping People Make Good Decisions"sm

 

Carlmont Associates

1940 Ralston Ave.

Belmont, CA 94002

01124318 & 01174047

Office: 650-508-1441

Fax:    650-591-4329

 

*Some restrictions apply.