Shifting Market in Play

NOTE: Shifting Market in Play is an article we did for the Examiner in December, when asked to comment on 2016—A Year in Review: This is a link to the original article.

In order to understand our current housing market, one must appreciate that markets are constantly in flux. In our town of Belmont, we looked at home sales and compared the periods from January thru November for years 2015 and 2016.

Let’s first discuss the market conditions. There’s a lot of hyperbole as to the state of our current housing market. Sellers are still in the mindset that they hold all of the cards, yet buyers are beginning to push back on prices. Sellers are receiving fewer offers, many have had to lower their asking prices, and homes are often times closing below the asking price—something that rarely happened from 2012-2015. This suggests a shifting market.

Clearly, the sky is not falling, the shift is towards a more normal market, where homes sit on the market longer, and may sell above, at, or below the seller’s asking price. This long awaited market shift is not a correction, but rather a predictable and healthy move towards a more balanced and sustainable market. To be blunt, prices have risen to a level at which the majority of buyers can no longer afford the median priced home, resulting in a cooling down effect on the housing market.

We first examined all of the home sales in Belmont that occurred in 2015 through November in order to compare those with the same period of home sales in 2016. We added no search filter other than the date range, since the larger the pool of sales, the more reliable the data.

2015 2016 % ∆
Sales 178 181 1.7%
Median Home Price $1,516,500 $1,389,000 -8.4%
Home ft² 1850 1760 -4.9%
$/ft² 830 856 3.1%
DOM (Days on market) 12 11 -8.3%
% Received 114.5 107.2 -6.4%
Price Reductions 9 19 111.1%
For How Much $120,638 $118,477 -1.8%
Sold Over Asking 156 149 -4.5%
Sold At Asking 6 10 66.7%
Sold Under Asking 16 22 37.5%

 

It’s clear that a market shift has occurred. Note that the median home price reflects a significant decrease year over year (YOY), and part of that is simply because smaller homes sold in 2016 skewing the numbers. But in almost every category there’s a distinct shift towards a more normal market. There were fewer homes selling for more than the asking price and the ones that did sell over asking sold for 33% less over asking than in 2015. There were more cancelled listings, and more price reductions for greater amounts. The inventory of homes for sale is growing—up from 0.3 to 0.7 months of inventory (still considered seller’s territory).

On a more macro-level, when we look at the San Francisco Metropolitan Statistical Area (SFMSA) as produced by Case-Shiller for Standard and Poor’s, which encompasses the counties of Marin, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco and San Mateo, one can see that while the YOY increase in their index was a rise of almost 15%, there was only a nominal 0.5% increase in home values since April.

How long will the new normal market continue? We’ll save that wild card question for other talking heads. Nobody really knows of course, and anybody that professes to know should give you cause for concern. However, the market appears to have hit a price threshold. As fewer buyers can qualify for the median priced home, more sellers will be getting less windfall profits like they did during the meteoric rise over the last three years.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA with RE/MAX Star Propeties. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Free Solar Panels May not be Such a Bright Idea

Solar power leases may have pitfalls. We’re seeing more and more solar panel popping up on home these days and with them come issue when trying to resell one’s home. Studies have suggested that the addition of solar panels on a home can boost a home’s value. But sometimes those solar panels can sabotage a deal when it comes time to sell.Solar Power Savings

Selling Green Homes

Making the Case for Energy-Efficient Homes

Energy-Efficient Mortgages Gain Popularity

More Builders Find the Sun Is a Selling Point

Do Green Homes Fetch Higher Sales Prices?

More companies are offering home owners a contract to lease solar panels where they pay no upfront costs for the installation and could start saving on their electricity bills right away. But some home owners who sign onto these deals are finding some snags when they go to sell.

Many potential buyers are leery of taking on the leasing payment contracts for the next 15 to 17 years because they often have to qualify on credit from the solar companies themselves, in addition to the mortgage. Also, some buyers are hesitant to sign a contract because they’re concerned the solar equipment will become obsolete or won’t amount to a big savings in the end after paying the leasing fee.

We asked Solar city over to our home in Belmont for an estimate. Of course the carrot is free installation, but the savings is minimal. Since they are leasing you the equipment, they take an override on the energy their panels on your roof produce–and they sell that energy to you at a reduced rate–but it’s not anywhere close to free, as if you owned the equipment.

But we’re seeing issues trying to re-sell home with leased solar panels. Some home buyers are refusing to buy the house unless the seller buys out of the remaining lease payment stream — which could be $15,000 or more. If you’re going to eventually buy-out the contract anyway, it’s a far better idea to but it up front and enjoy 100% of the energy dollar savings.

In Fresno, Calif., a couple trying to sell their house told The Los Angeles Times that it attracted multiple offers but two sets of buyers backed out of the contracts due to the leased solar panels on their roof. The buyers felt the long-term cost of the lease agreement was too high or they were concerned about the credit qualifications they had to meet in order to take over the lease. Ultimately, the couple selling the home had to pay $22,000 to break the lease with the solar company so that they could sell the house.

With the rising popularity of solar, we already have seen several disputes arise over solar panel leases, and we expect the problem will get nothing but more frequent.

Residential solar installations are rising dramatically — up by 50 percent per year since 2012, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Before you sign on the dotted line for a solar lease, check with your accountant for tax consequences if you purchase the system, you might qualify for a tax incentive write-off. A simple home equity line of credit may be all you need to qualify to own 100% of the power your home generates.

Source: “Leased Solar Panels Can Complicate – or Kill – a Home Sale,” The Los Angeles Times (March 22, 2015)

How Low Can Housing Inventory go?

The year is just getting started but already there’s a problem with the housing inventory levels. Belmont’s housing inventory consisted of five homes for the month of January 2016. To put that into perspective, Belmont’s housing inventory has averaged 41 homes a month since 1998. In 2015 the average for the year was 12 homes a month. Since housing inventory fluctuates seasonally, we looked at the housing inventory levels for each January—that averaged 30—remember, we are at five right now.

This inadequate housing supply puts intense upward pressure on home prices. As we have seen in the past year alone, the amount sellers received of asking increased from 105% in January 2015 to 107% in 2016.

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

Month’s supply of inventory is the measure of how many months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of home sales. For example, if there are 50 homes on the market and 10 homes selling each month, there is a 5 month supply of homes for sale.

The months of supply is a good indicator of whether a particular real estate market is favoring buyers or sellers. Typically, a market that favors sellers has less than 6 months of supply, while more than 6 months of supply indicates an excess of homes for sale that favors buyers. Belmont currently is running a housing inventory level of .56—yes, less than one month. On a national level, we’re still hovering around 5.6 months of inventory. Home Sales January 2016

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

The median home price in Belmont increased 24% YOY, from $1,210,000 in 2015 to $1,500,000 in January 2016.

The median size home which sold increased YOY too, from 1,500 sqft in 2015 to 1,610 sqft in 2016. If it’s any consolation to buyers, while homes went up 24% in January 2016, buyers did get a home that was 7.3% larger.

PRICE REDUCTIONS

Price reductions remain at an all-time low. Only one seller in 2015 had to lower their initial asking price and in 2016 no one suffered the price reduction fate. Imagine the chatter around the water cooler when it’s time to fess up to your colleagues yours is the only home that had to have its asking price lowered.

OVER/UNDER GAME

Of the homes that sold in 2016, seven sold for over the asking price, one home sold right at asking and one home sold for less—strange as that may sound given the tight market conditions—it’s still possible to overprice one’s home.

Days on Market [DOM]

The time it took to sell a home in Belmont dropped nominally from 12.7 days in 2015 to 11 days in 2016.

Belmont Home Sales Drop, But Values Rise

Any way you slice this month’s statistics for Belmont home sales, seller’s really made out this October.

October is historically not a great month for home sales, but in recent years with warmer fall weather, it’s been possible to market homes well into the winter months.

Let’s look at the numbers for October 2015…

Belmont Home Sales October 2015
Belmont Home Sales October 2015-Click on the image to enlarge.

 

SALES

Belmont home sales (the number of homes sold), was down 24% year-over-year; down from 21 in 2014, to 16 in 2015. A 24% drop seems like a lot, until you realize only five less homes sold.

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

Belmont’s median home price rose 19% over last October, and was up considerably from the prior month of September.

The median home price in Belmont now stands at $1,546,500. To put that large number into perspective, it has only been surpassed twice before—both times earlier in this year—in May, and again last June. The all-time peak for Belmont’s home values occurred in June of 2015 when we reached a median home price of $1,629,000. Does this mean Belmont home values have peaked? Perhaps. The homes that closed escrow back in June sold for 5.3% more than now, and yet were 6.7% smaller. We’re going to temper that statement with the statistic that the summer price peak to October fall-off has occurred in six of the last eight years.

PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT

This is a check and balance against the median home price. If much larger homes sell during a given period, the median home price will typically yield a larger number as well, while the price per square feet which homes sell for will drop. It’s a quirky inverse relationship that manifests itself since larger homes tend to sell for less per square foot. This happens because land is not involved in the square foot equation,  and can frequently account for up to 50% of a home’s value.

For example, homes which sold in October of last year, were 2,000 sqft in size, compare to 1,905 sqft this year. They sold for $707 per sqft as compared to $877 this October, while the lot sizes remained fairly constant. This means that the median price for homes went up in real dollars—not just that larger homes sold this October.

DAYS ON THE MARKET (DOM)

In both years, it took on average only 18 days to sell a home.

PRICE REDUCTIONS

In 2014, 14% of Belmont home sellers had to lower their asking price. In 2015 that number dropped to .6%–just over one-half of one percent.

OVER-ASKING OFFERS

In 2014 66% of Belmont homes sold for more than the seller’s asking price—this October that number went up to 87%.

The number of homes which sold at the seller’s asking price represented 14% of all sales in 2014 and none in 2015, while the homes which sold under the asking price dropped from 20% in 2014, to only 13% in 2015.

PERCENT RECEIVED

Of the homes which sold in Belmont this October, the seller’s received 109.5% of their asking price, contrasted to last October when they received 107.5.

As you can see Belmont housing market fared extremely well this October.

We are now into the ninth year of economic recovery, and the fourth year of the median home price increasing steadily in Belmont. The question we are being asked by many buyers is “are we at the peak”? This uncertainty in the market can cause buyers to hesitate and sit on the sidelines to wait for the next downturn. If that happens it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

We’re not saying that we believe we’re there yet, but one thing is certain, home values are at an all-time high and we won’t stay there forever.

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years’ experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

You can find them on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and also find them on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Save the Daylight- When Did Daylight Saving Time Start

How and When Did Daylight Saving Time Start?

It’s that time of the year to turn the clocks back to end Daylight Saving Time.

Of course you’ll remember to turn your clocks back when you go to bed Saturday night, but do you know why–beside for the obvious reasons that you want to be in sync with the rest of the country?

My brother sent me a great book a few years ago titled “Seieze The Daylight” by David Prerau that explained the whole reason we have a Daylight Saving period and how it originated. Below, you’ll find a brief synopsis of his book.

For example, did you know that one of the more staunch advocates for when to end Daylight Saving Time is the candy industry? They rely heavily on the sale of candy near Halloween. Over the years they have lobbied heavily to end Daylight Saving Time after Halloween so that their customers would enjoy an additional hour of trick-or-treating. Looks like they finally won.

Ben Franklin-of “early to bed and early to rise” fame-was apparently the first person to suggest the concept of daylight savings, according to computer scientist David Prerau, author of the book Seize the Daylight: The Curious and Contentious Story of Daylight Saving Time. Benjamin Franklin

While serving as U.S. ambassador to France in Paris, Franklin wrote of being awakened at 6 a.m. and realizing, to his surprise, that the sun would rise far earlier than he usually did. Imagine the resources that might be saved if he and others rose before noon and burned less midnight oil, Franklin, tongue half in cheek, wrote to a newspaper.

“Franklin seriously realized it would be beneficial to make better use of daylight but he didn’t really know how to implement it,” Prerau said.

It wasn’t until World War I that daylight savings were realized on a grand scale. Germany was the first state to adopt the time changes, to reduce artificial lighting and thereby save coal for the war effort. Friends and foes soon followed suit.

In the U.S. a federal law standardized the yearly start and end of daylight saving time in 1918-for the states that chose to observe it.

But there was also a real need for standardized time too. Prior to public train transportation, people traveled very slowly from point to point. Once they arrived in a town they would reset their watch to whatever time the local town square clock tower read. Once transportation by train became prevalent, people would find themselves in perhaps more than one time zone in a day and people waiting for a train needed to know that everyone was on the same relative time.

During World War II the U.S. made daylight saving time mandatory for the whole country, as a way to save wartime resources. Between February 9, 1942, and September 30, 1945, the government took it a step further. During this period daylight saving time was observed year-round, essentially making it the new standard time, if only for a few years.

Since the end of World War II, though, daylight saving time has always been optional for U.S. states. But its beginning and end have shifted-and occasionally disappeared.

During the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo, the U.S. once again extended daylight saving time through the winter, resulting in a one percent decrease in the country’s electrical load, according to federal studies cited by Prerau.

Thirty years later the Energy Policy Act of 2005 was enacted, mandating a controversial month long extension of daylight saving time, starting in 2007.

But does daylight saving time really save any energy?

Want more? Click here…

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

You can find them on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and also find them on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

When is the Best Time to Sell My Home?

When is the best time to sell my home is perhaps one of the top five questions we are frequently asked. On my desk I have a crystal ball—literally. And often when I am asked to venture a guesstimate as to how the real estate market will perform, I simply stare down at the glass orb until my clients’ eyes follow mine to my point of fixation, and they realize their question was really impossible for me to answer with any certainty.

If you’re read our blog page, you know I love to look at the numbers—how much have homes have gone up, what percent sellers are receiving of asking, etc.

These numbers don’t really tell me what will happen—they’re historical numbers so they only tell me what did happen. But before we get started, no decent look at the market would be worth anything if we didn’t first explain our thought process and methodology.

In assigning probabilities, there are two common to employ. Frequency based probabilities, which rely and past data points to lend credibility to predicting a future event, and subjective probabilities based upon our belief that something will or will not occur.

Of course the belief or subjective probability approach at first glance appears just as the name infers—that it’s too subjective. However it’s actually quite important, and you probably use this approach more often than you do frequency based analysis when conducting your day-to-day assessment of say, whether or not you think the price of gas will be lower next week to decide if you want to wait to fill up then.

What about when we use both approaches, or aren’t sure which one is more appropriate for a given situation? Refinancing your home is a good example. Today’s question might be, “Will rates go lower than they are today, or will they soon rise to more historical levels?”. Here we might use frequency based analysis to look at the historical trend of mortgage rates and see where they are today in relation to average historical rates. Seeing how they are near the bottom of where rates have been over the last 30 years, one might conclude that they have nowhere to go but up, yet once again they dropped this October even after the Fed’s all but promised a rate hike—because things change.

One of the problems inherent in using only frequency based analysis is that there’s a trade-off between accuracy of the information (having enough data points) and relevancy (how old is the data). Going back further and plotting more data points is certainly going to give us more information to evaluate, but the relevancy begins to drop off as we got too far back in time, when say our economy was in a different state— pre-internet for example.

So it is with these probability approaches in mind that we deliver to you our trend for the percent a seller receives of their asking price–each month of the year, over the past 17 years. Glancing at the graph one can easily see that spring appears to be the best point at which sellers get the highest percentage of their asking price. Note: the months tagged in the graph above the line are the months in that year where the seller received the highest percentage of their asking, while the red numbers below the line illustrate the month in each year where the seller received the least percent of their asking price. **clicking on these graphs will bring up an enlarged image.Best Time To Sell A Home

These are the percentages of frequency in occurrence where each one has an 8.3% (1/12) equal chance of homes selling either over or under the asking price in a given month.Best Months

May is a clear winner as to when reported sales of homes showed that sellers obtained the highest percent over their asking price—statistically. Since most of May’s homes probably sold in April, it’s more likely that the sale actually was consummated in April with a typical 30 day list to close time frame.

The problem with probabilities based solely upon past performance is that things can change quickly. Governments can topple or be overthrown sending the world into economic panic, external natural effects such as tornados, tidal waves, droughts, El Nino events, etc. can all contribute to altering selling and buying patterns. For example, October never shows up as a month where the least amount a seller received occurred, except for in 2001, after the September 11th terrorist’s attacks.

Also interesting to note is that if one breaks down this graph into pre-Deep Recession and Post Recovery periods there’s much less of a clear distinction as to which month is consistently a winner—or loser. An important and fair distinction should also be made in relying solely upon the percent a seller receives of asking as a definitive demarcation as to when selling your home is optimal. Sellers could be pricing their homes lower in the spring than they do later in the year, when new higher price levels have already been achieved. So measuring how much the seller received in real dollars is actually more important, but doing so involves tracking the median price trend which is easily influenced by relatively small market samples when larger or smaller homes sell in a given month. Tracking the price per square foot per month would help add more information into the mix, but that is susceptible to errors when homes with larger or smaller lots are involved.

And to throw the final wrench into the works, one must remember that during these 17 years there have been two recessions, and a lot of variance of interest rates and various government stimulus packages which have influenced people’s personal behaviors one month over another, not to mention El Nino’s and droughts which also have affected buying and selling patterns.

We hope this has helped further the cause of trying to turn the uncertainty of when to sell your home into a measurable risk. But remember, as Mark Twain is attributed to having once said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme”.

 

 

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

You can find them on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and also find them on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

 

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

 

Best of Tour Home Search for 10/13/2015

After a break away from touring the past few weeks it was good to get back out and see what new homes are available. We’ve noticed a slight cooling of the market which isn’t all that uncharacteristic of a fall market but this year seems slower than normal–it’s still early in the quarter though.

This is our best of tour home for Belmont and San Carlos today.

Belmont

This home on Lincoln Avenue is a real fixer upper but the potential is written all over the blueprints.

Situated on a large 12,700+ sqft lot according to the agent, all it needs is a renovation to make this home worth $2,000,000.Lincoln

SAN CARLOS

6 Pepper Lane in San Carlos is on the opposite end of the spectrum. This move-in condition home is ideal for a large household with 5 bedrooms, four full baths and 3,113 sqft of living space. Great sunset and twilight views as well as plenty of room for entertaining. Listed with our good friends Teri and Kristina.6 Pepper

10/15/2015 4:30PM-6:30PM

10/17/2015 1:00PM-3:00PM

10/18/2015 1:00PM-3:00PM

Call us if you are interested in either of these two unique opportunities…650-508-1441

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

You can find them on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and also find them on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Home Sales Flat for Belmont

Home sales were flat for Belmont, but home values still seem to to be reaching new highs. Belmont’s housing market is in its typical summer slumber with agents and their clients taking well deserved vacations. We hope you are enjoying a getaway soon as well.

With summer in full swing, we take step back and review Belmont’s single family housing market for June 2015.

Belmont Home Sales
Belmont Home Sales-June 2015

SALES

19 single family homes closed during the month of June while last year there were 22—a number which is relatively insignificant except to note that all indications are inventory is not increasing yet. When inventory increases, prices flatten out so we’re keeping a close watch on that.

CURRENT INVENTORY

This June our inventory of single family homes available for purchase was seven—last June there were 22 to choose from. The month’s supply of homes—the time it would take to deplete all of the available listings at the current rate of sales dropped from one month of inventory in 2014 to .35 this June. Anything below six months indicates a seller’s market. Currently, the national inventory of homes stands at around 5.6 months.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price last June in Belmont was $1,075,000 and this June it was $1,400,000–$325,000 higher or an increase of around 30%. That’s what you will hear in the media and that’s what gets reported and passed along at the water cooler.

But the homes which sold this June were larger by 28%. So did the market only go up by 2%? Not really, the math isn’t a straight line calculation like that. But what it hints to is that values aren’t increasing as much as the raw statistics might lead one to believe. In fact the size of homes sold in the two periods are so dissimilar that it’s hard to draw a definitive conclusion by staring at numbers.

The variance in the size of homes in the two period works out to 502 sqft. At the 2014 rate of $712 per square foot that represents $358,000 which we could subtract from the deltas in the two years media home price of $325,000 to reach an adjusted median price slightly less than 2014. Same conclusion.

The only wrench is that larger homes always sell for less per square foot (since the land they sit upon is a constant and not taken into consideration). But while the size of the homes in 2015 were 28% larger, they still sold for a higher price per square foot, $901 in 2015 vs only $712 in 2014. So were the lots that much larger in 2015? Not really. In both years the lots the homes were on were about the same size.

There is unfortunately, no escaping that this year a single family home in Belmont cost a buyer $189.00 more per square foot—or a 26% increase over last June.

As for how competitive the market is—homes last June sold over the seller’s asking price by on average 9%. This June they sold at an average 19% over asking. Tough to be a buyer right now, or a buyer’s agent for that matter–while all of the sellers we work with are elated.

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years’ experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

You can find them on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and also find them on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

 

 

Belmont Home Sales Off To A Frenetic Start

 

It seems the Belmont housing market is off to another strong start in 2014.

In every category we track, homes sales in February of 2014 were stronger than in 2013.

Belmont February 2014

SALES

Sales were at a dead tie with last year. Considering there were fewer homes to sell, that’s a strong indicator of the urgency on the part of buyers to get a home before the prices (and/or interest rates) rise any further.

[click on the image for a larger picture]

NEW LISTINGS

This February Belmont had 20 new listings compared to 23 in 2013.

INVENTORY

The number of available homes for sale this February was only 14—down from 17 last year during the same time.

DAYS ON THE MARKET (DOM)

The average time it took a Belmont home seller to sell their home this February was only 11 days, down from 17 last year.

PERCENT RECEIVED

Sellers for Belmont homes received on average 109.32% of their asking price compared to last February when they received 107.37%—still far above the state average.

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

The total months it would take to sell of the current inventory dropped from 1.55 months last February to 1.27 months this year. The national average is 5 months of inventory.

All indications are for another strong year—as we predicted. Next report we’ll wrap up Q1 with March’s numbers.

If you are considering a move this year, the spring time is a great time to get top dollar with competitive offers.

WRAP-UP

SELLERS—

GOOD NEWS—you can sell your home quickly at the right price. Most homes are selling over asking if priced according to our current market conditions—that is to say most homes sell for +/ 10% over asking so pricing at what your homes is worth makes it overpriced to buyers.

Not all agents get you the same results—interview wisely.

BAD NEWS—this seller’s market won’t last forever. More homes are coming on the market because more sellers have equity to move. The days of paying too much for a home and windfall profits are nearing the end.

BUYERS—don’t think if you read the above that you can wait out the market. That’s a fool’s game as although the rate of appreciation will wane, it’s still in positive territory for the foreseeable future.

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Drew & Christine Morgan did not necessarily participate in these sales.

Belmont Home Sales – Are We Headed for a Cool Down or Not?

Like a marathon finish before the New Year, Belmont’s home sales hung in there for at least one more month as October’s home sale statistics showed little signs of distress.

It’s actually amazing for us to see just how strong the market is going into what is typically a seasonal slowdown period.

In order to make any sense of Belmont’s housing statistics, we look at year-over-year numbers rather than month-to-month changes which are often influenced by seasonal factors.

Belmont Home Sale Activity-October 2013

SALES

The sales for October were virtually unchanged from last year when 23 homes sold in 2012 and 24 in 2013.

How’s the Inventory?

That’s all the buzz with agents complaining daily about no housing inventory.

 

There are three factors to look at when thinking about the inventory level.

  • The number of new listings
  • The number of sales
  • And the overall inventory level

The number of new listings this October went from 14 in 2012 to 17, the number of sales were up this year by one, yet the overall inventory dropped from 32 to 24 this October.

In October of 2013 the number of available homes for sale was 32, while this year that number dropped to only 24. That brought down the “Months of Inventory” statistic which measure the time (in months) that it would take to sell all of the existing homes on the market at the current rate of sales. Nationwide, that number is still around five months of inventory.

Belmont dropped from 1.39 months last October to 1.04 this year.

With sales staying relatively static, and new listings increasing in 2013, why then does the months of inventory counterintuitively shrink rather than grow?

The answer lies in the number of leftover homes from the previous month which linger on the market. Last year the market was strong, but not as hot as this year, so some of the September homes for sale last year managed to spill over into October causing the overall inventory to increase.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price this October recorded at $1,135,000 which may have been a seasonal drop from August 2013 when it stood at a record high of $1,239,000, but an increase year-over-year of 16.1% when last October the median price was only $977,500. In both periods the size homes which sold were relatively unchanged at 2,037 Sq. in 2012 to 2,060 Sq. in 2013.

PERCENT RECEIVED—THE SIZZLE FACTOR Hot Pepper 25

So how hot is the market? Just last month we were seeing some signs of a cool fall market but October’s number appear to have staved off the winter housing chill for at least one more month. Could it be the warmer than usual fall we are enjoying? Perhaps. In any case, this October 20 of the homes or 83% sold over the seller’s asking price, while one home sold at asking and only two sold for less.

Last October only 35% of the homes sold over the asking price, two sold at asking and 22% sold for less.

The percent sellers received of their asking price were 100.3 vs. 108.5 in 2013. Hotter than last year, and hotter than last month when the sellers received 106% of asking.

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Drew & Christine Morgan did not necessarily participate in these sales.