San Mateo County’s median home price jumped 10.6% year over year in July—but larger homes also sold, inventory fell nearly 26%, and buyers paid an average of 106% of asking. We take a closer look at what the numbers really mean.
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As we move into the second quarter of 2026, we’ve been getting a lot of the same question:
The honest answer is—no one can predict it with certainty. But we can look at patterns, buyer behavior, and what we’re seeing on the ground to get a pretty good sense of where things are headed.
There’s a lot going on right now that’s influencing how people feel about making big decisions:
Any one of these on its own doesn’t change the market much.
But when they all show up at once, people tend to take a step back.
In times like this, most buyers don’t panic—they pause.
Instead of rushing in, they take more of a “wait and see” approach:
In other words, the most aggressive buyers start to step back first.
So what does that look like in real life?
You’ll likely see fewer bidding wars.
Instead of 10–15 offers, it may be more like:
At the same time, buyers become more selective.
Homes that are:
…are still going to do well.
Homes with trade-offs—or pricing that feels a little too aggressive—may take longer to sell.
And overall, price growth tends to slow.
Not necessarily decline dramatically—but level off or adjust modestly.
There’s also another dynamic worth mentioning.
In uncertain times, some buyers actually lean into real estate.
They’re looking for:
But even these buyers tend to be more thoughtful.
They’re not the ones overpaying—they’re looking for value.
The Bay Area has always had some built-in support:
That doesn’t make it immune to change—but it does tend to prevent more dramatic swings.
If current trends continue, the most likely scenario is a more balanced, selective market.
The margin for error just gets smaller.
For sellers, this doesn’t eliminate opportunity—it just changes the approach.
The homes that are performing best right now are the ones that:
Where we’re seeing challenges is when homes:
That’s where momentum can get lost.
The housing market isn’t disappearing—it’s becoming more disciplined.
And in markets like this, the difference between an average result and a strong one usually comes down to:
strategy, positioning, and timing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are homes getting fewer offers?
Is the Bay Area housing market slowing down in 2026?
Are home prices expected to drop?
Is now a good time to sell in Belmont?
Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They have assisted buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond award, ranking among the top 50 agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California by RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or emailinfo@morganhomes.com.
For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook and on X.
This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice; it cannot replace advice tailored to your situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional familiar with your scenario.
BROKER OWNER | MANAGER | NOTARY
The Hidden Opportunity: Why Some Belmont Sellers Are Winning Right Now
You may have heard that higher interest rates have “slowed the market.” But here in Belmont, the story on the ground looks very different.
Just last week, a home on Francis Court — where we were writing an offer for our buyers — received 27 offers. That’s not a slowdown. That’s serious demand.
What’s Really Driving the Market?
The biggest factor today isn’t interest rates — it’s low inventory.
Many homeowners are staying put because they have low mortgage rates or aren’t sure where they’d move next. The result? Fewer homes for sale. And when a well-prepared home in a good Belmont location hits the market, buyers don’t have many options — so competition can be intense.
Today’s Buyers Are Serious
Buyers right now are:
When the right home comes along, they act quickly — and often aggressively.
But here’s the key:
Not every home gets multiple offers.
The homes that win typically have:
In today’s market, strategy matters more than ever.
The Hidden Opportunity for Sellers
Because inventory is so limited, prepared sellers currently have:
The Francis Court property is a perfect example of what happens when strong demand meets limited supply.
Should You Wait for Rates to Drop?
Many homeowners ask this question.
The reality is: when rates fall, more buyers will enter the market — but so will more sellers.
That means more competition.
Right now, the environment is unusual:
Strong demand with limited competition.
Belmont Is a Local Market
Home values here depend on the details — street location, lot usability, expansion potential, commute access, and neighborhood feel. Understanding how buyers see these factors often makes the difference between a good result and a great one.
Curious What Your Home Might Do Today?
The headlines may sound uncertain, but locally, well-positioned homes are still performing very well.
If you’re wondering what your home might sell for — or whether this market makes sense for you — we’re always happy to provide a local, no-pressure analysis.
Because in today’s Belmont market, success comes from preparation and strategy — not timing the headlines.
Enjoy the day!
Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They have assisted buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond award, ranking among the top 50 agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California by RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or emailinfo@morganhomes.com.
For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook and on X.
This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice; it cannot replace advice tailored to your situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional familiar with your scenario.
BROKER | MANAGER | NOTARY
