Belmont Week in Review–Week Ending October 25th 2008

The media continues its relentless barrage of horror stories and down at ground zero people continue to go on with their lives buying and selling homes to fit a lifestyle, not a portfolio.

There are currently 56 Active listings for sale in Belmont down from 58 last week. The six new listings are typical for the last big push before the holidays and the seven homes that went into contract demonstrate the desire to nest before the winter.

NEW LISTINGS

Six new listing hit the market this last week and one of them was ours—we’ll dispense with that one first:

2824 Ext 500 sh  2824 Hallmark Drive, 4 Bed 3 Bath, 2430 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,298,900. Admittedly we are biased about this home not only because it’s our own listing but because we are also neighbors. Hallmark can be a busy street during commute hours but this home backs up to 300+/- acres of the Belmont Canyon open space with hiking and biking trails right out its back door. The orientation of the home is to the rear (as with most Belmont Height's homes) and you can’t get a more relaxing and tranquil setting. What truly makes this home unique is the level rear yard AND awesome canyon (and peek-a-boo) Bay Views. LIsted by Drew & Christine Morgan

OPEN SUNDAY 10/26 from 1:30-4:30 stop by and say hi, Christine and I will be hosting the open house. Here's a cool video tour if you want to get an early glimpse…

2835 Alhambra Drive 4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,710 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,348,000.

This is the second home to have been listed in as many weeks. Alhambra is a great seclude dead-end street in the Belmont Canyon. This home has seen its share of turn over as we’ve seen it sell several times. This time though it has been updated and shows very well. There’s no level yard out back but it’s a neat home. OPEN SATURDAY & SUNDAY 10/25-26 1:00-4:00. Listed By Philip Watson, Prudential California Realty

3416 Beresford 4 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,810 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $949,915. Another nice Bay view home and with it, a yard two stories below. OPEN SUNDAY 10/26 1:00-4:30

Listed By Jimmy Chen, Out of Area Office

2949 Monte Cresta 4 Bed 2 Bath 1,670 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $899,000. Too new to review but it’s open Sunday 10/26 from 1:00-4:00 Listed By Katrin Kaukull, Century 21 Alliance

3901 Christian 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,660 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $868,000. This is a home where a thousand pictures isn’t worth one word—bad location. Nice home, but bad location. It’s the end home next to Ralston Ave. and every single homeowner and their cars must drive by this home to get in and out of this enclave. OPEN SUNDAY 10/26 1:30-4:30 Listed By Ron J. Bonhagen Sr., Intero Real Estate Services

3414 Beresford 2 Bed 1 Bath 890 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $649,000. This is a contractor’s special so don’t think you’re getting any real deal here. Be prepared, but if you want a good project it’s OPEN SUNDAY 10/26 from 2:00-4:00. Listed By Rosa De La Rosa, Regency Prime Properties Inc

PENDING SALES

Seven homes went pending last week which is a good sign of overall activity in Belmont’s housing market—more than half were over a million dollars.

SOLD

Monroe â†“ 2037 Monroe 5 Bed 4+ Bath 2436 Sq. Ft. LISTED for $1,199,000 SOLD for $1,167,000 in 68 Days—19 after it was reduced.

This was a very nice home but it was on a smaller lot (4,000 +/-Sq. Ft.). It was remodeled nicely and had Belmont Country Club Canyon views. It was originally listed for $1,279,000 back in August. In September it was lowered to $1,199,000 where it finally received an offer a month after being reduced.

Square footage and/or acreage information contained herein has been received from seller, existing reports, appraisals, public records and/or other sources deemed reliable. However, neither seller nor listing agent has verified this information. If this information is important to buyer in determining whether to buy or the purchase price, buyer should conduct buyer’s own investigation. Information deemed reliable but not guaratneed.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. These homes were not necessarily listed or sold by Drew & Christine Morgan.

Just Listed-2824 Hallmark Drive, Belmont, CA 94002



Drew & Christine Morgan (650) 508-1441




 
Drew & Christine Morgan
"Helping People Make Good Decisions"sm
(650) 508-1441

Just Listed–OPEN SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26th 2008 1:30-4:30
 

Located in the coveted Belmont hills enclave of Belmont Heights
in Hallmark, this well appointed home enjoys large rooms and a well
designed floorplan.

Two of the most highly sought after attributes in a home in Belmont
is having a level yard or a home with spectacular views–this home
has both! The rear of the home boasts a large family room with adjacent
dining area and kitchen which opens to a level rear yard with spectacular
pastoral canyon views.
Call for details and showing dates. (650) 508-1441
 
Features Include
 
Four Bedrooms
Three full baths
Lower bedroom for au pair or live-in guest
Hardwood flooring
Recessed lighting

Kitchen includes:

  • Birdseye maple cabinetry
  • New appliances
  • Recessed lighting
  • Corian counters
  • Eat-at counter
Excellent schools!
Dual paned bow windows
French doors
Approximately 2,450 Sq. Ft.
$1,298,900
(650) 508-1441


Belmont–Week in Review

The big news for the past few weeks is not what’s going on in Belmont but rather the world economies. We’ll leave that analysis to economists and instead show you how the credit crisis is affecting Belmont home buyers and sellers.

In fact the greatest factor affecting home sales is probably not the credit crunch at all, but consumer confidence. We’ve been through enough recessions to note that when consumer confidence is down so are home sales—understandably. But as Warren Buffet said yesterday, he buys when others are fearful and he’s fearful when others are greedy. If one were to apply that philosophy to the real estate market they’d be in great shape right now.

This graph is for the month of September over four years.

The news for Belmont’s housing market is not so grim. There are 58 single family homes for sale, once again up from last week but in perspective, right in –line with historical trends for this time of year.

The number of new listings (3) for sale is down which is good because the number of sales (2) are down too. This ratio is an important factor in gauging the housing market’s health. Currently the month’s supply of homes for sale in Belmont stands at 6.1—double that of just last month.

NEW LISTINGS

Pocket Listing:

What’s a pocket listing? It’s a home that an agent has listed but it’s not on the open market yet.

We have just such a listing which is scheduled to come on the market in time for this Tuesday’s agent tour.

2824Rear 3inch  2824 Hallmark Drive in Belmont—4 Bed 3 Baths 2,430 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,298,000. Many updates–just needs some maintenance. Shows great and has a hard-to-find level rear yard with pastoral canyon views—backs up top 300+ acres of open space and Water Dog Lake.

OPEN SUNDAY OCTOBER 26th 1:30-4:40

Drew & Christine Morgan—Call us for details or a private showing (650) 508-1441.

Pullman 2116 Pullman 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,810 Sq. Ft. home for $1,069,000. This remodeled home should sell fast. There’s no open house listed for it but watch in Sunday’s Open House guide just in case. Listed By Charles Rauch, CR Properties

2030 Arbor-3 Bed 2 Bath 1,780 Sq. Ft. home listed for $879,000. Too new to review but it looks well priced. Check it out on Sunday’s open houses

Sun 

10/19 

1:00-4:00 

Sun 

10/26 

1:00-4:00 

Listed By Mary Duvall, Coldwell Banker-San Carlos

1218 North Road 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,270 Sq. Ft. home for $900,000.

Well, it’s not entirely a new listings but it was listed so long ago that we’ll qualify it as new. Originally listed back in August of 2007 for a whopping $1,250,000, it lasted until January 2008 when it was pulled from the market at $1,050,000. Nice house but a real cliff clinger home and no yard.

Sun 

10/19 

2:00-4:00 

Sun 

10/26 

2:00-4:00 

 Listed By Michael Robles, Coldwell Banker-Burlingame

SALES

PALMER ↑2404 Palmer 3 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,120 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,085,800 SOLD for $1,100,000 in 4 days. One of our Belmont’s Best Deal picks of the week when it was listed.

↓2606 Carlmont Drive-4 Bed 2.5 bath 2,268 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,068,000 SOLD for $1,050,000 in 7 days.

Belmont–Coming Soon!



Drew & Christine Morgan (650) 508-1441




Drew & Christine Morgan
"Helping People Make Good Decisions"sm
(650) 508-1441

COMING SOON TO BELMONT
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Located in the coveted Belmont hills enclave of Belcrest Gardens
in Hallmark, this well appointed home enjoys large rooms and a well
designed floorplan.

Two of the most highly sought after attributes in Belmont is a
home with a level yard or with spectacular views–this home has
both! The rear of the home boasts a large family room with adjacent
dining area and kitchen which opens to a level rear yard with spectacular
pastoral canyon views.
Call for details and showing dates. (650) 508-1441
Features Include
 
Four Bedrooms
Three full baths
Lower bedroom for au pair or live-in guest
Hardwood flooring
Recessed lighting

Kitchen includes:

  • Birdseye maple cabinetry
  • New appliances
  • Recessed lighting
  • Corian counters
  • Eat-at counter
Excellent schools!
Dual paned bow windows
French doors
Approximately 2,450 Sq. Ft.
Price has not yet been determined–call for details
(650) 508-1441


October’s Hunter’s Moon

october-2013-partial-lunar-eclipse_72598_990x742Today marks the occasion of the “Hunter’s Moon. A full moon which occurs each October after September’s Harvest Moon.

This can be found on NASA’s web site. According to folklore, October’s full moon is called the “Hunter’s Moon” or sometimes the “Blood Moon.” It gets its name from hunters who tracked and killed their prey by autumn moonlight, stockpiling food for the winter ahead. You can picture them: silent figures padding through the forest, the moon overhead, pale as a corpse, its cold light betraying the creatures of the wood.

So how many moons do we really have? Twelve to be exact:

  • January – Wolf Moon 
  • February – Snow Moon 
  • March – Worm Moon 
  • April – Pink Moon 
  • May – Flower Moon 
  • June – Strawberry Moon 
  • July – Buck Moon 
  • August – Sturgeon Moon 
  • September – Harvest Moon 
  • October – Hunter’s Moon 
  • November – Beaver Moon 
  • December – Cold Moon

Ever wonder why the moon appears so large at the horizon and so small up in the sky? This phenomenon referred to the “Moon Illusion” is best explained by scientists but it has everything to do with your brain’s perception of relative size as it compares the moon to objects on the horizon. Try taking a picture of the same moon and you’ll be sorely disappointed that your camera doesn’t see things quite the way you do.

Enjoy the show this week and as the moon rises near sunset and appears to fill the sky.

Belmont–September Housing Statistics

Belmont’s housing sales for the month of September are in the books and the less than stellar report is probably not surprising given what you instinctively know.

Consumer confidence numbers are indicative of consumer sentiment and consumer confidence, although slightly higher than in August, is at only 59.8—indexed to 1985 when it was at 100. That’s not the whole story though as we predict it will drop once the consumer uncertainty over the seven billion dollar bailout are reflected in October’s numbers.

This graph illustrates the correlation between the number of available homes for sale and the number of sales.

Although inventory levels remain in check, the number of sales is disturbingly low for the month of September. As you can see by the interactive graph, September sales weren’t even this low in the month following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. The difference of course is that inventory levels are much lower than in 2001 and that alone should help keep values from deteriorating at an unhealthy pace.

The median price has held its’ own but one must remember that the median price statistic is the median price of homes which sold, not necessarily what the median price is for Belmont homes. That said the median price rose by $3,000 over the month of August while the median size home sold was considerably smaller—210 feet to be exact. At $527 per square foot that is a significant sign that values are holding relatively firm considering the tumultuous environment and we give this market indicator a positive denotation on that very note.

Here’s how the numbers stack up as compared to AugusSpet_changes_from_pmt:

(click for a larger view)

 

This is Belmont’s Full report for September 2008:

(click for a larger view)

Belmontsept_2008_2

Continue reading

Belmont Housing Activity–Week Ending September 27, 2008

Despite the radical financial news in the headlines people continue to buy homes and move forward with their lives.

Belmont’s inventory rose from a three week pattern of 47 listings to 49. New listings accounted for six of those and two more were –re-listed bringing this last week’s total of “new listings” to eight.

Pending sales also rose and last week as six homes went into contract. Just three homes sold but in all likelihood that will increase next week as we approach the end of the month.

NEW LISTINGS

Anita_not_ours_2 19 Anita Court—4 Bed 3.5 Bath 1,965 Sq. Ft. home for $1,388,888

Not really on a court at all, in fact the address should have read 19 Anita Avenue—opps.

Nicely appointed new construction on two levels. The level rear yard is accessed through the master bedroom, not our favorite design. Views are of the lower San Mateo section of 42nd street but end with San Francisco in the distant background. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 1:30-4:30–Listed By Patricia Gill, Cashin Company

1314 Paloma—3 Bed 3 Bath 2,390 Sq. Ft. home for $ 995,000

Sound too good to be true? Price per square foot this sounds like a deal, and it is if you don’t mind living in a home clinging to a cliff. Nice bay views but don’t expect a large yard for running around. BTW—this last sold in 2005 for $945,000. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 1:30-4:30–Listed By Michael Johnston, Alain Pinel Realtors

Newcastle_2 100 Newcastle—4 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,760 Sq. Ft. home for $975,000.

This home is located out in Redwood Shores though actually part of Belmont. Nice commute to Oracle! Not Open until Sunday, October 5th from 1:00-4:00–Listed By Arnaldo Salazar, Worldnet Realty

1980 Alden—3 Bedroom 1 Bath 1,126 Sq. Ft. home for $799,000

Alden is a nice but busy street and these homes are up a slight hill. The home’s nice inside but still needs some updating. It’s got a terraced rear yard that is mostly level. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 2:00-4:30–Listed By Debbie Wilhelm, Coldwell Banker

2908 Belmont Woods Way—3 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,850 Sq. Ft. ATTACHED home for $ 1,100,000

These high-end townhomes are located at the entrance to Belcrest Gardens (Hallmark) area in Belmont. They sport dramatic high ceilings and they’re located in their own little enclave. Nice for those who want space and low maintenance yards—because you really don’t have one. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 2:00-4:00–Listed By Cheryl Price, Alain Pinel Realtors

Fifth_2 1540 Fifth Ave—3 Bed 2 Bath 1,350 Sq. Ft. home for $910,000. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 1:30-4:30. Too new to review. Listed By Frank E Nichols, Century 21 Alliance

Located in the lower Belmont hills on the border of San Carlos, this area is zoned mixed use with high density multi-unit housing so the area is a blessing of single family homes and well kept apartments. As you can see it has room for a boat, but not for cars and a boat. Too new for tour but it’s open Sunday, 9/28 from 2:00-4:30

SORRY—No BEST DEALS this WEEK. We just couldn’t find any to wrap our head around.

RE-LISTS

2776 Belmont Canyon Road—5 Bed 4+ Bath 3,000 Sq. Ft. home for $1,488,000

Still overpriced in our estimation, this cliffhanger home has nice views of San Francisco and a level yard are, though it’s three stories down to get to it. Kind of a choppy floor plan in our opinion but very stately. Listed By Debbie Wilhelm, Coldwell Banker

3715 Encline Way—4 Bed-3 Bath 1,965 Sq. Ft. home for $995,000

We didn’t care for this home though it did get a contract on it that apparently fell through. It’s back on the market at the same price. Listed By Barney Diamos, Diamosbusiness Group

PENDING SALES

Our Belmont’s BEST DEAL from two weeks ago went into contract on Tahoe and last week’s Best Deal on Palmer sold in just four says.

Also going into contract were 317 Malcolm, 15 Kittie Lane that’s been on the market FOREVER (268 days) and 2319 Coronet, once again.

SALES (Closed Escrow)

↓1826 Oak Knoll —4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,460 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $999,888 SOLD for $950,000. This home was on the market since June when it was listed for $1,159,000.

↑905 Avon Street—4 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,820 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $999,000 SOLD for $1,050,000 in 24 days. Defying all logic, this home sold after more than three weeks for $51,000 over asking and the listing never even had a picture in the MLS. Wonder what it could have sold for?

Median Price Methodology–What’s Your Home Really Worth?

Unasked3 As a frequently unasked question and part of our real estate REVEALED series, we delve into how the median price is determined and reported for your city.

Listen right here or subscribe to our Podcast by clicking on the upper left RSS icon.

This graph illustrates the appreciation for homes which sold in the second quarter of 2008 and had previously sold within the last ten years.

Clearly the best way of determining what appreciation is for a particular home is to watch the home trade hands in an arm’s length transaction several times over many years without any major improvements (other than maintenance).

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Methodology comes closest to achieving this on a macro level. However there are inherent limitations in the methodology they employ. We’re not here to find fault with their method of data collection and interpretation—clearly it is as good as it gets on a macro-level—but for interpreting micro or niche markets it uses too broad a brush to paint an accurate picture of a particular area’s housing landscape. Here’s why:

·         It lumps many micro and niche markets into one large metropolitan area and cannot effectively differentiate smaller market areas since it relies on huge volumes of data in order to arrive at meaningful results.

·         It uses an algorithm to exclude all old sale pairs to support their assumption that older home sale pairs must have been remodeled. This has the unwanted effect of throwing the baby out with the bathwater, and discards very valuable information on repeat sales pairs which have not been updated over long periods of time.

We have overcome these limitations by being able to use the "sales pair" methodology and exclude homes that have been remodeled based on our personal experience in seeing virtually every home that has sold. In fact some of the home sales used are homes we’ve personally sold in the course of our 17 years in business.

However, due to the relatively small market sample our data will be more vulnerable to isolated sale anomalies but to a certain degree that is mitigated in that 100% of our data is usable—and local.

  • We can also go back to homes that sold recently which have not traded hands in the last 30 years and still included them in our study so long as we can verify they have not been remodeled.
  • We can also distill this information down by neighborhood.

Essentially we have watched the same sales pairs sell and can analyze the empirical and statistical data to offer a sound assessment of a particular areas value trends.

Here are some interesting facts–for 2nd quarter 2008 sales:

·         58 homes sold during this period

·         22 had not sold within past nine years and were excluded

·         11 were remodeled and excluded

·         25 were not remodeled and were used for our study

·         Only homes sold that were purchased after 2005 have sold for less than what they were purchased for.

Of those seven sales after 2005:

                1 was a foreclosure

                1 was a short sale

                1 was an REO (bank owned sale)

                2 non distressed properties showed an average of 11% appreciation

                1 non distressed property lost 15%

                1 non distressed property lost 20%

               

The homes that were selected had sold in prior years and had no extensive remodeling performed. Each sale pair represents the best analysis presently available for tracking the same home exchanging hands over time. Several recent distressed sales have perhaps skewed the numbers in that they were foreclosures selling at what was owed, not what it might have been worth. Nevertheless the data is for the most part reliable and illustrates that only people who overpaid for homes from 2005-2007 may now own a home worth less than what they paid for it as a result of the downturn.

Download Median.mp3

Belmont Housing Activity–Week Ending September 20th 2008

Belmont’s inventory of homes for sale ended exactly where it started off for the third week in row at 47 homes for sale. There were four news listings, six homes went pending and four closed escrow while two homes dropped off the inventory rolls as sellers gave up on trying to sell their homes.

NEW LISTINGS

Cipriani 2305 Cipriani 3 Bed 2 Baths 1,840 Sq Ft home for $ 1,050,000.

If you’re looking for a move-in condition home here’s one for the top of your list. Ok Cipriani is a busy street but the home sits back far enough to afford privacy and offers a nice level, large rear yard that looks like a park.

1136 North Court 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,290 Sq Ft. Home for $765,432

Too new to review but it looks like a nice home. FYI it sold in 2005 for $719,000—more on this one next week. In case you didn’t notice the exhaustive research that went into calculating the exact listing price—just count backwards…

E 2404 Palmer 3 Bed 2.5 bath 2,120 Sq Ft. home for $1,085,800Palmer

Also too new to review is this awesome looking home on Palmer—an excellent street in the Belmont hills.

It might just be too good to be true at that price. If you want a level yard, quiet street and newer home in Belmont this is a must see. This will in all likelihood be our BELMONT’S BEST DEAL for the week.

2122 Forest 3 Bed 2 bath 2,198 Sq Ft. home for $ 975,000.

Who know what is up with this home. There’s no agent tour, no open houses listed, it’s tenant occupied and there’s no pictures, virtual tour or anything. I guess they think this home will sell itself.

BOM (or back on market)

1224 North Road 2 bed 1 bath 980 Sq. Ft. home for $599,000

This home had a pending sale that fell through. No yard at all but nice Bay views. Better than a condo and all remodeled inside.

803 Alameda de las Pulgas 2 homes on one lot.

This one’s strictly for an investor but there’s some opportunity here.

Remeber–if you are interested in seeing any of these homes we can represent you under our Buyer Rebate program where you receive a 20% rebate!

SOLD HOMES (CLOSED SALES)

↓3442 E Laurel Creek Listed for $ 768,500 SOLD for $765,000 in 9 days. This was one of our BEST DEALS when it hit the market.

↓11 Kimmie Court 4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,690 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,125,000 SOLD for $1,035,000

Completely original condition.

↓2117 Cipriani 4 Bed 4+ Bath 2,400 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,358,000 SOLD for $1,295,000 in 22 days. Completely remodeled home. BTW-this sale makes the home at 2037 Monroe that was lowered to $1,199,000 a good deal now! It’s a 5 bed 4+ bath remodeled 2,650 Sq. Ft. home!

↓1811 Valdez 3 Bed 2 bath 1,220 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $799,000 SOLD for $795,000. ALL original—never hit the market.