Belmont–September Housing Statistics

Belmont’s housing sales for the month of September are in the books and the less than stellar report is probably not surprising given what you instinctively know.

Consumer confidence numbers are indicative of consumer sentiment and consumer confidence, although slightly higher than in August, is at only 59.8—indexed to 1985 when it was at 100. That’s not the whole story though as we predict it will drop once the consumer uncertainty over the seven billion dollar bailout are reflected in October’s numbers.

This graph illustrates the correlation between the number of available homes for sale and the number of sales.

Although inventory levels remain in check, the number of sales is disturbingly low for the month of September. As you can see by the interactive graph, September sales weren’t even this low in the month following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. The difference of course is that inventory levels are much lower than in 2001 and that alone should help keep values from deteriorating at an unhealthy pace.

The median price has held its’ own but one must remember that the median price statistic is the median price of homes which sold, not necessarily what the median price is for Belmont homes. That said the median price rose by $3,000 over the month of August while the median size home sold was considerably smaller—210 feet to be exact. At $527 per square foot that is a significant sign that values are holding relatively firm considering the tumultuous environment and we give this market indicator a positive denotation on that very note.

Here’s how the numbers stack up as compared to AugusSpet_changes_from_pmt:

(click for a larger view)

 

This is Belmont’s Full report for September 2008:

(click for a larger view)

Belmontsept_2008_2

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Belmont Housing Activity–Week Ending September 27, 2008

Despite the radical financial news in the headlines people continue to buy homes and move forward with their lives.

Belmont’s inventory rose from a three week pattern of 47 listings to 49. New listings accounted for six of those and two more were –re-listed bringing this last week’s total of “new listings” to eight.

Pending sales also rose and last week as six homes went into contract. Just three homes sold but in all likelihood that will increase next week as we approach the end of the month.

NEW LISTINGS

Anita_not_ours_2 19 Anita Court—4 Bed 3.5 Bath 1,965 Sq. Ft. home for $1,388,888

Not really on a court at all, in fact the address should have read 19 Anita Avenue—opps.

Nicely appointed new construction on two levels. The level rear yard is accessed through the master bedroom, not our favorite design. Views are of the lower San Mateo section of 42nd street but end with San Francisco in the distant background. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 1:30-4:30–Listed By Patricia Gill, Cashin Company

1314 Paloma—3 Bed 3 Bath 2,390 Sq. Ft. home for $ 995,000

Sound too good to be true? Price per square foot this sounds like a deal, and it is if you don’t mind living in a home clinging to a cliff. Nice bay views but don’t expect a large yard for running around. BTW—this last sold in 2005 for $945,000. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 1:30-4:30–Listed By Michael Johnston, Alain Pinel Realtors

Newcastle_2 100 Newcastle—4 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,760 Sq. Ft. home for $975,000.

This home is located out in Redwood Shores though actually part of Belmont. Nice commute to Oracle! Not Open until Sunday, October 5th from 1:00-4:00–Listed By Arnaldo Salazar, Worldnet Realty

1980 Alden—3 Bedroom 1 Bath 1,126 Sq. Ft. home for $799,000

Alden is a nice but busy street and these homes are up a slight hill. The home’s nice inside but still needs some updating. It’s got a terraced rear yard that is mostly level. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 2:00-4:30–Listed By Debbie Wilhelm, Coldwell Banker

2908 Belmont Woods Way—3 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,850 Sq. Ft. ATTACHED home for $ 1,100,000

These high-end townhomes are located at the entrance to Belcrest Gardens (Hallmark) area in Belmont. They sport dramatic high ceilings and they’re located in their own little enclave. Nice for those who want space and low maintenance yards—because you really don’t have one. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 2:00-4:00–Listed By Cheryl Price, Alain Pinel Realtors

Fifth_2 1540 Fifth Ave—3 Bed 2 Bath 1,350 Sq. Ft. home for $910,000. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 1:30-4:30. Too new to review. Listed By Frank E Nichols, Century 21 Alliance

Located in the lower Belmont hills on the border of San Carlos, this area is zoned mixed use with high density multi-unit housing so the area is a blessing of single family homes and well kept apartments. As you can see it has room for a boat, but not for cars and a boat. Too new for tour but it’s open Sunday, 9/28 from 2:00-4:30

SORRY—No BEST DEALS this WEEK. We just couldn’t find any to wrap our head around.

RE-LISTS

2776 Belmont Canyon Road—5 Bed 4+ Bath 3,000 Sq. Ft. home for $1,488,000

Still overpriced in our estimation, this cliffhanger home has nice views of San Francisco and a level yard are, though it’s three stories down to get to it. Kind of a choppy floor plan in our opinion but very stately. Listed By Debbie Wilhelm, Coldwell Banker

3715 Encline Way—4 Bed-3 Bath 1,965 Sq. Ft. home for $995,000

We didn’t care for this home though it did get a contract on it that apparently fell through. It’s back on the market at the same price. Listed By Barney Diamos, Diamosbusiness Group

PENDING SALES

Our Belmont’s BEST DEAL from two weeks ago went into contract on Tahoe and last week’s Best Deal on Palmer sold in just four says.

Also going into contract were 317 Malcolm, 15 Kittie Lane that’s been on the market FOREVER (268 days) and 2319 Coronet, once again.

SALES (Closed Escrow)

↓1826 Oak Knoll —4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,460 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $999,888 SOLD for $950,000. This home was on the market since June when it was listed for $1,159,000.

↑905 Avon Street—4 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,820 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $999,000 SOLD for $1,050,000 in 24 days. Defying all logic, this home sold after more than three weeks for $51,000 over asking and the listing never even had a picture in the MLS. Wonder what it could have sold for?

Median Price Methodology–What’s Your Home Really Worth?

Unasked3 As a frequently unasked question and part of our real estate REVEALED series, we delve into how the median price is determined and reported for your city.

Listen right here or subscribe to our Podcast by clicking on the upper left RSS icon.

This graph illustrates the appreciation for homes which sold in the second quarter of 2008 and had previously sold within the last ten years.

Clearly the best way of determining what appreciation is for a particular home is to watch the home trade hands in an arm’s length transaction several times over many years without any major improvements (other than maintenance).

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Methodology comes closest to achieving this on a macro level. However there are inherent limitations in the methodology they employ. We’re not here to find fault with their method of data collection and interpretation—clearly it is as good as it gets on a macro-level—but for interpreting micro or niche markets it uses too broad a brush to paint an accurate picture of a particular area’s housing landscape. Here’s why:

·         It lumps many micro and niche markets into one large metropolitan area and cannot effectively differentiate smaller market areas since it relies on huge volumes of data in order to arrive at meaningful results.

·         It uses an algorithm to exclude all old sale pairs to support their assumption that older home sale pairs must have been remodeled. This has the unwanted effect of throwing the baby out with the bathwater, and discards very valuable information on repeat sales pairs which have not been updated over long periods of time.

We have overcome these limitations by being able to use the "sales pair" methodology and exclude homes that have been remodeled based on our personal experience in seeing virtually every home that has sold. In fact some of the home sales used are homes we’ve personally sold in the course of our 17 years in business.

However, due to the relatively small market sample our data will be more vulnerable to isolated sale anomalies but to a certain degree that is mitigated in that 100% of our data is usable—and local.

  • We can also go back to homes that sold recently which have not traded hands in the last 30 years and still included them in our study so long as we can verify they have not been remodeled.
  • We can also distill this information down by neighborhood.

Essentially we have watched the same sales pairs sell and can analyze the empirical and statistical data to offer a sound assessment of a particular areas value trends.

Here are some interesting facts–for 2nd quarter 2008 sales:

·         58 homes sold during this period

·         22 had not sold within past nine years and were excluded

·         11 were remodeled and excluded

·         25 were not remodeled and were used for our study

·         Only homes sold that were purchased after 2005 have sold for less than what they were purchased for.

Of those seven sales after 2005:

                1 was a foreclosure

                1 was a short sale

                1 was an REO (bank owned sale)

                2 non distressed properties showed an average of 11% appreciation

                1 non distressed property lost 15%

                1 non distressed property lost 20%

               

The homes that were selected had sold in prior years and had no extensive remodeling performed. Each sale pair represents the best analysis presently available for tracking the same home exchanging hands over time. Several recent distressed sales have perhaps skewed the numbers in that they were foreclosures selling at what was owed, not what it might have been worth. Nevertheless the data is for the most part reliable and illustrates that only people who overpaid for homes from 2005-2007 may now own a home worth less than what they paid for it as a result of the downturn.

Download Median.mp3

Belmont Housing Activity–Week Ending September 20th 2008

Belmont’s inventory of homes for sale ended exactly where it started off for the third week in row at 47 homes for sale. There were four news listings, six homes went pending and four closed escrow while two homes dropped off the inventory rolls as sellers gave up on trying to sell their homes.

NEW LISTINGS

Cipriani 2305 Cipriani 3 Bed 2 Baths 1,840 Sq Ft home for $ 1,050,000.

If you’re looking for a move-in condition home here’s one for the top of your list. Ok Cipriani is a busy street but the home sits back far enough to afford privacy and offers a nice level, large rear yard that looks like a park.

1136 North Court 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,290 Sq Ft. Home for $765,432

Too new to review but it looks like a nice home. FYI it sold in 2005 for $719,000—more on this one next week. In case you didn’t notice the exhaustive research that went into calculating the exact listing price—just count backwards…

E 2404 Palmer 3 Bed 2.5 bath 2,120 Sq Ft. home for $1,085,800Palmer

Also too new to review is this awesome looking home on Palmer—an excellent street in the Belmont hills.

It might just be too good to be true at that price. If you want a level yard, quiet street and newer home in Belmont this is a must see. This will in all likelihood be our BELMONT’S BEST DEAL for the week.

2122 Forest 3 Bed 2 bath 2,198 Sq Ft. home for $ 975,000.

Who know what is up with this home. There’s no agent tour, no open houses listed, it’s tenant occupied and there’s no pictures, virtual tour or anything. I guess they think this home will sell itself.

BOM (or back on market)

1224 North Road 2 bed 1 bath 980 Sq. Ft. home for $599,000

This home had a pending sale that fell through. No yard at all but nice Bay views. Better than a condo and all remodeled inside.

803 Alameda de las Pulgas 2 homes on one lot.

This one’s strictly for an investor but there’s some opportunity here.

Remeber–if you are interested in seeing any of these homes we can represent you under our Buyer Rebate program where you receive a 20% rebate!

SOLD HOMES (CLOSED SALES)

↓3442 E Laurel Creek Listed for $ 768,500 SOLD for $765,000 in 9 days. This was one of our BEST DEALS when it hit the market.

↓11 Kimmie Court 4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,690 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,125,000 SOLD for $1,035,000

Completely original condition.

↓2117 Cipriani 4 Bed 4+ Bath 2,400 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,358,000 SOLD for $1,295,000 in 22 days. Completely remodeled home. BTW-this sale makes the home at 2037 Monroe that was lowered to $1,199,000 a good deal now! It’s a 5 bed 4+ bath remodeled 2,650 Sq. Ft. home!

↓1811 Valdez 3 Bed 2 bath 1,220 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $799,000 SOLD for $795,000. ALL original—never hit the market.

Twin Pine Park Picnic–September 21st 2008

Belmont’s best weather is upon us in the month of September and this event should be a fun day for the whole family.

Belmont Picnic in The Park

Sunday, September 21st 2008

11AM – 3PM

Twin Pines Park MeadowDsc_3897hallmark_2007

Celebrate National Neighborhood Day! Bring a blanket and a picnic lunch for this day

of bringing families and neighbors together promoting a stronger community.

Come for great fun with children’s games & activities including

• Tug Of War • Disaster Preparedness by Belmont/San Carlos Fire Dept.

• Public Safety by the Belmont Police Dept. • Music and much more!

Sponsored by: Belmont Youth Action Committee,

VOICES (Volunteer Outreach Involvement in Community Events &

Services) & the Belmont Parks & Recreation Department.

For more info: 595-7441

August 2008 Housing in Review–San Mateo County

The big news in August was the Government take-over of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae which has had the desired effect of bolstering mortgage backed securities and lowering interest rates. What it ends up costing us all is yet to be determined but suffice to say it’ll probably be worse than if we suffered through a protracted catastrophic collapse of the United States’ financial markets.

Listen here to the audio version.

Looking at San Mateo County’s housing activity for August you get a glimpse at the impact the housing downturn has had and where it may be headed.

This graph shows the correlation between the number of homes for sale and the median price:

  • Median Price is down a statistically insignificant amount–$5K from July to $795,000. Down 16.3% from August 2007
  • Belmont and San Carlos down around 4% year over year
  • Menlo Park posts a ½ percent increase in the median price.
  • Closed sales down from July’s 428 to 376 in August–last August there were 366 sales
  • Inventory declines again–third month in a row from 1886 in July to 1773 in August. Up 14% over August 2007 at 15544
  • Month’s supply of home rises only slightly to 4.7 from 4.4

Download August.mp3

The Streets Around Us-Sharon Road

EXCERPTED FROM OUR MORGAN REPORT NEWSLETTER:

In our last newsletter issue we mentioned how some of Belmont’s streets got their names and we were coxed to include some more in this edition. We also included a teaser about Belmont’s first and only golf course so we’ll dispense with that first. Unfortunately for golf fans, the course is not some well kept secret—in fact it has been gone for years.

Around 1925 the team of Lyon, Monroe and Miller had a grand scheme to create an 18 hole golf course adjacent a tony club house complete with swimming yank, tennis and handball courts and a children;s wading pool that would be the envy of the Peninsula.

The clubhouse would be called Belle Monte, and cost $65,000 to complete. An innovative tactic was employed to attract would-be buyers and included free bus rides from San Francisco where prospective buyers were plied with beer and induced to buy a lot. Membership for the club cost $100 but was included with every home sale on the very streets that bore their names.

Around 1929 the Belle Monti project fell on financial hard times and an attempt to salvage the operation was launched by opening the club to the public. But in 1929 the stock market crash forced members to either drop out or move away and the corporation went bankrupt. The “Hillcrest” golf course was eventually subdivided into lots for the WWII returning veterans and today we find only remnants of a bye-gone era with street names such as Fairway and a few stately homes (now on Belmont’s historic registry) which lay on what was once the perimeter of the golf course.

On the topic of streets, did you know Senator William Sharon was a U.S. Senator from Nevada, who has a small street, Sharon Road, named after himself in Belmont? Find out why Belmont had a lake named after him too in our next issue or visit our web site at local Belmont blog at BeautifulMountinBlog.org and find out what happened to the old club house before it became what is now the Congregational Church of Belmont.

Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA where the own an operate MORGANHOMES, Inc.. They have been assisting buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond award and ranked among the top 50 agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California by RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or email info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook and on Twitter.

This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice, and it cannot replace advice tailored to your specific situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional who is familiar with your scenario.

BROKER | MANAGER | NOTARY

Making Your Home “Market Ready” For Sale

You’ve no doubt heard the term “staging” a home but there’s a lot more to getting your home ready for sale than just bringing in plants and re-arranging furniture.

The terms “staging” typically implies a professional designer has been retained to make a house look like a model home, yet there’s a lot more that goes in to staging a home. Often times, a home will need a complete facelift, as is often the case with trustee sales. Vacant homes always show better professionally staged, and even homes with modern amenities can use some detailing.

We break down staging into two categories. 1) Vacant homes for whole house staging and 2) Occupied homes for staging augmentation. Professional designers are akin to artists and often prefer a vacant home to an occupied one since they are beginning with a blank canvas, or palate if you will.

But getting a home ready for the final touches of furniture, plants and pictures often requires weeks of renovation. We coordinate with our design consultant to first identify our market segment–the buyer who will likely purchase the home. Then we take instructions as to what color scheme to employ and begin the process of renovation or upgrades. Some of the typical enhancements include:

·         Fresh Paint

·         Refinished hardwood flooring

·         New carpeting

·         New bathroom or kitchen tile, granite or other contemporary materials

·         Kitchen cabinet re-facing or replacement

·         Bathroom fixture replacement

·         Hall and entry lighting enhancement

·         Landscaping and fresh lawns

There’s no need to be anxious about the renovation process. As your “project manager”, we coordinate all enhancements with our professional team of property enhancement experts; from tile people to painters, handyman, hardwood floor experts and carpet installers.

The video you are about to see highlights several homes we’ve staged for sale and shows before and after images. If ever the saying “A picture is worth a thousand words” rings true it’s in this short video, enjoy.

 

Belmont Housing Review–August 2008

August, 2008

The data for the summer months suggests Belmont’s housing sector may be near or at the bottom for any market corrections though the picture outside the mid-peninsula remains uncertain. Belmont is a micro-market and we take this position not because all of the data points to positive market indicators, but rather the data points are all in flux. Arrow_ride_2

Taken as a whole, the sumer wasn’t bad to Belmont sellers at all. But like we’ve said before, it’s extremely hard to telll how bad a storm will be when you are in the middle of one; but all storms do pass and we’re getting a glimpse of daylight in our numbers. Whichever is the case– whether we are near the bottom or passed it–we’re all along for the ride, for better or for worse.

Instability in these critical numbers such as the amount a seller receives of their asking price, the median price compared to the size homes actually sold month-over-month is indicative of a market in change. In other words there is no real direction in which all the numbers point—whether it’s a buyer or seller’s market.

Belmont_aug_2008 ←Click on the spreadsheet for a larger size.

↓The number of sales in August fell to only 17 after posting a year high of 25 in July (there were 22 last year at this time). Though sales were down 32%, there were also 22% fewer homes to sell.

↑The median price however rose to $947,000 from $890,000 in July. In August last year the median price was $988,500. See our post on the median price correlation and the size of homes selling to put these wild fluctuations in perspective.

↓The time it took to sell a home went from 14 days in July to 41 in August. That’s a strong indicator that the slow summer months liquidated some old inventory; remember most of July’s sales were consummated in May and June.

↓The amount the seller received of their asking price dropped a whopping 7% from 98.37% in July to 91% in August and dropped 11% over last year when it stood at 102%. This statistic is understandable when homes are selling in 41 days instead of 14 as they did last month. Homes which are overpriced and languish on the market tend to sell way under what they should, but we’ll save that for our next post. Still, you can’t help but compare this to last year’s performance and give it a big red arrow.

This fall we expect sales will pick up a bit from August but still remain under last year’s numbers. This winter could be relatively quiet but we expect next spring to determine the fate of the local market into 2009.

Data extracted from the Multiple Listing Serice for San Mateo County.

The information contained in this postis educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.