Bay Area Housing Reports Show Some Median Price Stability

Just to bring you up to speed on the Bay Area housing market, we’re bringing to your attention a neat little gadget that allows you to see where values are relative to a prior point in time.

The chart we’ve included is based upon data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s web site for the San Francisco MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area), but you can plug in the area where you live and even compare cities.

You’ve no doubt heard of the Case-Shiller report that uses repeat sales pairs to track the median home value more accurately. Essentially they track the same house selling over a period of years. Their methodology can be read here.

Well the U.S. government also tracks repeat home sales pairs to help Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae follow the markets across the country. On their web page they have this really neat calculator where you can input what you paid for a home and it will calculate what the home should be worth today based upon the median trend.

Note for the San Francisco MSA which incorporates San Francisco down to Redwood City we’re beginning to see a leveling off of the free fall that has befell the Bay Area since June of 2006.

We expect seasonal buying and selling trends to continue to vary home prices on a monthly basis but the overall median home price trend will no doubt be relatively flat for several more years to come. Jobs will drive the housing prices in the future, and we’re still running in double digit (11%) unemployment rates in the Bay Area.

Sellers—if you are going to try and wait for prices to dramatically rise you should be prepared to sit in your home for quite a few more years. In others words, if you want to move on in life, now’s as good a time as you’ll see for awhile.

Buyers—since values will probably be flat there’s no reason to rush out and buy a home if you are worrying about missing the bottom, but remember, if interest rates rise your monthly payment will go up dramatically.

Now for the inevitable disclaimer: The information contained in this newsletter is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Belmont Home Sales – April 2010

Top of FormFirst we'd like to thank the many readers who have signed up on our web page for email newsletters which cut down dramatically on our costs and has helped us tread lighter on the environment.

There are many positive indicators in Belmont’s housing market from just a year ago. This data is from the MLS from April 2010, when the government tax rebate was still being offered. That said, only two of the 14 sales in April could have potentially qualified for the rebate since it was capped at a sale price of $800,000.

Below, we’ve added a new feature–a short summary of the homes which sold. We think this may help you gleam more information than just the address.

April 2010 Stats for Belmont 

(click on the window for a full size chart)

Wrap-Up Belmont Housing Market Review April 2010

Sales

Sales year over year for the month of April were almost unchanged at 14 for this year as compare to 13 last April.

Median Price

The median price jumped from $810,000 last April to $967,500 (19%) but the size home which sold in the two periods was also exactly 19% larger which effectively wipes out any real gain—but it looks good in the media.

Days on the Market

The time it took to sell a home dropped from 64 last year to only 44 this year.

Percent Received

Of course when homes sell faster that usually means the market is a bit stronger and we’d expect to see that this April 4 homes sold over asking, 1 at asking and 8 under asking as opposed to last year when none sold over, 4 sold right at asking and 9 sold for less—on average receiving 96.3% of their asking price last year compared to 99% this year.

Summary

It will be interesting to see what impact the end of the tax credit may have on real estate. We’ve already pointed out that it really shouldn’t impact Belmont that much however, if the media gets wind of sales dropping off in the coming months, you may see a pull-back on the part of buyers. The frenzied pace of the last few months caught on like a bad virus leading many to start bidding homes right back up again playing sort of a game of “musical chairs” to see who could get a home before the money ran out. All of which may slow back down—we’ll see…

706 ALAMEDA DE LAS PULGAS, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$445,000 Beds: 2 beds Baths: 3|0 baths

DOM: 41   MLS: 81011114 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

2, 3|0

SqFt:

1,880

Yr Built / Age:

1927 / 83 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

13,410 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$399,900

Sale Price:

$445,000

Sale Date:

03/22/2010

COE Date:

04/23/2010

OffMktDate:

Opportunity abounds with this private, tree-laden property nestled in the Belmont hills. Main house is 2 bed, 2 bath with a lower-level studio. One-of-a-kind secluded retreat, minutes from everything! Home needs some TLC but the value is in the land.

 

1950 ALDEN ST, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$670,000 Beds: 3 beds Baths: 1|0 baths

DOM: 5   MLS: 81010737 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

3, 1|0

SqFt:

1,390

Yr Built / Age:

1947 / 63 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

7,840 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$649,500

Sale Price:

$670,000

Sale Date:

03/13/2010

COE Date:

04/09/2010

OffMktDate:

04/10/2010

Lots of elbow grease and imagination required here. Bonus room down stairs may be non-conforming due to ceiling height. Large rear yard and patio area. Freshly painted inside and out. Great area and schools. Trustee Sale offered in "AS-IS" condition only.

 

1821 HILLMAN AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$800,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 2|1 baths

DOM: 77   MLS: 81003302 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

4, 2|1

SqFt:

2,210

Yr Built / Age:

1974 / 36 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

7,500 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$835,000

Sale Price:

$800,000

Sale Date:

04/10/2010

COE Date:

04/30/2010

OffMktDate:

HUGE PRICE REDUCTION!!Fabulous Bay views from this Belmont Hills home. Newly remodeled kitchen with granite counters & stainless appliances. Breakfast bar in kitchen, family room with fireplace, dining room & formal living room. Great views from master bedroom as well. Lots of storage, closets & storage shed outside. Lots of space for this price! Beautiful area, come see! Not a short sale!!!!

 

1815 HILLMAN AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$825,000 Beds: 5 beds Baths: 4|0 baths

DOM: 95   MLS: 80956110 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

5, 4|0

SqFt:

2,443

Yr Built / Age:

1964 / 46 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

7,500 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$825,000

Sale Price:

$825,000

Sale Date:

03/09/2010

COE Date:

04/16/2010

OffMktDate:

BAY VIEW!! Cozy and roomy tri-level home. Perfect set-up for in-law or au pair. Updated country kitchen and bathrooms. Huge closets. Laundry room. Spaces for theatre, pool table, game room, extended family.

 

Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com

** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed **

1825 OAK KNOLL DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$856,850 Beds: 3 beds Baths: 2|0 baths

DOM: 18   MLS: 81013424 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

3, 2|0

SqFt:

1,477

Yr Built / Age:

1950 / 60 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

8,593 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$879,000

Sale Price:

$856,850

Sale Date:

04/07/2010

COE Date:

04/20/2010

OffMktDate:

04/21/2010

A private and peaceful retreat. Adorable updated home. Master suite has bathroom with lots of natural light and a jetted tub. Living room/dining room combo includes custom stone-faced fireplace. Large back yard is decked for entertaining small and large groups. Access to yard from both kitchen and master bedroom. Vegetable garden. Detached 2-car garage plus additional workshop/storage area.

 

1930 BAYVIEW AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$859,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 2|1 baths

DOM: 51   MLS: 81007777 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

4, 2|1

SqFt:

1,960

Yr Built / Age:

1962 / 48 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

4,000 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$899,000

Sale Price:

$859,000

Sale Date:

04/11/2010

COE Date:

04/21/2010

OffMktDate:

Almost 2000 Sq. Ft. in great Belmont location. Warm & inviting Family Home with lots of room to grow. Hardwood Floors, Remodeled Master Bathroom. Separate Family Room, Living-Dining Room Combo, Large 2 Car Garage. Private Patio with Mature Landscaping. Easy Commute. Great School District & Quiet Location. Flat Level Back Yard. 4th Bedroom can be office/Bonus room. Fresh paint! New Carpet!

 

1935 HILLMAN AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$960,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 2|1 baths

DOM: 19   MLS: 81010508 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

4, 2|1

SqFt:

2,580

Yr Built / Age:

1980 / 30 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

7,242 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$998,000

Sale Price:

$960,000

Sale Date:

03/24/2010

COE Date:

04/27/2010

OffMktDate:

Sophisticated Tri-Level Contemporary in the Belmont Hills. Lovely Canyon views from many rooms. Soaring ceilings. Custom stained glass window. Arched walls. Hardwood floors and a fireplace. Huge master bath with Jacuzzi. Remodeled hallway & 1/2 bath. Wonderful secluded back deck for great entertaining. Move-in condition. This is your own private retreat. Don't miss your chance.

 

1919 ARBOR AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$975,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 3|0 baths

DOM: 8   MLS: 81011925 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

4, 3|0

SqFt:

2,000

Yr Built / Age:

1955 / 55 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

6,750 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$949,950

Sale Price:

$975,000

Sale Date:

03/20/2010

COE Date:

04/21/2010

OffMktDate:

CHARMING 2 STORY HOME W/ WONDERFUL VIEWS OF THE HILLS-HW FLRS-GRANITE KIT NEW 2003-DUAL PANE WINDOWS-NEW ELECTRICAL, NEW DOORS, REMODELED MASTER BATH-FP IN LR-FP IN FR-SECLUDED FRONT SLATE ENTRY-2 LARGE STORAGE RMS DOWNSTAIRS-DECK & FLAT LAWN ARE IN BACKYD-ROOF NEW 2003-MBR ON MAIN FLR-BREAKFAST BAR IN KIT-WALK TO SHOPS,CAFES, SCHOOLS & PARKS

 

Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com

** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed **

2815 MONTE CRESTA DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$1,198,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 2|1 baths

DOM: 2   MLS: 81010747 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

4, 2|1

SqFt:

2,690

Yr Built / Age:

1978 / 32 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

8,500 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$1,198,000

Sale Price:

$1,198,000

Sale Date:

03/10/2010

COE Date:

04/23/2010

OffMktDate:

Exquisite Resort-like Belmont Hills Haskins Estates on cul-de-sac setting. Huge Lot! Just remodeled, New Everything: Bamboo hardwood floors throughout, dual pane Windows, Roof, kitchen cabinets, granite counter-tops, stainless steel appliances, bathrooms, pool plastering and tile, pool equipment, landscaping, concrete driveway. Wood-beamed vaulted ceilings. Wood burning fireplace. A true MUST SEE!

 

2736 WALTHAM CROSS ST, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$1,200,000 Beds: 5 beds Baths: 2|1 baths

DOM: 11   MLS: 81006597 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

5, 2|1

SqFt:

2,550

Yr Built / Age:

1968 / 42 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

10,449 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$1,199,900

Sale Price:

$1,200,000

Sale Date:

02/23/2010

COE Date:

04/13/2010

OffMktDate:

Premier family neighborhood in beautiful Belmont. This spacious 5 bedroom 2-1/2 bath home features a fireplace in the Living Room & Family Room. Formal Dining Room has large window overlooking fantastic backyard with mature landscaping, sprinkler system and attractive deck. Filtered views of hillsides. This home is perfect for childhood dreams and parent comforts. Extra loft storage in garage.

 

640 SOUTH RD, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$1,237,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 3|0 baths

DOM: 243   MLS: 80934224 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

4, 3|0

SqFt:

2,780

Yr Built / Age:

1953 / 57 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

10,800 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$1,299,000

Sale Price:

$1,237,000

Sale Date:

03/16/2010

COE Date:

04/06/2010

OffMktDate:

4BR/3BA HOME WITH PARTIAL BAY VIEWS, MANY UPGRADES, SEPARATE DINING & FAMILY ROOMS, SOLAR HEATED POOL, CABANA, 3 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE.

 

2941 MONTE CRESTA DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$1,250,000 Beds: 5 beds Baths: 3|1 baths

DOM: 22   MLS: 81009245 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

5, 3|1

SqFt:

3,300

Yr Built / Age:

1970 / 40 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

5,000 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$1,298,000

Sale Price:

$1,250,000

Sale Date:

03/21/2010

COE Date:

04/23/2010

OffMktDate:

Exquisite Bay & City View-Home! Newly Remodeled in 2002. Gourmet Kitchen, High Ceilings, Hardwood Flooring, Tile Entry, Fireplaces, Large Master with fireplace, Large decks and more. Easy to show!

 

Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com

** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed **

2016 MEZES AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$1,325,000 Beds: 5 beds Baths: 4|0 baths

DOM: 10   MLS: 81013221 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

5, 4|0

SqFt:

2,393

Yr Built / Age:

1926 / 84 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

8,050 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$1,388,000

Sale Price:

$1,325,000

Sale Date:

03/29/2010

COE Date:

04/12/2010

OffMktDate:

Originally built in 1926,this charming hm is situated on a lrg.lot in a park-like setting.Gorgeous tree-lined character str. Stunning 2nd stry addition added in'08(396 sf).Richly appointed baths,sizeable mst.ste w/jetted tub & lrg.shwr+wlk-in closet.2nd suit up.Kit.w/caesarstone counters,Viking gas stove,dbl.ovens,farmhouse sink,lrg.banquette.Fam.rm w/built-ins & french doors to rear park-likyard.

 

2546 SOMERSET DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$1,350,000 Beds: 4 beds Baths: 3|0 baths

DOM: 10   MLS: 81013225 

Property Overview

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

4, 3|0

SqFt:

2,500

Yr Built / Age:

1976 / 34 years

Assoc Fee:

Lot:

7,480 sq ft

Pricing/Dates

List Price:

$1,379,000

Sale Price:

$1,350,000

Sale Date:

03/29/2010

COE Date:

04/26/2010

OffMktDate:

Beautiful Hallmark home situated on a corner lot with tiled courtyard entry. Main level: formal entry,spacious living room w/fireplace and vaulted ceilings,Seperate dining room, kitchen overlooking the back yard,breakfast nook, Seperate family room with a fireplace, a full bath, three car garage, one converted into an exercise room.Upper level consists of a large master suite & 3 bedroos & 1 bath.

 

Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com

** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed **

Bottom of Form

Case-Shiller study finds Bay Area Home Prices up 11.9% in February 2010

 Case-Shiller released their report on repeat sales pairs for the 20 major MSA’s (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) across the country.Arrow ride San Francisco faired rather well, climbing 11.9% over last year in February. Phoenix lost another 1.64% but faired far better than Tampa Bay, which sank another 6% over last year.

No doubt many of these areas saw sales figures buoyed by the Federal Tax stimulus plan that rebates first time home buyers up to $8,000 and resale buyers up to $6,500. Additionally, the shifting of the majority of sales from lower priced homes to a more even mix has helped raise the median price point substantially.

Limited time $18,000 combined state and federal tax credit for first time buyers!

There’s a lot of misinformation about the federal and California state tax credits which expire soon. This short article from the California Association of Realtors sums up the unique opportunity to qualify for the federal and state tax credit and get up to $18,000 in rebates.

BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

$18,000 IN COMBINED HOMEBUYER TAX CREDITS FOR A LIMITED TIME

Californians have a brief window of opportunity to receive up to $18,000 in combined federal and state homebuyer tax credits.  To take advantage of both tax credits, a first-time homebuyer must enter into a purchase contract for a principal residence before May 1, 2010, and close escrow between May 1, 2010 and June 30, 2010, inclusive.  Buyers who are not first-time homebuyers may use the same timeframes to receive up to $16,500 in combined tax credits if they are long-time residents of their existing homes as permitted under federal law, and they purchase properties that have never been previously occupied as provided under California law.

Under the federal law slated to soon expire, a first-time homebuyer may receive up to $8,000 in tax credits, and a long-time resident may receive up to $6,500, for certain purchase contracts entered into by April 30, 2010 that close escrow by June 30, 2010.  Additionally, under a newly enacted California law, a homebuyer may receive up to $10,000 in tax credits as a first-time homebuyer or buyer of a property that has never been occupied.  The new California law applies to certain purchases that close escrow on or after May 1, 2010 (see Cal. Rev. & Tax Code section 17059.1(a)(4)).  California law generally allows buyers of never-occupied properties to reserve their credits before closing escrow, but buyers seeking to combine the federal and state tax credits will not be able to satisfy the timing requirements for such reservations (see Cal. Rev. & Tax Code section 17059.1(c)(1)(A)).  Other terms and restrictions apply to both tax credits.

For more information, C.A.R. offers a Homebuyer Tax Credit Chart with a side-by-side summary of the federal and California laws.  C.A.R. also offers a legal article entitled Homebuyer Tax Credit Update.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

Belmont Homes Sales Price Report for March 2010

Belmont had an interesting month this March.

The big news—which shouldn’t be news at all—is that the median price of homes in Belmont shot up 24% from $800,000 last month to $994,750 in March. Alas the size home also shot up 43% which more than negates any increase in the real median price of homes.

Belmont Mar 2010 

(Click on the spreadsheet for a full size image) 

That said, other factors are showing indication of a more robust sellers market than in previous months.

Not to be overlooked is the home on Bayview which listed for $688,000 and sold for $914,500—a whopping 133% of the asking price. Of course the home had many multiple offers and many which bid far above the original asking price—apparently grossly underpriced. 

Bayview

That’s only $390/square foot with the average Belmont home selling at $417. If this home had sold at what the agent had listed it fo,r it would have sold for $294/square foot a ridiculously low amount.

  
DOM

The time it took to sell a home was down a little bit form 81 days in February to 76 in March.

SALES

The exact same (ten) number of homes sold in March which was down from 13 a year ago. That’s a bit of a surprise since the market should be getting better. Our take on this is that in January and February of 2009 sales were so low—a combined ten for the two months—that in March of 2009 there were was a slight pent-up demand caused by the slow start to the year, increasing March’s sales figures.

Four homes sold under asking again and on average each took around a $50,000 price reduction. Three of those had to accept an even lower price of on average $40,000 more from where they had already lowered the price.

PERSPECTIVE

Watch for rate hikes to initially spur home sales as buyers scramble like musical chairs to get into a home before the rates start to climb. The Fed has halted its purchasing of mortgage backed notes which means it up to the public appetite for these investments to set the pace and the rates. If rates climb too much too fast, watch for homes sales to drop off and values to continue to dip.

 

 

Buyer Incentive Programs – about to phase out (part 1 of 3)

 Hour glass with dollars With the real estate landscape changing almost daily it’s admittedly hard for Real Estate Agents and Lenders to keep up with all of the new programs and limitations.  
Recently, you may have heard on the news or read in the media about the $8,000 tax credit extension for first-time homebuyers. But are you aware you may easily qualify for it and not even know?

Our guess is probably not. That’s because there hasn’t been a great deal of quality reporting on what the income threshold is to qualify; and even if you knew that, what does that translate to in terms of purchase price?

The terms and conditions are too lengthy to cover in a blog and we’d lose half of our readers if we attempted, so here’s the stuff you need to know to see if you’re in the ballpark:

First, did you know that the income threshold nearly doubled last November? You may have heard that the program was extended, but a few other goodies were also thrown in including adding a $6,500 tax credit for recurring homeowners.

Who is eligible to claim the $8,000 tax credit?
First-time home buyers purchasing any kind of home—new or resale—are eligible for the tax credit. To qualify for the tax credit, a home purchase must occur on or after January 1, 2009 and on or before April 30, 2010. For the purposes of the tax credit, the purchase date is the date when closing occurs and the title to the property transfers to the home owner. However, the law also allows home sales occurring by June 30, 2010 to qualify, provided they are due to a binding sales contract in force on or before April 30, 2010.

What is the definition of a first-time home buyer?
The law defines “first-time home buyer” as a buyer who has not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase. For married taxpayers, the law tests the homeownership history of both the home buyer and his/her spouse.

How is the amount of the tax credit determined?
The tax credit is equal to 10 percent of the home’s purchase price up to a maximum of $8,000.

Are there any income limits for claiming the tax credit?
Yes. For sales occurring after November 6, 2009, the income limit for single taxpayers is $125,000; the limit is $225,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return.

So how much home could I buy at the maximum income levels?

The maximum purchase price is always $800k and a couple cannot make more than $225K per year.

If you’ve been looking to get into the housing market or are interested in a change in your current housing these tax incentives—a credit that does not have to be repaid and comes right off the top of your tax bill—along with historically low interest rates and home values that have dropped to levels seen back in 2000 may be just the incentive to get you to take action sooner rather than later. The government has been artificially keeping interest rates low and that along with the tax credit will soon end.

If you’d like more information were here to help. Call at (650) 508-1441 or e-mail us at infro@morganhomes.com today.

Next Blog Part 2. A look at interest rates and how they are your best friend—for now…

The information contained in this newsletter is educational and intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for tax or legal advice.

Belmont – Market Report for December 2009

It’s official. Belmont’s median home price dropped 9.4% last year from $920,000 in 2009 to $833,827 in 2009.

Belmont Dec 2009

(click on the graph to enlarge)

There’s not much good news in the way of these numbers which would hint that the market is improving anytime soon with the exception of the “months of inventory” (*see below).

There seems to be a pervasive attitude within the real estate community to spin statistics any way possible to portray a happy healthy market but in reality real estate is experiencing some of the most volatile years in our nation’s history. And things are not stabilizing at any appreciable rate; in fact, many indicators point to just the opposite. That doesn’t mean you should no longer consider real estate a viable investment. It just means that you need to go in with eyes wide open. The recent market corrections (and even over corrections as in the case of many areas) has opened up some opportunities which may not be seen again for years.

The government is spending millions of dollars to keep interest rates low and offering tax incentives to spur homeownership. These conditions are temporary and indeed the end of special incentives may mean things get worse before they get significantly better.

Looking at the year-end numbers for Belmont, CA we see several statistics which put in perspective the tumultuous year real estate had in 2009.

The time it takes to sell a home in Belmont increased this year from 39 days in 2008 to 56 in 2009.

The amount a seller received of their asking price dropped from 98% in 2008 to 97% in 2009.

The median sale price dropped 9.4% in 2009.

*Month’s Inventory seems to be one bright spot in a rather dark spreadsheet.

The months of inventory refers to the time it would take to sell the remaining homes listed for sale at the current sales pace. Two major factors in this are how many homes are selling each month and how many new listings are coming on the market. The lower the months inventory the fewer homes there are to choose from and price stability invariably creeps back into the market.

Last December the three month moving average for Belmont stood at 5.47 months and this December that had fallen to only 3.61 months.

There were slightly fewer listings this year (10) and 18 more sales which accounted for this favorable statistic.

Read our next post on the buying opportunity window which is closing fast.

Mid Peninsula Housing Trends–2009

What happened in 2009 and what might be in store for 2010?

THE PAST2010 Key

The median price in San Mateo County ended the year at $678,750 which is a dramatic drop from 2008’s year-end median price of $795,000. It continued to drop precipitously throughout the beginning of 2009, though it appears that January of 2009 was its lowest level when the median price reached $553,750—the median price has not been that low since 2000.

It wasn’t until April of 2009 that the median price reached the $600,000’s and the last four month have seen small but steady increases culminating in December’s median price of $750,000. But don’t read too much into these increases. Much of the median price increase is a result of larger homes selling do to the low interest rates and higher conforming limits.

Belmont and much of the mid-peninsula were less affected by the declines. The median price in Belmont dropped from $920,000 in 2008 to $833,725 in 2009 (9.4%). There are several factors which contributed to mid-peninsula cities faring better in declining markets.

THE BACK STORY

Beginning around 2001, many first time buyers entered the market with very little cash and qualified for adjustable teaser rate loans at an artificially low interest rate. Zero down financing meant that that if prices were to drop, they’d be in a negative equity position, making it impossible to refinance out of their adjustable loan. When the banks allowed people to qualify for a loan based at the artificially low teaser rate, when rates adjusted many could no longer make the minimum payment. Without the ability to refinance into a new loan, they were forced into foreclosure.

There are far fewer entry level homes in many of the mid-peninsula communities (Redwood City excepted). Therefore, these cities were spared the bulk of the foreclosures and resulting price declines. Furthermore, many people in these communities have ample equity from previous home sales and were able to refinance, or sit on the sidelines and avoid a distress sale.

THE FUTURE

We won’t pretend to have a crystal ball, so we’re not going out on a limb to try and predict the future. The real estate landscape has changed dramatically in the last several years and how it will shake out is anyone’s guess. But what we imagine could be a probability is that in 2010 will see much more of the same. We expect the record number of foreclosures which have been temporarily withheld from the market to be released and continue to put downward pressure on prices—especially in areas which have yet to be affected. Interest rates are sure to climb above their historical low levels making the cost of home ownership rise. This could easily offset any momentum which could otherwise spur normal home sales. Investors will continue to snap up good deals on distressed properties causing the number of sales to increase, but the median price to decrease, or stay flat. In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a period of flat home prices for many years before any appreciable increase. People will first have to return to the job market before they will consider buying a home. Frustratingly, home sales have a huge effect on creating jobs so it’s easy to see why the government wants so desperately to have people buy a home (and extended the $8,000 tax credit). Once more people are being hired than fired consumer confidence will begin to slowly return. Folks will invariably reenter the housing market but at a less frenetic pace. Lasting memories of the “Great Recession” will haunt many homebuyers; and with higher interest rates and the days of easy money gone, it will be harder for prices to climb at rates seen in the first decade of the new millennium.

Don’t forget you can always check out the stats for a city near you on our web page.

Belmont Market Report–October 2009

Changes to the Belmont home market seemed to have slowed recently.

Belmont October 2009 

(click the graph for a full sized image) Data retreived from the MLS.


 MEDIAN PRICE

In 2008 the median home price stood at $960,000 in the month of October. This year, it has dropped to $865,000.

Once again the numbers are a bit misleading. The size home which sold last year in October was 150 square feet larger. The adjusted median home price for Belmont this year should be $938,000 which would put the median drop at a paltry 2.2% year over year.

DOM

The sellers in Belmont are still receiving around 99% of their asking price, just that they have to ask a little less this year.

SALES

Sales dropped from September but were almost double what they were last year at this time–reflecting more confidence in the market. Of course this number may be influenced by a mad dash of buyers availing themselves of the $8,000 tax credit.

So far 1.2 million buyers have qualified for the $8,000 tax credit. 40% of those said they would not have considered buying a home without it. 70% said it weighed heavily on their decision to purchase e home. Really? All it takes is an $8,000 credit and people are willing to buy a home?

The graph below shows the sales in Belmont for the month of October 2009. Since homes are sometimes relisted, the total days on market and original list price totals can be skewed. We searched the records and reported the actual data—noted by the green dots in the columns. This helps portray a more accurate picture of the time it takes to sell a home and the price a seller receives. Of the 14 sales in October one sold for asking in ten days. Seven sold for less than asking and were on the market an average of 113 days when they received, on average, ~$14,000 less than their LOWERED asking price. The sellers that appropriately priced their home fared much better, receiving on average $2,000 more than their asking price (we defined pricing a home right when it sells within the first month) and sold on average in only 33.5 says. More money, faster sale, one wold think every seller would try to price their home right.

 

Belmont – June 2009 stats

Belmont June 2009

It’s easy to see the numbers for June are much better for sellers than they were in May. Almost all indicators are up signaling a stronger market for sellers in June as compared to last month (click on the chart to see a full size version).

Looking at the same period over last year a similar pattern arises. Almost every indictor is in the seller’s favor.

More homes sold this June and at a faster rate. The percentage the seller received was a healthy 98% of their asking price. The month’s inventory—the time it would take to sell all of the homes currently listed at the current pace of sales—has dropped to a healthy 3.1 months—far below the national average of over 10 months.

Of course there’s one nagging indicator which isn’t easily seen, and certainly not reported by real estate groups or even the media. Although the median price is up in June 4.5% over May, the size home sold in June was a whopping 17% larger. Over the same period last year, the difference is even more staggering. So even though the median price is essentially the same as it was in June of 2008, the size home you get for you money has increased 25%.

What this all means is buyers are getting better deal this year than last.

Why then is the percent the seller received of their asking price higher than it was last year? Probably because sellers are pricing their homes more realistically; and although they are getting closer to their asking price as a percent, in real dollars they are receiving far less.

Looking at San Mateo County as a whole we see the same positive statistics. More sales, higher median price, fewer days on the market and less inventory. What is not available for the entire county is the median size home sold so we really have no idea if the median values are rising, or simply larger homes are selling. We tend to believe it’s the latter.

May-09 Jun-09 Δ from May Jun-08 Δ from '08
Median $840,000 $878,000 $38,000 $877,000 $1,000
DOM 46 25 21 43 18
Month's Inventory 4 3 1 3 0
Sales 14 21 7 20 1
Inventory 62 62 0 61 1
% Received 98% 98% 0.0% 91% 7.00%
Median Size Home 1,710 2000 290 1600 400
Price per Sq. Ft.  $502.00 $493.00 $9.00 $548.00 $55.00