Belmont’s Beautiful Weather

It was really neat to meet our Belmont neighbors at our open house on Hallmark Drive yesterday–thanks to all who stopped by. We had an amazing turn-out and the weather couldn’t have been more cooperative. Incidentally we did a survey at the open house where we asked our guests if they thought the home was a good value. Overwhelming, but not the least bit surprisingly, potential buyers gave lower scores for value than homeowners in the area–propagating the theory that sellers always view their home as worth more than a potential buyer.

The many nice compliments on our blog and web page were also appreciated. I had no idea so many of you read our blog and it inspires me to keep it up. Feel free to comment on anything you read too because it gives me a sense that there’s a real-time audience out there.

So the story of the day is about the last of the nice weather for awhile. We had an unusually warm October with 70+ degree evenings ‘til midnight. For those of you new to Belmont, September and October are getting to be our best months of the year. I say getting to be because my anecdotal evidence is my memory going back 40 years when I distinctly remember September being rather cool and October downright cold.

This graph looks at what is referred to as “Cooling Degree Days”. Cooling degree-days are used to estimate the amount of heat that must be removed (through air-conditioning) to keep a structure comfortable. Heating and cooling degree-days are based on departures from a base temperature, typically 65ºF (18ºC).

One cooling degree–day is the amount of cooling required to keep a structure at 65ºF when the outside temperature remains one degree above the 65ºF threshold for 24 hours. One cooling degree–day is also the amount of cooling required to keep that structure at 65ºF when the temperature remains 24ºF above that 65º threshold for 1 hour.

So the bottom line is the more cooling degree days the warmer the month. Don’t forget when we have extreme weather storms this winter you can go to our live weather station located in Hallmark for current rain rate, or frost conditions.

 

Belmont–Week in Review

The big news for the past few weeks is not what’s going on in Belmont but rather the world economies. We’ll leave that analysis to economists and instead show you how the credit crisis is affecting Belmont home buyers and sellers.

In fact the greatest factor affecting home sales is probably not the credit crunch at all, but consumer confidence. We’ve been through enough recessions to note that when consumer confidence is down so are home sales—understandably. But as Warren Buffet said yesterday, he buys when others are fearful and he’s fearful when others are greedy. If one were to apply that philosophy to the real estate market they’d be in great shape right now.

This graph is for the month of September over four years.

The news for Belmont’s housing market is not so grim. There are 58 single family homes for sale, once again up from last week but in perspective, right in –line with historical trends for this time of year.

The number of new listings (3) for sale is down which is good because the number of sales (2) are down too. This ratio is an important factor in gauging the housing market’s health. Currently the month’s supply of homes for sale in Belmont stands at 6.1—double that of just last month.

NEW LISTINGS

Pocket Listing:

What’s a pocket listing? It’s a home that an agent has listed but it’s not on the open market yet.

We have just such a listing which is scheduled to come on the market in time for this Tuesday’s agent tour.

2824Rear 3inch  2824 Hallmark Drive in Belmont—4 Bed 3 Baths 2,430 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,298,000. Many updates–just needs some maintenance. Shows great and has a hard-to-find level rear yard with pastoral canyon views—backs up top 300+ acres of open space and Water Dog Lake.

OPEN SUNDAY OCTOBER 26th 1:30-4:40

Drew & Christine Morgan—Call us for details or a private showing (650) 508-1441.

Pullman 2116 Pullman 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,810 Sq. Ft. home for $1,069,000. This remodeled home should sell fast. There’s no open house listed for it but watch in Sunday’s Open House guide just in case. Listed By Charles Rauch, CR Properties

2030 Arbor-3 Bed 2 Bath 1,780 Sq. Ft. home listed for $879,000. Too new to review but it looks well priced. Check it out on Sunday’s open houses

Sun 

10/19 

1:00-4:00 

Sun 

10/26 

1:00-4:00 

Listed By Mary Duvall, Coldwell Banker-San Carlos

1218 North Road 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,270 Sq. Ft. home for $900,000.

Well, it’s not entirely a new listings but it was listed so long ago that we’ll qualify it as new. Originally listed back in August of 2007 for a whopping $1,250,000, it lasted until January 2008 when it was pulled from the market at $1,050,000. Nice house but a real cliff clinger home and no yard.

Sun 

10/19 

2:00-4:00 

Sun 

10/26 

2:00-4:00 

 Listed By Michael Robles, Coldwell Banker-Burlingame

SALES

PALMER ↑2404 Palmer 3 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,120 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,085,800 SOLD for $1,100,000 in 4 days. One of our Belmont’s Best Deal picks of the week when it was listed.

↓2606 Carlmont Drive-4 Bed 2.5 bath 2,268 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,068,000 SOLD for $1,050,000 in 7 days.

Belmont–Coming Soon!



Drew & Christine Morgan (650) 508-1441




Drew & Christine Morgan
"Helping People Make Good Decisions"sm
(650) 508-1441

COMING SOON TO BELMONT
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Located in the coveted Belmont hills enclave of Belcrest Gardens
in Hallmark, this well appointed home enjoys large rooms and a well
designed floorplan.

Two of the most highly sought after attributes in Belmont is a
home with a level yard or with spectacular views–this home has
both! The rear of the home boasts a large family room with adjacent
dining area and kitchen which opens to a level rear yard with spectacular
pastoral canyon views.
Call for details and showing dates. (650) 508-1441
Features Include
 
Four Bedrooms
Three full baths
Lower bedroom for au pair or live-in guest
Hardwood flooring
Recessed lighting

Kitchen includes:

  • Birdseye maple cabinetry
  • New appliances
  • Recessed lighting
  • Corian counters
  • Eat-at counter
Excellent schools!
Dual paned bow windows
French doors
Approximately 2,450 Sq. Ft.
Price has not yet been determined–call for details
(650) 508-1441


Belmont–September Housing Statistics

Belmont’s housing sales for the month of September are in the books and the less than stellar report is probably not surprising given what you instinctively know.

Consumer confidence numbers are indicative of consumer sentiment and consumer confidence, although slightly higher than in August, is at only 59.8—indexed to 1985 when it was at 100. That’s not the whole story though as we predict it will drop once the consumer uncertainty over the seven billion dollar bailout are reflected in October’s numbers.

This graph illustrates the correlation between the number of available homes for sale and the number of sales.

Although inventory levels remain in check, the number of sales is disturbingly low for the month of September. As you can see by the interactive graph, September sales weren’t even this low in the month following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. The difference of course is that inventory levels are much lower than in 2001 and that alone should help keep values from deteriorating at an unhealthy pace.

The median price has held its’ own but one must remember that the median price statistic is the median price of homes which sold, not necessarily what the median price is for Belmont homes. That said the median price rose by $3,000 over the month of August while the median size home sold was considerably smaller—210 feet to be exact. At $527 per square foot that is a significant sign that values are holding relatively firm considering the tumultuous environment and we give this market indicator a positive denotation on that very note.

Here’s how the numbers stack up as compared to AugusSpet_changes_from_pmt:

(click for a larger view)

 

This is Belmont’s Full report for September 2008:

(click for a larger view)

Belmontsept_2008_2

Continue reading

Belmont Housing Activity–Week Ending September 27, 2008

Despite the radical financial news in the headlines people continue to buy homes and move forward with their lives.

Belmont’s inventory rose from a three week pattern of 47 listings to 49. New listings accounted for six of those and two more were –re-listed bringing this last week’s total of “new listings” to eight.

Pending sales also rose and last week as six homes went into contract. Just three homes sold but in all likelihood that will increase next week as we approach the end of the month.

NEW LISTINGS

Anita_not_ours_2 19 Anita Court—4 Bed 3.5 Bath 1,965 Sq. Ft. home for $1,388,888

Not really on a court at all, in fact the address should have read 19 Anita Avenue—opps.

Nicely appointed new construction on two levels. The level rear yard is accessed through the master bedroom, not our favorite design. Views are of the lower San Mateo section of 42nd street but end with San Francisco in the distant background. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 1:30-4:30–Listed By Patricia Gill, Cashin Company

1314 Paloma—3 Bed 3 Bath 2,390 Sq. Ft. home for $ 995,000

Sound too good to be true? Price per square foot this sounds like a deal, and it is if you don’t mind living in a home clinging to a cliff. Nice bay views but don’t expect a large yard for running around. BTW—this last sold in 2005 for $945,000. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 1:30-4:30–Listed By Michael Johnston, Alain Pinel Realtors

Newcastle_2 100 Newcastle—4 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,760 Sq. Ft. home for $975,000.

This home is located out in Redwood Shores though actually part of Belmont. Nice commute to Oracle! Not Open until Sunday, October 5th from 1:00-4:00–Listed By Arnaldo Salazar, Worldnet Realty

1980 Alden—3 Bedroom 1 Bath 1,126 Sq. Ft. home for $799,000

Alden is a nice but busy street and these homes are up a slight hill. The home’s nice inside but still needs some updating. It’s got a terraced rear yard that is mostly level. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 2:00-4:30–Listed By Debbie Wilhelm, Coldwell Banker

2908 Belmont Woods Way—3 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,850 Sq. Ft. ATTACHED home for $ 1,100,000

These high-end townhomes are located at the entrance to Belcrest Gardens (Hallmark) area in Belmont. They sport dramatic high ceilings and they’re located in their own little enclave. Nice for those who want space and low maintenance yards—because you really don’t have one. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 2:00-4:00–Listed By Cheryl Price, Alain Pinel Realtors

Fifth_2 1540 Fifth Ave—3 Bed 2 Bath 1,350 Sq. Ft. home for $910,000. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 1:30-4:30. Too new to review. Listed By Frank E Nichols, Century 21 Alliance

Located in the lower Belmont hills on the border of San Carlos, this area is zoned mixed use with high density multi-unit housing so the area is a blessing of single family homes and well kept apartments. As you can see it has room for a boat, but not for cars and a boat. Too new for tour but it’s open Sunday, 9/28 from 2:00-4:30

SORRY—No BEST DEALS this WEEK. We just couldn’t find any to wrap our head around.

RE-LISTS

2776 Belmont Canyon Road—5 Bed 4+ Bath 3,000 Sq. Ft. home for $1,488,000

Still overpriced in our estimation, this cliffhanger home has nice views of San Francisco and a level yard are, though it’s three stories down to get to it. Kind of a choppy floor plan in our opinion but very stately. Listed By Debbie Wilhelm, Coldwell Banker

3715 Encline Way—4 Bed-3 Bath 1,965 Sq. Ft. home for $995,000

We didn’t care for this home though it did get a contract on it that apparently fell through. It’s back on the market at the same price. Listed By Barney Diamos, Diamosbusiness Group

PENDING SALES

Our Belmont’s BEST DEAL from two weeks ago went into contract on Tahoe and last week’s Best Deal on Palmer sold in just four says.

Also going into contract were 317 Malcolm, 15 Kittie Lane that’s been on the market FOREVER (268 days) and 2319 Coronet, once again.

SALES (Closed Escrow)

↓1826 Oak Knoll —4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,460 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $999,888 SOLD for $950,000. This home was on the market since June when it was listed for $1,159,000.

↑905 Avon Street—4 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,820 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $999,000 SOLD for $1,050,000 in 24 days. Defying all logic, this home sold after more than three weeks for $51,000 over asking and the listing never even had a picture in the MLS. Wonder what it could have sold for?

Median Price Methodology–What’s Your Home Really Worth?

Unasked3 As a frequently unasked question and part of our real estate REVEALED series, we delve into how the median price is determined and reported for your city.

Listen right here or subscribe to our Podcast by clicking on the upper left RSS icon.

This graph illustrates the appreciation for homes which sold in the second quarter of 2008 and had previously sold within the last ten years.

Clearly the best way of determining what appreciation is for a particular home is to watch the home trade hands in an arm’s length transaction several times over many years without any major improvements (other than maintenance).

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Methodology comes closest to achieving this on a macro level. However there are inherent limitations in the methodology they employ. We’re not here to find fault with their method of data collection and interpretation—clearly it is as good as it gets on a macro-level—but for interpreting micro or niche markets it uses too broad a brush to paint an accurate picture of a particular area’s housing landscape. Here’s why:

·         It lumps many micro and niche markets into one large metropolitan area and cannot effectively differentiate smaller market areas since it relies on huge volumes of data in order to arrive at meaningful results.

·         It uses an algorithm to exclude all old sale pairs to support their assumption that older home sale pairs must have been remodeled. This has the unwanted effect of throwing the baby out with the bathwater, and discards very valuable information on repeat sales pairs which have not been updated over long periods of time.

We have overcome these limitations by being able to use the "sales pair" methodology and exclude homes that have been remodeled based on our personal experience in seeing virtually every home that has sold. In fact some of the home sales used are homes we’ve personally sold in the course of our 17 years in business.

However, due to the relatively small market sample our data will be more vulnerable to isolated sale anomalies but to a certain degree that is mitigated in that 100% of our data is usable—and local.

  • We can also go back to homes that sold recently which have not traded hands in the last 30 years and still included them in our study so long as we can verify they have not been remodeled.
  • We can also distill this information down by neighborhood.

Essentially we have watched the same sales pairs sell and can analyze the empirical and statistical data to offer a sound assessment of a particular areas value trends.

Here are some interesting facts–for 2nd quarter 2008 sales:

·         58 homes sold during this period

·         22 had not sold within past nine years and were excluded

·         11 were remodeled and excluded

·         25 were not remodeled and were used for our study

·         Only homes sold that were purchased after 2005 have sold for less than what they were purchased for.

Of those seven sales after 2005:

                1 was a foreclosure

                1 was a short sale

                1 was an REO (bank owned sale)

                2 non distressed properties showed an average of 11% appreciation

                1 non distressed property lost 15%

                1 non distressed property lost 20%

               

The homes that were selected had sold in prior years and had no extensive remodeling performed. Each sale pair represents the best analysis presently available for tracking the same home exchanging hands over time. Several recent distressed sales have perhaps skewed the numbers in that they were foreclosures selling at what was owed, not what it might have been worth. Nevertheless the data is for the most part reliable and illustrates that only people who overpaid for homes from 2005-2007 may now own a home worth less than what they paid for it as a result of the downturn.

Download Median.mp3

Belmont’s SAVE THE MUSIC

Save_the_music_banner_copy_3 

This is a great opportunity to get out and support the Save the Music foundation while enjoying a great day with your neighbors and friends. The whole town becomes one giant street faire with food vendors, music and dancing—all outdoors at the Twin Pines Park.

“Twin Pines Park is the perfect backdrop to grab some delicious food, sip sangria or an Oktoberfest brew, and listen to classical, jazz, rock, and salsa performances. Feeling the need to move your hips? Grab a partner and hit the Club Mistral dance floor, or just groove out in the meadow. 3 Stages brimming with music and fun!

Parents will love the variety the event offers for the whole family. The Children’s Area offers all the games young children love, as well as jump houses, train rides, and the wonderful children’s performers. Of course, Music is the main event so take the family over to the “Musical Instrument Petting Zoo” and have fun trying out all the different instruments.”

We hope to see you Sunday, October 5th – bring a friend!

About The Foundation

Whether it’s Bach or the Beatles, The Rolling Stones or The Wiggles, each of us is moved by music.

In 2003 School-Force, the Belmont Redwood Shores School District foundation, created Save the Music with the Little School District that Could to help save disappearing music enrichment programs in our schools. Since its inception, the Save the Music Festival has raised more than $250,000 through corporate sponsorships and community participation, funds which have been used to retain music teachers, develop music curriculums, and purchase music instruments.

Belmont Housing Activity–Week Ending September 20th 2008

Belmont’s inventory of homes for sale ended exactly where it started off for the third week in row at 47 homes for sale. There were four news listings, six homes went pending and four closed escrow while two homes dropped off the inventory rolls as sellers gave up on trying to sell their homes.

NEW LISTINGS

Cipriani 2305 Cipriani 3 Bed 2 Baths 1,840 Sq Ft home for $ 1,050,000.

If you’re looking for a move-in condition home here’s one for the top of your list. Ok Cipriani is a busy street but the home sits back far enough to afford privacy and offers a nice level, large rear yard that looks like a park.

1136 North Court 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,290 Sq Ft. Home for $765,432

Too new to review but it looks like a nice home. FYI it sold in 2005 for $719,000—more on this one next week. In case you didn’t notice the exhaustive research that went into calculating the exact listing price—just count backwards…

E 2404 Palmer 3 Bed 2.5 bath 2,120 Sq Ft. home for $1,085,800Palmer

Also too new to review is this awesome looking home on Palmer—an excellent street in the Belmont hills.

It might just be too good to be true at that price. If you want a level yard, quiet street and newer home in Belmont this is a must see. This will in all likelihood be our BELMONT’S BEST DEAL for the week.

2122 Forest 3 Bed 2 bath 2,198 Sq Ft. home for $ 975,000.

Who know what is up with this home. There’s no agent tour, no open houses listed, it’s tenant occupied and there’s no pictures, virtual tour or anything. I guess they think this home will sell itself.

BOM (or back on market)

1224 North Road 2 bed 1 bath 980 Sq. Ft. home for $599,000

This home had a pending sale that fell through. No yard at all but nice Bay views. Better than a condo and all remodeled inside.

803 Alameda de las Pulgas 2 homes on one lot.

This one’s strictly for an investor but there’s some opportunity here.

Remeber–if you are interested in seeing any of these homes we can represent you under our Buyer Rebate program where you receive a 20% rebate!

SOLD HOMES (CLOSED SALES)

↓3442 E Laurel Creek Listed for $ 768,500 SOLD for $765,000 in 9 days. This was one of our BEST DEALS when it hit the market.

↓11 Kimmie Court 4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,690 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,125,000 SOLD for $1,035,000

Completely original condition.

↓2117 Cipriani 4 Bed 4+ Bath 2,400 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,358,000 SOLD for $1,295,000 in 22 days. Completely remodeled home. BTW-this sale makes the home at 2037 Monroe that was lowered to $1,199,000 a good deal now! It’s a 5 bed 4+ bath remodeled 2,650 Sq. Ft. home!

↓1811 Valdez 3 Bed 2 bath 1,220 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $799,000 SOLD for $795,000. ALL original—never hit the market.

Belmont Housing Activity–Week Ending September 12th 2008

It was a busy week for Belmont real estate which was expected now that summer vacations are over and agents get back to work like everybody else.

Out of the gate there were seven new listings, two re-lists, seven pending sales and three homes closed escrow bringing the inventory of single family homes for sale to 47—just like last week.

NEW LISTINGS

Tahoe 1132 Tahoe 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,610 Sq Ft. listed for $899,000. This home was purchased in June of 2006 for $900,000 and it was a major dump back then. The new owner has done a lot to the home and although it’s not quite finished, it’s pretty nice—especially for $899,000. Put this one on your short list if you’re out this weekend.

925 Waltermire 3 bed 1 bath 1,120 Sq Ft home for $749,000. If you don’t mind living next door to Safeway this home could be for you. Better yet you can run a business out of it since it’s zoned commercial according to the listing agent.

Hillcrest 3410 Hillcrest Dr. 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,640 sq. ft. home for $849,000 is even better yet. It’s in great shape with a level yard. The street is busier than Tahoe but it costs a lot less too. Move-in condition and our BEST DEAL OF THE WEEK.

2827 San Juan 3 Bed 3 Bath 2,380 Sq. Ft. home for $630,500—no—that’s not a typo.  It’s an REO and there are no showings until 9/17 but drive by and you’ll want to at least take a peak. In its prime I used to drive by this house on my way home with it all lit up and wish I could see inside. It looks like a grand old southern estate on the hill. OK, there won’t be a big level yard and who knows how bad it is inside…yet. We’d make that the Best Deal of the Week except that it could need more work than even we anticipate. Sorry—no picture available.

1908 Valdez 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,290 Sq. Ft. Home for $ 939,000 is no steal. I’ll bet that one will be around for Thanksgiving turkey.

2606 Carlmont 4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,268 Sq. Ft. home for $1,068,000. What can we say? Those homes are in a nice canyon and all seem to be selling around this price. They’re technically attached though only conjoined by the garage (a small zoning concession to the city). Great square footage at a reasonable price and only 13 years old.

2012 Monroe 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,830 Sq. Ft. home for $942,000 was going to be our BEST DEAL of the week but some savvy buyer snapped it up one day one. Very nice indeed.

1726 Terrace 4 Bed 2 Bath 1,710 Sq. Ft. home RELISTED for $1,099,000 from $1,299,000 in April. In Belmont most homes fall into two categories with the exception to the rule being ones with level yards. They are either cliff hangers (down slope homes) where you need a bungee cord to get to the rear yard or Cliff Clingers (upslope lots) where the side of a hill is your rear yard retreat. This home falls in between with some useable yard. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not beating up on hillside homes—they can have amazing views.

2016 Lyon 3 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,781 Sq. Ft. home RELISTED at $959,000 (old price $964,500).

►If you want to see any of these homes don’t forget about our Buyer Incentive Rebate program for first time buyers to help you close the deal.

SALES

STEAL OF THE WEEK goes to:

Sommerset ↓2581 Somerset 3 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,210 Sq. Ft. home in Hallmark Area never hit the market and sold WAAAY under what it should have for $1,040,000. To put this in perspective, the last two models like this home sold this year for $1,400,000 and $1,300,000 and there wasn’t a heck of a lot of difference.

↓2613 Coronet 2 Bed 1 Bath ONLY 910 Sq. Ft. listed for $763,800 and SOLD for $758,000 great home but TINY!

↑1134 North Court 3 Bed 2 Bath LISTED for $749,000 SOLD for $810,000. It sold for $ 951,000 back in 2005.

August 2008 Housing in Review–San Mateo County

The big news in August was the Government take-over of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae which has had the desired effect of bolstering mortgage backed securities and lowering interest rates. What it ends up costing us all is yet to be determined but suffice to say it’ll probably be worse than if we suffered through a protracted catastrophic collapse of the United States’ financial markets.

Listen here to the audio version.

Looking at San Mateo County’s housing activity for August you get a glimpse at the impact the housing downturn has had and where it may be headed.

This graph shows the correlation between the number of homes for sale and the median price:

  • Median Price is down a statistically insignificant amount–$5K from July to $795,000. Down 16.3% from August 2007
  • Belmont and San Carlos down around 4% year over year
  • Menlo Park posts a ½ percent increase in the median price.
  • Closed sales down from July’s 428 to 376 in August–last August there were 366 sales
  • Inventory declines again–third month in a row from 1886 in July to 1773 in August. Up 14% over August 2007 at 15544
  • Month’s supply of home rises only slightly to 4.7 from 4.4

Download August.mp3