Bay Area Housing Prices Rise– Case-Shiller Report June 2010

We’re thinking we should simply name this series after our last post, “There you go again”, in honor of the media whenever it manages to make a mountain out of a molehill.

Typically, bad news is negative news since that’s what sells, but sometimes when the media get scooped by another outlet, they will try and dig up an opposing opinion in order to get a piece of the attention; further managing to confuse (or mislead) their audience.

We see it over the spectrum of issues, but one common theme is they are typically issues that are “hot buttons” with their audience, like the economy, housing, jobs etc.

It’s not hard to point out their lack of diligence—to dig a little deeper and ask “why”. So why don’t they do it? In today’s sound-bite media world it’s not about accurate reporting so much as getting the story out there fast and first.

We tend catch slanted real estate reporting since it is what can easily spot, but it’s prevalent in many other areas as well.

Take our last post pointing out the misleading report on housing sales decline. Almost simultaneous with that report was a report on the median price increasing. So they managed to exaggerate the report on the sales decline and overstate the median price increase. What’s a person to do?

If you’re like us we’re sure you’d like to reply on the news you hear as accurate, but unfortunately, that’s not always the case. Sometimes you have to dig deeper. Of course we’ll try and take some of that burden off of you. If you check in here regularly we try and ferret out the real stuff from the fluff.

What was wrong with their story about the median price increase in the Bay Area? On the surface nothing—the median price did increase in the Bay Area. But they are insinuating by the context in which they issue the report  that the median price increase is representative of home values going up. In fact, often times the median price changes have more to do with the mix of larger or smaller homes selling than it has to do with varying prices.

As in when the media reported that the sales of homes had decreased in San Mateo County by the highest margin in 15 years, but failed to mention that the data they were basing their story on had yet to be released and was only estimated. They also reported that the median price in San Mateo had increased without mentioning that is was in all likelihood a result of larger homes selling rather than prices increasing, as reported by the California Association of Realtors who provided the information they relied on.

This is from the California Association of Realtor press release. The same one cited in articles discussing the Bay Area median price gain.

“Note: Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices for July may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand…”

And indeed if one digs deeper they find that foreclosures, which pulled the median prices down, and which accounted for nearly 50 %of all sales had dwindled significantly.

Did the values of homes in the Bay Area rise? In some areas in fact they did, just not as much as reported. The case-shriller report which looks at the same house selling repeated times, and thus considerably a more reliable source, shows that indeed values have been rising steadily since April of 2009.

As with the report on declining sales, in the end is their report wrong? No. just not as accurate as it could be.

Belmont’s Greek Festival at the Church of the Holy Cross 2010

It’s that time of the year again for the Greek Festival in Belmont.

Each Labor Day weekend the Greek Orthodox Church hosts its annual Greek Festival at the Church of the Holy Cross at the corner of Ralston Avenue and Alameda de las Pulgas. This year, the Greek Festival in Belmont will be on Saturday, Sunday and Monday September 4th-6th 2010 from 12:00 PM to 10:00 PM. If you love to try great food and spirits you’ll be in heaven. The Greek Festival never disappoints when it comes to entertainment for the whole family.

As an advertiser of the Greek Festival, we have complimentary tickets for you and your family. Simply use this form to request your tickets and we’ll get them to you A.S.A.P.

Greece 

Here’s some more information on the event from their web site…

Find the meaning of kefi (joy) in this three-day true Greek extravaganza. The Belmont Greek Festival will feature delicious Greek meals and desserts, nonstop music and dancing, exciting exhibition folk dancing, choral folk singing, a captivating mythology play, a fun children’s amusement area, and children’s entertainer Andy Z.

Up to 20,000 people are expected to attend, festival organizers said. All guests will receive a special 40th Anniversary commemorative program book containing articles about Greek culture, recipes, Greek language phrases, information about the festival’s history and photos from past festivals.

“Greeks are famous for their hospitality,” said Festival Co-Chair Gary Brenner. “Our Belmont festival was the first Greek festival in Northern California, and we’re so proud to welcome guests of all ages to our 40th celebration weekend.

“It all starts with lots of fantastic, mouth-watering food and drink,” Brenner continued, “and it keeps on going with the fun and excitement of our dancing, music and theater. Before you know it, you’ll be shouting, ‘Opa!’ just like the Greeks.”

Some of the favorite festival menu items will include souvlakia (Greek shish-kebab), barbecued lamb chops (with special Greek seasonings), spanakopita (spinach and cheese stuffed inside layers of filo pastry) and dolmades (grape leaves wrapped around ground beef and rice). Not forgetting the best Greek salad west of Athens, and roast lamb – the festival will feature 10 spit-roasted whole lambs turned for hours by hand before visitors’ eyes!

There will also be traditional homemade Greek pastries such as loukoumades (doughnut holes covered with honey), baklava (layers of nuts and filo pastry soaked in honey), kourambiedes (crescent-shaped butter cookies covered with powdered sugar) and galactobouriko (filo pastry filled with custard and covered with syrup).

Visit the taverna to sample Greek libations such as ouzo (anise-flavored aperitif), retsina wine and Metaxa brandy, and enjoy special wine tastings featuring Greek and American labels. Draft microbrewery beer and bottled Greek beer will also be offered to complement your meal, or just enjoy a glass sitting on the plaka (central plaza) while watching fellow visitors dance.

Cooking demonstrations will be offered daily – learn the secrets of Greek cooking and bring the benefits of a Mediterranean diet home!

Visitors also will enjoy continuous music from a live Greek band so they can dance the traditional kalamatiano, tsamiko, zeimbekiko and other Greek dances. The amazing “Sons of Ulysses” will dazzle the audience by lifting tables and chairs with nothing but their teeth!

In addition, several award-winning folk dance groups will perform throughout the weekend in their colorful, hand-made costumes. In an outdoor amphitheater reminiscent of the ancient theaters of Greece, children and adults alike will enjoy a special drama production featuring the heroes and villains of Greek mythology. The popular Festival Singers and Folk Ensemble will also perform Greek folk songs in the amphitheater.

Look for the Fun Zone children’s area in the shadow of the windmill, boasting games, rides, bouncy castles, crafts and more, just for young people. Don’t miss nationally-known children’s favorite Andy Z, a local singer-songwriter-guitarist who brings his award-winning show to the amphitheater on Saturday and Monday.

Tours of the award-winning Byzantine-style church, including the recently-installed mosaic iconography, will be given throughout the weekend, and the Holy Cross Church Liturgical Choir will sing during the church tour on Sunday at 2:00 PM.

Speak Greek? Visit the Greek Language School’s cultural booth, malista (yes)! Other festival highlights will include art, clothing, jewelry and gift boutiques, as well as religious icons and a bookstore.

The Church of the Holy Cross supports many charitable groups throughout San Mateo County, and each year, the church donates a portion of the festival proceeds to several local charities. Previous recipients of festival donations have included Samaritan House, Interfaith Network for Community Help (INCH), Children’s Advocacy Council, local schools and churches and the Belmont mayor’s choice of charity. In addition, Holy Cross Church sponsors several children from the Children’s Receiving Home of San Mateo County as special guests of the festival.

The hours of the Belmont Greek Festival are Saturday, September 4, and Sunday, September 5, from Noon to 10 PM, and on Monday, September 6, from Noon to 8 PM. The Fun Zone for children closes at 7:00 PM all three days. The Agora (our "White Elephant" room) closes at 6:00 PM all three days.

Admission is $5 for adults and $2.50 for seniors and youth ages 13-17. Children 12 and under are admitted free, accompanied by a parent or guardian.

For more information, explore their website further, or call (650) 591-4447. Yassou!

Garbage Strike Hits Belmont and San Carlos

What's that wafting about in Belmont? The rumblings sure aren’t from the Allied Garbage trucks but rather disgruntled garbage workers.Trash

If you live in Belmont you must have heard, if you haven't smelled it yet, that the garbage strike has left San Carlos and Belmont’s waste removal program canned for the time being. Apparently the garbage workers decided to strike when contract negotiation broke down with Allied Waste–while it’s actually the truck drivers who joined their co-worked in a showing of solidarity that stalled the pick-ups.

The only thing worse than the stench of garbage sitting on the curb for days is the foul way it was handled by the Allied Waste management.

Wednesday night at 11:05 we received two phone calls, courtesy of Allied Waste, telling us our garbage would be picked up on Friday. Couldn’t they have waited until morning? Pick-up would be for two more days. Another wasted opportunity to demonstrate customer service.

So if you’ve got the blues thinking your neighborhood is going downhill with trash littering the street take heart, Allied promises to dump their current strategy and resume pick-ups soon.

 

 

 

Suppressing Consumer Confidence–It’s all in the headlines

There you go again…Int4

That line was made famous by Ronald Reagan when he was running for office against President Jimmy Carter in 1980. It was used by then Mr. Reagan as a way to diffuse opponents who harped upon the same issues over and over.

Well the media is at it again. The media loves its headlines and of course they need to sell papers so it’s not put past them to choose a sensational attention grabbing headline and find data to support it.

Take the August 19, 2010 report on home sales in the Bay Area. The headline in the San Jose Mercury read “Peninsula home sales plunge in July”. Define plunge?

They reported, “After steadily rising for several months, Peninsula home sales plummeted to near-historic lows in July as demand remained tepid and the federal homebuyer tax credits that had helped caffeinate the marketplace in the past year finally went away".

When were these “near historic lows”? How near and how low were they?

Clearly the article is saying sales are down, and they are, but they fail the test of balanced journalism when they neglect to add the caveat “as expected”.

The accuracy of their article is subject to scrutiny as well. I reviewed our own analysis which we do every month since I didn’t recall being impressed by the large discrepancy in year-over-year sales mentioned in their article.

Our data is mined from the Multiple Listing Service. It doesn't contain all home sales—just ones which were listed with real estate agents. The percentage of homes which transfer ownership without the involvement of a real estate professional remains consistently a small percentage of all the homes which transfer—consistent being the operative word since the delta from one month to another is negligible.

Our statistics showed 385 single family homes closed escrow in July 2010, down from 393 in July 2009. According to our data the number of fewer sales this July compared to last were just eight, or 2%.

The San Jose Mercury claimed it was the lowest month for home sales in 20 years. But how many fewer homes sold? They don’t say. They also don’t mention that Dataquick, the source cited in their article as the resource for their reporting, issued a statement on August 19th, 2010 (the date cited as being used by the San Jose Mercury) saying that they only estimated the sales for San Mateo County:

“San Diego-based MDA DataQuick is a division of MDA Lending Solutions, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. MDA DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Because of late data availability, sales were estimated in Alameda and San Mateo counties.”

But more to the point, industry experts predicted that home sales would drop after the expiration of the housing stimulus tax credit on May 1, 2010. Last year—the year used for comparing sales—the tax credit was still available in July.  One only has to go back to 2007 to see sales as low as they were this July, not 20 years.

In Santa Clara county they report: “1,159 single-family resale homes that closed escrow represented a drop of 24.3 percent from the 1,531 sold a year earlier, making this the second-slowest July since 1990, according to figures released Thursday by the real estate information service MDA DataQuick.

I didn’t bother to verify any of this information. But let’s assume it’s more accurate than what they reported about San Mateo County. Sales haven’t been this low since…1990. Why does that date ring a bell? It’s the date of the last housing downturn. So what their report tells us is home sales drop when the housing market drops, and sales have not started to pick up yet, because they no doubt will someday.

But what the report does is continue to fan the flames of consumer skepticism. Unless and until the housing market recovers, the rest of the country will suffer. Responsible reporting might help us get back on track sooner rather than later. We expect the facts—the news—good or bad. Just don’t skew what you choose to report to further your own agenda.

Sale SMC

Belmont Home Values – Report for July 2010

 
Belmont homes sales in July are just the thing headlines are made of.

Last month the median home price in Belmont was $ 975,000 and July it dropped 9% to $885,000. That doesn’t bode well for the positive home sales headlines, but rest assured the median size home that sold last month was also 18% larger. Comparing July sales this year to that of last July, in 2009 the median home price dropped 4.4%, but once again the size home which sold last July were 16% larger. What good does it do to report the median price when it varies from month to month so dramatically? Adjusting for the size home which sold can give us an indication of whether values are going up or down based on examining the price as adjusted for the size home selling. Clearly the values have gone up, even though the median price appears to have fallen.

Belmont July 2010

Sales

The number of homes which sold did disappoint us. This July saw only 20 homes close escrow as opposed to 32 in June and 31 last July. Since the “sales” ,or homes which closed escrow in July were no doubt actually “sold” in June, we also looked at the number of pending sales in July—homes which will close escrow in August. That stood at only 15 which is right in line with the last two years’ performance.

DOM

The time it took to sell a home this July was 27 days, down from 46 in June and 34 last July. That’s a good number to track to see where the momentum may be headed.

Percent Received

Sellers will be happy to note that on average they received $35,000 over their asking price with the average seller getting over 100%. Only four of the homes lowered their asking price—with one caveat these numbers are slightly skewed because one home received an offer $100,000 over their asking price. Nine sellers still accepted an offer less than asking—on average $23,000 less, with six sellers receiving what they were asking.

Inventory

Inventory levels remain high for this time of year. The number of available homes for sale is at 71; up from June’s 66 and last July’s 57. More supply would typically put downward pressure on prices, and 71 homes for sale his higher than normal. However, the increase is still well within healthy standards. The months of inventory—the time it would talk to deplete the inventory of homes for sale at the current rate they are selling—is at 3.7, a far cry from the national rate of nine months. This was helped by fewer home being listed for sale in July—only 27.

We attribute the increased inventory to several factors. Some sellers may need to sell their home and they’ve waited as long as they can, and/or sellers want to move and take advantage of lower interest rates on a move-up or retirement home. In any case more sellers are selling and some buyers are buying.

If you are thinking of selling your home this year the window of opportunity is upon us. The second wave buying season gets into full swing just after Labor Day. That gives us just enough time to get your home ready to show at its best. Give us a call for an interview if you are in the mood for a move.

 

Bay Area Housing Affordability Index 2010 (HAI)

 
The California Association of Realtors tracks the "HAI" which is the Home Affordability Index. Their methodology can be found here, but in a nut shell they take into consideration the median home price for a particular area, the median income, the current interest rates and mash it into an index which essentially says what percentage of the population can qualify for the median price home assuming they put 20% down and have 30% (which is conservative) income to debt ratios. The higher the index the more home people can afford to buy a home. Since there are three variables which could affect this outcome, a dramatic shift in any one could influence the affordability trend. In the case of today's market two of the three variables are in favor of home affordability-low interest rates and lower median home prices. The third-income-has impacted these number to some degree and kept the index from being even higher as wages have remained stagnate and unemployment is high.

What this means to you is if you are considering whether to buy a home in the Bay Area, unless you are concerned over your job security this is one of the best times to purchase a home in the Bay Area in decades. 

HAI

 

THE ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY USED TO CALCULATE C.A.R.'S TRADITIONAL HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX (HAI)THE ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY USED TO CALCULATE C.A.R.'S TRADITIONAL HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX (HAI)

Step 1. MEDIAN PRICE: C.A.R.'s housing affordability index is based on the median price of existing single-family homes sold from C.A.R.'s monthly existing home sales survey. Starting in 1987, this survey is based on reports of closed escrow sales from 80 Boards or more of REALTORS® and multiple listing services around the state. Prior to 1987, the survey was based on reports from 45 Boards.

Step 2. DOWNPAYMENT: It is assumed that a household can make a 20 percent downpayment on the median-priced home. Therefore, the loan amount needed to purchase a home would be 80 percent of the median home sales price.

Step 3. INTEREST RATE: Using the national average effective mortgage interest rate on all fixed and adjustable rate mortgages. This is represented by the effective composite rate for previously occupied homes, which is reported monthly by the Federal Housing Finance Board.

Step 4.The monthly payment for PRINCIPAL, INTEREST, TAXES AND INSURANCE (PITI) is computed as the sum of three parts: -Monthly mortgage payment, based on the terms of the mortgage in Steps 2 & 3. -Monthly PROPERTY TAXES are assumed to be 1 percent of the median home sales price divided by 12. -Monthly INSURANCE PAYMENTS on the house are assumed to be 0.38 percent of the median home sales price divided by 12. The results of these three calculations are added together to find the PITI or total monthly payment for a household that buys the median priced home.

Step 5. It is then assumed that the monthly PITI can be no more than 30 percent of a household's income. Thus, the monthly housing payment is divided by .3 to come up with the MINIMUM INCOME NEEDED TO QUALIFY FOR A LOAN on the median-priced home.

Step 6. Starting in 1988, data for the distribution of households by various income ranges was obtained from Claritas. INCOME DISTRIBUTION figures were developed based on the projected percent change in the annual median household income. Prior to 1988, household income utilized in the housing affordability index was based on projections by C.A.R. using the 1980 census data as a base. (I wonder who "projects" incomes-my emphasis and what criteria is used for that)

Step 7. The minimum income amount calculated in Step 5 is multiplied by 12 to determine the minimum annual income needed to qualify. This amount is compared to the income distribution of households. The percent of the households with incomes greater than or equal to the minimum income becomes the HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX (HAI). NOTE: The quarterly HAI series begins in 2006, prior to that the series was monthly. The quarterly HAI for a given geographic area in a particular quarter is based upon the quarterly median price for that area as well as the quarterly income distribution for that area.

Home Sales Decline As Tax Credits Expire – WSJ.com

"Some 60% of the 109 economists and other analysts surveyed by MacroMarkets LLC expect home prices to decline this year, up from 40% in May."

via online.wsj.com

I found this amusing. If their numbers are right, at 66% the economists are no better than the Supreme Court Justices at arriving at a consensus, and probably no more accurate than our local weather announcer when they do.

Belmont – Home sales for June 2010 in 94002

Belmont June 2010 SALES

Home sales in Belmont held their own as 25 homes sold in the month of June. Last month as you may recall 34 homes sold, the most in as many months. In June of 2009 20 homes sold and last year there wasn't a looming deadline to close escrow for a tax credit.

(click on the graphic for a full size picture)

Speaking of tax credit, don’t forget we’ve effectively extended the $8,000 tax credit by offering any first time buyer 1% of the purchase price as a credit towards their closing costs for anyone who buys a home through us and closes escrow between now and September 30th 2010.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price took another jump up from $848,500 last month to $975,000—a 15% increase. The size homes which sold during the same period were about 10% larger so there was still some upward pressure on prices not just the fact that larger homes were selling.

DOM

The time it took to sell a home in Belmont was up from 25 days last month to 46 days in June; a pattern that more-or-less holds true each year as folks have graduations and vacations on their minds in lieu of house hunting.

INVENTORY

The number of homes for sale has stayed relatively flat at 66 as compared to 60 in May and 62 one year ago. And the number of new listings appears flat too at around 30 each month. As long as sales continue at this pace inventory should remain in check.

With interest rates hitting the lowest point since records were kept it has helped spur refinances and it remains to be seen if it will spur more fist time homebuyer sales. If you are considering buying a home on the peninsula with rates and values at what appear to be the trough, you may want to consider getting that home you’ve always wanted but perhaps held off for until more favorable conditions—they’re here.

Don't forget we update the market statistics for San Mateo County, San Carlos, Redwood City and Redwood Shores each month on our web site at MorganHomes.com.

$8,000 Tax Credit Extended to September 30, 2010

Missed out on the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit?

 You'll be glad to know you can still receive $8,000 when you buy your first home through us.

 How do we do it? Simple. If you buy a home through us between now and September 30th, 2010 we will credit you 1% of the purchase price up to $8,000 in escrow for your closing costs.

 What's the difference between our credit and the government tax credit?

Well for starters you won't have to wait until next year's tax filing to get the refund-we credit it to you at closing so you can really put it to work.*

 Call us for details.

 

 Drew & Christine Morgan

"Helping People Make Good Decisions"sm

 

Carlmont Associates

1940 Ralston Ave.

Belmont, CA 94002

01124318 & 01174047

Office: 650-508-1441

Fax:    650-591-4329

 

*Some restrictions apply.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Belmont ( 94002) Home Prices for May 2010


Belmont “hit one out of the park” last month as 34 homes closed escrow. One has to go back to May of 2002 to see activity like that. Baseball Of course unlike baseball all the “teams” did relatively well as the last minute rush to capitalize on the $8,000 government tax credit lured at lot of new buyers to the closing tables.

But there’s sort of this snowball effect because many of the homes sold in Belmont didn’t even qualify for the $8,000 tax credit. Only 12 of the 34 homes had sale prices below the $800,000 cap. Yet the attention the tax credit received in the media probably buoyed the confidence of fence sitting buyers.

Belmont May 2010 

(Click on the chart of a full sized window)

 MEDIAN PRICE

$848,800—Homeowners are you depressed? It was $967,500 just one month ago! Think back—last year in May the median home in Belmont sold for $840,000 and for that you got an 1845 square foot home. This May you got a 1710 square foot home and in April it was 2418 but lest we not forget it cost you $967,500. The change in square foot may be a better indicator of value—here’s why: The change in square feet between May ‘09 and May 2010 was 135 (7.3%) which is probably closer to where values dropped year over year. Forget about April’s $967,500 benchmark for the year—there were some big homes selling that month and it threw the numbers way off.

DOM

The Days on Market (or the time it took to sell a home) went from 45 last May, to 44 this April and only 26 this May. So homes sold faster. What does that mean? Sellers are getting more realistic about prices and more buyers entered the market. That’s about all those tea leaves are telling you.

% Received of asking

Sellers in Belmont received 99% of their asking price (after price reductions). This is kind of a worthless statistic since homes invariably will sell close to asking once they are lowered to the right asking price. How about if we were to look at last May (98%) and last month (99%) see—statistically no change. Now let’s look at what seller received before they lowered their price—what percent did they get of their original asking price? Turns out at 99.84% it tells us very little accept that not a lot of bargaining goes on in our market. What we do learn is that only 4 people had to lower their asking price to get a sale—the reason for the small differential. But if we look at sellers who accepted less than their asking price we see a different story. Fifteen of the 34 sales received on average $26,000 less for their home while three homes received their asking price, the other 16 sellers received on average $21,000 over their asking price.

Now that the tax credit is over will the flurry of home sale activity be akin to radio silence? Stay tuned for our June update.