|
|
|
|
Belmont and the Bay Area Peninsula Housing Downturn
If you’re wondering where the housing downturn is headed in Belmont you can get a good indication by these two snap shots taken for the month of March 2007 and 2009.
We use 2007 as a benchmark since it was the last year where the impact of the housing crises had not yet been realized in our market.
Here are some startling yet revealing statistics:
The far right column of this chart says it all. Every indicator in red illustrates a deterioration of the seller’s market which has prevailed for so long.
You may notice that even though larger homes sold in 2009 the median price still dropped $161,500 in 2009. Adjusting for this, the real median price drop is actually $252,850 or 26%.
Today, on average it will take almost three times as long to sell a home in Belmont; when you do sell you are likely to receive under you asking price. In fact statistically you no longer have any chance of getting over your asking price and the odds of getting less than your asking price has increased by 50%. Sellers now receive on average only 96% of what they ask for their home compared to over 103% in 2007. In real dollars that translates into a swing of $52,000.
In the end, this much anticipated market correction will produce a more stable real estate market. Affordability is increasing and eventually sales will increase as buyers feel more optimistic about the future, including job security and housing stability.
Considering the drop in value we are experiencing, for sellers who are debating a moving out of the area, sooner rather than later will probably produce a better result. In all likelihood it will be many years before inflation drives price points back to levels seen in 2007.
A down market is typically an attractive time for sellers who are thinking of a move up. The logic behind this is a more expensive home is less in real dollars–and also saves you thousands of dollars in property taxes over the life of your ownership. Our current market also includes attractive Interest rates that are at historic lows, though Jumbo loans are not enjoying the full benefit of the government’s intervention.
Buyers who have stable jobs and are planning to live in their first home for five years or more are benefitting the most from the current conditions. Prices are at a low not seen in years, interest rates are at historic lows, the government is paying them $8,000 to buy a home this year, multiple offers are for the most part non-existent and the high inventory levels means there are a lot of homes to choose from.
In every market, there are opportunities. If you would like advice on how to make the most of our current economic climate give us a call at (650) 508-1441.
*Data retreived from the MLS
The information contained in this post is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal or tax advice, nor does it substitute for legal or tax advice.
HOUSING REFORM-2009 Panacea or Panic?
The news is full of housing reform stores but the shelf life for reform legislation seems shorter than that of freshly baked bread—what made the news just yesterday is often obsolete by today.
We expect 2009 to be a turbulent time in real estate. Knowing how to weather the storm is paramount to the survival of homeownership.
Key Elements
President Obama signed a $787 billion stimulus bill which includes many features to protect homeownership.
These are a few of the incentives targeted to help 4-5 million responsible homeowners stay in their homes:
\\· Provide access to low cost refinancing where borrowers who have less than the required 80% loan-to-value could refinance to lower their monthly payment.
· Seventy-five billion will be spent on homeowner stability initiatives to help struggling homeowners who, because of the recession, are hard pressed to make their mortgage payments and cannot afford to sell or refinance their home due to a drop in value.
· No aide to speculators. The initiative has no provision for assisting investors or speculators.
· Provide support for homeowners who are at imminent risk of default before they miss a payment.
· Provide loan modifications to bring monthly payments to sustainable levels.
· â€Pay For Successâ€â€”Initiative for loan servicers to receive $1,000 per month each month a borrow stays current on their loan.
· “Help Borrowers Stay Currentâ€â€”Provides a $1,000 per month reduction in a home owners’ principle loan balance for five years if the borrower keeps their payments current.
· “Reaching Borrowers Earlyâ€â€”An incentive of $500 to loan servicers and $1,500 to mortgage holders if they modify at-risk loans before the borrow falls behind.
· “Home Price Decline Reserve Paymentsâ€â€”Holders of mortgages modified under the program would be eligible for an additional insurance payment (from a newly formed entity under the Treasury Department) on each modified loan to offset declines in the home price index.
There are quite a few more initiatives to help homeowners. Though many do not apply to the majority of the loans on the Peninsula since they are not held by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
Lenders Are Worried.
Recently, many lenders have been modifying loans without incentives just to keep their head above water. However in contrast to the President's incentive plans, many banks require the homeowner to be months behind in payments before any relief is possible.
►If your mortgage is scheduled for an interest rate increase which you feel you may not be able to afford, we encourage you to contact your mortgage holder immediately and see if they will modify your existing loan. It’s in everybody's best interest if homeowners can continue to make their monthly payments, even if it takes a loan modification to make it happen.
Best Dressed homes in 2008
With a nod to Carlmont High’s class of 2009 starting their first full week after winter break , and real estate just coming out of winter hibernation, we thought we’d take some of our downtime to summarize a few of our sales in 2008 and offer a big thanks to the many clients who hired us to help them get their perfect home this year.
Most Likely to Succeed
I guess you could say this Hillsborough home has already succeeded in many ways. At 10,000+ square feet it’s the largest home we’ve ever sold and at $10,990,000 it’s also the most expensive.
What a deal though, our buyer received an offer for over a million dollars more than what they paid for it a month later (they turned it down). LISTED for $10,990,000 SOLD for $10,900,000.
Check out the cool backyard with pool, tennis court and guest house!
Most Creative
Terrance and Patricia have grand plans for this modest home in Redwood Shores. We won this home for them in multiple offers. Plans include a two story addition which will give them views of the San Francisco bay! LISTED for $859,000 SOLD for $ 889,000 in four days. Good luck with your remodel!
Class Favorite
Everyone who has seen this home falls in love with it just like Chris and Tracey did when Chris found it online. We’d been looking for the perfect home for several years when lo and behold this estate came up in Los Gatos.
This has to be one of the neatest homes we’ve ever sold. Check out the outdoor entrainment possibilities with the coolest veranda we’ve seen.
Oh yeah, did we mention the weather down there makes outdoor dining a summer standard. Great housewarming party BTW. LISTED for $4,500,000 SOLD for $4,250,000
Best Dressed
Hands down for Best Dressed was this home in Redwood Shores. Chris and Tracey had an amazing home which we were happy to sell. Even our stager said she wouldn’t change a thing!
Check out the rear BBQ area that's the envy of the neighborhood. And thanks to Tracy’s interior design skills, she made this an easy sell and was rewarded with the highest sale ever in their neighborhood. LISTED for $1,428,898 SOLD for $1,400,000.
Most Talkative
Our listing in Hallmark gets the nod for most talkative since the neighborhood was abuzz when we listed it. We’d been prepping it for a month and being that it was on Hallmark Drive, it got quite the visibility. We were absolutely deluged at our open house and when we sold it in one week (in the midst of the financial melt-down) the calls were rolling in asking how we sold it so fast.
The answer is the seller did everything we asked of him and readied is home with professional staging and enhancements. There’s a neat video if you want to see the before and after pictures. Thanks Eiji—you were a pleasure to work with and we are still saddened that you lost your cat one day before you moved—we’re always on the lookout for him. LISTED for $1,298,890, SOLD for $1,285,000 in about a week.
Thanks again for making 2008 another great year!
Real Estate re-cap–2008
Before we wrote this year’s forecast, we went back and re-read our assessment of where the market might be headed in 2008.
Of course very few people could have predicted that the dire real estate woes would drag the entire economy to the brink of collapse and we were no better than most.
However, for your enjoyment we’ve clipped a segment out of our 2008 market forecast made on January 4th 2008—and highlighted some of our more interesting comments:
“This is precisely why the Peninsula should fare better than other areas [in 2008]â€.
“However, it’s entirely possible we are on a precipice which could collapse at any time. What is [currently] impacting the Peninsula is the rising cost of energy—especially gasoline.â€
“What could have an incalculable impact would be a prolonged recession and loss of local jobs; either of these would undoubtedly bring a decrease in home values to the Peninsulaâ€.
In 2008, Investors eventually began to snap up undervalued properties in the central valley and a few of the nine bay area counties which were hard hit by foreclosures. This had the desired effect of liquidating the tidal wave of inventory but the undesirable effect of sinking the reported median price by skewing the sales mix to smaller homes (since smaller homes and distressed properties sell for less). The media meanwhile continued its relentless reporting of the falling median home price without appreciable application of responsible journalism. Bombarded by the media’s lack of analysis, invariably many buyers were frightened by the reports of falling home values and quite reasonably and expectedly took a “wait and see†attitude. That’s not to say the media’s information was wrong, but they do choose what to report and what to leave out and in many cases they reported numbers without the necessary perspective leading many to believe the housing situation to be far worse than it was in some areas, and far better than it was in others.
Although clearly there were several other factors which inhibited the ability of people to purchase homes—not the least of which was tighter lending standards and higher interest rates—our intrinsic evidence suggests that most credit worthy buyers on the Peninsula withheld from purchasing a home based on the fear of values spiraling down, not because they wanted to wait and “time the absolute market bottom†or couldn't get a loan.
Welcome to our 2009 Market Conjecture
Those of you who have been following us for some time know that at the beginning of each year we re-cap the previous year and take a stab at where the market might be headed in the upcoming year.
Of course you expect to read the median price has dropped and in fact it has, just not as much as you may have been anticipating. While the Bay Area nine counties reported a median price drop of over 40%* from 2007, Belmont had only a 5.4% decline and that’s after we factored into our calculations slightly larger homes sold in 2008. The raw numbers, which tend to be the only ones reported, suggest a decline in median price of only 2.6% for the year.
SALES ARE KEY
Sales are key to the survival of Realtors®, but unless you are selling your home you could probably care less how many homes sell in a given year. However, it gives us a good indication of overall market activity—with the caveat that sometimes sales are down simply because there are fewer homes to sell.
Sales of single family homes (our benchmark for all comparisons) were down from last years’ 219 to a paltry 170 for the entire year in 2008—a decrease of over 22%! Contrasted to a year of more normal market activity, (as recent as 2003 when 343 homes sold), sales are down up to 50%. Clearly we are in a period of slower than normal home sales.
HOMES LISTED FOR SALE
But were there fewer homes to sell in 2008? It’s hard to believe but for the entire year, at 309, there were only two fewer listings than in 2007.
What’s in store for 2009?
With the perfunctory disclaimer that past performance does not predict future results, we fear in 2009 it may however be quite true. We wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a continuation of the stagnant real estate market which has had a choke-hold on home sales in 2008. Interestingly, the last major downturn in real estate which began in 1989 was caused by an overall weak economy and most importantly the loss of jobs. In contrast, the current housing downturn has in effect created the recession—a reversal of past cycles.
That’s a long way of saying that housing cannot recover until the economy does and the economy won’t recover until housing stabilizes. Sound like a Catch-22? Well it is. And while it appeared in the second quarter of 2008 that the real estate recovery might begin in 2009, we now believe that will be pushed out at least another year. That said, any sign of a recovery will manifest with a leveling off of inventory and declining home values. A period of stagnant home values will invariably last for another year or two following a price plateau as buyers still wary of a volatile market will only reluctantly reenter the market. Most will wait too long and catch prices on the way back up but there’s no telling when that will happen. We’re not telling you to run out and buy a home as part of a fear based campaign, “Hurry or you may miss the bottomâ€, but in every market there are opportunities which should be examined. We learned long ago to resist trying to explain to people why they should buy a home and rather help those who are already motivated. Like the old saying, “You can lead a horse to water…†but he has to be thirsty. This year’s wild cards? Interest rates, consumer confidence the recessions and jobs, jobs, jobs!.
Cheers,
Drew
Real Estate Bidding–Are you a Bidder’s Fool?
As part of our Real Estate REVEALED series we answer another Frequently Unasked Question 
in our latest Podcast—how do you know when a home is priced right? In addition to this latest Podcast, we’ve added a web page that makes finding the entire series of archive issues in one place.
|
|||||||||||||
| Download Overbid |
Unveiling our NEW Fusion charts!
We’re very excited to bring you a new animated version of our graphs depicting the various housing market trends in San Mateo County and the cities which lie within.
Each month we download data from our Multiple Listing Service and analyze the market indicators. We provide this in-depth analysis for several of the many cities we serve on the Peninsula.
We’ve also added short audio tags to describe what we are depicting and help put the information in perspective (Click on the play button to hear a brief introduction).
Another feature will be our “Weekly Graphâ€. We’re not saying it will change each week but when an interesting trend develops you’ll find it under that tab.
We hope you’ll take a moment to check out our new graphical interface on our “How’s the Market?†link and give us some feedback.
August 2008 Housing in Review–San Mateo County
The big news in August was the Government take-over of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae which has had the desired effect of bolstering mortgage backed securities and lowering interest rates. What it ends up costing us all is yet to be determined but suffice to say it’ll probably be worse than if we suffered through a protracted catastrophic collapse of the United States’ financial markets.
Listen here to the audio version.
Looking at San Mateo County’s housing activity for August you get a glimpse at the impact the housing downturn has had and where it may be headed.
This graph shows the correlation between the number of homes for sale and the median price:
- Median Price is down a statistically insignificant amount–$5K from July to $795,000. Down 16.3% from August 2007
- Belmont and San Carlos down around 4% year over year
- Menlo Park posts a ½ percent increase in the median price.
- Closed sales down from July’s 428 to 376 in August–last August there were 366 sales
- Inventory declines again–third month in a row from 1886 in July to 1773 in August. Up 14% over August 2007 at 15544
- Month’s supply of home rises only slightly to 4.7 from 4.4
Making Your Home “Market Ready” For Sale
You’ve no doubt heard the term “staging” a home but there’s a lot more to getting your home ready for sale than just bringing in plants and re-arranging furniture.
The terms “staging” typically implies a professional designer has been retained to make a house look like a model home, yet there’s a lot more that goes in to staging a home. Often times, a home will need a complete facelift, as is often the case with trustee sales. Vacant homes always show better professionally staged, and even homes with modern amenities can use some detailing.
We break down staging into two categories. 1) Vacant homes for whole house staging and 2) Occupied homes for staging augmentation. Professional designers are akin to artists and often prefer a vacant home to an occupied one since they are beginning with a blank canvas, or palate if you will.
But getting a home ready for the final touches of furniture, plants and pictures often requires weeks of renovation. We coordinate with our design consultant to first identify our market segment–the buyer who will likely purchase the home. Then we take instructions as to what color scheme to employ and begin the process of renovation or upgrades. Some of the typical enhancements include:
· Fresh Paint
· Refinished hardwood flooring
· New carpeting
· New bathroom or kitchen tile, granite or other contemporary materials
· Kitchen cabinet re-facing or replacement
· Bathroom fixture replacement
· Hall and entry lighting enhancement
· Landscaping and fresh lawns
There’s no need to be anxious about the renovation process. As your “project manager”, we coordinate all enhancements with our professional team of property enhancement experts; from tile people to painters, handyman, hardwood floor experts and carpet installers.
The video you are about to see highlights several homes we’ve staged for sale and shows before and after images. If ever the saying “A picture is worth a thousand words” rings true it’s in this short video, enjoy.