Belmont homes sales continue to outpace California

Belmont_may_2008While reports of drastic median price drops continue in the media, isolated areas which are less impacted receive little or no attention. At some point one might wonder why the news isn’t about areas that are not as impacted—why are prices holding up so well when other areas are suffering the greatest set back in years. But those turning to the mass media are clearly missing the whole story. This week, on June 1st, the Open Homes Guide section of the Sunday edition of the San Francisco Chronicle ran the home price closings—for April!

Forget about the fact that they are typically 1 to 1.5 months behind the market, they dutifully report the numbers without analysis or professional perspective.

May home sales statistics for Belmont are in and while there are no real surprises, that may be the best news yet.

↑At 17, there were four fewer Belmont home sales in May than April. Year over year (adjusted for seasonal selling patterns) there is no change over 2007. In 2006 there were 21 sales in May and at the height of the market in 2005 there were 29. Considering what the rest of the state is going through, we consider this a positive indicator for home values.

↓Of the 17 sales five homes sold over asking, one sold at the asking price and 11 sold under the seller’s asking price. That’s not as strong as last month where nine homes sold over and 10 sold under while two sold at asking price.

↗The average home which sold over asking sold for $61,000 over the seller’s asking price in seven days. The one home that sold at the seller’s asking price sold in one day. Of the 11 homes that sold under asking, those had been on the market an average of 89 days and sold for on average $30,500 less than the asking price. Contrasted to April where the average home sold for $31,000 over asking in 18 days, this is a relatively good sign and clearly one more indicator that seller’s should hire a local professional to assist them in pricing their home right.

↗The median price was $1,098,000 in May. Just last month it was only $930,000. The median size home sold in April was 211 Sq. Ft. smaller than in May. At current going rate of $ 574 per square foot, that adds another $121,000 onto April’s median home price, or conversely, subtracting that from May’s median home price (which is closer to the actual median home size in Belmont), we arrive at an adjusted median home value of $977,000 for May—statistically no change over April’s. Nevertheless, no change is welcome and to have even a slight indication of price stabilization at this point is a positive market indicator.

Sign-up for our local newsletter and receive an email alert and link around the tenth of each month to our detailed graphs for Peninsula cities.

↔Unchanged

↑Positive market force

↓Negative market force

↗↙Probable trend upward or downward

(Click on the spreadsheet for a full size image)

Belmont’s Local Pub–Marvin Gardens

MorganhomesBelmont’s host to a few casual dining spots. Marvin Gardens is a good one and has been one of my favorite haunts since I was in college. Locally famous for its Starvin Marvin hamburger–a 1/3rd pound burger on a artisian soft roll–they’ve added pizza and appetizers like chicken wings since the original days. Gone are the days of an all male crowd arriving solely on two wheeled vehicles and throwing peanut shells on the floor. Today, the more family friendly eatery offers a relatively clean indoor or outdoor dining experience. Stop by and say hi to Jamie who bought the beer garden pub from Chip several years back. 1160 Old County Road, Belmont .

Best Bay Area Home Deals-May 30, 2008

This home in Daly City is the best deal we saw this week. It’s a short sale and the bank is willing to let it go for $500,000. It worth more than that, though it does need some fixing up. Last I heard there were four offers being submitted.

MIDWAY AV, Daly City 94015 (Daly City)
$500,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 bath(s)
DOM: 66  CDOM: 66   MLS: 786833 
Property Overview
519 MIDWAY AV
Daly City (Daly City) 94015
Detached Single Family (Class 1)
Bed/Bath: 3 / 2
SqFt: 1,170
Lot: 5,304 sq ft
Age: 61 years
Assoc Fee:
List Price: $500,000
Sale Price:
Sale Date:
COE Date:
Remarks
Subject to lender approval! Short sale!
Schools/Districts
Elem: —/ Jefferson Elementary
Middle: —
High: —/ Jefferson Elementary
Property Features
Familyroom
Separate Family Room

Informal Dining Area
Eat in Kitchen

Other Rooms
    —

Bedroom Descriptions
Ground Floor Bedroom

Shower And Tub
1 Shower over Tub

Shower
No Stall Shower

Other Areas
    —

 Amenities
220 Volts in Kitchen
Ceiling Fan(s)

Fireplace Location
Fireplace in Living Room

Floor Covering(S)
Hardwood

Energy Features
    —

 Listing Includes
1 Dishwasher
1 Refrigerator
Free Standing Range/Oven

Garage/Parking
1 Car Garage

Lot Description
Level Lot

View
Neighborhood View

 Yards/Grounds
    —

Has Pool
No Pool

Pool Description
    —

Pool Options
    —

Style
Cottage/Bungalow
Listed By Jen C Jacinto, Out of Area Office
Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com
** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed **

Going “Green” is all about image, not substance

It’s pretty exciting this time of year. Don’t you just love coming home to a full answering machine with voice mail messages from your representatives in government? Phone_2 I don’t know about you, but I feel pretty darn important when Bill Clinton calls and asks me to vote for his wife; or it’s Arnold Schwarzenegger himself calling to see if I’ll vote to be taxed a little more so he can balance the budget.

This year it’s the year of the postcard. Funny too, since all of the candidates are claiming to be going “green” this year.

Richard Holober’s postcard is not really a postcard at all. It’s an 8.5” x 11” glossy full page ad where he claims to be supported by the Sierra Club. I wonder how many trees the Sierra Club donated to his cause? At least one of his flyers appears to be printed on recycled paper. But the one with a picture of him standing next to a tree he is claiming to protect is absolutely ironic.

Gina Papan must own interest in a paper company for all the mail I’ve received from her lately.

Jerry Hill is another “Sierra Club" sponsored candidate according to a printed flyer I received from him. In fact, several other candidates who aren’t even running appear to have helped Jerry by sending out print flyers for him. Good for him. I like more mail too.

Perhaps they could all take a page from the Internet playbook and start blogging. Barack Obama has been sending me emails almost daily and I’ve yet to get one single piece of paper mail from him.

It’s going to be lonely around here after the election is over—I know I’ll never hear from any of them again.

Belmont’s Best Deal for May 21,2008

We thought this home was the best deal this week. It’s in a great area of the Belmont hills on the west side. Carmelita is known for having a warm micro-climate. For $699,000 this price is hard to beat. It has a larger than normal rear yard which is level–a rare find in the Belmont hills.

Call us at (650) 508-1441 or email dmorgan@morganhomes.com if you’d like to see this home!

CARMELITA AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$699,000 Beds: 2 bed(s) Baths: 1 bath(s)

DOM: 5  CDOM: 5   MLS: 809521 

Carm

Property Overview

CARMELITA AV

Belmont (Belmont) 94002

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Bed/Bath:

2 / 1

SqFt:

1,020

Lot:

5,829 sq ft

Age:

57 years

Assoc Fee:

List Price:

$699,000

Sale Price:

Sale Date:

COE Date:

Remarks

Wonderful quiet location; Darling home! Open, bright with walls of glass revealing quaint covered front porch and private fenced yard; Dining room has been walled off from living room to create a home office; easily re-converted; Updated kitchen! Nearly 6000 sq ft lot! Desirable Belmont Hills!

Schools/Districts

Elem:

–/ Belmont-Redwood Shores Elementary

Middle:

—

High:

–/ Sequoia Union High

Property Features

Familyroom
No Family Room

Informal Dining Area
No Informal Dining Area

Other Rooms
Bonus Room

Bedroom Descriptions
    —

Shower And Tub
1 Shower over Tub

Shower
No Stall Shower

Other Areas
Extra Storage

Amenities
    —

Fireplace Location
    —

Floor Covering(S)
Hardwood
Tile

Energy Features
    —

Listing Includes
1 Dishwasher
1 Refrigerator
Microwave Oven

Garage/Parking
Detached
1 Car Carport

Lot Description
    —

View
    —

Yards/Grounds
Fenced Yard

Has Pool
No Pool

Pool Description
    —

Pool Options
    —

Style
Ranch

Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com

** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed **

Belmont’s Beautiful Heat Wave

A week ago I posted a blog complaining about the relentless wind in Belmont over the past several weeks. This week we are enjoying record high temperatures not seen since 1970. Personally, I love the warm temperatures and slight breezes we get that take the edge off the heat.

May 14th we had high clouds which made for a spectacular sunset—I think one of the best I have ever seen in Belmont.

When the Peninsula gets weather like this I can think of no other place I’d rather be living.

05_14_hallmark_sunset_0032_edited1Nikon D70

Lens: Nikkor 18-200mm GED VR

Date taken: May 14th 2008

Time: 20:24:25

f/4.5      1/8 exposure     ISO 200                Handheld  40mm focal length

05_14_hallmark_sunset_0018_2 Nikon D70

Lens: Nikkor 18-200mm GED VR

Date taken: May 14th 2008

Time: 20:19:35

f/5.6      1/20 exposure   ISO 200                Handheld  200mm focal length

Belmont is in need of some negativity

If you’ve been thinking like we have, you’re probably wondering when will the weather get a little warmer.

The wind has been relentless this month. Our Davis weather station located at our home in the Hallmark area of Belmont, has been collecting data since we moved to from Barclay Way in 2001. We’ve been broadcasting it live since January 2002 and it receives more hits than any of our other web pages each month.

A recent software upgrade has allowed us to extract data for analysis and this is my first graph. It illustrates the wind at time intervals for the Month of May, 2008—to date.

Belmont_wind_508

Notice that there hasn’t been one day so far this month that there hasn’t been any wind between the hours of 12:45 PM to 11:00 PM!

The positive ions wind can create may actually have a negative affect on the body by raising stress levels. Ever wonder why lying near a stream or waterfall feels so relaxing? Moving water creates negative ions which counteract the effects of positive ions created by the wind. Try washing your face with water after a bike ride. We hear it’s not just the coolness of the water that feels so good; it’s the positive ions being cancelled out by negative ones that have a calming effect. Admittedly these articles are not from scientific scholars, but sometimes experiencing something for yourself is all the affirmation one needs.

After awhile, the wind begins to grow a little tiresome and we’re just waiting for a calm mild day—I know a lull before the storm.

San Carlos is in for a thrashing

If the media gets a hold of the median price changes in San Carlos they’ll be sure to spew more aspersions on the local housing market. According to the data reported in the MLS for San Mateo County, San Carlos’s median home price fell from $1,199,000 in March 2008 to $915,000 in April. If true, that would mean a drop in value of over $284,000 or 24% in one month!

But alas, homeowners need not listen to the media reports since they will invariably not account for the fact that the median size home which sold in April was a whopping 395 square feet smaller—accounting for approximately $252,000 in the adjusted median home price.

As always, full statistical data is available on our web page at Morganhomes.com and we frequently discuss housing market trends on the peninsula on our blog page, BeautifulMountainBlog.org

Redwood City—Hit Harder by Housing Woes

Redwood City California may have the best weather as advertised by the city’s slogan “Weather Best by Government Test”, but what it offers in weather it lacks for in housing—stability.

Redwood City has long been known for having a more volatile housing market. With a population of 77,000—double that of nearby towns—its housing affordability depends a lot on where in the city one lives.

Three zip codes separate different areas of Redwood City and last month the median selling price ranged from $480,000 in zip code 94063 to $1,045,000 in nearby 94062.

This graph illustrates the month’s supply of home available for sale. While the adjacent town of San Carlos has only 2.9 months of inventory Redwood City has 5.6.*

Rwc_april_2008

With a median price of only $885,000 as compared to San Carlos at $1,077,000, it’s easy to see why many people choose to purchase a home in Redwood City, but when the market changes, as it did last year, certain areas get hit hard.

It’s somewhat akin to buying a home on a busy street. When it’s a strong sellers market with competing offers for every home, selling a home on a busy street isn’t so difficult. Yet when it was a buyer’s market those homes are often the last to sell and they sell for disproportionately less than their cul-de-sac counterparts.

*The month’s supply of housing is the inventory divided by the homes selling per month. All data was retrieved from the San Mateo County MLS Prolisting.

As always you can see monthly updated graphs on our web page at MorganHomes.com

Bay Area Population Growth Helps Bouy Housing Demand

Anyone who owned a home in the Bay Area back in 1989 must remember the subsequent downturn in the market. That downturn was caused by a loss of Bay Area jobs. Home values fell as jobless homeowners sought to liquidate their mortgage overhead. Companies offered out-of-state relocations packages and early retirement to employees while many others opted to voluntarily move out of state. The latest Bay Area job report indicates that for now at least we are safe from that negative market force called unemployment. The nine Bay Area county population grew 1.4% last year and new arrivals helped buoy the housing market—if not more in the rental sector than homeownership. "It’s evidence that the Bay Area is doing better economically than the rest of the state," said Mary Heim, head of the demographics research unit at the state Department of Finance, which released the new population numbers. This link http://www.sfgate.com/webdb/population/ allows you to see any city’s population growth and it’s definitely worth checking out. Whenever there is a market sell-off due to dire circumstances, such as we are experiencing now in the foreclosure arenas, prices drop. Why? Simply put in order to be the next sale you must have the lowest price and/or be the best home on the market. The housing market today is not unlike that of 1990 in that in many areas folks are forced to sell their homes and prices are dropping. But the Peninsula of the Bay Area has been fairing far better. First, there are far fewer foreclosures on the Peninsula and thus virtually no downward pressure on pricing from that market force. There’s market skepticism and a general reluctance on the part of many to enter the market; and we all know the new tighter lending practices have make it difficult to impossible for many to buy a home if they wanted to. But jobs are not one of the issues facing the Peninsula right now. If the unemployment rate rises dramatically or more simply put, if people start to leave the Bay Area (voluntarily or not)—where more people are leaving than are arriving—it could all change. Clearly a prolonged recession could have just such an impact and tip the precariously balanced local housing market in favor of a drastic sell-off. See our homepage at MorganHomes.com for monthly updated local market graphs and our blog page at Beautifulmountainblog.org for detailed market analysis and commentary.