Peninsula Real Estate-A Market Update 7/8/2008

San Mateo County posted some interesting numbers for June 2008. Looking at the entire county is valuable since it’s a large market representation. In other words, small market sample idiosyncrasies have less impact in skewing the numbers. That said, San Mateo County also is comprised of radically varying micro-markets and therefore the overall numbers do not reflect any one particular city’s true performance.

For example, while San Mateo County’s median home price rose 11.8% in June of 2008 over the prior month of May, in Menlo Park the median price rose 28% while in Daly City it dropped 5.6%. Compared to June of 2007 it’s still down 12% for the county as a whole. So while some areas continue to see appreciation and growth, other areas are dragging down the numbers. Of course another way to look at it is areas like Menlo Park are artificially propping up the drastic drops in areas such as Daly City.

This graph illustrates the huge difference in local markets located within a few short miles of each other. Chances are if you don’t live in either of these two cities, the statistics for your city fall somewhere in between.

Mp_dc_2008

Median price comparison for Menlo Park and Daly City dating back six quarters. Source Multiple Listing Service San Mateo County. ©2008 Drew Morgan all rights reserved.

Belmont Market Report-June 2008

Not that you have to worry about reading it in the print media anytime soon, but just to give you a head’s up the reported median price for Belmont in June fell from $1,098,750 in May to $892,500  or 18.7% in June. Of course we’re here to put that stunning decline in perspective.

Smaller homes sold in June as compared to May skewing the median price as smaller homes tend to sell for less. The median size home in June was a whopping 390 square feet smaller than in May. At the going rate of $530.00 per square foot that accounts for $206,700 of price differential. Accounting for this, the adjusted median price for June would be $1,099,200—statistically unchanged.

(Click on the graph for a full-size view)

June_2008_belmont_sales

↑Sale were up slightly as there were 20 sales in June compared to 17 in May

↔The number of homes selling at or above asking stack up like this:

May 2008

June 2008

Δ

Sold Over Asking

5

4

-1

Sold at Asking

1

3

+2

Sold Under Asking

11

13

+2

In Summer, homes historically sell for less in Belmont in terms of the seller’s asking price so we’re scoring this as essentially no market indicator one way or another.

With half of the year over and behind us there’s not been a huge change in values despite the mortgage woes and higher than typical inventory. Foreclosures have had little impact on Belmont’s home values as the lending practices which gave rise to the current state of affairs in many areas of the country simply didn’t apply to Belmont’s more expensive median price point.

The question becomes not when will the market recover but when will it hit bottom. Our intuition tells us that the market will languish at the bottom for awhile before any appreciable median price increases take place. Of course it’s entirely possible we are already at the bottom, or that the bottom has passed—only time will tell. But Belmont’s market indicators seem to be suggesting that we are in a housing lull and perhaps what was going to happen to our market already did.

*One note on the above chart. The home on South Road sold but with a lease option. We estimated the selling price to complete the statistics since the monthly lease payment was recored in MLS, not the actual agreed upon purchase option price.

Full market reports are available by the tenth of each month at MorganHomes.com

Foreclosures have pitfalls for buyers

Ever since we launched our foreclosure portal on our web site we’ve been inundated with inquires requesting information on how to purchase one of the many homes going to auction.

What we did not anticipate was the general misunderstanding of the process.

First, the opening bid is inappropriately referred to as the "sale price" when in fact it is more accurately the opening bid price. This sale price is what seems to attract the throngs of interested parties since it sounds too good to be true, and in fact, it is.

Buyers are asking us, "How can I purchase that home?" Of course the answer is you attend the Sherriff’s auction and be the winning bidder.

Then they ask when can they see the home? Unfortunately, the answer is not until after you buy it. House_and_lock The Sherriff’s department does not conduct home tours, nor do they perform inspections and provide buyers with illuminative reports on the condition of the home. Bidders show up with 10% of the price they wish to bid and must provide the remainder within 10 days of the auction or forfeit their deposit.

If you are lucky enough to be the winning bidder and manage to get a home for less than what surrounding properties of like kind are selling for-good. Now all you have to do is hope that when you get the keys and open the door the walls are intact, the kitchen is still there and the floors are not ruined.

Unless you are a savvy investor with deep pockets we suggest that buyers stick with more traditional methods with safeguards for purchasing a home.

Belmont, Feeling the Chill?

It’s official. We’ve had a month of colder than usual weather interrupted only by a four day stint of hotter than usual days in the middle of May. Being one of best months for warm weather, May sure was a disappointment. And now June, notorious for windy conditions is upon us and it’s living up to its historical reputation.

Here are a series of graphs I produced from our weather station located at our home in the Hallmark Area of Belmont which illustrate the last month’s weather pattern:

This graph shows the highs and lows from May 4th to June 4th: Note if you click on any of these graphs you’ll get a full size window view where you can actually read the data.

Weather_hi_low

Weather_2 In this picture I’ve added a RED high temperature line to illustrate the day’s highs.

Hi_wind_speed_2The Orange line added here shows the high wind speed. It’s easy to see why we had warm weather for a few days–hardly any wind.

Wind_direction Finally, this graph shows the wind direction. Notice that when the wind shifts to the east, we have warmer weather and invariably when it is from the west (on shore breezes) it’s colder.

Don’t forget you can view this information live on our weather web page at MorganHomes.com

If you are willing to commute a little housing relief is in sight

On the Bay Area Peninsula, the housing values have remained fairly stable with low foreclosure rates and local job growth. But there are still relatively good deals to be had. One needs only to venture north to the upper end of the Peninsula–cities like San Bruno, South San Francisco and Daly City–to see the drastic discrepancy in the markets. For example, on the southern end of the Peninsula, in Palo Alto for instance, the median price has continued to rise slowly, while in Daly City the values have reached levels which pre-date the run-up in 2005. Of course living in Palo Alto has its benefits—not the least of which is a housing market well insulated from wild fluctuations, but it takes money to make money. Notice that the median home price in Palo Alto is more than double that of Daly City.

If you want more information on housing trends ro where to find opportunities in the current market, sign-up for our email alerts or call us at (650) 508-1441

Pa_qrtr_1_20052008

Daly_city_qrtr_1_20042008

Belmont homes sales continue to outpace California

Belmont_may_2008While reports of drastic median price drops continue in the media, isolated areas which are less impacted receive little or no attention. At some point one might wonder why the news isn’t about areas that are not as impacted—why are prices holding up so well when other areas are suffering the greatest set back in years. But those turning to the mass media are clearly missing the whole story. This week, on June 1st, the Open Homes Guide section of the Sunday edition of the San Francisco Chronicle ran the home price closings—for April!

Forget about the fact that they are typically 1 to 1.5 months behind the market, they dutifully report the numbers without analysis or professional perspective.

May home sales statistics for Belmont are in and while there are no real surprises, that may be the best news yet.

↑At 17, there were four fewer Belmont home sales in May than April. Year over year (adjusted for seasonal selling patterns) there is no change over 2007. In 2006 there were 21 sales in May and at the height of the market in 2005 there were 29. Considering what the rest of the state is going through, we consider this a positive indicator for home values.

↓Of the 17 sales five homes sold over asking, one sold at the asking price and 11 sold under the seller’s asking price. That’s not as strong as last month where nine homes sold over and 10 sold under while two sold at asking price.

↗The average home which sold over asking sold for $61,000 over the seller’s asking price in seven days. The one home that sold at the seller’s asking price sold in one day. Of the 11 homes that sold under asking, those had been on the market an average of 89 days and sold for on average $30,500 less than the asking price. Contrasted to April where the average home sold for $31,000 over asking in 18 days, this is a relatively good sign and clearly one more indicator that seller’s should hire a local professional to assist them in pricing their home right.

↗The median price was $1,098,000 in May. Just last month it was only $930,000. The median size home sold in April was 211 Sq. Ft. smaller than in May. At current going rate of $ 574 per square foot, that adds another $121,000 onto April’s median home price, or conversely, subtracting that from May’s median home price (which is closer to the actual median home size in Belmont), we arrive at an adjusted median home value of $977,000 for May—statistically no change over April’s. Nevertheless, no change is welcome and to have even a slight indication of price stabilization at this point is a positive market indicator.

Sign-up for our local newsletter and receive an email alert and link around the tenth of each month to our detailed graphs for Peninsula cities.

↔Unchanged

↑Positive market force

↓Negative market force

↗↙Probable trend upward or downward

(Click on the spreadsheet for a full size image)

Belmont’s Local Pub–Marvin Gardens

MorganhomesBelmont’s host to a few casual dining spots. Marvin Gardens is a good one and has been one of my favorite haunts since I was in college. Locally famous for its Starvin Marvin hamburger–a 1/3rd pound burger on a artisian soft roll–they’ve added pizza and appetizers like chicken wings since the original days. Gone are the days of an all male crowd arriving solely on two wheeled vehicles and throwing peanut shells on the floor. Today, the more family friendly eatery offers a relatively clean indoor or outdoor dining experience. Stop by and say hi to Jamie who bought the beer garden pub from Chip several years back. 1160 Old County Road, Belmont .

Best Bay Area Home Deals-May 30, 2008

This home in Daly City is the best deal we saw this week. It’s a short sale and the bank is willing to let it go for $500,000. It worth more than that, though it does need some fixing up. Last I heard there were four offers being submitted.

MIDWAY AV, Daly City 94015 (Daly City)
$500,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2 bath(s)
DOM: 66  CDOM: 66   MLS: 786833 
Property Overview
519 MIDWAY AV
Daly City (Daly City) 94015
Detached Single Family (Class 1)
Bed/Bath: 3 / 2
SqFt: 1,170
Lot: 5,304 sq ft
Age: 61 years
Assoc Fee:
List Price: $500,000
Sale Price:
Sale Date:
COE Date:
Remarks
Subject to lender approval! Short sale!
Schools/Districts
Elem: —/ Jefferson Elementary
Middle: —
High: —/ Jefferson Elementary
Property Features
Familyroom
Separate Family Room

Informal Dining Area
Eat in Kitchen

Other Rooms
    —

Bedroom Descriptions
Ground Floor Bedroom

Shower And Tub
1 Shower over Tub

Shower
No Stall Shower

Other Areas
    —

 Amenities
220 Volts in Kitchen
Ceiling Fan(s)

Fireplace Location
Fireplace in Living Room

Floor Covering(S)
Hardwood

Energy Features
    —

 Listing Includes
1 Dishwasher
1 Refrigerator
Free Standing Range/Oven

Garage/Parking
1 Car Garage

Lot Description
Level Lot

View
Neighborhood View

 Yards/Grounds
    —

Has Pool
No Pool

Pool Description
    —

Pool Options
    —

Style
Cottage/Bungalow
Listed By Jen C Jacinto, Out of Area Office
Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com
** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed **

Going “Green” is all about image, not substance

It’s pretty exciting this time of year. Don’t you just love coming home to a full answering machine with voice mail messages from your representatives in government? Phone_2 I don’t know about you, but I feel pretty darn important when Bill Clinton calls and asks me to vote for his wife; or it’s Arnold Schwarzenegger himself calling to see if I’ll vote to be taxed a little more so he can balance the budget.

This year it’s the year of the postcard. Funny too, since all of the candidates are claiming to be going “green” this year.

Richard Holober’s postcard is not really a postcard at all. It’s an 8.5” x 11” glossy full page ad where he claims to be supported by the Sierra Club. I wonder how many trees the Sierra Club donated to his cause? At least one of his flyers appears to be printed on recycled paper. But the one with a picture of him standing next to a tree he is claiming to protect is absolutely ironic.

Gina Papan must own interest in a paper company for all the mail I’ve received from her lately.

Jerry Hill is another “Sierra Club" sponsored candidate according to a printed flyer I received from him. In fact, several other candidates who aren’t even running appear to have helped Jerry by sending out print flyers for him. Good for him. I like more mail too.

Perhaps they could all take a page from the Internet playbook and start blogging. Barack Obama has been sending me emails almost daily and I’ve yet to get one single piece of paper mail from him.

It’s going to be lonely around here after the election is over—I know I’ll never hear from any of them again.

Belmont’s Best Deal for May 21,2008

We thought this home was the best deal this week. It’s in a great area of the Belmont hills on the west side. Carmelita is known for having a warm micro-climate. For $699,000 this price is hard to beat. It has a larger than normal rear yard which is level–a rare find in the Belmont hills.

Call us at (650) 508-1441 or email dmorgan@morganhomes.com if you’d like to see this home!

CARMELITA AV, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$699,000 Beds: 2 bed(s) Baths: 1 bath(s)

DOM: 5  CDOM: 5   MLS: 809521 

Carm

Property Overview

CARMELITA AV

Belmont (Belmont) 94002

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Bed/Bath:

2 / 1

SqFt:

1,020

Lot:

5,829 sq ft

Age:

57 years

Assoc Fee:

List Price:

$699,000

Sale Price:

Sale Date:

COE Date:

Remarks

Wonderful quiet location; Darling home! Open, bright with walls of glass revealing quaint covered front porch and private fenced yard; Dining room has been walled off from living room to create a home office; easily re-converted; Updated kitchen! Nearly 6000 sq ft lot! Desirable Belmont Hills!

Schools/Districts

Elem:

–/ Belmont-Redwood Shores Elementary

Middle:

—

High:

–/ Sequoia Union High

Property Features

Familyroom
No Family Room

Informal Dining Area
No Informal Dining Area

Other Rooms
Bonus Room

Bedroom Descriptions
    —

Shower And Tub
1 Shower over Tub

Shower
No Stall Shower

Other Areas
Extra Storage

Amenities
    —

Fireplace Location
    —

Floor Covering(S)
Hardwood
Tile

Energy Features
    —

Listing Includes
1 Dishwasher
1 Refrigerator
Microwave Oven

Garage/Parking
Detached
1 Car Carport

Lot Description
    —

View
    —

Yards/Grounds
Fenced Yard

Has Pool
No Pool

Pool Description
    —

Pool Options
    —

Style
Ranch

Presented by Christine Morgan, Carlmont Associates, 650-508-1441, cmorgan@morganhomes.com

** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed **