Crosswalk etiquette, a lesson for Belmont

Is crosswalk etiquette dead or did it ever exist?

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This is our city, Belmont California; and this is our office, Carlmont Associates. Here we are smack dab in the middle of Belmont on the corner of Ralston Ave. and Villa–obviously a big enough intersection to get Google’s attention.

The cross walk you see here is the topic of today’s rant. You see the city installed an illuminated cross walk—you know the ones with the flashing yellow lights imbedded into the street—to assist pedestrians in crossing the road. Well not really to help them get across, but to help them get there more safely by making it easier for them to be noticed.

Clearly in order to get to my office I play the role of both a driver and pedestrian. First, in defense of the drivers, it’s really hard to see people when you are staring into the sunset. Spin this interactive camera around and you’ll see what we mean. It’s much easier to see the lights flashing in the road than to see a pedestrian standing off to one side—especially when they are often obscured by opposing traffic.

Don’t get me wrong–I think these lights are a great idea. Especially since my night vision isn’t what it used to be. But pedestrians take advantage of the "It’s the Law" rule that one must stop for them in a crosswalk. When I’m the pedestrian (which I often am getting to and from our office), before I leap out into the crosswalk and stop traffic like Moses parting the Red Sea, as a common courtesy, I stop to see if the light at the corner of Ralston and Alameda is red or green. If it’s green, I’ll wait patiently and let the cars make the green light and only when it turns yellow will I press the power button to halt all traffic in deference to my presence. Do I have to do this? Of course not. The law is on the side of the pedestrian. Is it the courteous thing to do—of course.

Visit our web page at MorganHomes.com for detailed housing market analysis and I promise, no rants.

And just one more reason real estate sales are down…

After reading Kenneth Harney’s article titled “Tight credit hitting specialized areas of Knotmortgage market” in the May 3, 2008 Real Estate section of the San Francisco Chronicle, it struck me how far we have to go to return to a more normal housing market. Mr. Harney discusses the multitude of new restrictions on home mortgages which all have one glaring similarity—they make it harder for borrowers to get a loan.

Some of the new loan restrictions affecting home buyers are:

·         No more zero down financing

·         No more stated income for non self- employed people

·         No refinancing a property that had a cash-out refinance within the last six months

Some of the new loan guidelines for investors will also hurt the housing industry. A few of these are:

·         No investor shall be eligible for loans on more than four properties in total—the prior limit was ten.

This will clearly have a detrimental effect as housing seen from an investment perspective will be effectively limited to four properties—looks like REIT’s will be getting a second life when the housing market does pick up.

What’s entirely possible is that the market may never see another feverish housing boom–the likes of which swept the country in the last decade. Home affordability is still near an historical low, lending standards have never been tighter—the huge confluence of dual income qualification for loans and higher home values is off the table as that market effect has been played out already (we did an article on that months ago called the dual income trap).

Visit our Real Estate web page for monthly updated Bay Area home sale trends MorganHomes.com

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this intended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.

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Belmont’s “Green” Spring Faire

Mark your calendars for Belmont’s Spring Garden Faire, Saturday, May 17th at Twin Pines Park, adjacent to Ralston and 6th Avenues in Belmont from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. This fun and information-packed day will prepare you for Spring! Hear environmentally savvy suggestions for your home and business. Be inspired by ideas from local exhibitors and industry experts that will make your Spring gardening and landscaping a success! Come and browse, then take a shuttle ride to the winners of the Beautify Belmont Awards Program along with other notable home and business landscape designs. Vote for your favorite in the garden planter competition on-site. Activities for the kids include a coloring contest and a flower planting station. Play in our jump house. Bring your appetite and check-out our give-aways! It’s a great day for family fun and involvement!

Calendar of Events

 

Date(s):

5/17/2008

Times:

10am – 3pm

Contact:

Parks & Recreation

Telephone:

650-595-7441

Location:

Twin Pines Park

Website:

www.belmont.gov

  

Come to a fun, family friendly event for everyone! Get giveaways and info about getting into spring in your garden and in general ‘going greener’. We all want to make a difference and here are some ways you can! WE have ideas, vendors, expert demonstrations (like solar cooking), garden experts, silent auction for community made planter boxes and much more!

 

Belmont’s April Sales Defy the Odds

↑With Belmont’s April home sales behind us we are able to compute the data and there’s a silver lining to the news. For the first time this year homes sales are up over the same period a year earlier. Admittedly, at 21 sales this month compared to 20 last year in April it’s not a huge increase, but any increase is a welcome event given the current state of the market.

↔The days it took to sell a home was essentially unchanged at 13.

↘Last month, nine homes sold over asking, two sold at asking and 10 homes sold under the asking price—on average for $32,000 less. That compares to last year where 13 homes sold for over their asking price, four sold at asking and only three sold under.

↔Of the sellers that received their asking price all of the homes sold within the first 13 days on the market

↔Though the reported median price fell we feel prices are holding relatively steady–accounting for larger or smaller homes selling in a particular period. The median price dropped from $970,000 in 2007 to $930,000 in April of 2008 but the median size home that sold was 165 square feet larger in 2007. At the current price per square foot, that could account for as much as $94,000 in the differential pushing the true median value in 2008 to $1,024,000.

May is typically a very active month in real estate and it will be interesting to see if this month’s event becomes a trend.

As always, full market reports with interactive graphs for Belmont and adjoining towns will be available on our web site at MorganHomes.com when statistical data is available—usually by the tenth of each month.

April_2008_sales

LEGEND:

↔Unchanged

↑Positive market force

↓Negative market force

↗↙Probable trend upward or downward

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Renters Hit Hard As Prices Climb

You’ve got to admit, renters have had a hard time. After being squeezed out of the homeownership market for years they now face getting squeezed out of the rental market as well.

But more to my point…ever notice that plane crashes come in three’s? Do they, or does the media just report them that way? Ever notice after a plane does crash you hear nothing but planes crashing all day. Are planes suddenly dropping out of the sky in some fit of protest? Hardly.Puzzled

I’ve also noticed a distinct pattern to the San Francisco Chronicle’s Sunday Real Estate section. Each week they organize this section into a theme. Last week’s “theme” was the bad news for renters with headings such as these: “Bay Area rents still rising”, (James Temple, Chronicle Staff Writer, Friday, April 18, 2008), “Apartment rents throughout West still rising”, (MICHAEL LIEDTKE, AP Business Writer, Thursday, April 17, 2008), “A look at apartment rents in western United States”, (The Associated Press, Thursday, April 17, 2008).

The San Francisco Chronicle’s recent reports on the rental market have been rather telling in regards to the overall housing picture. With more buyers unable or unwilling to buy, competing with homeowners thrust back into the rental market due to either voluntarily or involuntarily leaving homeownership, it will be just a matter of time before rising rents and lower home values make owning vs. renting a no brainer. I’ve seen it before and I’m sure I’ll see it again.

But then I read what appeared to be an op-ed piece by Marcie Lewis of Bankrate.com. That headline read “Rental Market Hit by Mortgage Crisis”. I thought I was going to read more of the same—doom and gloom for renters. But the piece ended by stating the opposite of what all the other articles had to offer about the dwindling supply of rental units by saying:

“Other homeowners have opted to rent out their entire home because they’ve relocated, but can’t sell the home for enough money to pay off their debts, which might include a home equity loan or line of credit in addition to a first mortgage. This trend increases the supply of rental housing.” (Lewis 4/2008, p K11)

And…

”Many cities experienced a boom in conversions of apartments into condos, but now, due to lower condo prices, some builders and owners have opted to rent out units they’d intended to sell. This trend also adds to the supply of rentals.” (Lewis 4/2008 , p K11)

So wait a minute; do we have more available rental units or less? I guess they’ll follow up next week with the answer.

Belmont Buyers–Now’s Your Chance

                                                                                                                                            Dsc_3909hallmark_2007Lots of large homes are on the market in Belmont while the inventory of homes for sale is  reaching a high not seen since 2003. Just 22 of the 52 homes for sale are listed under $1,000,000; while the median home currently for sale is just over 2,000 square feet, the median home in Belmont is only 1550 square feet.

And Inventory levels have hit near all time highs. There are currently 52 single family homes on the market and only twice in the last ten years has there ever been more—both times the U.S. was in a business cycle trough—the 2001 recession and again in 2003 during a mid cycle slowdown. We expect inventory level to grow even more in May and June of 2008.

In the past ten years there never has been a month with fewer sales than last month—March 2008 where Belmont had only five sales, except for the month before when there were only four sales. Normally, Belmont will have on average 23 per month; percentage-wise that equals only 18% or normal.

If you’re a Belmont seller and trying to sell during the peak period to obtain the highest price that window of opportunity has already passed. If you are a buyer interested in Belmont, there’s plenty to choose from and we expect favorable buying conditions to continue for at least the next year and probably well into 2010. But timing the market can be a fool’s game. While waiting for home values to drop interest rates may rise, offsetting any monetary gain.

Plenty of buyers have been waiting years for an opportunity such as the current buyer friendly market conditions to purchase a home—well, now’s their chance.

The Numbers Just Don’t Jive with many Buyers’ Sentiment

Buyers have bought one thing–that’s the media’s pounding that home value are falling. Indeed they are in a lot of areas, but if you want to live in San Carlos, CA and are waiting for prices to drop, don’t hold your breath too long.

I recenly did this anaylsis for a client who wondered if their home values have dropped. They bought in an excellent area of San Carlos four years ago and paid the then prevailing purchase price in multiple offers of $885,000 for a three bedroom, two bath home which is approximately 1650 square feet.

The follwoing is my brief analysis for them:

The home which just sold on your street is not a bad comp, but it’s not the best either. Logically it’s the same size, in near proximity and (I suppose) condition, yet it is lacking the very things that attracted throngs of buyers to your house when you bought it—character. People pay dearly for that in San Carlos.

Have the values gone down recently? Everyone believes they have but the numbers do not bear that out. Your home might have sold for more in 2005/2006 but that would probably have to do with the overbid process which has diminished, but not disappeared. Unless you are planning to move soon I’d just hang in there and it will almost certainly be even higher in the next few years.

I have included data going back to 2004 when you purchased your home. I specifically targeted sales comps that were 3 bed 2 baths and between 1500-1600 square feet. I know when you bought your home the seller claimed it was 1650 and it may be (look at your appraisal and you’ll get a better idea), but the county has it at 1540 so that is the range I used for comparison. If your home is indeed larger, than you’ll be in even a better position than my data suggests.

I hope this helps you understand our fickle market.

Some interesting facts:

The median price for comparable homes has been going up since you bought your home. Notice that the exact same size homes sold in 2004 and 2007 making the appreciation data extremely accurate. This data concludes a 26% increase in the median home price from 2004-2007; which if applied to your home’s purchase price would suggest it to be worth $1,115,000. Straight-line appreciation numbers are flawed though in part because the reason homes have gone up in value that much is the typical homeowner will put in excess of $100,000 into their home. Factoring that in, the appreciation levels are almost half so if you’ve done nothing to your home you would be closer to $1,050,000. Don’t even try and follow the numbers exactly because I’m factoring in a slight bump for the intangible “WOW” factor of your home’s appeal.

Median Price

2004

$825,500

2005

$977,000

2006

$996,500

2007

$1,042,000

You purchased your home at $885,000 in March of 2004 when the median price for the 3/2’s was $825,500.

Your home was probably larger than the median home at the time. At 1540 sq. ft. your home sold for $574 per sq. ft. and it was truly 1650 sq. ft. it sold for $536 per square foot. The median at the time was $532 per square foot:

2004

2005

2006

2007

$ per Sq. Ft.

$532

$639

$633

$686

But the median home size was also smaller—smaller homes sell for more per square foot:

2004

1560

2005

1530

2006

1570

2007

1560

Notice how the median price for comparables homes is more-or-less in step with the median appreciation:

Scl_median_graph

In summary, depending on the current condition of your home and the improvements you may have made, your home is probably worth $1,050,000 on the low side to $1,150,000 on the high side.

Belmont’s Nesbit School is Awarded the Coveted California Distinguished School Award

Belmont’s Nesbit School Receives Coveted Distinguished School Award

School_award 

This is the thrid Belmont school to have received awards for their academic excellence.

This year the California Distinguished School award went to Nesbit School for reaching the milestone of overcoming significant academic challenges to be honored as the recipient of the award.

Previous awards went to Central Elementary and Carlmont High School.

Congratulations to Nesbit’s staff, the students and their parents for working together to achieve this lofty goal.

Visit Morganhomes.com for more information on Belmont Schools

April 10th Tax Deadline

April 10th is the last day to pay your property taxes in California for the second installment. Many people wait until the April 10th deadline to pay their property taxes (though they are actually due February 10th) becasue there’s no penalty until after the April deadline.

Taxes

The fiscal year for California property taxes runs from July 1st through June 30th of each year, which is why your property taxes cover those specific dates. There are two payment vouchers, one for the first installment and another for installment number two. Installment number one is collected in arrears in November as it covers the time period from July 1st through the end of the year. This payment is due November 10th and delinquent December 10th of each year.

The second installment is due on February 10th but the tax collector gives you and additional 30 days to make this payment as it is not delinquent until April 10th.

For those trying to get all the airline miles possible, there’s an easy on-line payment option but be aware that a 2.5% surcharge will be applied for this convenience.

IF WE AREN’T ALREADY IN A RECESSION, WE COULD BE SOON

Bad_news A front page article in the Sunday edition of the San Francisco Chronicle titled "Lenders Retreat as Market Plummets" (Sam Zukerman-staff writer April 6, 2008) may frighten some people into cashing their home equity line checks fast.

The article states that many banks such as Bank of America, Country Wide Financial and Washington Mutual are freezing homeowner’s equity lines in fear of losing more money to foreclosures. Let’s hope Wells Fargo continues to believe in the Bay Area like Bank of America used to.

This could spell a downward spiral as lenders cut back on honoring equity lines that might just be the thing which could keep some folks from losing their homes. The opportunity to tap into existing equity to forestall a foreclosure, even just pay the bills may be just the shot in the arm credit worthy people might need yet now many banks appear poised to pull the plug.

Of course bank don’t want people spending their equity line of credit like they used to-especially if home values in their area have dropped significantly; but cutting them off may just send many more of their customers to the front of the foreclosure line.

IF WE AREN’T ALREADY IN A RECESSION, WE COULD BE SOON

This could spell more doom and gloom in the economy as less available cash for spending-or simply knowing that emergency cash flow could be cut, will likely be the nail in the coffin for economic growth this year.

It’s a calculated risk on the part of the banks-at least we hope they have calculated it. They don’t want to throw good money after bad but by freezing equity lines when people need them most they could mean they end up taking back more property than if they left these loans in place.