Prop 13 May Die a Slow Death

Do you remember proposition 13? If you do, you probably own a home, but prop 13 may be dying a slow death, at least for industrial and commercial properties.

THE BACKSTORY: On June 6th, 1978, nearly two-thirds of California’s voters passed Proposition 13, reducing property tax rates on homes, and businesses by about 57%. Proposition 13 forever altered the way property taxes would be levied on real property, or so voters were promised.

Under Proposition 13 tax reform, property tax value was rolled back and frozen at the 1976 assessed value level. Property tax increases on any given property were limited to no more than 2% per year as long as the property was not sold. Once sold, the property was reassessed at 1% of the sale price, and the 2% yearly cap became applicable to future years.

Prior to Proposition 13, the property tax rate throughout California averaged a little less than 3% of market value. Additionally, there were no limits on increases for the tax rate or on individual ad valorem charges. (“Ad valorem” refers to taxes based on the assessed value of property). Some properties were reassessed 50% to 100% in just one year and their owners’ property tax bills increased accordingly.

But change is inevitable, and that’s exactly what proponents of the newly proposed initiative are counting on.

WHAT’S IN STORE: A new ballot initiative that takes aim at how commercial properties are taxed under California’s Proposition 13 could raise $6 to $10 billion more each year for schools and other programs and services, according to a new analysis by the Legislative Analyst’s Office.

At the heart of the initiative, (which is still being reviewed by the state attorney general’s office), is a property tax law enshrined in the state constitution since 1978. Proposition 13 caps taxes for all kinds of properties — residential and commercial — at 1 percent of a property’s purchase price, allowing for increases of no more than 2 percent per year, even if the value of the property triples or quadruples over time.

The initiative would change the constitution so that commercial and industrial properties — and land not intended for housing development — are instead taxed based on their current market value. The idea, long favored by critics of Proposition 13, is often called a “split roll” since it would not affect protections for residential properties. Businesses whose total property holdings are valued below $2 million would be exempt.

Supporters of the ballot initiative include the League of Women Voters, California Calls, PICO California and other civic and community groups.

But that’s not the end it. The California Association of REALTORS wasn’t to put more teeth into the initiative by adding an initiative to the proposition 13 overhaul that changes how those homeowners over 55 can transfer their tax base.

Currently, Proposition 60, enacted into law in 1986, allows for the one-time transfer of your current home’s tax base to a replacement property of equal or lesser value after the age of 55 of either spouse, providing that the replacement property was located within the same county.

The problem for most people wishing to benefit from this tax base transfer is they are limited to moving within the county in which they currently reside, or moving to one of only a handful of reciprocal counties (Alameda, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Ventura, San Mateo, Santa Clara, or El Dorado).

The new proposed initiative tied to proposition 13 amendments would allow homeowners over 55 to carry with them their current tax base whenever, (as many times as they like), and wherever they move—so long as they stay within California.

Proponents of the initiative say it will help free up the housing inventory shortage, as many long-time homeowners are reticent to move if they can’t carry their low tax base. While opponents, such as San Francisco-based YIMBY Action, a pro-development, millennial-led group say that this initiative is just helping the rich get richer—implicit in their argument is that if you own a home, you must be rich.

Thanks to the San Jose Mercury for providing much of the article’s investigative analysis and insight.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario

 

 

 

Belmont Home Sales – October 2010 Where’s the Beef?

With the election behind us and the stock market rallying to the excitement and anticipation of more economic stimulus and legislative gridlock, Belmont’s housing market continues to show signs of what could be viewed as stagnation at its best, or a double dip at its worst.

This October, housing sales for Belmont revealed a slower market and softening prices compared to October 2009.

 October 2010 Belmont4 
 

(Click the picture for a larger image).

SALES

Thirteen home sales—one shy of last year’s 14, would not normally give great cause for consternation—especially since the sample size in Belmont is so small.  However across the board indicators are eluding to a reluctance on the part of buyers to commit to purchasing a home.

 In light of comments like that of John Paulsen who made a fortune betting on the sub-prime market collapse proclaiming “this is the best time to buy a home in fifty years, exclaiming that, "If you don't own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home” clearly job security is the number one reason buyers are waiting before taking on any new debt.

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

The October median home price in Belmont was $864,200 and appears to have dropped only slightly from October 2009 when it was $865,000. Once again though larger homes sold this October. The median size home sold was 2010 square feet as compared to last year when the median size home sold was only 1760 square feet. Put another way, this year you could buy a home 250 square feet larger (14%) for the essentially the same price as last year.

DOM

The average time it took to sell a home in Belmont this October also went up from 38 days last year to 46 this October.

% RECEIVED

Seller’s also enjoyed getting 99.6% of their asking price last year while this October dropped to 98%.

PRICE REDUCTIONS

Six of the 13 sales this year had lowered their price on average $92,000 to attract a buyer while last year only three sellers reduced their asking price for on average $40,000.

This October while three homes sold for on average $29,000 more than their asking, last October six homes sold over asking for on average $23,000.

The last thing any seller wants is to get less than their asking price and this year more sellers were disappointed as nine homes sold for on average $34,000 less compared to last October when only seven homes sold for on average $30,000 less than their asking price.

In October of both years just one home sold at the seller’s asking price.

COMMENTARY

This fourth quarter slowdown in real estate is not all that unexpected. It’s a fairly mild hiccup at this point which may be attributed in part to election jitters but certainly it’s exacerbated by our own government when they announce they are re-visiting the home mortgage deduction. Of course every year some committee wants to reexamine if they could do away with it to be replaced by a flat t tax, but to do so in a year when the government is spending billions of dollars trying to stimulate the economy, and particularly the housing sector, one wonders why they wouldn’t just table any further debates on the home mortgage deduction until after they economy was on track.

Belmont – Home sales for June 2010 in 94002

Belmont June 2010 SALES

Home sales in Belmont held their own as 25 homes sold in the month of June. Last month as you may recall 34 homes sold, the most in as many months. In June of 2009 20 homes sold and last year there wasn't a looming deadline to close escrow for a tax credit.

(click on the graphic for a full size picture)

Speaking of tax credit, don’t forget we’ve effectively extended the $8,000 tax credit by offering any first time buyer 1% of the purchase price as a credit towards their closing costs for anyone who buys a home through us and closes escrow between now and September 30th 2010.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price took another jump up from $848,500 last month to $975,000—a 15% increase. The size homes which sold during the same period were about 10% larger so there was still some upward pressure on prices not just the fact that larger homes were selling.

DOM

The time it took to sell a home in Belmont was up from 25 days last month to 46 days in June; a pattern that more-or-less holds true each year as folks have graduations and vacations on their minds in lieu of house hunting.

INVENTORY

The number of homes for sale has stayed relatively flat at 66 as compared to 60 in May and 62 one year ago. And the number of new listings appears flat too at around 30 each month. As long as sales continue at this pace inventory should remain in check.

With interest rates hitting the lowest point since records were kept it has helped spur refinances and it remains to be seen if it will spur more fist time homebuyer sales. If you are considering buying a home on the peninsula with rates and values at what appear to be the trough, you may want to consider getting that home you’ve always wanted but perhaps held off for until more favorable conditions—they’re here.

Don't forget we update the market statistics for San Mateo County, San Carlos, Redwood City and Redwood Shores each month on our web site at MorganHomes.com.

Belmont, Ca Home Sale Report for February 2010

We’ve been swamped with business this year and with rolling out our new web page to boot we are just now able to settle down and look at February’s homes sale price figures for Belmont. Believe me, we’re dutifully aware that March’s numbers are available soon and we promise to deliver them in a more timely manner.

February stats belmont 2010 

(Click image for a full size picture) 

MEDIAN PRICE

Once again the median price in Belmont was, in practicality, unchanged. Those of you who follow our posts know we endeavor to portray the most accurate market snapshot as possible. In doing so, we not only report the median price statistic as per our MLS system, but we delve deeper to see if larger or smaller homes sold which can dramatically change the results in a small market sample, such as Belmont, which has relatively few sales each month.

Even though the median price dropped from January’s $850,000 to $800,000 in February (5.9%), the size homes which sold were significantly, (8%) smaller.

Year over the year, the median price home sold in Belmont went from $714,500, last February, to today’s February price of $800,000—an increase of 12% with an increase of the size home sold in the two periods of 14%. Viewed from another perspective, the median size home dropped about 2% year over year in the same periods.

DOM

Homes are still staying on the market for a longer than usual time. This February it to 81 days to sell the average home as compared to 78 days last year. The first quarter of the year includes many homes left over from the winter months and we expect this time (DOM) to drop in the spring selling season, as it typically does.

SALES

Ten homes sold this February as compared to just six last year. Of the ten sold, two sold over asking, two sold at their asking price and six sold for less than asking.

In perspective—

The local market continues to be riding a rollercoaster fueled by uncertain feelings on the part of many buyers and sellers. Some buyers are jumping back into the market with both feet and offering sellers thousands of dollars over the asking price for highly desirable properties, and others are sitting on the sideline thinking there could be another double dip.

March’s numbers are due out in a few days which we predict will show more of the same, with the number of sales increasing and the median price continuing its unremarkable recovery.

Super Bowl XLIV brings you Belmont Home Sale Stats for January 2010

Before the Super Bowl XLIV gets started we thought we’d take a look at what happened in Belmont in January 2010.

We’re including two spreadsheets—one for this last January and to help put in perspective, the one from last January.

Most statistics across the country point to January of 2009 as the low point for the real estate market. But what are they saying? The lowest point for sales, median price or what?

Many pundits are saying that home values hit bottom in January of 2009 and in fact in many of the hardest hit areas like Phoenix that may well hold to be true. But for areas that initially fared better, indications are that the price erosion is continuing.

January 2010

Belmont January Blog

January 2009

Belmont Jan 2009

(Clicking on either chart will deliver a larger picture.) 

Looking at these two data samples, it’s easy to see that sales in Belmont are indeed up—way up. January of 2009 was simply dismal with only four sales and reflected that overall uncertainty of the future as buyers chose to sit on the sidelines and wait to see how much more prices will tumble.

SALES

This January’s sales reflect more buyers entering the market and buying homes. In January of 2009 there were 31% more listings available yet sales increased this year by 175%!

What accounted for the huge increase in homes sales? Part of it appears to be the resignation by sellers that they must take less for their homes than they had hoped for a year earlier. Note that all but five homes which sold this January not only had a price reduction but on average all received only 94% of their already reduced price.

MEDIAN PRICE

Most sellers had to lower their initial asking price by $50,000 and then accepted offers another $50,000 less than that. On a median home price of $850,000 that represents a huge disparity between what sellers (or their agents) think their home is worth, and what buyers are willing to pay.

Sales were up indeed but at deeply discounted prices. The Median home price in Belmont was $850, 000 which is about 4.7% less than January of last year. But not only can you get a home for 4.7% less than last January the home you get will be 6% larger. Another way to look at it of course is that prices have really dropped closer to 11% year-over-year.

DOM

Have the price reductions and lower asking prices helped sell homes faster? Just the opposite turns out to be true. The days it takes a seller to seller their home has almost tripled from 42 to 125.

Enjoy the game!

 Data provided from the Mulitple LIsting Service.

The information contained in this blog is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal, real estate or tax advice, nor does it substitute for profesional advice.

Belmont – Market Report for December 2009

It’s official. Belmont’s median home price dropped 9.4% last year from $920,000 in 2009 to $833,827 in 2009.

Belmont Dec 2009

(click on the graph to enlarge)

There’s not much good news in the way of these numbers which would hint that the market is improving anytime soon with the exception of the “months of inventory” (*see below).

There seems to be a pervasive attitude within the real estate community to spin statistics any way possible to portray a happy healthy market but in reality real estate is experiencing some of the most volatile years in our nation’s history. And things are not stabilizing at any appreciable rate; in fact, many indicators point to just the opposite. That doesn’t mean you should no longer consider real estate a viable investment. It just means that you need to go in with eyes wide open. The recent market corrections (and even over corrections as in the case of many areas) has opened up some opportunities which may not be seen again for years.

The government is spending millions of dollars to keep interest rates low and offering tax incentives to spur homeownership. These conditions are temporary and indeed the end of special incentives may mean things get worse before they get significantly better.

Looking at the year-end numbers for Belmont, CA we see several statistics which put in perspective the tumultuous year real estate had in 2009.

The time it takes to sell a home in Belmont increased this year from 39 days in 2008 to 56 in 2009.

The amount a seller received of their asking price dropped from 98% in 2008 to 97% in 2009.

The median sale price dropped 9.4% in 2009.

*Month’s Inventory seems to be one bright spot in a rather dark spreadsheet.

The months of inventory refers to the time it would take to sell the remaining homes listed for sale at the current sales pace. Two major factors in this are how many homes are selling each month and how many new listings are coming on the market. The lower the months inventory the fewer homes there are to choose from and price stability invariably creeps back into the market.

Last December the three month moving average for Belmont stood at 5.47 months and this December that had fallen to only 3.61 months.

There were slightly fewer listings this year (10) and 18 more sales which accounted for this favorable statistic.

Read our next post on the buying opportunity window which is closing fast.

Belmont Market Report–October 2009

Changes to the Belmont home market seemed to have slowed recently.

Belmont October 2009 

(click the graph for a full sized image) Data retreived from the MLS.


 MEDIAN PRICE

In 2008 the median home price stood at $960,000 in the month of October. This year, it has dropped to $865,000.

Once again the numbers are a bit misleading. The size home which sold last year in October was 150 square feet larger. The adjusted median home price for Belmont this year should be $938,000 which would put the median drop at a paltry 2.2% year over year.

DOM

The sellers in Belmont are still receiving around 99% of their asking price, just that they have to ask a little less this year.

SALES

Sales dropped from September but were almost double what they were last year at this time–reflecting more confidence in the market. Of course this number may be influenced by a mad dash of buyers availing themselves of the $8,000 tax credit.

So far 1.2 million buyers have qualified for the $8,000 tax credit. 40% of those said they would not have considered buying a home without it. 70% said it weighed heavily on their decision to purchase e home. Really? All it takes is an $8,000 credit and people are willing to buy a home?

The graph below shows the sales in Belmont for the month of October 2009. Since homes are sometimes relisted, the total days on market and original list price totals can be skewed. We searched the records and reported the actual data—noted by the green dots in the columns. This helps portray a more accurate picture of the time it takes to sell a home and the price a seller receives. Of the 14 sales in October one sold for asking in ten days. Seven sold for less than asking and were on the market an average of 113 days when they received, on average, ~$14,000 less than their LOWERED asking price. The sellers that appropriately priced their home fared much better, receiving on average $2,000 more than their asking price (we defined pricing a home right when it sells within the first month) and sold on average in only 33.5 says. More money, faster sale, one wold think every seller would try to price their home right.

 

Belmont – June 2009 stats

Belmont June 2009

It’s easy to see the numbers for June are much better for sellers than they were in May. Almost all indicators are up signaling a stronger market for sellers in June as compared to last month (click on the chart to see a full size version).

Looking at the same period over last year a similar pattern arises. Almost every indictor is in the seller’s favor.

More homes sold this June and at a faster rate. The percentage the seller received was a healthy 98% of their asking price. The month’s inventory—the time it would take to sell all of the homes currently listed at the current pace of sales—has dropped to a healthy 3.1 months—far below the national average of over 10 months.

Of course there’s one nagging indicator which isn’t easily seen, and certainly not reported by real estate groups or even the media. Although the median price is up in June 4.5% over May, the size home sold in June was a whopping 17% larger. Over the same period last year, the difference is even more staggering. So even though the median price is essentially the same as it was in June of 2008, the size home you get for you money has increased 25%.

What this all means is buyers are getting better deal this year than last.

Why then is the percent the seller received of their asking price higher than it was last year? Probably because sellers are pricing their homes more realistically; and although they are getting closer to their asking price as a percent, in real dollars they are receiving far less.

Looking at San Mateo County as a whole we see the same positive statistics. More sales, higher median price, fewer days on the market and less inventory. What is not available for the entire county is the median size home sold so we really have no idea if the median values are rising, or simply larger homes are selling. We tend to believe it’s the latter.

May-09 Jun-09 Δ from May Jun-08 Δ from '08
Median $840,000 $878,000 $38,000 $877,000 $1,000
DOM 46 25 21 43 18
Month's Inventory 4 3 1 3 0
Sales 14 21 7 20 1
Inventory 62 62 0 61 1
% Received 98% 98% 0.0% 91% 7.00%
Median Size Home 1,710 2000 290 1600 400
Price per Sq. Ft.  $502.00 $493.00 $9.00 $548.00 $55.00

Belmont Real Estate–Values are holding steady.

Anyone trying to understand the wild fluctuations in Belmont’s median home price need look no further than this chart.

We’ve tracked the median home price in Belmont over the last year—ever since the mortgage crises. What we were looking for was the impact it would have on home values. We sure were stunned to see a $200,000 median price increase last December, which lead us to go back and track the median size home selling too; this way, we could adjust for larger or smaller homes selling in a particular month.

Now that we’ve plotted the data, it’s easy to see that the dramatic swings in median value correspond directly to the large fluctuations in the size of the homes sold during a particular month.

Belmont only has 20 or so sales a month—sometimes far less—so just a few larger than average homes selling can really skew the true median price.

(click on the graph for a larger view)

Data retreived from the Multiple Listing Service–ProListing of San Mateo County