The Future of Real Estate is here—Accessory Dwelling Units

Imagine you have an aging family member that you’d like to come live near you—but not with you—or you simply need to generate some additional income. ADUs give homeowners the flexibility to share independent living areas with family members and others, allowing seniors to age in place as they require more care and helping extended families to be near one another while maintaining privacy. 

Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) and Junior Accessory Dwelling Units (JADUs) are an innovative and effective option for adding much needed housing in California and could be an answer for people needing supplemental income, or for housing an elderly family member.

ADUs have been known by many names: granny flats, in-law units, backyard cottages, secondary units and more. 

What is an ADU?

An ADU is a secondary dwelling unit with complete independent living facilities for one or more persons and generally takes three forms: 

·  Detached: The unit is separated from the primary structure 

·  Attached: The unit is attached to the primary structure 

·  Repurposed Existing Space: Space (e.g., master bedroom) within the primary residence is converted into an independent living unit 

·  Junior Accessory Dwelling Units: Similar to repurposed space with various streamlining measures 

What are the benefits of ADUs?

  • ADUs are an affordable type of home to build because they do not require paying for land, major new infrastructure, structured parking, or elevators.
  • ADUs can provide a source of income for homeowners.
  • ADUs allow extended families to be near one another while maintaining privacy.
  • ADUs can provide as much living space as many newly-built apartments and condominiums, and they’re suited well for couples, small families, friends, young people, and seniors.
  • ADUs give homeowners the flexibility to share independent living areas with family members and others, allowing seniors to age in place as they require more care.

What are JADUs?

Junior Accessory Dwelling Units (JADUs) are allowed to be created within the walls of a proposed or existing single-family residence and shall contain no more than 500 square feet. JADUs offer additional housing options. They may share central systems, contain a basic kitchen utilizing small plug-in appliances, may share a bathroom with the primary dwelling, all to reduce development costs. JADUs present no additional stress on utility services or infrastructure because they simply repurpose existing space within the residence and do not expand the dwellings planned occupancy.

 Funding for Homeowners

CalHFA’s ADU Grant Program — The CalHFA ADU Grant Program provides up to $40,000 in assistance to reimburse homeowners for predevelopment costs necessary to build and occupy an ADU.

How do I build and ADU?

There are many companies who are meeting the needs for this niche market. Some ADU’s are built on-site, and others can be delivered and set up—similar to a mobile home but more permanent and modular. 

Here is a link to a handbook for more specific information on ADU’s.

Thanks goes to the California Department of Housing and Urban Development for much of this material.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Housing Market in Crises as a Stand-Off is Looming

Following our local real estate market is a lot more interesting when it’s in a state of flux. Coming out of the Great Recession in 2012, when home selling activity began to pick up dramatically after a five-year hiatus, we finally had some interesting news to report.

Since then the meteoric rise in home values and bidding wars have been the story for the past 10 years, with only minor seasonal fluctuations.

But in April of 2022 that all changed. With a recession looming, and stock portfolios dropping as fast as interest rates are rising, there’s been a sizable shift in real estate activity.

But exactly how have these forces altered the home selling landscape?

The answer is it depends on who you ask. For buyers they are in the arms of a welcome change in the level of competition, but the throes of an unwanted increase in their mortgage payments.

Many sellers on the other hand are suffering from the seven stages of grief, but can’t seem to get past the first stage—denial. No one wants to admit they may have timed the market wrong and missed the home selling peak, instead they’re hanging onto rosier days—ignoring the changing landscape around them. This manifests itself in sellers hiring agents who will tell them their home is worth a price that it used to be, in order to secure a listing, only to have their home languish on the market for months and suffer multiple price reductions to no avail.

To help put the market shift into perspective, in 2021 only two homes were pulled off the market between May and October 1st. During the same period this year, that number rose to 13—a 550% increase in homes which did not sell.

In a recent blog we discussed how buyers who are clinging to the notion that higher interest rates will bring down home values further, could well be making a dangerous miscalculation. The smart move is to jump in with the low competition and purchase a home before rates rise further. As we mentioned in this post, the decrease in home values cannot begin to help buyers when interest rates are rising at a faster pace.

Looking at homes sales for August 2021 as compared to august this year, the forces that have changed the market have had less of an impact than would be expected.

Simply looking at the median home price for all of San Mateo County—and even drilling down to the local level in Belmont—the lack of change seems at odds with what is occurring. This can likely be explained that homes which are priced well are still receiving the attention they deserve. 

Note though that the median price per square foot dropped in both markets, while the size of homes selling rose—meaning that in 2022 you can get a home 8% larger in San Mateo County for the same price as one paid a year ago, and 17% larger in Belmont for essentially the same price.

The lack of new listings—down 27% in San Mateo County and 107% in Belmont, can be attributed for helping to keep the supply and demand levels more in equilibrium—given the diminished demand. We had anticipated this might be the case in a post we did back in April.

… Homeowners who refinanced or buyers who purchased a home when rates were at historic lows—in the 2-3% range, aren’t going to be selling their home and moving anytime soon. Sure, in California they can now carry their low property tax base, but they can’t carry their low interest rate—so many are going to stay put and there will be even less inventory than there has been, and which will once again put upward pressure on housing prices”.

Also, worth taking note of is that while the level of new listings has dropped considerably, the months of inventory—the amount of time it would take to sell the current inventory of homes at the current pace of sales—has also risen.

A real standout in the statistics, that may tell us more than any other single stat, is the percent a seller received of their asking price—down 8% in San Mateo County and 14% in Belmont YOY—indicating that there is far less competition for the fewer number of listings.

For sellers, which way should you turn? Find an agent experienced in uncertain markets will keep you from the dreaded downward spiral of price reductions and delays on the market. Our best advice is don’t be another statistic, get out ahead of the pack and price your home reasonably and in accordance with the actual current market conditions—not what you want them to be.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Possible Higher Home Values and Interest Rates

How to put historical interest rates vs home values into perspective.

It’s hard to predict where internet rates will take home values, but as history has shown, it can be a Fool’s Game to try and play the market. Akin to the depiction in this post, the consequences can be painful.

Take for example Interest rates in August of 1993—they stood at 6.97%. By November of 1994—just 15 months later they were up 2.28% ↑ to 9.25%. How did home prices react to the sharp increase in interest rates? The went up .52% points during the same period—no dramatic dip that made it worthwhile to try and wait out the effects of higher rates.

Here’s a real-world example. Let’s say one bought a $2,000,000 home today with a 4.5% interest rate. A monthly interest payment would be ~$1,000 less each month than if the rates go up to 5.5%. Here’s an on-line calculator to run scenarios.

What does $1,000 a month translate into purchasing power? In the above example, $200,000. Which means that if the rates go up to 5.5%, home values would have to drop in step with that increase 10% for one to just breakeven vs buying now at 4.5%. Why wait for a higher 5.5% rate to put downward pressure on home prices—which as history as shown, there’s no guarantee will happen.

In our observations, being in the sector of tech heavily weighted jobs, wherein many are reliant on stock options for their downpayment, any hit to the financial markets makes it unlikely that buyers will liquidate stocks to buy a home. In our world, that and job security (e.g. Consumer Confidence—which is up recently), has a greater impact on buying activity than interest rates.

______________________________________________________________________________

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 30 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomesand on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

How to Price a Home in the Bay Area or Gamble and Stand to Lose Everything

What you May Not Know About Pricing a Home

Pricing a home in an uncertain market is much harder than it has been in the past few years, where so long as a home was priced low enough, it would garner multiple offers and be bid up to what the current market could bear.

How This Effects Sellers

The reason multiple offers generate over asking bids is obvious—somebody wants to own that home and offering below or at the asking price is a waste of time with other competitive bidders.

But what you may not be aware of, is the discrepancy in the offers received. Frequently we see offers ranging from at the asking price to hundreds of thousands of dollars over asking. What nobody except the seller and their agent knows is that the spread between the highest offer and the second highest bidder is often $100,000 or more apart.

This is exactly why when pricing a home, you want to price it so that multiple bidders will compete, and the winner will have paid too much—more than anyone else was willing to bid. 

In investing it’s referred to as the Great Fool Rule Theory—and it works to a seller’s advantage. This is a study performed at Berkeley where they proved that bidding caused people to overpay. They call it The Bidder’s Curse aka The Winner’s Curse.

Here is an excerpt from their analysis linked above:

“An example that compares closely to our empirical analysis and research design is real estate auctions. Ashenfelter and Genesove (1992) document auctions of 83 condominium apartments in New Jersey, which — when the auction sale unexpectedly fell through — sold at significantly lower prices in face-to-face negotiations. The findings in this paper suggest that the large number of auction participants was a key determinant. It ensured the presence of overbidders.”  The Bidder’s CurseYoung Han Lee Ulrike Malmendier, May 13, 2008

The Rest of The Story

The recent sales we pulled in San Mateo County tell the whole story. We looked at all sales for homes listed after the market changed in April of 2022 to date of this writing, (July 29,2022).

The average days on market was 12, and the sellers received 106% of their asking price—not bad. But looking closer, we broke down the sales further to find a correlation between homes that received under their asking price and those which received over their asking price as compared to how long they were on the market, and the numbers tell the rest of the story.

Pricing a home too high means it will languish on the market, but it also means you will receive far less for your home.

Homes which were priced well, attracted multiple offers, and sold for over the asking price, in on average 9.5 days for 112% over the asking price

Homes which sold right at the asking price, sold on average in 12 days.*

Homes which sold for less than asking, took 21 days to sell, and the seller’s received only 93% of asking.

That represents a whopping 19% difference between a home that languishes on the market and one that sells quickly.

For the median price home in San Mateo County, that 19% deficit represents a loss of $361,000 in real dollars.

Price Reduction Correlation

Homes that sold over the asking price represented 70% of all sales. There were only five of those homes which had price reductions, and all sold over the original asking price once lowered. Our experience tells us that these homes probably received multiple offers after the price reductions which is the only rational explanation as to why they would be bid up beyond what a buyer could have purchased the home for prior to the reduction.

Homes that sold at the asking price represented only 4% of the sales, or 20 homes. (*We excluded another 25 homes that sold at the asking price as they were non-arms’ length transactions—sold off market in zero days).

Homes which sold under the asking price represented 26% of all sales, with 40% enduring price reductions averaging $213,00 in reductions of the asking price.

Pricing Your Home

As we’ve discussed in a prior post, many sellers make the mistake of focusing on two questions. How much do you charge and how much is my home worth—two of the least important questions.

To answer the first question, how much an agent charges may be inconsequential if they are the one able to net you that 19% more—It makes a full commission look paltry in comparison.

The second question of how much your home is worth is equally unimportant to ask your agent. What your agent needs to know is how to price it to attract bidders. What he or she thinks your home will sell for, doesn’t change the outcome of what you will receive. 

Often sellers fall into the confirmation bias trap. They hire an agent based upon the answer to these two questions almost entirely. The agents who tell them what they think their home is worth—or more—that is aligned with their preconceived notions, is the agent they subconsciously tend to be drawn to as they feel a common bond with a like-minded being.

Buying a Listing

This trap is what many agents leverage. Some agents will tell you what your home is worth based solely upon what they think you want to hear—or even higher. It’s called in our industry “Buying a Listing”. Sellers are of course delighted to hear that their home is worth more than they thought. Why? Because the agent told them so? But the agent is not buying their home—they’re just buying the listing—so their opinion is irrelevant and does more harm than good, as we have demonstrated. These agents represent some of the above 26% that promised a high price, and were forced to backtrack and convince the seller to lower the price until the home finally sells.

Failing to properly learn the right questions to ask an agent, is gambling with your biggest asset, and we all know the house will eventually take everything.

Here are a few more good reads if you are considering selling your home:

How to Stop Agents from Behaving Badly at Your Expense

Why Open Houses May Not Ever Have Been Necessary After All

Jeopardizing Multiple Offers

If you’re considering selling your home, contact us for an honest evaluation.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Housing Market Recedes as Buyers Run for Cover

In the last ten years, it has been very difficult for buyers—especially first-time buyers to enter the Bay Area housing market.

Multiple offers drove home prices up and out of the reach of many would-be homeowners.

In the first quarter of 2022 we saw an unprecedented run up in home values, fueled primarily by buyers wishing to purchase a home before interest rate hikes made housing even more unaffordable.

But by mid-April 2022, that influx of furious demand wanned. The light switch that was flipped on by buyers reentering the market in 2012, turning into a dimmer. As interest rates began to rise, and the stock market declined, buyers started to pull back.

This has significantly cooled the superheated Real estate market in the Bay Area.

With tech companies announcing layoffs, this cool-down will result in home values receding.

This is what savvy buyers have been waiting for. Less competition means fewer multiple offers and lower purchase prices.

The biggest mistake we have seen in our over 30 years in this industry, is Buyers waiting too long to get back into the market after a period of uncertainty.

The downturn in 2007 is an example worth evaluating. The market began its decline in 2007, and essentially leveled off by 2009. Yet it took many buyers until 2012 to reenter the housing market. By then it was too late. Multiple offers became the norm and remained so until just this April. Buyers who carved their own path and bought homes in 2009-20011 came out far ahead of the pack.

Higher Interest Rates

Higher interest rates will of course affect the ability to borrow money and lower purchasing power. But as we discussed in this post, playing the field with interest rates is a fool’s game.

Interest rates are still at a 40-year average low. Buying a home now, even with higher rates than one could have obtained a year ago, protects the homeowner from future increases in rates. If they go up, the buyer has already lock in a rate, if they go down, which we suspect they will not, one could always refinance at a lower rate.

Making a Move

There are opportunities that arise in uncertain markets. Investors that remain paralyzed and want to wait until the masses renter the market giving them comfort in their buying decisions, will find themselves in company with thousands of other buyers who will all renter the market at the same time−turning the light switch of multiple offers back on.

The Answer

Finding balance is key to making smart home buying decisions. If buyers wait until the housing markets and economy reach perfect stabilization, it will be too late to take advantage of opportunities. Job stability should be the number one driving factor in a buyer’s decision to purchase a home in a slow housing market—not interest rates of where on the curve home values lie.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Shift in Housing Market Scares Young Buyers Away

The Interest Rate Hike Effect

In Belmont, the sales statistics for May 2022 show that the inventory of homes has grown to one month of inventory, while this past January it stood at .3 months. To help put that into perspective, during the downturn in 2009, the months of available inventory in Belmont sat at 10.

While some homes are still selling over the asking price, they are on average receiving 10% less over asking than in Q1.

Some of these anomalies are seasonal, and as such, with May being a month that is affected by seasonality in home sales, some of what the market is experiencing is seasonal and normal.

The most recent sales in Belmont are for far less than the sales in January-April. That is of course when the February interest rate hikes really kicked in, coinciding with the stock market taking a hit.

Since many Bay Area buyers are tech workers, whose compensation is augmented to a high degree with stock options, when the stocks are high, buyers are more bullish and can compete in the home bidding process by liquidating more stocks. Conversely, when the stock market takes a hit, buyers not only have less capital to work with, but they also tend to sit back and wait for the market to stabilize before liquidating their holdings.

Where We Stand Today

This graph illustrates the rapid rise in the 30-year mortgage rate this year. We suspect that much of the overzealous bidding that occurred in the first quarter of 2022 was due to buyers’ knowledge that rates were scheduled to rise, and their desire to take advantage of lower rates while they could—even if that meant overpaying in a bidding war for a home.

The S&P 500 and home values seem inextricably connected. One can see in this graph the rise and decline during that same Q1 period that buoyed purchasing power and is now waning.

As seen in this graph for all sales in San Mateo County, Condominium values take a hit first. We attribute this to two factors. The first being that condominiums tend to be akin to a commodity. Many are similar if not nearly identical. There are of course varying degrees of upgrades, whether one has an end or upper floor unit, the location within the complex, but overall, the differentiating factor in a market with growing inventory, comes down to price.

The secondary factor is that as prices and competition for single family homes fall, condominium owners have an opportunity to make a move into a stand-alone home, while buyers who were just shy of being able to purchase a home, and would have bought a condo, now turn to owning a home with a yard.

What is Different Now

What has changed is that with fewer buyers in the market, and less competition, they can be choosier. While it’s still too early to call it a buyer’s market across the board, certain sectors such as the condominium market and cities, and even neighborhood within cities that are less desirable, are most affected.

This means that not every home will sell—at least like they did in the past. Homes will have to be spruced up, staged, show well, and most likely be vacant to garner the level of excitement necessary to captivate the dwindling pool of buyers, so as not to take an inordinate hit on the sale price.

For the typical three-bedroom home, looking at the sales in Belmont, between March and April the seller’s enjoyed a list to sales price ratio of 119%. Since April that has dropped 11% to 108%. With the median home price still hovering around $2,400,000, that represents a $250,000 decrease in overbidding per home.

Is this a Correction?

We don’t see it so much as a correction, but rather the market simply returning to pre hysteria bidding. Interest rate increases along with poor stock portfolio performance has dampened the buying environment—for now. We wrote a previous piece on the monetary effect of rising interest rates and home purchasing power.

Gaining Some Perspective

Buyers are in shock because for the past 20 years, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 3.035%. They never knew rates prior to that 20-year period when between 1980 and 2000 they averaged 10.3%. And the average 30 mortgage rate since 1971 when interest rates were tracked, is 7.7%. Buyers who have never even heard of an interest rate over 4% will acclimate and become accustomed to the new norm, and life will go on. Longer term homeowners who have lived through the interest rate roller coaster ride, will be less effected emotionally, and probably move forward with life’s plans accordingly.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Bay Area Housing Market on Precipice of Unpredictable Change

One would think that predicting the seasonal course in our local housing market wouldn’t be that hard, right? What makes people decide whether now is the time to buy or wait on the sidelines? We’re not sure exactly what one thing it is, or if it even is one thing at all. More likely it’s a mix of factors that plays into their emotions, but one thing is in common—when buyers pull back, they almost all do it in sync—almost like the young, amateur traders transforming markets.

The Pandemic Changed the Norms

Prior to the Pandemic we took great pride in prognosticating seasonal real estate cycles by examining past performance of the market at various times of the year and during various cyclical events. Take for example election years. Whether it’s a presidential election year that stands to be decisive, such as Trump v. Biden, or even a less momentous mid-term election, we were pretty much guaranteed to realize a buyer pull-back from late September through mid-November. That was just one of the expectations that we had to throw out the window in 2020.

Of course, the stock market swinging wildly sets people off, and any hint of tech companies laying people off sends the pool of buyers into hibernation.

We had a lot of variables stacking up signaling buyers may take a siesta from house hunting during the Pandemic while jobs, the economy, really the entire future was in unchartered waters, but instead buyers came out in droves snapping up everything and anything so long as it had a yard—go figure. While in hindsight we can see the motivations for many of these first-time buyers jumping into the market—working from home while home-schooling two children in a 900 square foot apartment with not even a yard for sustenance is enough to get any procrastinator off the fence, though we certainly wouldn’t have bet on it.

We started this year with unemployment moderating, but inflation gathering steam, the “R” word entering economists’ vocabulary again, and threats of war in Ukraine which stood to further impact prices. Yet in Q1 we saw one of the biggest bull runs in the housing market we’ve seen in years.

While the median home price in San Mateo County went up 7% between Q1 of 2021 and Q1 of 2022, in Belmont the increase in those two periods was 28%.

So, what’s in store for Q2? Where is the market headed now as the landscape changes?

Even the mention of possible interest rate hikes tends to knock a lot of buyers off of the fence as they finally realize that the luxury they had to purchase a home “whenever”, knowing the rates would always be low, may be coming to a close. It’s odd too, as rates were nearly as high in 2019 and nobody seemed to care.

But this is different. Rate hikes are scheduled for this year and even though the Federal Reserve rate doesn’t automatically correlate to a hike in Mortgage rates, the markets take advantage of it to raise mortgage rates, and profits.

We didn’t so much as predict what would happen when the government artificially kept mortgage rates low after the Great Recession housing debacle in 2007, it was more akin to watching a plane crash from the sky. You don’t have to see it hit the ground to know what will happen.  So, what IS happening that we knew would be inescapable? Homeowners who refinanced or buyers who purchased a home when rates were at historic lows—in the 2-3% range, aren’t going to be selling their home and moving anytime soon. Sure, in California they can now carry their low property tax base, but they can’t carry their low interest rate—so many are going to stay put and there will be even less inventory than there has been, and which will once again put upward pressure on housing prices. 

However, the current rise in interest rates will have a mitigating effect on any upward pressure on home prices. 

The current rates for mortgages that went from 2.5% to 5.2% now makes the monthly mortgage payment on a median price home in Belmont go up more than $4,000 a month, which is a 33% increase. Effectively, that means a buyer’s purchasing power just dropped by 

~ $650,000.

What we cannot predict is the outcome of how the collision of these two contrasting forces will end.

The short of it is we don’t know what buyers will do going forward. Will they wait for a while to see if rates come back down, or jump in before they go higher? Or, will they jump in anyway while others are sidelined and refinance later? Will it put a cap on over bidding? Will higher interest rates dissuade homeowners from selling even if it’s to downsize, to keep a lower payment/interest rate? Will that be enough to throttle back inventory further to mitigate the impact of fewer buyers in the market?

On a micro scale, we have seen a recent slowdown in heightened level of enthusiastic home buying activity in the last few weeks, but then again we see that every year near tax time, Easter and Spring breaks—stay tuned.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

How to Stop Agents from Behaving Badly at Your Expense

If you’re considering selling your home, you’ve probably also been thinking about how to go about finding the right real estate agent to help.

Choosing precisely the right real estate representation makes a bigger difference than you might ever imagine. So where does one begin?

DEFINING A TOP AGENT

REALTORS banter around the term “Top Agent” quite loosely—Top 1%, Top 10%, etc. They earn that title for dollar volume in sales—not any independent measurement of the quality of their work or survey from past clients. In the Bay Area, most agents surpass any threshold for earning the Top award distinction due to the median sales prices—not the they are any better than their colleagues in Kansas who need to sell 10 times the number of homes to garner that distinction.

Discard any idea of using on-line companies that recommend agents or say they will “find” you a perfect match. These are nothing more than companies extorting money from agents to be in their directory. They are not recommending the best agents, but rather the ones willing to pay to be recommended.

YELP tends to do the same thing. Although the reviews are organic in nature, agents must pay to be listed at the top of the search, even though they are often far from top agents.

Agents with the most listings or yard signs in a neighborhood are also not necessarily the agent doing the best job, they’re just getting the most attention.

Doing a native on-line search is more time consuming, but it will yield you the best results. Search for local agents that have been in the business long enough to have learned the ropes at someone else’s expense. Any real training of agents happens in the field, not the classroom. Look for examples of their work product on their own web sites—video tours, photos, and descriptive informational pieces.

THE MEET

Once you’ve found an agent you’d like to meet with, reach out and set up an initial meeting. Don’t call three of four agents all at once. It takes hours to prepare for a meeting and you’re wasting agents’ valuable time.

If you’re not happy with the first agent you meet, by all means contact another.

No two REALTORS are the same and each one acts essentially as their own independent contractor. They develop a business plan on their own and so you’re really hiring the agent, not the company they work for.

Are their differences in the companies’ agents work for? Sure, but far less important than the agents you’re hiring.  Most agents will focus on how big (or small) their company is—how much “market share” and how much “technology” they have but how does that really benefit you?

The fact is most agents are capable of selling your home in this seller’s market, but the service they offer and the attention to detail and marketing varies greatly.

With that invariably comes differing degrees of success and results.

SELECTING AN AGENT—WHAT QUESTIONS TO ASK

These are the questions most sellers are prepared to ask:

  • How much do you charge?
  • What do you think my home is worth?

More detailed sellers might throw in a few more:

  • How long have you been in business?
  • In what cities do you specialize?
  • Do you work with mostly sellers, or buyers?
  • Do you have referrals with whom we may speak?

And that’s pretty much the extent of most sellers’ questions. The two which paradoxically seem to carry the most weight are two sellers always ask—how much is my home worth and what do you charge. These are two very important questions, but they should have little to do with choosing an agent. You can always find a discount agent to sell your home and you will most certainly get cut rate service and results as well.

The price the agent tells you your home is worth should also have little to do with whether you hire them. You get to pick the asking price for your home and if you’ve watched sales in your neighborhood, you probably have a pretty good idea at what price homes are selling.

Be careful not to decide on your agent based solely on the highest estimated sale price you hear, since that agent may not know your market or could be trying to “buy” your listing—meaning they are trying to get you to list with them under the pretense that they can magically get more for your home just by asking for it. Unfortunately, it just doesn’t work that way.

Buyers choose the price they are willing to pay for your home—not you as a seller or your agent!

We’ve heard sellers say, “We’re going to hire the REALTOR that sold our friends house—they said that they liked him and felt that he did a good job.”

And perhaps they did do a good job, but then again maybe the seller just thought because they received multiple offers well over the asking price that they must have done a good job. But could they have done better? 

THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION

Results. Before you’d consider having any important surgery done, wouldn’t you like to know what your Doctor’s survival rate is for his patients? How many operations has she performed? How much they charge would probably be the least of your concerns, so long as you survive to pay the bill.

Wouldn’t it be nice before booking a flight to know how long the pilot has been flying and how many hours they’ve logged?

Any agent can proclaim to be the best, or sell their listings for more in a shorter period of time, but you need to ask for proof. 

IT DOESN’T GET UGLIER THAN THIS

These sellers probably thought their agent did a good job as well. After all, they received $126,000 over asking!

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When the sellers hired these agents, they no doubt never expected this shoddy work product would be what they received—and we can all but guarantee that it’s not what was promised.

This is what is referred to as a Moral Hazard—wherein under the contractual protection of a listing agreement an agent takes advantage of their client—promising one thing and doing another.

But as bad as the photo of the home on its side may be, the agents went on to boast in the private comments (in red) to all agents, that had they waited to hear offers, they would have received three more—and one back-up offer was for $25,000 more than the early offer they may have steered their seller into accepting. To add insult to injury, when they went back into the listing to amend the comments with self-aggrandized accolades once it closed, they still never took the time to fix the photo. So great job Dino!

This may be a gross example of agents taking advantage of a seller, but many agents are guilty of taking the path of least resistance, (e.g. work), to get paid.

We can’t count how many times we’ve represented a buyer, delivered an offer only to receive a call late at night that the seller accepted a different offer. Many times, if the agent had reached out to us, our buyers would have stepped up in price and the seller would have received even more for their home.

We often download disclosures for our buyers which is an indication that we have a very interested party. An offer date is set and we rarely if ever receive a call from the listing agents asking if our buyers are interested in making an offer, and if not, why.

BROKER TOUR, OPEN HOUSES & ADVERSE SELECTION

Agents will probably tell you that they will hold open your home for all agents to view on a special day referred to as “Broker Tour Day”. They may even tell you that they will serve food to attract the masses. And unless you ask if they will be present—they usually won’t. Agent Teams that have someone different for every aspect of the job are especially guilty of this. Many times, they don’t even go that far—they have a vendor such as a mortgage company hold open the home so they don’t have to bother being present. Other times we’ve seen the “Catered Broker Tour Lunch” promised to the seller relegated to a tray of stale sandwiches on a counter with the agent nowhere to be found. Being present at an open house is critical to answer other agents’ questions about the home. 

Unfortunately, these breaches in moral behavior are more common than not.

YOU CAN DO BETTER

Do your homework. Research agents organically on-line to see what work product they are capable of and delivering. Then, be armed with the best questions most agents are ill prepared to answer.

If you’re interested in receiving a list of questions every seller should be asking, we’d be glad to deliver 35 of the best questions when we meet in-person for our initial visit.

Here’s a preview…

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Zillow’s Inaccurate Zestimates May be Blamed for Zillow’s Own Financial Woes and Cancelling their iBuyer Program

How accurate are Zillow’s Zestimates? As it turns out, Zillow’s CEO seems to have lost faith in his companies own ability to assess home values.

Company founder and CEO Rich Barton added in his report [to investors] that “we’ve determined the unpredictability in forecasting home prices far exceeds what we anticipated and continuing to scale Zillow Offers would result in too much earnings and balance-sheet volatility.”

Rich Barton

During an earnings call with investors, Barton ultimately concluded that Zillow has been unable to accurately price homes for future sales.

Our observed error rate has been far more volatile than we thought possible,” Barton said during the call. He later added that “fundamentally we have been unable to predict future pricing of homes to a level of accuracy that makes this a safe business to be in.”

As REALTORS®, a common issue arises when representing sellers or buyers is the Zestimate®️they sometimes rely upon to determine value for the property in question.

Invariably, we spend an inordinate amount of time explaining to our buyers and sellers that the Zestimate they see on-line has very little to do with the actual market value of a home.

The problem with Zillow’s algorithm is that while it can compare the size and age of a home using public records, location and lot size, it has an impossible task of sourcing sufficient details of a home for an accurate valuation.

For example, Zillow has no way of knowing if the homes being compared have been recently updated, and if so with what quality of materials.

Are the lots these homes sit upon all the same insofar as usability? A level ¼ acre lot is worth far more than a steep ½ acre lot but Zillow’s algorithm has no access to these important details, and it can’t differentiate between the two.

To sum it up, we tell our clients, “Zillow has never been to your home, or seen the inside. They can’t possibly know what your home is really worth—but it’s a fun app”.

The sad news is Zillow has taken down their own work force by their assumption they could use their quantitative analysis to predict home values.

The report ultimately states that Zillow plans “to wind down Zillow Offers, the company’s iBuying service in which Zillow acts as the primary purchaser and seller of homes.” CEO Rich Barton went on to say that the move should take several quarters and will also result in Zillow reducing its workforce by approximately 25 percent, according to a report Tuesday. 

Quote Source: Imnan Real Estate News

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine are ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/Morganhomes and on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/morganhomes

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.