"Some 60% of the 109 economists and other analysts surveyed by MacroMarkets LLC expect home prices to decline this year, up from 40% in May."
via online.wsj.com
I found this amusing. If their numbers are right, at 66% the economists are no better than the Supreme Court Justices at arriving at a consensus, and probably no more accurate than our local weather announcer when they do.
SALES
Home sales in Belmont held their own as 25 homes sold in the month of June. Last month as you may recall 34 homes sold, the most in as many months. In June of 2009 20 homes sold and last year there wasn't a looming deadline to close escrow for a tax credit.
(click on the graphic for a full size picture)
Speaking of tax credit, don’t forget we’ve effectively extended the $8,000 tax credit by offering any first time buyer 1% of the purchase price as a credit towards their closing costs for anyone who buys a home through us and closes escrow between now and September 30th 2010.
MEDIAN PRICE
The median price took another jump up from $848,500 last month to $975,000—a 15% increase. The size homes which sold during the same period were about 10% larger so there was still some upward pressure on prices not just the fact that larger homes were selling.
DOM
The time it took to sell a home in Belmont was up from 25 days last month to 46 days in June; a pattern that more-or-less holds true each year as folks have graduations and vacations on their minds in lieu of house hunting.
INVENTORY
The number of homes for sale has stayed relatively flat at 66 as compared to 60 in May and 62 one year ago. And the number of new listings appears flat too at around 30 each month. As long as sales continue at this pace inventory should remain in check.
With interest rates hitting the lowest point since records were kept it has helped spur refinances and it remains to be seen if it will spur more fist time homebuyer sales. If you are considering buying a home on the peninsula with rates and values at what appear to be the trough, you may want to consider getting that home you’ve always wanted but perhaps held off for until more favorable conditions—they’re here.
Don't forget we update the market statistics for San Mateo County, San Carlos, Redwood City and Redwood Shores each month on our web site at MorganHomes.com.
Missed out on the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit?
You'll be glad to know you can still receive $8,000 when you buy your first home through us.
How do we do it? Simple. If you buy a home through us between now and September 30th, 2010 we will credit you 1% of the purchase price up to $8,000 in escrow for your closing costs.
What's the difference between our credit and the government tax credit?
Well for starters you won't have to wait until next year's tax filing to get the refund-we credit it to you at closing so you can really put it to work.*
Call us for details.
Drew & Christine Morgan
"Helping People Make Good Decisions"sm
Carlmont Associates
1940 Ralston Ave.
Belmont, CA 94002
01124318 & 01174047
Office: 650-508-1441
Fax: 650-591-4329
*Some restrictions apply.
What’s the big brouhaha about yet another extension of the $8,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers? Senator Harry Reid wants home buyers to have until September 30, 2010 to close escrow and receive the $8,000 tax credit. But before you go out and celebrate, understand that the only buyers this extension will help are people who already were in contract to buy a home by the April 30th deadline. The proposed extension would allow only those buyers to have until September 30th to close escrow rather than the looming deadline of June 30th. Senators Johnny Isakson, R-GA, and Christopher Dodd, D-CT, are joining Senator Reid in support of the amendment. And why not? It’s a good political move and even Senators who said they would never vote for another extension will feel pressured in an election year to get behind this move.
Will it help? Sure, in a few cases where there are delays in the closing of escrow where banks may be overwhelmed or dragging their feet on short sales or where buyers are simply not able to close soon enough.
But don’t look to the government to shore up the housing industry anymore for awhile. The housing market is like a bird flying the nest…at some point you have to find your own wings.
Belmont “hit one out of the park†last month as 34 homes closed escrow. One has to go back to May of 2002 to see activity like that. Of course unlike baseball all the “teams†did relatively well as the last minute rush to capitalize on the $8,000 government tax credit lured at lot of new buyers to the closing tables.
But there’s sort of this snowball effect because many of the homes sold in Belmont didn’t even qualify for the $8,000 tax credit. Only 12 of the 34 homes had sale prices below the $800,000 cap. Yet the attention the tax credit received in the media probably buoyed the confidence of fence sitting buyers.
(Click on the chart of a full sized window)
MEDIAN PRICE
$848,800—Homeowners are you depressed? It was $967,500 just one month ago! Think back—last year in May the median home in Belmont sold for $840,000 and for that you got an 1845 square foot home. This May you got a 1710 square foot home and in April it was 2418 but lest we not forget it cost you $967,500. The change in square foot may be a better indicator of value—here’s why: The change in square feet between May ‘09 and May 2010 was 135 (7.3%) which is probably closer to where values dropped year over year. Forget about April’s $967,500 benchmark for the year—there were some big homes selling that month and it threw the numbers way off.
DOM
The Days on Market (or the time it took to sell a home) went from 45 last May, to 44 this April and only 26 this May. So homes sold faster. What does that mean? Sellers are getting more realistic about prices and more buyers entered the market. That’s about all those tea leaves are telling you.
% Received of asking
Sellers in Belmont received 99% of their asking price (after price reductions). This is kind of a worthless statistic since homes invariably will sell close to asking once they are lowered to the right asking price. How about if we were to look at last May (98%) and last month (99%) see—statistically no change. Now let’s look at what seller received before they lowered their price—what percent did they get of their original asking price? Turns out at 99.84% it tells us very little accept that not a lot of bargaining goes on in our market. What we do learn is that only 4 people had to lower their asking price to get a sale—the reason for the small differential. But if we look at sellers who accepted less than their asking price we see a different story. Fifteen of the 34 sales received on average $26,000 less for their home while three homes received their asking price, the other 16 sellers received on average $21,000 over their asking price.
Now that the tax credit is over will the flurry of home sale activity be akin to radio silence? Stay tuned for our June update.
Just to bring you up to speed on the Bay Area housing market, we’re bringing to your attention a neat little gadget that allows you to see where values are relative to a prior point in time.
The chart we’ve included is based upon data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s web site for the San Francisco MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area), but you can plug in the area where you live and even compare cities.
You’ve no doubt heard of the Case-Shiller report that uses repeat sales pairs to track the median home value more accurately. Essentially they track the same house selling over a period of years. Their methodology can be read here.
Well the U.S. government also tracks repeat home sales pairs to help Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae follow the markets across the country. On their web page they have this really neat calculator where you can input what you paid for a home and it will calculate what the home should be worth today based upon the median trend.
Note for the San Francisco MSA which incorporates San Francisco down to Redwood City we’re beginning to see a leveling off of the free fall that has befell the Bay Area since June of 2006.
We expect seasonal buying and selling trends to continue to vary home prices on a monthly basis but the overall median home price trend will no doubt be relatively flat for several more years to come. Jobs will drive the housing prices in the future, and we’re still running in double digit (11%) unemployment rates in the Bay Area.
Sellers—if you are going to try and wait for prices to dramatically rise you should be prepared to sit in your home for quite a few more years. In others words, if you want to move on in life, now’s as good a time as you’ll see for awhile.
Buyers—since values will probably be flat there’s no reason to rush out and buy a home if you are worrying about missing the bottom, but remember, if interest rates rise your monthly payment will go up dramatically.
Now for the inevitable disclaimer: The information contained in this newsletter is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.
Top of Form
There are many positive indicators in Belmont’s housing market from just a year ago. This data is from the MLS from April 2010, when the government tax rebate was still being offered. That said, only two of the 14 sales in April could have potentially qualified for the rebate since it was capped at a sale price of $800,000.
Below, we’ve added a new feature–a short summary of the homes which sold. We think this may help you gleam more information than just the address.
Wrap-Up Belmont Housing Market Review April 2010
Sales
Sales year over year for the month of April were almost unchanged at 14 for this year as compare to 13 last April.
Median Price
The median price jumped from $810,000 last April to $967,500 (19%) but the size home which sold in the two periods was also exactly 19% larger which effectively wipes out any real gain—but it looks good in the media.
Days on the Market
The time it took to sell a home dropped from 64 last year to only 44 this year.
Percent Received
Of course when homes sell faster that usually means the market is a bit stronger and we’d expect to see that this April 4 homes sold over asking, 1 at asking and 8 under asking as opposed to last year when none sold over, 4 sold right at asking and 9 sold for less—on average receiving 96.3% of their asking price last year compared to 99% this year.
Summary
It will be interesting to see what impact the end of the tax credit may have on real estate. We’ve already pointed out that it really shouldn’t impact Belmont that much however, if the media gets wind of sales dropping off in the coming months, you may see a pull-back on the part of buyers. The frenzied pace of the last few months caught on like a bad virus leading many to start bidding homes right back up again playing sort of a game of “musical chairs†to see who could get a home before the money ran out. All of which may slow back down—we’ll see…
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Bottom of Form
Case-Shiller released their report on repeat sales pairs for the 20 major MSA’s (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) across the country. San Francisco faired rather well, climbing 11.9% over last year in February. Phoenix lost another 1.64% but faired far better than Tampa Bay, which sank another 6% over last year.
No doubt many of these areas saw sales figures buoyed by the Federal Tax stimulus plan that rebates first time home buyers up to $8,000 and resale buyers up to $6,500. Additionally, the shifting of the majority of sales from lower priced homes to a more even mix has helped raise the median price point substantially.
There’s a lot of misinformation about the federal and California state tax credits which expire soon. This short article from the California Association of Realtors sums up the unique opportunity to qualify for the federal and state tax credit and get up to $18,000 in rebates.
BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
$18,000 IN COMBINED HOMEBUYER TAX CREDITS FOR A LIMITED TIME
Californians have a brief window of opportunity to receive up to $18,000 in combined federal and state homebuyer tax credits. To take advantage of both tax credits, a first-time homebuyer must enter into a purchase contract for a principal residence before May 1, 2010, and close escrow between May 1, 2010 and June 30, 2010, inclusive. Buyers who are not first-time homebuyers may use the same timeframes to receive up to $16,500 in combined tax credits if they are long-time residents of their existing homes as permitted under federal law, and they purchase properties that have never been previously occupied as provided under California law.
Under the federal law slated to soon expire, a first-time homebuyer may receive up to $8,000 in tax credits, and a long-time resident may receive up to $6,500, for certain purchase contracts entered into by April 30, 2010 that close escrow by June 30, 2010. Additionally, under a newly enacted California law, a homebuyer may receive up to $10,000 in tax credits as a first-time homebuyer or buyer of a property that has never been occupied. The new California law applies to certain purchases that close escrow on or after May 1, 2010 (see Cal. Rev. & Tax Code section 17059.1(a)(4)). California law generally allows buyers of never-occupied properties to reserve their credits before closing escrow, but buyers seeking to combine the federal and state tax credits will not be able to satisfy the timing requirements for such reservations (see Cal. Rev. & Tax Code section 17059.1(c)(1)(A)). Other terms and restrictions apply to both tax credits.
For more information, C.A.R. offers a Homebuyer Tax Credit Chart with a side-by-side summary of the federal and California laws. C.A.R. also offers a legal article entitled Homebuyer Tax Credit Update.
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Belmont had an interesting month this March.
The big news—which shouldn’t be news at all—is that the median price of homes in Belmont shot up 24% from $800,000 last month to $994,750 in March. Alas the size home also shot up 43% which more than negates any increase in the real median price of homes.
(Click on the spreadsheet for a full size image)
That said, other factors are showing indication of a more robust sellers market than in previous months.
Not to be overlooked is the home on Bayview which listed for $688,000 and sold for $914,500—a whopping 133% of the asking price. Of course the home had many multiple offers and many which bid far above the original asking price—apparently grossly underpriced.
That’s only $390/square foot with the average Belmont home selling at $417. If this home had sold at what the agent had listed it fo,r it would have sold for $294/square foot a ridiculously low amount.
The time it took to sell a home was down a little bit form 81 days in February to 76 in March.
SALES
The exact same (ten) number of homes sold in March which was down from 13 a year ago. That’s a bit of a surprise since the market should be getting better. Our take on this is that in January and February of 2009 sales were so low—a combined ten for the two months—that in March of 2009 there were was a slight pent-up demand caused by the slow start to the year, increasing March’s sales figures.
Four homes sold under asking again and on average each took around a $50,000 price reduction. Three of those had to accept an even lower price of on average $40,000 more from where they had already lowered the price.
PERSPECTIVE
Watch for rate hikes to initially spur home sales as buyers scramble like musical chairs to get into a home before the rates start to climb. The Fed has halted its purchasing of mortgage backed notes which means it up to the public appetite for these investments to set the pace and the rates. If rates climb too much too fast, watch for homes sales to drop off and values to continue to dip.
