70 State Parks Slated to Close in California

The What:

Governor Jerry Brown announced today the closing of 70 State parks in California. Ba-stateparks08__0502926571_part6

Voters had a chance to save the parks back in November when proposition 21 was on the state ballot.

It would have imposed an $18 vehicle registration fee to provide a windfall of cash for ailing parks. The measure would have provided for $500 million a year as a new permanent funding source for parks, protected from the year-to-year roller coaster of the state’s general fund.

But voters gave the measure a strong thumbs-down.

It failed 58 to 42 percent, winning in only 10 of California’s 58 counties, nearly all of them in the Bay Area.

The Where:

So what parks will be closing?

  • Anderson Marsh SHP
  • Annadel SP
  • Antelope Valley Indian Museum
  • Austin Creek SRA
  • Bale Grist Mill SHP
  • Benbow Lake SRA
  • Benicia Capitol SHP
  • Benicia SRA
  • Bidwell Mansion SHP
  • Bothe-Napa Valley SP
  • Brannan Island SRA
  • California Mining & Mineral Museum
  • Candlestick Point SRA
  • Castle Crags SP
  • Castle Rock SP
  • China Camp SP
  • Colusa-Sacramento River SRA
  • Del Norte Coast Redwoods SP
  • Fort Humboldt SHP
  • Fort Tejon SHP
  • Garrapata SP
  • George J. Hatfield SRA
  • Governor’s Mansion SHP
  • Gray Whale Cove SB
  • Greenwood  SB
  • Grizzly Creek Redwoods SP
  • Hendy Woods SP
  • Henry W. Coe SP
  • Jack London SHP
  • Jug Handle SNR
  • Leland Stanford Mansion SHP
  • Limekiln SP
  • Los Encinos SHP
  • Malakoff Diggins SHP
  • Manchester SP
  • McConnell SRA
  • McGrath SB
  • Mono Lake Tufa SNR
  • Morro Strand SB
  • Moss Landing SB
  • Olompali SHP
  • Palomar Mountain SP
  • Petaluma Adobe SHP
  • Picacho SRA
  • Pio Pico SHP
  • Plumas-Eureka SP
  • Point Cabrillo Light Station
  • Portola Redwoods SP
  • Providence Mountains SRA
  • Railtown 1897 SHP
  • Russian Gulch SP
  • Saddleback Butte SP
  • Salton Sea SRA
  • Samuel P. Taylor SP
  • San Pasqual Battlefield SHP
  • Santa Cruz Mission SHP
  • Santa Susana Pass SHP
  • Shasta SHP
  • South Yuba River SP
  • Standish-Hickey SRA
  • Sugarloaf Ridge SP
  • Tomales Bay SP
  • Tule Elk SNR
  • Turlock Lake SRA
  • Twin Lakes SB
  • Weaverville Joss House SHP
  • Westport-Union Landing SB
  • William B. Ide Adobe SHP
  • Woodson Bridge SRA
  • Zmudowski SB

The When:

Expect the closures to begin in September, with all 70 closings completed by July 2012.

Today’s Mystery QR Code

What is a QR code?

Wikipedia defines it as: "A QR code (short for Quick Response) is a specific matrix barcode (or two-dimensional code), readable by dedicated QR barcode readers and camera phones. The code consists of black modules arranged in a square pattern on a white background. The information encoded can be text, URL or other data.

Common in Japan, where it was created by Toyota subsidiary Denso-Wave in 1994, the QR code is one of the most popular types of two-dimensional barcodes. QR is the abbreviation for Quick Response, as the creator intended the code to allow its contents to be decoded at high speed."

You'll need an app for your phone to decode this which varied depending on your operating system. My Blackberry Storm uses ScanLife with good results but other blackberry devices may use code cruncher–just Google them and you'll find one that works. Then simply snap a picture of this QR code with your phone's camera (with the app open) and it runs out to the internet and delivers…well, in this case your FREE Friday photo.

We use these codes on our web site and flyers to deliver information to people's phones rather than wasting print advertising paper resources. You’ll also see them on our sign post at a listed home in case the flyers run out or someone has the ability to be eco-friendly and download rather than take a printed flyer.

Our Mystery FREE Friday Photo can be downloaded here by scanning this QR code–try it; we think you'll like the new technology.

 

Mystery1

Happy Friday!

 

How to Pay Less Property Tax By Carrying Your Tax Base

If you’ve thought of moving but are frightened at the prospect of your property taxes increasing we have a few propositions for you—60, 90 and 110. You may already be aware of these but we have some new information which might make them more attractive.

Most homeowner’s are keenly aware that buying a new home means having their property tax base increased to 1% of the purchase price. For those of you who have owned a home for many years this alone can make a move financially impossible; for many, it means they couldn’t afford to buy the home they already own.

A BRIEF HISTORY

Proposition 60 enacted into law in 1986 allowed for the one-time transfer of your current home’s tax base to a replacement property of equal or lesser value after the age of 55 of either spouse, providing that the replacement property was located within the same county.

Proposition 90 passed by the legislature in 1989 allowed counties to voluntarily extend the transfer into their county to all 58 California Counties.

Proposition 110 passed in 1996 extends this relief to permanently disabled people, whether 55 or not.

The problem for most people wishing to benefit from this tax base transfer is they are limited to moving within the county in which they currently reside, or moving to one of only a handful of reciprocal counties (Alameda, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Ventura, San Mateo, and Santa Clara).

Fortunately, another very desirable county in the Sierra foothills was added to the list—El Dorado. Their legislature passed a resolution into law on December 10th 2009 taking effect February 15th of 2010 allowing anyone in the 58 California counties to transfer their tax base to El Dorado County.

There are rules you must follow or your transfer will be denied so before you consider a move you will want to read several of the helpful publications which exist, and/or consult with your tax or legal advisor. The State Board of Equalization offers some easy to understand  “Question and Answer” publications as well as a pdf containing many test case scenarios.

If you’ve been holding back on making a move to retain your home’s current tax base it’s nice to know you now have some great options. And if you’re not familiar with this Gold Rush era county, you owe it to yourself to check it out.

There are many cities within El Dorado County which offer a great quality with life. Located around Folsom Lake with its endless water activities, El Dorado County extends all of the way to South Lake Tahoe. The many towns in between including Placerville,  offer affordable housing options—from award winning retirement communities to cities catering to the first time buyer and neighborhoods that rival homes the Peninsula has to offer—including Hillsborough—all at a fraction of what it costs to live in the Bay Area.

Visit the on-line version of this newsletter at MorganHomes.com and use the underlined links in this article to read more.  If you are not comfortable with the internet, simply give us a call and we’ll mail you out some more information.

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Can San Mateo Survive a Tidal Wave?

San Mateo County Market Snapshot–Are We Treading Water?   

Those of you who follow our market updates know we put our hometown, Belmont, under a market microscope every month to get a glimpse as to where the market appears to be headed.

Of course that really is living in a Petri dish when it comes to the real estate market as a whole.

Real estate is very local—what goes on in even one part of a city could be entirely different from another. That said eventually positive market trends trickle down and negative ones up.

As evidence of this phenomenon one can go back and look at our charts from 2007 when Palo Alto was still doing famously yet Daly City may as well have slid into the ocean (many homeowners probably wish it had).

 

Today we visit the numbers—year over year—for San Mateo County as a whole, hoping to see some trends that will give us an inkling as to where consumer sentiment is, as reflected in sales, median price, etc.

SALES

New Listings

Current Inventory

Closed Sales

Average DOM

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

% LP Rec'd

Total $ Vol

 2011   545

1400

233

74

786,509

587,500

96.48

182,470,145
               

2010   484

1156

229

82

840,235

650,000

97.17

192,413,866

2009   530

1452

163

74

683,900

553,750

97.20

110,791,806

 

 

              

It’s easy to see that the ripples of consumer uncertainty could easily capsize the boat of recovery if the tides of low interest rates come in too fast. Cast-of-gilligans-island

Sales are certainly better than the low of 2009 and remain steady as they did in our Belmont example. But as in the Belmont report the median price showed a decline in home values since last January. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, especially if you are a potential home buyer and it doesn’t mean values are still dropping, just that they did drop year over year.

Interest rates are going up, and have done so rapidly in the last few months—around ¾ of a point. That hurts the ability for people to qualify for a home and with less demand there’s a potential for prices to decrease further.

But as we cautioned ourselves, we are comparing 2010–a year of government sponsored tax rebates to 2011 without. Let's see if our minnow of a recovery can weather the storm without a life raft.

Thanks for checking back in with us. 

*Data San Mateo County MLS.

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.

 

 

Belmont Home Prices Decline Further

We’re only one month into 2011 and already things are interesting.

Belmont home sales in January 2011 remained brisk. There were twelve homes which closed escrow in January, one more than last year but eight more than in 2009.

It appears a small trend has developed indicating January 2009, as suspected, was the low point for real estate.


 Glass But we aren’t out of the woods yet. Depending on who’s talking to you—a glass half full or half empty person—we’re either headed into a slow recovery or its lull in the action before a double dip. Never mind the glass is completely empty person—they’ll always be waiting for the “right time” to buy a home yet never do.

The definition of a double dip is when things get worse than they were at the trough of a business cycle. Considering how bad things were at one point in this last cycle, we find that implausible—that the state of affairs could get worse but hey, we don’t read tea leaves either. Of course that’s not to say things can't remain in a state of unsteadiness for years to come.

Within this recovery there will undoubtedly be micro swings in prices and sales which are highly dependent on consumer confidence, and of course interest rates. The media will predictably pounce on these blips on the radar screen—stay tuned.

January bel 2011

Click on the chart to see a full-sized version. And yes, those are Green Bay colors…

NEW LISTINGS

The number of new listings for Belmont in January 2011 stood at 24—six more than in 2010. The inventory levels for these same periods were 38 for 2011 and 35 for 2010.  The more interesting stat is the months of inventory—how long it would take to sell all of the homes at the current pace and inventory levels—a ratio if you will.

In January of 2009 it stood at over 10 months, and the last two January’s have seen that fall to just around 3 months. On a national level the country would be thrilled to see those numbers—the nation is hovering around the 11 month levels—six months defines a stable market.

Why then did prices still fall? Simple. Consumer confidence remains weak.

Sales are on the rise because sellers have become realistic about their home’s value, not because demand has increased. The months of inventory has remained low because many sellers aren't selling their homes. In Belmont, when inventory levels reach more than 50 homes for sale we experience a buyers’ market. Yet with inventory levels currently at 38 homes for sale, why then is it not a seller’s market?

Well the short answer is it is and it isn’t. Seller’s are managing to create a faux seller’s market by listing homes low and creating a bidding war, and keeping inventory levels low (no it’s not a conspiracy it’s just that a lot of sellers either can’t sell or won’t until prices go back up). The truth is buyers can be pickier in some instances; but with inventory levels this low it means it may take a long time to find the home they want.

Did Sellers get their Asking Price?

In January 2011 five of the 12 sellers lowered their asking price by on average $43,000 in order to attract a buyer. In 2010 that number was four sellers for an average of $65,000. Here’s the kicker—in 2010 all 11 homes sold for under the seller’s asking price; for on average $50,000 less, while in 2011 only seven homes sold for less than asking and only $30K (we threw out the one that was ridiculously off base).

So prices are up right? Nope. Sellers are just more sensible.

The median price for a Belmont home in 2011 was $745,000—down from $850,000 in 2010 and the size homes selling in 2011 were a smaller which compounds the difference.

The median size home sold in 2011 was 106 square feet larger than in 2010. This means that even if the median price was unchanged, the size home you could buy for the same money increased 6%. Now let’s factor in the $50,000 median price decline which adds another 5.8% drop in value and you’re looking at almost 12% price decline year over year.

If you are a buyer you need to know that any potential savings you might reap by waiting to see if values decline further could easily be wiped out by an increase in interest rates. Now’s not a bad time to consider getting off the fence…

 

* Data extracted from the San Mateo County MLS

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.


 

Sales of Existing Homes Double in Belmont for December 2010.

For Belmont homeowners there appears to be some stability creeping into the market. Home sales were brisk this December—double what they were in 2009. Those of you who may remember the home buyer tax credit was due to end in November last year which pulled a lot of buyers from December sales into November—all across the country. Not so much in Belmont since the qualifying purchase price had to be less than $800,000. Nevertheless we went back to compare previous December sales and they normally fall in the area of 12 for the month of December. One has to go back to 2005 when the housing market was red hot to see sales figures this high.

These first two graphs illustrate the housing activity in Belmont for the Month of December 2010 and the year end averages for the entire year. Bel chart 1

 

 

 

Bel chrt 2 year end

If we run we run down the usual list of market indicators, across the board there are some positive signs for homeowners.

Belmont December 2010

*Highlighted homes were sold by Drew & Christine Morgan. Click on the graph for a full-sized image.

DOM

The time it took for a seller in Belmont to get a contract on their home was at 58, up only slightly from last year’s 50 and is pretty well mitigated with the doubling of sales.

PERCENT RECEIVED

Belmont sellers received 98.1% of their asking price in December 2010 as compared to 97.22 in December of 2009.

Half of the homes in December 2010 underwent price reductions for on average $58,000 before they sold. Last year 42% of sellers reduced their price by on average $69,000.

Of the 24 sales this last December two sold at the seller’s asking price, 16 sold for less than asking (by on average ($33,488), and six homes sold over the seller’s asking price by on average $17,183.

Homes which sold over asking did so on average in 26 days while homes which sold for less took more than 65 days to sell.*

MEDIAN SALE PRICE

If you’ve followed this blog for any length of time you’ve heard us talk about how deceiving the median price can be in any small sample size. Once again the median home price is a bit misleading as it has the median home price in Belmont in December of 2010 at $912,500. That’s $102,750 (12.7%) more than last year’s $809,750.

So the answer lies somewhere in the numbers but ferreting out a more accurate sense of value is difficult. The size homes which sold in 2009 were on average 277 square feet smaller than the homes which sold in December of 2010, which accounts for most of the perceived median price increase. It just so happens that the size home you could get this year was also around 13% larger than last year—effectively whipping out any gain.

Using the year-end totals helps even out some of the distortion inherent in median price figures as the graph above demonstrates. If you take an average of each month’s median home price in Belmont for 2009, the average median home price was $847,604 and for 2010 it was $908,159—an increase of 7.1%. The average size of the home which sold in the two periods also increased from 1730 in 2009 to 2000 in 2020, a 15.6% increase. So was there any home appreciation in Belmont in 2010? Probably not. It appeared that in the first quarter of 2010 homes might increase in value but as quarters two and three came to a close (immediately following the conclusion of the homebuyer incentive programs) it was clear that would not be the case. The fourth quarter managed to salvage some of the losses in the two previous quarters as you shall probably hear soon n the media.

If you are considering selling your home this year be sure and contact us for a valuation of your home. We are experts in selling peninsula properties and our record of selling every home we list for sale is unparalleled in our industry.

 Note: We throw out homes we know were re-listed or underwent huge price reductions only to sell for slightly higher than their greatly reduced price.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this newsletter is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.