Belmont Home Sales for May 2011

Belmont home prices slipped back a bit in the month of May 2011 while sales continued to be less than impressive.

Home sales in Belmont were down considerably from May of 2010 and for good reason—home sales last May were buoyed by the last minute deadline for the $8,000 tax credit which lifted sales across the nation. Our sales analysis for May of 2010 addressed the temporary nature of the uptick in homes sales for the month of May 2010.

May 2011 Belmont Sales

SALES

Last year in May there were 34 home sales in Belmont as compared to only 15 this year. That’s one less sale than last month and two less than in February. Looking at the big picture, over the last 13 years the average home sales in Belmont has been 25 for the month of May—of course many of the last 13 years were boon years as well.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price for a home in Belmont for May 2011 was $949,000, an increase over April of 14% and an increase over last May when the median home price was $848,500. We could stop right there and change our headline but looking a little closer we see that the mix of homes which sold in these periods varied dramatically.

Last month, and in May of last year, the median size homes which sold were smaller than homes selling in May of 2011. Part of the reason for so many smaller homes selling last May was the $800,000 purchase cap to qualify for the $8,000 tax credit. This rebate lured many first-time buyers into the market but had an incidental effect of lowering the median home price with many smaller homes selling.

The median size home that sold in Belmont in May of 2010 was 1,845 square feet and in May of 2011 it had increased to 2,157. The increase of 312 square feet represents a 17% increase in the size of homes selling in the two periods while the increase in median price represents only an 11.8%. At the going rate of $478 per square foot in 2010 that could account for $149,136 of price differential—the actual differential in the two periods was only $100,500. This could loosely be translated into a real decline in median home price of $ 48,636 or 5.1% year over year.

While the median home price may have slipped back a bit the average time it took to sell a home dropped from 25 days in May of 2010 to 17 in May 2011.

PRICE REDUCTIONS

Four sellers in May of 2010 lowered their asking price by on average $64,750 in order to attract a buyer while this May only one seller lowered their asking price by $30,000. These fewer price reductions might be attributed to sellers (and agents) pricing their home more accurately to reflect the current market conditions.

PERCENT RECEIVED

May of 2011 found sellers netting more than last year during the same period. Seller’s received 101.3% of their asking price this year as compared to sellers netting only 99.8% last May.

A correlative effect of pricing one’s home right is that offers will usually come in closer to the asking price. This May five (33%) of the home sales were under the asking price for on average $22,000, four homes sold at the asking price and six (40%) sold for on average $40,000 more.

In May of 2010 15 homes (44%) sold for on average $26,000 less than what the seller was asking, three homes sold at the asking price and 16 (47%) sold for on average $22,000 more than asking.

The peninsula market appears to be picking up some steam, though the numbers have yet to reflect what we see occurring locally.

Homes which are priced right are often snapped up within days with multiple offers while sellers (and agents) who push the pricing envelope quickly lose market enthusiasm and are more often than not relegated to months of marketing, open houses, showings and multiple price reductions before finding a buyer.

We’ve also noted that many more people are contacting us for rentals than in the past several years. This increase in demand for rental housing has created a shortage in the supply and rental units are harder to come by while rental prices are skyrocketing. And when rents rise (and the number of units unavailable to meet the demand) people look at purchasing as an alternative. We suspect that the peninsula housing market is poised for a rebound sooner than the rest of the nation but don’t expect to hear about it in the news just yet.

Increased affordability in the housing sector with lower home values and historically low interest rates makes considering buying VS renting very attractive.

Investors of rental units are simply giddy at locking in historically low interest rates for 30 years and will reap handsome rewards when inflation returns.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Belmont Home Values on the Rise – April 2011 Home Sales Report

Bel Stats April 2011

The sale of single family homes in Belmont increased this April to 16 over last April’s 10—a 60% increase in home sales. This is important to note since last year in April homebuyers enjoyed the $8,000 tax incentive program (and also because we went out on a limb and predicted this might happen). During the same time the average days it took to sell a home dropped from 76 days to 50.

•             Last April four homes took price reductions of on average $48,000 in order to attract a buyer. This April five sellers had to reduce their prices by $44,000 in order to sell their homes.

•             While last April three homes sold for on average $40,000 less than their asking price and took 75 days to do so, this year eight sellers received on average $34,000 less in 93 days.

•             Six of this April’s sixteen home sales sold for on average $25,000 more than asking price in only six days, as compared to last year when the same number of homes sold over asking in 12 days.

•             In both years two homes sold at the seller’s asking price within six to nine days.

The bigger news is the median Belmont home price in April of 2010 was $967,500—which bought you a four bedroom three bath home of 2,418 square feet. This year the median home sale price in April was only $835,000 and for that you could purchase a three bedroom two bath home of only 1,570 square feet.

What does all this mean?

It means that while the median price point for homes sold last year was higher, you could also get a lot more home for your money.

The relatively small inventory of homes selling in Belmont means the median home price—the point at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less—is very susceptible to swings created by either larger or smaller homes selling in a given month.

The difference in the size home one could buy in April of 2010 as compared to April of 2011 was 848 square feet larger at the median price point—that’s not an insignificant number. If one could buy a home 54% larger last year for only 16% more than this year it means home values actually went up year-over-year.

A way to better compare apples to apples and approximate the adjusted median home price is to multiply the 848 square feet by the median price per square foot which homes were selling for—$ 445.00 per square foot ($377,360) and add that to this year’s median home price of $835,000 to approximate a closer representation of the median price trend:

848 x $445 = $377,360 + $835,000 = $1,212,360 (Adjusted median home price).

While this approach is not perfect, despite the recent reported median home price decline in the Bay Area, either home values increased in Belmont year-over-year or you just get a lot less home for your money this year.

Is this a trend or anomaly? Stay tuned…

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Belmont Housing Review – February 2011

Once again if we are lulled into believing the raw numbers Belmont’s median home price shot up 14.7% over last February and an unbelievable 23% since just last month—unbelievable being the operative word.

Belmont Home Sales February 2011

(click on the picture to see a larger image). * Yes. Those are Mardi Gras colors…

In fact the median home price in Belmont was $917,500 in February 2011 while last February it was $800,000 and just last month it was $745,000.

But being the spoiler I am I have to report that the size homes which sold last February were only 1640 square feet in size and this February they were 2,030—24% or 390 square feet larger.

We can play around with some fuzzy math and arrive at several conclusions which all point to the fact that year over year prices have actually declined.

A home which is 23% larger yet only costs me 14.7% more seems too good to be true. Part of the inequity has to do with the issue that land remains a constant, which makes any approximation of value just that. Looking at it from several different ways one can safely arrive at a price decline of around 8.3% year-over-year.

SALES

And that perhaps is why home sale in Belmont are up 20%–well, 12 sales this year compared to 10 last year is only two more sales but hey, we have to offer full disclosure right?

In February of 2010 four of those Belmont homes lowered their asking price by on average $28,760 but this February three sellers slashed their asking price by on average $62,000.

Six homes sold for on average $51,000 less than there asking price last year while only four did so this year—for the exact same amount.

Each year two of the homes sold right at the seller’s asking price while last year two sold for more—on average $53,000 and this year six sold for on average $15,000 more.

DOM

The time it took to sell your home dropped dramatically over last year. Several factors are in play here. First there were more homes to choose from this year which helped buyers come to a decision more quickly. Both years there were many hangover listings from the previous December which carried with them the dreaded DOM stigma but this year we sold a few more of them than last year.

% Received.

The amount the seller received of their asking price 98.7% remained unchanged from last year but was up 1.4% over last month.

On an insider note, 13 of the 19 homes pending sale in Belmont right now are scheduled to close this month and we personally know that of the 19, several will be closing well over the asking price thanks to multiple offers. Yes, the word buyers hate to hear has raised its ugly head again due to the low inventory of homes to buy.

If you are considering selling your Belmont home, right now’s a pretty good time according to the activity we’ve seen.

 

Can San Mateo Survive a Tidal Wave?

San Mateo County Market Snapshot–Are We Treading Water?   

Those of you who follow our market updates know we put our hometown, Belmont, under a market microscope every month to get a glimpse as to where the market appears to be headed.

Of course that really is living in a Petri dish when it comes to the real estate market as a whole.

Real estate is very local—what goes on in even one part of a city could be entirely different from another. That said eventually positive market trends trickle down and negative ones up.

As evidence of this phenomenon one can go back and look at our charts from 2007 when Palo Alto was still doing famously yet Daly City may as well have slid into the ocean (many homeowners probably wish it had).

 

Today we visit the numbers—year over year—for San Mateo County as a whole, hoping to see some trends that will give us an inkling as to where consumer sentiment is, as reflected in sales, median price, etc.

SALES

New Listings

Current Inventory

Closed Sales

Average DOM

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

% LP Rec'd

Total $ Vol

 2011   545

1400

233

74

786,509

587,500

96.48

182,470,145
               

2010   484

1156

229

82

840,235

650,000

97.17

192,413,866

2009   530

1452

163

74

683,900

553,750

97.20

110,791,806

 

 

              

It’s easy to see that the ripples of consumer uncertainty could easily capsize the boat of recovery if the tides of low interest rates come in too fast. Cast-of-gilligans-island

Sales are certainly better than the low of 2009 and remain steady as they did in our Belmont example. But as in the Belmont report the median price showed a decline in home values since last January. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, especially if you are a potential home buyer and it doesn’t mean values are still dropping, just that they did drop year over year.

Interest rates are going up, and have done so rapidly in the last few months—around ¾ of a point. That hurts the ability for people to qualify for a home and with less demand there’s a potential for prices to decrease further.

But as we cautioned ourselves, we are comparing 2010–a year of government sponsored tax rebates to 2011 without. Let's see if our minnow of a recovery can weather the storm without a life raft.

Thanks for checking back in with us. 

*Data San Mateo County MLS.

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.

 

 

Belmont Home Prices Decline Further

We’re only one month into 2011 and already things are interesting.

Belmont home sales in January 2011 remained brisk. There were twelve homes which closed escrow in January, one more than last year but eight more than in 2009.

It appears a small trend has developed indicating January 2009, as suspected, was the low point for real estate.


 Glass But we aren’t out of the woods yet. Depending on who’s talking to you—a glass half full or half empty person—we’re either headed into a slow recovery or its lull in the action before a double dip. Never mind the glass is completely empty person—they’ll always be waiting for the “right time” to buy a home yet never do.

The definition of a double dip is when things get worse than they were at the trough of a business cycle. Considering how bad things were at one point in this last cycle, we find that implausible—that the state of affairs could get worse but hey, we don’t read tea leaves either. Of course that’s not to say things can't remain in a state of unsteadiness for years to come.

Within this recovery there will undoubtedly be micro swings in prices and sales which are highly dependent on consumer confidence, and of course interest rates. The media will predictably pounce on these blips on the radar screen—stay tuned.

January bel 2011

Click on the chart to see a full-sized version. And yes, those are Green Bay colors…

NEW LISTINGS

The number of new listings for Belmont in January 2011 stood at 24—six more than in 2010. The inventory levels for these same periods were 38 for 2011 and 35 for 2010.  The more interesting stat is the months of inventory—how long it would take to sell all of the homes at the current pace and inventory levels—a ratio if you will.

In January of 2009 it stood at over 10 months, and the last two January’s have seen that fall to just around 3 months. On a national level the country would be thrilled to see those numbers—the nation is hovering around the 11 month levels—six months defines a stable market.

Why then did prices still fall? Simple. Consumer confidence remains weak.

Sales are on the rise because sellers have become realistic about their home’s value, not because demand has increased. The months of inventory has remained low because many sellers aren't selling their homes. In Belmont, when inventory levels reach more than 50 homes for sale we experience a buyers’ market. Yet with inventory levels currently at 38 homes for sale, why then is it not a seller’s market?

Well the short answer is it is and it isn’t. Seller’s are managing to create a faux seller’s market by listing homes low and creating a bidding war, and keeping inventory levels low (no it’s not a conspiracy it’s just that a lot of sellers either can’t sell or won’t until prices go back up). The truth is buyers can be pickier in some instances; but with inventory levels this low it means it may take a long time to find the home they want.

Did Sellers get their Asking Price?

In January 2011 five of the 12 sellers lowered their asking price by on average $43,000 in order to attract a buyer. In 2010 that number was four sellers for an average of $65,000. Here’s the kicker—in 2010 all 11 homes sold for under the seller’s asking price; for on average $50,000 less, while in 2011 only seven homes sold for less than asking and only $30K (we threw out the one that was ridiculously off base).

So prices are up right? Nope. Sellers are just more sensible.

The median price for a Belmont home in 2011 was $745,000—down from $850,000 in 2010 and the size homes selling in 2011 were a smaller which compounds the difference.

The median size home sold in 2011 was 106 square feet larger than in 2010. This means that even if the median price was unchanged, the size home you could buy for the same money increased 6%. Now let’s factor in the $50,000 median price decline which adds another 5.8% drop in value and you’re looking at almost 12% price decline year over year.

If you are a buyer you need to know that any potential savings you might reap by waiting to see if values decline further could easily be wiped out by an increase in interest rates. Now’s not a bad time to consider getting off the fence…

 

* Data extracted from the San Mateo County MLS

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.


 

Sales of Existing Homes Double in Belmont for December 2010.

For Belmont homeowners there appears to be some stability creeping into the market. Home sales were brisk this December—double what they were in 2009. Those of you who may remember the home buyer tax credit was due to end in November last year which pulled a lot of buyers from December sales into November—all across the country. Not so much in Belmont since the qualifying purchase price had to be less than $800,000. Nevertheless we went back to compare previous December sales and they normally fall in the area of 12 for the month of December. One has to go back to 2005 when the housing market was red hot to see sales figures this high.

These first two graphs illustrate the housing activity in Belmont for the Month of December 2010 and the year end averages for the entire year. Bel chart 1

 

 

 

Bel chrt 2 year end

If we run we run down the usual list of market indicators, across the board there are some positive signs for homeowners.

Belmont December 2010

*Highlighted homes were sold by Drew & Christine Morgan. Click on the graph for a full-sized image.

DOM

The time it took for a seller in Belmont to get a contract on their home was at 58, up only slightly from last year’s 50 and is pretty well mitigated with the doubling of sales.

PERCENT RECEIVED

Belmont sellers received 98.1% of their asking price in December 2010 as compared to 97.22 in December of 2009.

Half of the homes in December 2010 underwent price reductions for on average $58,000 before they sold. Last year 42% of sellers reduced their price by on average $69,000.

Of the 24 sales this last December two sold at the seller’s asking price, 16 sold for less than asking (by on average ($33,488), and six homes sold over the seller’s asking price by on average $17,183.

Homes which sold over asking did so on average in 26 days while homes which sold for less took more than 65 days to sell.*

MEDIAN SALE PRICE

If you’ve followed this blog for any length of time you’ve heard us talk about how deceiving the median price can be in any small sample size. Once again the median home price is a bit misleading as it has the median home price in Belmont in December of 2010 at $912,500. That’s $102,750 (12.7%) more than last year’s $809,750.

So the answer lies somewhere in the numbers but ferreting out a more accurate sense of value is difficult. The size homes which sold in 2009 were on average 277 square feet smaller than the homes which sold in December of 2010, which accounts for most of the perceived median price increase. It just so happens that the size home you could get this year was also around 13% larger than last year—effectively whipping out any gain.

Using the year-end totals helps even out some of the distortion inherent in median price figures as the graph above demonstrates. If you take an average of each month’s median home price in Belmont for 2009, the average median home price was $847,604 and for 2010 it was $908,159—an increase of 7.1%. The average size of the home which sold in the two periods also increased from 1730 in 2009 to 2000 in 2020, a 15.6% increase. So was there any home appreciation in Belmont in 2010? Probably not. It appeared that in the first quarter of 2010 homes might increase in value but as quarters two and three came to a close (immediately following the conclusion of the homebuyer incentive programs) it was clear that would not be the case. The fourth quarter managed to salvage some of the losses in the two previous quarters as you shall probably hear soon n the media.

If you are considering selling your home this year be sure and contact us for a valuation of your home. We are experts in selling peninsula properties and our record of selling every home we list for sale is unparalleled in our industry.

 Note: We throw out homes we know were re-listed or underwent huge price reductions only to sell for slightly higher than their greatly reduced price.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this newsletter is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. 

Belmont Home Sales – November 2010

We love the holidays as much as anyone, but a little less red in the chart would be nice too.

Belmont home sales for November of 2010 continued the trend of the last two quarters with fewer sales and declining home values as compared to the same period in 2009. 

November 2010

(Click on the chart to see a full-sized image)

Clearly consumer confidence is woefully short of normal. While consumer confidence does not in and of itself control the direction of the economy it does reflect consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment is well represented by consumer spending—when consumers are comfortable with their view of the future they tend to spend more. Considering that some estimate consumer spending to represent 2/3rds of our nation’s domestic product (GDP) suffice to say that consumer confidence is necessary for a sustained recovery. For consumer confidence to rebound there needs to be more jobs and of course the feeling that the job one has won’t go away soon either. On a positive note the consumer confidence index rose to 54.1 in November from a revised 49.9 in October. It was the highest level in five months. The index was benchmarked at 100 in 1985, a year chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough in consumer confidence.

How does this affect the housing market? The tenuous job market is taking its toll on nervous home buyers. Buyers are still purchasing homes but fewer can qualify for a loan and when they do it’s usually for less home than before. Those who are willing to purchase a home seem to want only exceptional deals—building into their offer price a buffer against further price declines.

SALES

Home sales in Belmont remained fairly strong considering the aporetic feelings among buyers.

This November we saw 16 homes trade hands in Belmont as compared to 22 in 2009.

Of the 16 sales, six sold for on average $21,350 more than the seller’s asking price in 17 days, one sold at the asking price, and nine sold for on average $16,500 less and took 82 days to sell.

Six sellers also reduced the price they were originally asking  for their home by on average by $149,342, while last year there were only three homes which had price reductions during the same period and for on average only $13,590.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price (on paper) went up 5.4% to $843,475 from November 2009 when it was $800,000. However, in 2009 the median size home which sold was only 1,558 square feet as compared to this November when the median size home sold was 1,920 square feet—a difference of 352 square feet. At the median price per square foot that homes sold for during November, $466 and the difference in the size home sold, 352 sq. ft. one could make an argument that if all things were equal (the same size home selling in the two periods) the adjusted price for 2009 would be closer to $964,032 ((352 Sq. Ft. x $466 per sq. ft. = $164,032) + $800,000) =$964,032. This allows us to estimate that home values dropped around 12.5% year over year in the month of November. How much the median price changed for the year as a whole is yet to be determined. Remember, just because homes dropped 12.5% in the month of November, earlier increases in the year can mean at year's end the median price could be up for down from the previous year.

It’s also interesting to note that although the median size home which sold in November of 2010 was much larger, only one home sold over the one million dollar mark as compared to three in 2009.

 

DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)

Not surprisingly it took more time to sell a home this year than last–on average 62 days—up dramatically from 38.5 days in November of 2009. One also must be cognizant that last November the first-time buyer tax credit was in effect which skewed the numbers in favor of more sales, selling faster, and for more.

When home values are dropping, the time it takes to sell a home typically increases as sellers often price their home based on recent past sales. But when home values are falling, recent sales were worth more. Eventually most sellers get the idea that they must get ahead of the pricing curve and lower their home more than the market suggests it might be worth. This has an ancillary effect of lowering home values rapidly and perhaps more than they would otherwise drop.

Noting the huge difference in not only the number of homes which had price reductions, but the steep adjustments that were made, illustrates the difficulty in pricing a home in a declining market and underscores the importance of introducing your home to the market at the right price.

Summary

There’s always some danger in looking at a small market sample such as Belmont with only 16 sales in a given month. Seasonal factors play heavily in the statistics which is why we choose to compare each month we examine to the same month a year before. However, it’s important to note that other factors can effect comparing these two periods. For example, last November the first-time buyer tax credit was expiring, causing many buyers to rush to the bargaining table. This increased competition for homes undoubtedly buoying the prices while increasing sales.

Our leading indicators of future market conditions indicate a gradual recovery in the housing sector.

  • The Institute for Supply Management reported that the monthly composite index of manufacturing activity fell slightly to 56.6 in November after reaching 56.9 in October. A reading above 50 signals expansion. It was the 16th straight month of expansion.
  • Total construction spending rose 0.7% to $802.3 billion in October, following a revised 0.7% increase in September. Economists had anticipated a drop of 0.4% in October.
  • The National Association of Realtors reported that its pending home sales index, a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts, rose 10.4% in October after a 1.8% decrease in September.
  • The Institute for Supply Management reported that the monthly composite index of non-manufacturing activity rose to 55 in November from 54.3 in October. A reading above 50 signals expansion. It was the 11th straight month of expansion.

On a local level our professional staging company has reported to us that their orders for staged homes are booking up fast for January, indicating that Sellers are interested in getting a jump on the spring market.

If you are considering selling your home next year you may want to consider doing it sooner rather than later before inventory rises to levels which make price reductions necessary to attract Buyers.

If you are considering selling your current home and/or purchasing a new one be sure and contact us for your real estate needs.

Now for the inevitable disclaimer: The information contained in this newsletter is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. 

 

 

 

 

Belmont Home Sales – October 2010 Where’s the Beef?

With the election behind us and the stock market rallying to the excitement and anticipation of more economic stimulus and legislative gridlock, Belmont’s housing market continues to show signs of what could be viewed as stagnation at its best, or a double dip at its worst.

This October, housing sales for Belmont revealed a slower market and softening prices compared to October 2009.

 October 2010 Belmont4 
 

(Click the picture for a larger image).

SALES

Thirteen home sales—one shy of last year’s 14, would not normally give great cause for consternation—especially since the sample size in Belmont is so small.  However across the board indicators are eluding to a reluctance on the part of buyers to commit to purchasing a home.

 In light of comments like that of John Paulsen who made a fortune betting on the sub-prime market collapse proclaiming “this is the best time to buy a home in fifty years, exclaiming that, "If you don't own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home” clearly job security is the number one reason buyers are waiting before taking on any new debt.

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

The October median home price in Belmont was $864,200 and appears to have dropped only slightly from October 2009 when it was $865,000. Once again though larger homes sold this October. The median size home sold was 2010 square feet as compared to last year when the median size home sold was only 1760 square feet. Put another way, this year you could buy a home 250 square feet larger (14%) for the essentially the same price as last year.

DOM

The average time it took to sell a home in Belmont this October also went up from 38 days last year to 46 this October.

% RECEIVED

Seller’s also enjoyed getting 99.6% of their asking price last year while this October dropped to 98%.

PRICE REDUCTIONS

Six of the 13 sales this year had lowered their price on average $92,000 to attract a buyer while last year only three sellers reduced their asking price for on average $40,000.

This October while three homes sold for on average $29,000 more than their asking, last October six homes sold over asking for on average $23,000.

The last thing any seller wants is to get less than their asking price and this year more sellers were disappointed as nine homes sold for on average $34,000 less compared to last October when only seven homes sold for on average $30,000 less than their asking price.

In October of both years just one home sold at the seller’s asking price.

COMMENTARY

This fourth quarter slowdown in real estate is not all that unexpected. It’s a fairly mild hiccup at this point which may be attributed in part to election jitters but certainly it’s exacerbated by our own government when they announce they are re-visiting the home mortgage deduction. Of course every year some committee wants to reexamine if they could do away with it to be replaced by a flat t tax, but to do so in a year when the government is spending billions of dollars trying to stimulate the economy, and particularly the housing sector, one wonders why they wouldn’t just table any further debates on the home mortgage deduction until after they economy was on track.

Belmont Housing Price Report – September 2010

September means fall has arrived and nowhere did we see more falling than in the number of home sales in Belmont for this time of year.

Belmont September 2010 copy 

(click here for a full-sized image).

Here are the details:

MEDIAN PRICE:

Once again we had an increase in the median price over last September.  The median price in Belmont for September 2010 was $865,000—an increase of 8% over last September’s $795,000. And this was once again mitigated (or negated) by the size homes which sold in the two periods.

This September the size home sold in Belmont was 1,900 Square feet compared to last year when it was only 1,600. The 300 square foot differential accounts for approximately $144,000 in price variance if you multiply it based on the $480 per square foot that homes sold for over the two periods. Effectively the size home which sold was 18.75% larger but only garnered an 8% higher price tag.

Does this mean that Belmont’s median price is still dropping? Well it certainly means it has dropped in the past two months—but price drops this time of year tend to be seasonal.

NUMBER OF SALES:

Sales of homes in Belmont last month were down by 33% from a year ago. And a year ago sale were down from normal levels. Now 33% wouldn’t mean a lot if we had only three sales a month but we had 18 last September and only 12 this year.

This is no doubt a hangover from the housing stimulus bill that ran out earlier this year and attracted many of the buyers to move earlier in the year.

PRICE STABILIZATION:

It could be temporary, but of the homes which sold, three sold for on average $10,000 over asking (even though one only sold for a dollar more), two sold for the seller’s asking price and seven homes sold for less—by on average $66,000. Compared to last year when no homes sold for more than the seller’s asking price, eight homes sold under and 10 sold at the asking price, this is relatively good news.

DOM:

The time it took to sell the homes increased over last year—up from 45 days to 73.

INVENTORY:

With 64 homes available for sale in Belmont right now prices are sure to remain flat unless buyers begin to feel more comfortable with their job stability, or in some cases, the prospect of a job at all.

PERCENT RECEIVED:

Once again the numbers are down from last September. A year ago the seller could happily receive on average 98% of their asking price and this year that number dropped to 96.65%.

September is typically a month that begins the fall push for housing before buyers go into their winter hibernation mode with brisk sales and sellers typically getting more for their home than during the summer months. This was clearly not the case this September so it will be interesting to see how the October numbers come in.

There are a lot of buyers still sitting on the fence. It’s our opinion that at the end of the year Belmont’s median price will be higher than in 2009 and we expect that to continue at a tepid pace through 2011.

If you are a buyer thinking of making a move, statistically the winter is the best time to snag a deal. Call us is you’d like to get started early!