A Tale of Two Cities—How Strong Is the Market? A Local Look at Belmont, San Carlos & San Mateo County

Tale of Two Cities

Belmont– Local Market

Belmont is still a seller’s market, but pricing accuracy matters more than it did last year.

  • Homes are still selling quickly, but not every home is automatically getting multiple offers.
  • Buyers are more selective—they’re paying premiums for:
    • Walkable neighborhoods
    • Updated homes
    • Large Lots & Views
    • Good school access
  • Overpricing now leads to longer days on market, which didn’t matter as much in 2024.
  • Well-priced homes are still selling at or above list price, just with fewer “emotion-driven” bids.
  • Inventory remains very tight, which continues to protect values.

Belmont hasn’t softened—it’s just gotten smarter.

San Carlos – Local Market

San Carlos is one of the strongest-performing markets on the Peninsula right now.

  • Demand remains extremely strong, especially near:
    • Downtown
    • Laurel Street
    • Good elementary schools
  • Prices have continued to rise, even as other cities leveled off.
  • Homes that show well and are priced correctly often sell fast and above asking.
  • Buyers are still willing to stretch for:
    • Turnkey homes
    • Flat lots
    • Walkability and lifestyle
  • Inventory is near zero, which is keeping upward pressure on prices.

San Carlos is following in Belmont’s footsteps, doing what Belmont did a year ago.

Belmont

  • Median price essentially flat: $2.423M → $2.418M
  • $/SqFt down: $1,308 → $1,244
  • Still selling over list (106%)

Stabilizing after a blow-off year—still competitive, but more rational.

San Carlos

  • Median price: $2.41M → $2.65M ⬆ +10%
  • Sales volume up +21%
  • Inventory remains near zero

One of the strongest appreciation stories in 2025.

San Mateo County – Big Picture (YOY)

Sales Activity & Volume

  • Closed sales:
    • 2024: 3,569
    • 2025: 3,822 ⬆ +7.1%
  • Total sales volume:
    • 2024: $9.07B
    • 2025: $10.10B ⬆ +11.3%
  • The market didn’t just rise in price—it expanded in depth. More transactions and more dollars moved through the system.

Pricing

  • Median sale price:
    • $1,950,000 → $1,980,000 ⬆ +1.5%
  • Average sale price:
    • $2.54M → $2.64M ⬆ +4.0%
  • Median $/SqFt:
    • $1,157 → $1,146 ⬇ -0.9%

2026 Market Outlook: What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

The Belmont, San Carlos, and broader San Mateo County markets enter 2026 from a position of strength and stability, not excess. The data from 2024 and 2025 show steady demand, limited inventory, and pricing that continues to be supported by fundamentals rather than speculation.

For sellers, this means the market is still favorable—but no longer forgiving. Homes that are well prepared and accurately priced from the start are likely to attract strong interest. Overpricing, which buyers tolerated in prior years, is increasingly leading to longer market times and missed opportunities. In 2026, strategy and presentation will matter as much as location.

For buyers, conditions are improving modestly. While inventory remains tight, competition has become more measured. Buyers who are well-qualified, decisive, and realistic are finding more opportunities to negotiate—especially on homes that miss the market’s initial pricing window.

Looking ahead, price growth is expected to be moderate rather than explosive, with neighborhood-specific performance playing a larger role than countywide trends. Markets like San Carlos may continue to show momentum, while markets like Belmont are likely to reward consistency and long-term value.
This is shaping up to be a market that favors informed decisions over emotion, rewarding those who understand timing, pricing, and local nuances.

Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They have assisted buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond Award, ranking among the top 50 agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California, according to RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or emailinfo@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook and on X.

This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice; it cannot replace advice tailored to your situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional familiar with your scenario.

BROKER | MANAGER | NOTARY

San Mateo County Housing Market: Rising Demand, Shrinking Supply, and Hidden Value Gains

San Mateo County Housing Market Snapshot: A Mixed Bag of Growth and Decline

The Q3 2024 housing market in San Mateo County reveals notable shifts compared to the same quarter in 2023. While total sales volume and median sale prices increased, other key indicators suggest tightening market dynamics.

Sales Surge Amid Reduced Inventory: The number of homes sold increased by 7.7%, rising from 902 to 977, likely due to strong demand despite the dropping number of new listings. This is reflected in the lower inventory levels—the inventory of homes that haven’t sold by the end of a month.

Pricing Trends Show Hidden Results: 

Median sale prices grew by 4.5%, reaching $1,908,700. At the same time, the cost per square foot climbed 5.2% to $1,149.

Smaller Lots, Bigger Gains

In Q3 2024, lot sizes shrank 24.7% (15,606 to 12,514 sq. ft.), and home sizes dropped 4.7% (to 2,012 sq. ft.). These shifts skew the reported appreciation, as smaller homes on smaller lots sold for 5.2% more. Adjusting for size differences and price per square foot ($60.00), the true median price appreciation is closer to 15.1% year-over-year.

Price Per Square Foot Climbs Nearly 9% The average price per square foot rose sharply, jumping 8.8% from $865 to $949. This uptick underscores rising property values and increased buyer competition. Higher demand, coupled with limited supply, is driving prices higher on a per-square-foot basis, a clear sign of a strengthening market. If inventory constraints remain, expect this trend to persist.

Faster Sales, Fewer Days on Market: Homes sold quicker in 2024, with the average days on market (DOM) dropping from 24 to 23 days, a minuscule 4.3% improvement. This indicates continued competition for available homes.

Strong Pricing Power: Sellers continued to receive more than asking prices, with the percentage of list price received improving to 105%, up 1%.

Total Sales Volume Climbs: The market saw a 5.9% increase in sales volume, reaching $2.35 billion, signaling robust overall growth.

Tighter Months of Inventory: The months of inventory dropped to 1.6, reflecting a 12.5% tightening, signaling a shift toward a stronger seller’s market.

In summary, Q3 2024 shows an increasingly competitive market with rising demand and constrained supply. While buyers face higher prices and smaller lots, sellers benefit from faster sales and strong pricing power. If inventory remains low, expect continued price pressures.

Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They have assisted buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond award and ranked among the top 50 agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California by RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or email info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook and on Twitter.

This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice, and it cannot replace advice tailored to your specific situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional who is familiar with your scenario.

BROKER | OWNER | NOTARY