A Tale of Two Cities—How Strong Is the Market? A Local Look at Belmont, San Carlos & San Mateo County

Tale of Two Cities

Belmont– Local Market

Belmont is still a seller’s market, but pricing accuracy matters more than it did last year.

  • Homes are still selling quickly, but not every home is automatically getting multiple offers.
  • Buyers are more selective—they’re paying premiums for:
    • Walkable neighborhoods
    • Updated homes
    • Large Lots & Views
    • Good school access
  • Overpricing now leads to longer days on market, which didn’t matter as much in 2024.
  • Well-priced homes are still selling at or above list price, just with fewer “emotion-driven” bids.
  • Inventory remains very tight, which continues to protect values.

Belmont hasn’t softened—it’s just gotten smarter.

San Carlos – Local Market

San Carlos is one of the strongest-performing markets on the Peninsula right now.

  • Demand remains extremely strong, especially near:
    • Downtown
    • Laurel Street
    • Good elementary schools
  • Prices have continued to rise, even as other cities leveled off.
  • Homes that show well and are priced correctly often sell fast and above asking.
  • Buyers are still willing to stretch for:
    • Turnkey homes
    • Flat lots
    • Walkability and lifestyle
  • Inventory is near zero, which is keeping upward pressure on prices.

San Carlos is following in Belmont’s footsteps, doing what Belmont did a year ago.

Belmont

  • Median price essentially flat: $2.423M → $2.418M
  • $/SqFt down: $1,308 → $1,244
  • Still selling over list (106%)

Stabilizing after a blow-off year—still competitive, but more rational.

San Carlos

  • Median price: $2.41M → $2.65M ⬆ +10%
  • Sales volume up +21%
  • Inventory remains near zero

One of the strongest appreciation stories in 2025.

San Mateo County – Big Picture (YOY)

Sales Activity & Volume

  • Closed sales:
    • 2024: 3,569
    • 2025: 3,822 ⬆ +7.1%
  • Total sales volume:
    • 2024: $9.07B
    • 2025: $10.10B ⬆ +11.3%
  • The market didn’t just rise in price—it expanded in depth. More transactions and more dollars moved through the system.

Pricing

  • Median sale price:
    • $1,950,000 → $1,980,000 ⬆ +1.5%
  • Average sale price:
    • $2.54M → $2.64M ⬆ +4.0%
  • Median $/SqFt:
    • $1,157 → $1,146 ⬇ -0.9%

2026 Market Outlook: What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

The Belmont, San Carlos, and broader San Mateo County markets enter 2026 from a position of strength and stability, not excess. The data from 2024 and 2025 show steady demand, limited inventory, and pricing that continues to be supported by fundamentals rather than speculation.

For sellers, this means the market is still favorable—but no longer forgiving. Homes that are well prepared and accurately priced from the start are likely to attract strong interest. Overpricing, which buyers tolerated in prior years, is increasingly leading to longer market times and missed opportunities. In 2026, strategy and presentation will matter as much as location.

For buyers, conditions are improving modestly. While inventory remains tight, competition has become more measured. Buyers who are well-qualified, decisive, and realistic are finding more opportunities to negotiate—especially on homes that miss the market’s initial pricing window.

Looking ahead, price growth is expected to be moderate rather than explosive, with neighborhood-specific performance playing a larger role than countywide trends. Markets like San Carlos may continue to show momentum, while markets like Belmont are likely to reward consistency and long-term value.
This is shaping up to be a market that favors informed decisions over emotion, rewarding those who understand timing, pricing, and local nuances.

Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They have assisted buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond Award, ranking among the top 50 agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California, according to RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or emailinfo@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook and on X.

This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice; it cannot replace advice tailored to your situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional familiar with your scenario.

BROKER | MANAGER | NOTARY

Real Estate Boom: San Mateo and Belmont See Surge in Home Prices and Sales in 2024

“We’re seeing the strongest market conditions since the beginning of 2022…”

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“San Mateo County Home Sales Continue to Slip in May, Signaling Continued Shift in Market Dynamics”

The San Mateo County home sale activity shows a year over year decline in home sale activity between May 2022 and May 2023. 

The comparison sheds light on the changes in new inventory, sold properties, average days on the market (DOM), average sale price, median sale price, the median price per square foot, percentage of list price received, sale volume, average home square footage, average lot square footage, and months of inventory.

  • New Inventory: In May 2023, there was a significant decrease of 22% in new inventory compared to May 2022. This decline indicates a decrease in newly listed properties during the period.
  • Inventory: The overall inventory available for sale also experienced a decline of 14% from May 2022 to May 2023. This decrease suggests fewer properties on the market during the latter period.
  • Sold Properties: The number of properties sold in May 2023 decreased by 38% compared to May 2022. This substantial decline indicates decreased buyer activity in the market and suggests a potentially slower sales cycle during the later period.
  • Average DOM: The average number of days on the market increased by 26% in May 2023 compared to May 2022. This rise suggests that properties took longer to sell during the later period, indicating a decrease in buyer demand and a continued detachment from reality for sellers pricing their homes.
  • Median Sale Price: The median sale price experienced a decrease of 10% from May 2022 to May 2023.
  • Average Home Square Footage: The average home size, measured in square feet, experienced only a minor decrease of 2% from May 2022 to May 2023. While the homes sold were 2% smaller in 2023,  they were down10% in value, which could be interpreted that home values are down 8% YOY. 
  • Median Price per Square Foot: The median price per square foot decreased by 14% in May 2023 compared to May 2022. 
  • Percentage of List Price Received: Sellers received 9% less of their asking price in May 2023 compared to May 2022, as indicated by a 9% decrease in the percentage of list price received. This decline suggests a potentially more negotiable market, with buyers having more leverage this year over last.
  • Sale Volume: The total sale volume in May 2023 decreased significantly by 63% compared to May 2022. This decrease reflects a substantial reduction in the total value of properties sold during the later period.
  • Average Lot Square Footage: May 2023 saw a considerable decrease of 33% in the average lot size compared to May 2022. This decline suggests a potential shift towards smaller lots or an increase in properties with smaller land parcels during the latter period.
  • Months of Inventory: The months of inventory, which indicates how long it would take to sell all available properties at the current sales pace, increased by 27% from May 2022 to May 2023. This suggests a shift towards a more balanced or potentially buyer-favored market with a higher supply of properties relative to demand during the later period.

In summary, the housing market in May 2023 exhibited several notable differences compared to May 2022. New inventory, sold properties, average sale price, median sale price, median price per square foot, and sale volume decreased. With fewer homes being listed and fewer selling, the market remains more balanced than in recent memory.

The average days on the market increased, suggesting a potentially slower sales cycle. Additionally, the months of inventory increased, indicating a shift towards a more balanced market with higher supply relative to demand.

It is essential to note that the provided statistics are specific to the given timeframe and location. Further analysis and consideration of additional factors are necessary to understand the local housing marke dynamics comprehensively.

For example, when we comnpare month over month, sales and prices have picked up in 2023, just still not high as they were during the same period in 2022, as the Case-Shiller MSA report for the Bay Area illustrates.

If this trajectorty continues, we expect by October 2023, YOY homes values will be higher than in 2022.

Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions or need more information.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 30 years of experience helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

For all you need to know about Belmont, subscribe to this blog right here. You can also follow us on Facebook and on Twitter.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice or substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Market Report–Belmont Home Sales April 2009

The homes sale report for April shows a continuing slide in both sales and median price for the Peninsula cities, though we appear to have a lull in the action.

Take the median price of single family homes in San Mateo County for example. In April of 2008 it stood at $925,000. This April that number came in at $610,000–a whopping 34% decrease. Sales have dropped 15% over last year at the same time and 40% off the peak of the market in 2005. Yet every month so far this year the median price has been creeping back up, ever so slightly. Exciting news? Not really. The median price almost without fail creeps up this time of year.

Belmont Apr 2009

(Click on the image to see a full sized graphic)

For Belmont, April home sales came in at a disappointing 13 for the entire month, a 38% decrease over last year’s more typical 21 sales for the month.

The median price came in at $775,000, considerably off of the $930,000 reported just last April. The size homes which sold last April were only slightly larger–3.7%. Which means that the calculated median home price loss of 16.6% might be closer to only 13%, if that makes anyone feel any better.

And don’t expect to get close to what you are asking. On average in Belmont sellers are receiving only 94.84% of their asking price and it is taking about 33% longer for them to get less for their home.  Don’t think that isn’t hurting agents too. Agents who are listing homes for sale are finding it takes longer to sell a home. Longer listing periods can mean thousands more in advertising costs and with values dropping, thousands less in commissions.

Click here to see April sales report for surrounding cities.