A Tale of Two Cities—How Strong Is the Market? A Local Look at Belmont, San Carlos & San Mateo County

Tale of Two Cities

Belmont– Local Market

Belmont is still a seller’s market, but pricing accuracy matters more than it did last year.

  • Homes are still selling quickly, but not every home is automatically getting multiple offers.
  • Buyers are more selective—they’re paying premiums for:
    • Walkable neighborhoods
    • Updated homes
    • Large Lots & Views
    • Good school access
  • Overpricing now leads to longer days on market, which didn’t matter as much in 2024.
  • Well-priced homes are still selling at or above list price, just with fewer “emotion-driven” bids.
  • Inventory remains very tight, which continues to protect values.

Belmont hasn’t softened—it’s just gotten smarter.

San Carlos – Local Market

San Carlos is one of the strongest-performing markets on the Peninsula right now.

  • Demand remains extremely strong, especially near:
    • Downtown
    • Laurel Street
    • Good elementary schools
  • Prices have continued to rise, even as other cities leveled off.
  • Homes that show well and are priced correctly often sell fast and above asking.
  • Buyers are still willing to stretch for:
    • Turnkey homes
    • Flat lots
    • Walkability and lifestyle
  • Inventory is near zero, which is keeping upward pressure on prices.

San Carlos is following in Belmont’s footsteps, doing what Belmont did a year ago.

Belmont

  • Median price essentially flat: $2.423M → $2.418M
  • $/SqFt down: $1,308 → $1,244
  • Still selling over list (106%)

Stabilizing after a blow-off year—still competitive, but more rational.

San Carlos

  • Median price: $2.41M → $2.65M ⬆ +10%
  • Sales volume up +21%
  • Inventory remains near zero

One of the strongest appreciation stories in 2025.

San Mateo County – Big Picture (YOY)

Sales Activity & Volume

  • Closed sales:
    • 2024: 3,569
    • 2025: 3,822 ⬆ +7.1%
  • Total sales volume:
    • 2024: $9.07B
    • 2025: $10.10B ⬆ +11.3%
  • The market didn’t just rise in price—it expanded in depth. More transactions and more dollars moved through the system.

Pricing

  • Median sale price:
    • $1,950,000 → $1,980,000 ⬆ +1.5%
  • Average sale price:
    • $2.54M → $2.64M ⬆ +4.0%
  • Median $/SqFt:
    • $1,157 → $1,146 ⬇ -0.9%

2026 Market Outlook: What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

The Belmont, San Carlos, and broader San Mateo County markets enter 2026 from a position of strength and stability, not excess. The data from 2024 and 2025 show steady demand, limited inventory, and pricing that continues to be supported by fundamentals rather than speculation.

For sellers, this means the market is still favorable—but no longer forgiving. Homes that are well prepared and accurately priced from the start are likely to attract strong interest. Overpricing, which buyers tolerated in prior years, is increasingly leading to longer market times and missed opportunities. In 2026, strategy and presentation will matter as much as location.

For buyers, conditions are improving modestly. While inventory remains tight, competition has become more measured. Buyers who are well-qualified, decisive, and realistic are finding more opportunities to negotiate—especially on homes that miss the market’s initial pricing window.

Looking ahead, price growth is expected to be moderate rather than explosive, with neighborhood-specific performance playing a larger role than countywide trends. Markets like San Carlos may continue to show momentum, while markets like Belmont are likely to reward consistency and long-term value.
This is shaping up to be a market that favors informed decisions over emotion, rewarding those who understand timing, pricing, and local nuances.

Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They have assisted buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond Award, ranking among the top 50 agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California, according to RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or emailinfo@morganhomes.com.

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This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice; it cannot replace advice tailored to your situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional familiar with your scenario.

BROKER | MANAGER | NOTARY

Belmont Week in Review–December 17th 2008

NEW LISTINGS

The holidays are in full swing and you can tell by the deafening silence that Belmont’s housing activity is slower than the holiday deliveries promised by UPS. A very unscientific barometer is our phones are eerily quiet (which is not a bad thing one time of the year) but some ringing other than the Salvation Army’s bells would still be welcome—let’s not jinx anything.

The inventory of homes for sale is at 40—down considerably from just a few weeks ago. Unfortunately it’s not sales that have been driving the numbers lower but rather sellers have thrown in the towel for the year as ten homes were taken off of the market. We just closed escrow on the last two homes we will sell in 2008 and now it’s so quiet that we decided to take a week off from posting homes for sale to take a break and trade the stress of work for the equally demanding stress of preparing for entertaining the family for Christmas. Don’t get me wrong, we love the holidays but it’s non-stop entertaining 24/7 for three days around here.

Our next post about the housing picture will be our year-end wrap-up in early January where we stick our necks out and make foolhardy predictions which can only backfire in today’s economy. Nevertheless we’ll hold true to our word and re-cap last year’s predications (ugh) and try to realistically let you know where we think things are headed in 2009, as well as give the year-end results from one of the most tumultuous real estate years in history.

Stay tuned though as we'll invariably come up with a few fun posts before the year is out.

Until then, Happy Holidays!Christmas Tree

There have been only three new listings in Belmont in the past two weeks.

Debbie 1 Debbie Lane—3 Bed 2 bath 1,800 Sq. Ft. home on a 5,850 Sq. Ft. lot. LISTED for $ 998,000. This is a good solid home at a fair price and located on a small cul-de-sac on Belmont’s eastern hills exposure (than means warmer). It has a usable level rear yard and hopefully you’ll like the small pool or else you can fill it in. It last sold for $740,000 in 2003 during a lull in the market. No OPEN HOUSES listed. Listed By Deborah Mitchell Hawes, Coldwell Banker.

El Camino 820 El Camino Real—5 Bed 3 bath 1,800 Sq. Ft. home. This place has been a rental and really that’s what it should continue to be used for. It offers great tenant parking which of course is very desirable considering the home is on the El Camino. NO OPEN HOUSE LISTED. Listed By H. Craig Thorson, Red Hawk Real Estate Inc.

Yorkshire 418 Yorkshire—3 Bed 1 Bath 1,010 Sq. Ft. home on a 5,000 Sq. Ft. lot. LISTED for $ 577,900. With all of the sales in this area over $600,000 this home is priced to sell. Here’s a perfect well kept home at a discount. This is our BEST DEAL of the week. NO OPEN HOUSES LISTED. Listed By Michael A. Ames, Patriot Properties.

 

No Homes went into a pending status in the last two weeks.

 

SOLD HOMES

 

Well, sold home actually.

 

Fairway ↔1636 Fairway Drive 3 Bed 1.5 Bath 1,720 Sq. Ft. home on a 6,000 Sq. Ft. USABLE lot. LISTED for

$799,000 and sold in 33 days for $799,000. This home has potential but also needed a lot of work. Located on the site of the old golf course in Belmont and an appropriately named (and desirable) street.

 

Belmont Housing Review–August 2008

August, 2008

The data for the summer months suggests Belmont’s housing sector may be near or at the bottom for any market corrections though the picture outside the mid-peninsula remains uncertain. Belmont is a micro-market and we take this position not because all of the data points to positive market indicators, but rather the data points are all in flux. Arrow_ride_2

Taken as a whole, the sumer wasn’t bad to Belmont sellers at all. But like we’ve said before, it’s extremely hard to telll how bad a storm will be when you are in the middle of one; but all storms do pass and we’re getting a glimpse of daylight in our numbers. Whichever is the case– whether we are near the bottom or passed it–we’re all along for the ride, for better or for worse.

Instability in these critical numbers such as the amount a seller receives of their asking price, the median price compared to the size homes actually sold month-over-month is indicative of a market in change. In other words there is no real direction in which all the numbers point—whether it’s a buyer or seller’s market.

Belmont_aug_2008 ←Click on the spreadsheet for a larger size.

↓The number of sales in August fell to only 17 after posting a year high of 25 in July (there were 22 last year at this time). Though sales were down 32%, there were also 22% fewer homes to sell.

↑The median price however rose to $947,000 from $890,000 in July. In August last year the median price was $988,500. See our post on the median price correlation and the size of homes selling to put these wild fluctuations in perspective.

↓The time it took to sell a home went from 14 days in July to 41 in August. That’s a strong indicator that the slow summer months liquidated some old inventory; remember most of July’s sales were consummated in May and June.

↓The amount the seller received of their asking price dropped a whopping 7% from 98.37% in July to 91% in August and dropped 11% over last year when it stood at 102%. This statistic is understandable when homes are selling in 41 days instead of 14 as they did last month. Homes which are overpriced and languish on the market tend to sell way under what they should, but we’ll save that for our next post. Still, you can’t help but compare this to last year’s performance and give it a big red arrow.

This fall we expect sales will pick up a bit from August but still remain under last year’s numbers. This winter could be relatively quiet but we expect next spring to determine the fate of the local market into 2009.

Data extracted from the Multiple Listing Serice for San Mateo County.

The information contained in this postis educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.