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Continue readingBelmont Home Sales – November 2010
We love the holidays as much as anyone, but a little less red in the chart would be nice too.
Belmont home sales for November of 2010 continued the trend of the last two quarters with fewer sales and declining home values as compared to the same period in 2009.
(Click on the chart to see a full-sized image)
Clearly consumer confidence is woefully short of normal. While consumer confidence does not in and of itself control the direction of the economy it does reflect consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment is well represented by consumer spending—when consumers are comfortable with their view of the future they tend to spend more. Considering that some estimate consumer spending to represent 2/3rds of our nation’s domestic product (GDP) suffice to say that consumer confidence is necessary for a sustained recovery. For consumer confidence to rebound there needs to be more jobs and of course the feeling that the job one has won’t go away soon either. On a positive note the consumer confidence index rose to 54.1 in November from a revised 49.9 in October. It was the highest level in five months. The index was benchmarked at 100 in 1985, a year chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough in consumer confidence.
How does this affect the housing market? The tenuous job market is taking its toll on nervous home buyers. Buyers are still purchasing homes but fewer can qualify for a loan and when they do it’s usually for less home than before. Those who are willing to purchase a home seem to want only exceptional deals—building into their offer price a buffer against further price declines.
SALES
Home sales in Belmont remained fairly strong considering the aporetic feelings among buyers.
This November we saw 16 homes trade hands in Belmont as compared to 22 in 2009.
Of the 16 sales, six sold for on average $21,350 more than the seller’s asking price in 17 days, one sold at the asking price, and nine sold for on average $16,500 less and took 82 days to sell.
Six sellers also reduced the price they were originally asking for their home by on average by $149,342, while last year there were only three homes which had price reductions during the same period and for on average only $13,590.
MEDIAN PRICE
The median price (on paper) went up 5.4% to $843,475 from November 2009 when it was $800,000. However, in 2009 the median size home which sold was only 1,558 square feet as compared to this November when the median size home sold was 1,920 square feet—a difference of 352 square feet. At the median price per square foot that homes sold for during November, $466 and the difference in the size home sold, 352 sq. ft. one could make an argument that if all things were equal (the same size home selling in the two periods) the adjusted price for 2009 would be closer to $964,032 ((352 Sq. Ft. x $466 per sq. ft. = $164,032) + $800,000) =$964,032. This allows us to estimate that home values dropped around 12.5% year over year in the month of November. How much the median price changed for the year as a whole is yet to be determined. Remember, just because homes dropped 12.5% in the month of November, earlier increases in the year can mean at year's end the median price could be up for down from the previous year.
It’s also interesting to note that although the median size home which sold in November of 2010 was much larger, only one home sold over the one million dollar mark as compared to three in 2009.
DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)
Not surprisingly it took more time to sell a home this year than last–on average 62 days—up dramatically from 38.5 days in November of 2009. One also must be cognizant that last November the first-time buyer tax credit was in effect which skewed the numbers in favor of more sales, selling faster, and for more.
When home values are dropping, the time it takes to sell a home typically increases as sellers often price their home based on recent past sales. But when home values are falling, recent sales were worth more. Eventually most sellers get the idea that they must get ahead of the pricing curve and lower their home more than the market suggests it might be worth. This has an ancillary effect of lowering home values rapidly and perhaps more than they would otherwise drop.
Noting the huge difference in not only the number of homes which had price reductions, but the steep adjustments that were made, illustrates the difficulty in pricing a home in a declining market and underscores the importance of introducing your home to the market at the right price.
Summary
There’s always some danger in looking at a small market sample such as Belmont with only 16 sales in a given month. Seasonal factors play heavily in the statistics which is why we choose to compare each month we examine to the same month a year before. However, it’s important to note that other factors can effect comparing these two periods. For example, last November the first-time buyer tax credit was expiring, causing many buyers to rush to the bargaining table. This increased competition for homes undoubtedly buoying the prices while increasing sales.
Our leading indicators of future market conditions indicate a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
- The Institute for Supply Management reported that the monthly composite index of manufacturing activity fell slightly to 56.6 in November after reaching 56.9 in October. A reading above 50 signals expansion. It was the 16th straight month of expansion.
- Total construction spending rose 0.7% to $802.3 billion in October, following a revised 0.7% increase in September. Economists had anticipated a drop of 0.4% in October.
- The National Association of Realtors reported that its pending home sales index, a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts, rose 10.4% in October after a 1.8% decrease in September.
- The Institute for Supply Management reported that the monthly composite index of non-manufacturing activity rose to 55 in November from 54.3 in October. A reading above 50 signals expansion. It was the 11th straight month of expansion.
On a local level our professional staging company has reported to us that their orders for staged homes are booking up fast for January, indicating that Sellers are interested in getting a jump on the spring market.
If you are considering selling your home next year you may want to consider doing it sooner rather than later before inventory rises to levels which make price reductions necessary to attract Buyers.
If you are considering selling your current home and/or purchasing a new one be sure and contact us for your real estate needs.
Now for the inevitable disclaimer: The information contained in this newsletter is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.
Belmont Home Values – Report for August 2010
There’s little change to report for sales in Belmont for the month of August 2010 but the Case-Shiller report which was released on September 26th showed another increase in the Bay Area metropolitan index for the sixth straight reporting period. This index follows the change in home prices across the country in 20 metropolitan areas. Their complete methodology can be found here.
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MEDIAN PRICE:
The median price rose to $885,750 over $837,500 in August of 2009. That represents a 6% increase but is partially negated because the pool of homes which sold were also 14% larger.
SALES:
Home sales remained flat as compared to the previous month but the 20 sales in August 2010 were four more than August 2009.
DOM: (Days on Market)
The days a home took to sell were on average 44—almost half of what it was a year ago.
Of the 20 sales in August only three homes sold for over their asking price for an average of $15,000 more, while four sold right at the asking price and 13 sold for on average $30,000 less.
Belmont Home Values – Report for July 2010
Belmont homes sales in July are just the thing headlines are made of.
Last month the median home price in Belmont was $ 975,000 and July it dropped 9% to $885,000. That doesn’t bode well for the positive home sales headlines, but rest assured the median size home that sold last month was also 18% larger. Comparing July sales this year to that of last July, in 2009 the median home price dropped 4.4%, but once again the size home which sold last July were 16% larger. What good does it do to report the median price when it varies from month to month so dramatically? Adjusting for the size home which sold can give us an indication of whether values are going up or down based on examining the price as adjusted for the size home selling. Clearly the values have gone up, even though the median price appears to have fallen.
Sales
The number of homes which sold did disappoint us. This July saw only 20 homes close escrow as opposed to 32 in June and 31 last July. Since the “sales†,or homes which closed escrow in July were no doubt actually “sold†in June, we also looked at the number of pending sales in July—homes which will close escrow in August. That stood at only 15 which is right in line with the last two years’ performance.
DOM
The time it took to sell a home this July was 27 days, down from 46 in June and 34 last July. That’s a good number to track to see where the momentum may be headed.
Percent Received
Sellers will be happy to note that on average they received $35,000 over their asking price with the average seller getting over 100%. Only four of the homes lowered their asking price—with one caveat these numbers are slightly skewed because one home received an offer $100,000 over their asking price. Nine sellers still accepted an offer less than asking—on average $23,000 less, with six sellers receiving what they were asking.
Inventory
Inventory levels remain high for this time of year. The number of available homes for sale is at 71; up from June’s 66 and last July’s 57. More supply would typically put downward pressure on prices, and 71 homes for sale his higher than normal. However, the increase is still well within healthy standards. The months of inventory—the time it would talk to deplete the inventory of homes for sale at the current rate they are selling—is at 3.7, a far cry from the national rate of nine months. This was helped by fewer home being listed for sale in July—only 27.
We attribute the increased inventory to several factors. Some sellers may need to sell their home and they’ve waited as long as they can, and/or sellers want to move and take advantage of lower interest rates on a move-up or retirement home. In any case more sellers are selling and some buyers are buying.
If you are thinking of selling your home this year the window of opportunity is upon us. The second wave buying season gets into full swing just after Labor Day. That gives us just enough time to get your home ready to show at its best. Give us a call for an interview if you are in the mood for a move.
Belmont – Home sales for June 2010 in 94002
SALES
Home sales in Belmont held their own as 25 homes sold in the month of June. Last month as you may recall 34 homes sold, the most in as many months. In June of 2009 20 homes sold and last year there wasn't a looming deadline to close escrow for a tax credit.
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Speaking of tax credit, don’t forget we’ve effectively extended the $8,000 tax credit by offering any first time buyer 1% of the purchase price as a credit towards their closing costs for anyone who buys a home through us and closes escrow between now and September 30th 2010.
MEDIAN PRICE
The median price took another jump up from $848,500 last month to $975,000—a 15% increase. The size homes which sold during the same period were about 10% larger so there was still some upward pressure on prices not just the fact that larger homes were selling.
DOM
The time it took to sell a home in Belmont was up from 25 days last month to 46 days in June; a pattern that more-or-less holds true each year as folks have graduations and vacations on their minds in lieu of house hunting.
INVENTORY
The number of homes for sale has stayed relatively flat at 66 as compared to 60 in May and 62 one year ago. And the number of new listings appears flat too at around 30 each month. As long as sales continue at this pace inventory should remain in check.
With interest rates hitting the lowest point since records were kept it has helped spur refinances and it remains to be seen if it will spur more fist time homebuyer sales. If you are considering buying a home on the peninsula with rates and values at what appear to be the trough, you may want to consider getting that home you’ve always wanted but perhaps held off for until more favorable conditions—they’re here.
Don't forget we update the market statistics for San Mateo County, San Carlos, Redwood City and Redwood Shores each month on our web site at MorganHomes.com.
Belmont Homes Sales Price Report for March 2010
Belmont had an interesting month this March.
The big news—which shouldn’t be news at all—is that the median price of homes in Belmont shot up 24% from $800,000 last month to $994,750 in March. Alas the size home also shot up 43% which more than negates any increase in the real median price of homes.
(Click on the spreadsheet for a full size image)
That said, other factors are showing indication of a more robust sellers market than in previous months.
Not to be overlooked is the home on Bayview which listed for $688,000 and sold for $914,500—a whopping 133% of the asking price. Of course the home had many multiple offers and many which bid far above the original asking price—apparently grossly underpriced.
That’s only $390/square foot with the average Belmont home selling at $417. If this home had sold at what the agent had listed it fo,r it would have sold for $294/square foot a ridiculously low amount.
The time it took to sell a home was down a little bit form 81 days in February to 76 in March.
SALES
The exact same (ten) number of homes sold in March which was down from 13 a year ago. That’s a bit of a surprise since the market should be getting better. Our take on this is that in January and February of 2009 sales were so low—a combined ten for the two months—that in March of 2009 there were was a slight pent-up demand caused by the slow start to the year, increasing March’s sales figures.
Four homes sold under asking again and on average each took around a $50,000 price reduction. Three of those had to accept an even lower price of on average $40,000 more from where they had already lowered the price.
PERSPECTIVE
Watch for rate hikes to initially spur home sales as buyers scramble like musical chairs to get into a home before the rates start to climb. The Fed has halted its purchasing of mortgage backed notes which means it up to the public appetite for these investments to set the pace and the rates. If rates climb too much too fast, watch for homes sales to drop off and values to continue to dip.
Belmont, Ca Home Sale Report for February 2010
We’ve been swamped with business this year and with rolling out our new web page to boot we are just now able to settle down and look at February’s homes sale price figures for Belmont. Believe me, we’re dutifully aware that March’s numbers are available soon and we promise to deliver them in a more timely manner.
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MEDIAN PRICE
Once again the median price in Belmont was, in practicality, unchanged. Those of you who follow our posts know we endeavor to portray the most accurate market snapshot as possible. In doing so, we not only report the median price statistic as per our MLS system, but we delve deeper to see if larger or smaller homes sold which can dramatically change the results in a small market sample, such as Belmont, which has relatively few sales each month.
Even though the median price dropped from January’s $850,000 to $800,000 in February (5.9%), the size homes which sold were significantly, (8%) smaller.
Year over the year, the median price home sold in Belmont went from $714,500, last February, to today’s February price of $800,000—an increase of 12% with an increase of the size home sold in the two periods of 14%. Viewed from another perspective, the median size home dropped about 2% year over year in the same periods.
DOM
Homes are still staying on the market for a longer than usual time. This February it to 81 days to sell the average home as compared to 78 days last year. The first quarter of the year includes many homes left over from the winter months and we expect this time (DOM) to drop in the spring selling season, as it typically does.
SALES
Ten homes sold this February as compared to just six last year. Of the ten sold, two sold over asking, two sold at their asking price and six sold for less than asking.
In perspective—
The local market continues to be riding a rollercoaster fueled by uncertain feelings on the part of many buyers and sellers. Some buyers are jumping back into the market with both feet and offering sellers thousands of dollars over the asking price for highly desirable properties, and others are sitting on the sideline thinking there could be another double dip.
March’s numbers are due out in a few days which we predict will show more of the same, with the number of sales increasing and the median price continuing its unremarkable recovery.
Belmont Housing Market Report for November 2009
Well it’s another one of those tricky months where the numbers tell an inaccurate story when it comes to the value of Belmont homes.
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MEDIAN HOME PRICE
Looking at the raw numbers, the median home value in Belmont dropped from $912,500 last November to $784,000 this year. That’s a whopping 14% decrease but wait—let’s look at what really happened.
This November Belmont had three short sales which greatly impacted the results. More importantly was that the majority of the homes sold were much smaller than they were last year. Larger homes sell for less per square foot (since land is a constant). Therefore if many smaller homes sell in a given period the price per square foot statistic will rise while the median home price will fall. Watch for this inversely proportional relationship to guess when there might be more to the story than meets the eye.
The median size Belmont home which sold in 2008 was 2095 Sq. Ft. and only 1568 in 2009. The difference of 342 square feet multiplied by the smaller price per square foot median of $488 last year means the adjusted median home value in Belmont this November would be $950,000, or an increase of 4%.
NUMBER OF SALES
The most impressive statistic is the number of sales which at 22 almost tripled from 2008. That speaks volumes as to consumer confidence in the local market. If sales were up because values were dramatically depressed, that would not be nearly as impressive. Of course the artificial interest rates people are enjoying right now are no doubt a contributing factor in the number of buyers who see an opportunity to lock in a home with a 30 year mortgage for under 5%–better move soon if that’s an important factor in your home buying decision.
DOM
The time it took to sell a home is virtually unchanged but it’s interesting to note, after much analysis, that the actual DOM this November was 121, not 39. This is because several of the short sales which took FOREVER to sell (usually because the banks are really bad at getting around to looking at offers) skewed the numbers (see the lower row of adjusted sales).
% Received
The percent a seller received of asking remains as a statistic, virtually unchanged; however this number varies dramatically from home to home.
What’s our take on this?
The Belmont market appears to be stabilizing in a comfort zone where buyers can still get reasonable deals and most sellers still have ample equity.
Call today if you are thinking of a move in 2010!
Belmont Market Report–October 2009
Changes to the Belmont home market seemed to have slowed recently.
(click the graph for a full sized image) Data retreived from the MLS.
MEDIAN PRICE
In 2008 the median home price stood at $960,000 in the month of October. This year, it has dropped to $865,000.
Once again the numbers are a bit misleading. The size home which sold last year in October was 150 square feet larger. The adjusted median home price for Belmont this year should be $938,000 which would put the median drop at a paltry 2.2% year over year.
DOM
The sellers in Belmont are still receiving around 99% of their asking price, just that they have to ask a little less this year.
SALES
Sales dropped from September but were almost double what they were last year at this time–reflecting more confidence in the market. Of course this number may be influenced by a mad dash of buyers availing themselves of the $8,000 tax credit.
So far 1.2 million buyers have qualified for the $8,000 tax credit. 40% of those said they would not have considered buying a home without it. 70% said it weighed heavily on their decision to purchase e home. Really? All it takes is an $8,000 credit and people are willing to buy a home?
The graph below shows the sales in Belmont for the month of October 2009. Since homes are sometimes relisted, the total days on market and original list price totals can be skewed. We searched the records and reported the actual data—noted by the green dots in the columns. This helps portray a more accurate picture of the time it takes to sell a home and the price a seller receives. Of the 14 sales in October one sold for asking in ten days. Seven sold for less than asking and were on the market an average of 113 days when they received, on average, ~$14,000 less than their LOWERED asking price. The sellers that appropriately priced their home fared much better, receiving on average $2,000 more than their asking price (we defined pricing a home right when it sells within the first month) and sold on average in only 33.5 says. More money, faster sale, one wold think every seller would try to price their home right.
Belmont Home Sales — August 2009
August turned out to be a respectable month for Belmont sales with at 16 it was just one sale shy of last year.
DOM
You might notice a few oddities in the Days on Market stat. First, our MLS did away with Original Days on market vs. Days on Market as they felt it was simply too confusing. Original Days on market counted from when the home was first listed for sale and the old DOM stat simply kept tract of the most recent listing. Now, the DOM stat is for as long as the home was listed for sale—even with various brokers—with the caveat that if a home was de-listed for more than 30 days it resets to zero.
Percent of Asking
True to form homes that languish on the market received less than their faster selling counterparts. Note that of the ten homes that sold in their first 25 days of being listed did not have to lower their price with six selling on average for $23,000 over their asking and the remaining four for $22,000 under.
Of the six homes that were listed for more than 25 days ALL sold for under their ORIGINAL asking price—on average the seller received $86,000 less or 97% of asking as compared to well priced homes which received 104% of asking (Read was originally listed at $1,125,000 and Arroyo at $769,000 before being re-listed at a lower number that skews the results).
Median Price
The median price of homes selling in August was $837,500 and the median size home sold was 1655 square feet. Last month the median price was $917,000 but the home sold were larger at a median point of 1,860 square feet.
Last year in August the Median price was $947,000 but the size home was also much larger at 2,030.
If you work out the numbers the values really haven't changed much at all over last August, though for the entire year they are down closer to 12%.
The fall selling season is just getting started with another full quarter soon to review. If you are thinking of selling this year now’s the time to take action—the best time is between now and Thanksgiving.