Tariff Wars & Market Uncertainty: What It Means for Real Estate

Tariffs may not hit Belmont directly, but the ripple effects are real.

• The new administration’s sweeping tariffs on foreign goods aren’t targeting housing markets outright.
• However, the resulting market uncertainty is beginning to shift buyer and seller behavior across the Bay Area.
• Unlike areas reliant on imported construction materials, local markets like Belmont are more exposed to financial sentiment than lumber costs.

Uncertainty is a bigger threat than tariffs themselves.

• Consumer confidence is taking a hit—not just from the tariffs but also from how they’ve been rolled out: suddenly and without clear direction.
• Stock market volatility is keeping would-be homebuyers on the sidelines.
  • Many Bay Area buyers are heavily invested in equities.
  • Losses in their portfolios make them hesitant to liquidate assets for home purchases.
• That hesitation translates to a “wait-and-see” stance:
  • Waiting on the Fed.
  • Waiting on the economy.
  • Waiting on prices to dip or recession signs to emerge.

Interest rates aren’t helping.

• The Fed was expected to cut rates. That expectation is now on hold.
• Inflationary pressures from tariffs are prompting a more cautious FED approach.
• Without lower rates, many sellers who were holding out for better conditions are simply adjusting to the new norm of a 6%-plus mortgage rate and moving forward.
• Note: Interest rates are still on par or below historic norms.

Belmont’s housing market is adjusting to the new climate.

• Sales:
  • January started slowly.
  • February saw a surprising surge.
  • March leveled out with modest gains.

Listings:

• January listings were up 70% year-over-year — likely sellers who finally accepted current rate realities.
  • Growth in listings has since moderated.

Inventory:

• March inventory reached 26 active listings in Belmont.
  • That’s a meaningful uptick in a tight market.
  • The Months of Inventory figure hit 1.2 months, nearly double January and February.
  • Still a seller’s market — but trending more balanced.

Bottom Line:

• The local market is resilient, but not immune.
• Buyers are cautious. Sellers are adjusting.
• If current trends hold, Q2 will give us a clearer picture of where home values are headed under the weight of tariffs and tempered confidence.

Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They have assisted buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond award and ranked among the top 50 agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California by RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or emailinfo@morganhomes.com.

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This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice, and it cannot replace advice tailored to your specific situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional who is familiar with your scenario.

22 Cadiz Circle stands quiet at the edge of Redwood Shores, tucked into the Sunrise enclave where the land meets the water. A single-story home, settled deep in the development, with its back to the wide, breathing expanse of the San Francisco Bay Trail and Steinberger Slough. Across the water, the Bair Island Ecological Reserve and Don Edwards Wildlife Refuge stretch out, untouched, steady.

However you like your media, we have a link for you.

Click here for either a video tour, 3D tour, or for a color brochure flip book.

Inside, the house has been reimagined—walls opened, space given room to breathe. The great room spills out in one sweep, light filling it from the preserve beyond. The kitchen holds its place, steady and strong. A garden window looks out over the patio, where mornings are still and evenings stretch long. Cabinets of rich wood, soft-close, easy. Stainless steel appliances—BOSCH silent style dishwasher, induction stove, a Zephyr-hooded GE oven and microwave, a French-door refrigerator, a wine cooler waiting for a reason to be opened. The quartz counters, smooth and cool, contrast the deep blue cabinetry, the eat-at bar inviting slow mornings and easy meals.

Beyond, the dining room watches over the living room. The ceiling rises high, a cathedral of light. The fireplace waits for colder nights. Beyond the glass doors, the open land holds still, an unbroken view stretching past the entertainment patio.

One bedroom rests nearby, close to the remodeled hall bath. The primary suite, set apart, is its own retreat—a quiet, cooled space with a bath that holds its comforts. Floating cabinetry, marble counters, a walk-in shower, a private water closet.

The garage, built for two cars, sits right off the kitchen, making returns easy, departures smooth.

Just down the road, the Bay Club hums with life. The Shores shopping center stands close, Nob Hill Foods at its heart, and casual dining spots gathered around it. The town moves, the tide shifts, but here, at 22 Cadiz Circle, there is stillness. A place to pause. A place to call home.