Can San Mateo Survive a Tidal Wave?

San Mateo County Market Snapshot–Are We Treading Water?   

Those of you who follow our market updates know we put our hometown, Belmont, under a market microscope every month to get a glimpse as to where the market appears to be headed.

Of course that really is living in a Petri dish when it comes to the real estate market as a whole.

Real estate is very local—what goes on in even one part of a city could be entirely different from another. That said eventually positive market trends trickle down and negative ones up.

As evidence of this phenomenon one can go back and look at our charts from 2007 when Palo Alto was still doing famously yet Daly City may as well have slid into the ocean (many homeowners probably wish it had).

 

Today we visit the numbers—year over year—for San Mateo County as a whole, hoping to see some trends that will give us an inkling as to where consumer sentiment is, as reflected in sales, median price, etc.

SALES

New Listings

Current Inventory

Closed Sales

Average DOM

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

% LP Rec'd

Total $ Vol

 2011   545

1400

233

74

786,509

587,500

96.48

182,470,145
               

2010   484

1156

229

82

840,235

650,000

97.17

192,413,866

2009   530

1452

163

74

683,900

553,750

97.20

110,791,806

 

 

              

It’s easy to see that the ripples of consumer uncertainty could easily capsize the boat of recovery if the tides of low interest rates come in too fast. Cast-of-gilligans-island

Sales are certainly better than the low of 2009 and remain steady as they did in our Belmont example. But as in the Belmont report the median price showed a decline in home values since last January. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, especially if you are a potential home buyer and it doesn’t mean values are still dropping, just that they did drop year over year.

Interest rates are going up, and have done so rapidly in the last few months—around ¾ of a point. That hurts the ability for people to qualify for a home and with less demand there’s a potential for prices to decrease further.

But as we cautioned ourselves, we are comparing 2010–a year of government sponsored tax rebates to 2011 without. Let's see if our minnow of a recovery can weather the storm without a life raft.

Thanks for checking back in with us. 

*Data San Mateo County MLS.

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.

 

 

Belmont Home Prices Decline Further

We’re only one month into 2011 and already things are interesting.

Belmont home sales in January 2011 remained brisk. There were twelve homes which closed escrow in January, one more than last year but eight more than in 2009.

It appears a small trend has developed indicating January 2009, as suspected, was the low point for real estate.


 Glass But we aren’t out of the woods yet. Depending on who’s talking to you—a glass half full or half empty person—we’re either headed into a slow recovery or its lull in the action before a double dip. Never mind the glass is completely empty person—they’ll always be waiting for the “right time” to buy a home yet never do.

The definition of a double dip is when things get worse than they were at the trough of a business cycle. Considering how bad things were at one point in this last cycle, we find that implausible—that the state of affairs could get worse but hey, we don’t read tea leaves either. Of course that’s not to say things can't remain in a state of unsteadiness for years to come.

Within this recovery there will undoubtedly be micro swings in prices and sales which are highly dependent on consumer confidence, and of course interest rates. The media will predictably pounce on these blips on the radar screen—stay tuned.

January bel 2011

Click on the chart to see a full-sized version. And yes, those are Green Bay colors…

NEW LISTINGS

The number of new listings for Belmont in January 2011 stood at 24—six more than in 2010. The inventory levels for these same periods were 38 for 2011 and 35 for 2010.  The more interesting stat is the months of inventory—how long it would take to sell all of the homes at the current pace and inventory levels—a ratio if you will.

In January of 2009 it stood at over 10 months, and the last two January’s have seen that fall to just around 3 months. On a national level the country would be thrilled to see those numbers—the nation is hovering around the 11 month levels—six months defines a stable market.

Why then did prices still fall? Simple. Consumer confidence remains weak.

Sales are on the rise because sellers have become realistic about their home’s value, not because demand has increased. The months of inventory has remained low because many sellers aren't selling their homes. In Belmont, when inventory levels reach more than 50 homes for sale we experience a buyers’ market. Yet with inventory levels currently at 38 homes for sale, why then is it not a seller’s market?

Well the short answer is it is and it isn’t. Seller’s are managing to create a faux seller’s market by listing homes low and creating a bidding war, and keeping inventory levels low (no it’s not a conspiracy it’s just that a lot of sellers either can’t sell or won’t until prices go back up). The truth is buyers can be pickier in some instances; but with inventory levels this low it means it may take a long time to find the home they want.

Did Sellers get their Asking Price?

In January 2011 five of the 12 sellers lowered their asking price by on average $43,000 in order to attract a buyer. In 2010 that number was four sellers for an average of $65,000. Here’s the kicker—in 2010 all 11 homes sold for under the seller’s asking price; for on average $50,000 less, while in 2011 only seven homes sold for less than asking and only $30K (we threw out the one that was ridiculously off base).

So prices are up right? Nope. Sellers are just more sensible.

The median price for a Belmont home in 2011 was $745,000—down from $850,000 in 2010 and the size homes selling in 2011 were a smaller which compounds the difference.

The median size home sold in 2011 was 106 square feet larger than in 2010. This means that even if the median price was unchanged, the size home you could buy for the same money increased 6%. Now let’s factor in the $50,000 median price decline which adds another 5.8% drop in value and you’re looking at almost 12% price decline year over year.

If you are a buyer you need to know that any potential savings you might reap by waiting to see if values decline further could easily be wiped out by an increase in interest rates. Now’s not a bad time to consider getting off the fence…

 

* Data extracted from the San Mateo County MLS

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.


 

Public announcement regarding health care for children

From the Department of Insurance:

Act Before March 1st to get Lower Premiums for the Health Care Your Children May Need!!

Important Enrollment Window Closing Soon

If your children are uninsured, there are new options to get them covered, but it's important to act now!
Visit finder.healthcare.gov to search for coverage options. 

Individual Insurance

With many employers cutting back on health insurance, more Californians may need to shop directly with an insurance company or insurance agent for child or family coverage. This "individual market" insurance can be expensive, but keeping some important rules in mind may help:

  • No More Denials for "Pre-Existing Conditions"
    Because of the new federal health care law, all children must be offered health coverage if they apply. Insurance companies can no longer deny kids coverage because of a "pre-existing condition" like asthma or diabetes.
  • Apply Before March 1st to Avoid Much Higher Costs
    If you wait and apply after the "open enrollment period" ends on March 1st, you could face much higher premium costs since there are no limits on premiums outside the open enrollment period. After March 1st, the next "open enrollment period" is the month your child was born. For example, if your child's birthday is August 8th, you can apply during the entire month of August, without facing significantly higher premiums. (There are other open enrollment periods based on changes in family circumstances such as a birth, divorce, job loss, or loss of public coverage.)
  • Keep Your Children Insured to Avoid Higher Costs
    You may face a significant penalty premium increase (20 percent) if you let your child's coverage end and then apply again, so keep your children insured.
  • You Have Protections if Your Child is Denied Coverage
    Remember, the health care law means that no child should be denied insurance for health reasons. If your child is denied coverage for any reason, call the state health insurance hotline at 1-888-466-2219.

Affordable Insurance Options: Healthy Families and Medi-Cal

Boy using inhalerIf a private insurance plan is unaffordable, don't give up. With the recession hitting California families hard, low-cost or no-cost insurance from Healthy Families and Medi-Cal keep millions of California kids healthy. Your child may qualify if your family income is up to roughly $46,000 annually (for a family of three – higher for larger families). For more information call 1-877-KIDS NOW or visit www.100percentcampaign.org/needinsurance/.

Your Job

If you have health coverage through your job, it is not affected by this open enrollment period and you should check with your employer to see if your child can join your health plan too.

 

Belmont Youth Hits Power Pole on Mezes

  Belmont
 
 

BELMONT POLICE DEPARTMENT

PRESS RELEASE

Pursuant to California Government Code § 6254(f)

____________________________________________________________________________________ 

Type of Incident:   Non-Injury Traffic Collision Knocks out Power       Case #: 1102-0002

 

Location:  2000 Blk Mezes Ave, Belmont                                                Date: 2/1/11    Time:  0845hrs

____________________________________________________________________________________

EVENT

A pick-up truck collided with a utility pole this morning, knocking out electrical service to a Belmont neighborhood.  There were no injuries, but approx. 200 customers lost power as a result of the collision. The cause of the collision is under investigation, but the following is known at this time.

 

At approx. 8:45am, a Chevrolet pick-up driven by a 17-year old Belmont youth, was westbound in the 2000 block of Mezes Ave, when the vehicle collided with a utility pole.  The pole broke in half as a result of the impact, bringing down live power lines onto the street.  Belmont Police, Belmont-San Carlos Fire and PG&E crews responded to the scene and secured the lines.  The driver was not injured and no other vehicles were involved. 

 

PG&E crews will be working throughout the day to erect a new utility pole and restore service to the neighborhood.  It is anticipated that electrical service will be restored by this evening.

 

 

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By:  Lieutenant Patrick Halleran                                                      Authorized By:  Captain Dan DeSmidt

Date:  2/1/11    Time:  1500hrs                                                         Date:  2/1/11    Time:  1500hrs

Publish

 

Best Home of the Week – 1-25-11

Even though we had a normal week with no holidays, and the list of homes to tour this Tuesday was as thick as a phone book for a small town, there really weren't and stand-outs in Belmont. Don't get us wrong there were some nice homes but it appears as though sellers think the market rebounded over the holiday and priced their homes in the stratosphere.

We chose this home in San Carlos because it's reasonably priced, in apparently good condition and is located on a coveted street in the White Oaks.

If you'd like to see this home, be sure and give us a call (650) 508-1441

Picture1

Property Overview

 

125 BELVEDERE AV

San Carlos (San Carlos) 94070

Detached Single Family (Class 1)

Beds, Baths:

3, 2|0

SqFt:

1,430

Lot:

4,600 sq ft

Yr Built / Age:

1946 / 65 years

Assoc Fee:

  

List Price:

$979,000

 

 

Extensively remodeled home ideally situated on a quiet street in the White Oaks neighborhood. Tastefully upgraded & remodeled 2 story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, plus a bonus room. Hardwood floors. Lovely large granite kitchen with ample counter space, all new stainless steel appliances and breakfast nook. Living room with a large window. Bonus rm on main level opens to level back yard

Best Home of the Week – 1-18-2011

Whenever a holiday falls on a Monday, many homes are not toured on our usual Tuesday tour day. Simply put they miss the tour sheet since the deadline is moved to the Friday preceding the holiday, instead of the usual Monday deadline.

So there weren’t a lot of homes to choose from but we did find this home in Redwood Shores which stood apart from the rest for the value it offers.

   

  

   
Redwood Shores 94065 (Redwood Shores)
$840,000 Beds: 3 beds Baths: 3|0 baths		  
DOM: 4   MLS: 81101788 
Property Overview
Redwood Shores (Redwood Shores) 94065
Detached Single Family (Class 1)
Beds, Baths: 3, 3|0
SqFt: 1,520
Lot: 2,828 sq ft
Yr Built / Age: 1998 / 13 years
Assoc Fee: $166
List Price: $840,000
Sale Price:  
Sale Date:  
COE Date:  
Remarks
Open Sunday 1/23 2-4PM. 13 yr old. High ceiling, fireplace & TV niche. Surround sound ready. Gleaming pecan hardwood floors downstairs. Separate dining room next to open kitchen w/ breakfast bar, Corian counters & ample maple cabinets. 1 br 1 ba down. Low maintenance garden. Roomy landing upstairs-home office space. 2 spacious master suites upstairs. Walk to playground, lagoon, new RWS school
Schools/Districts
Elem: - -/ Belmont-Redwood Shores Elementary
Middle: - -
High: - -/ Sequoia Union High
Property Features
Familyroom
No Family Room

Informal Dining Area
Breakfast Bar

Formal Dining Area
Separate Dining Room

Other Rooms
Utility Room

Bedroom Descriptions
2 or More Master Suites

Shower And Tub
2 or More Showers over Tubs

Shower
1 Stall Shower

Other Areas
Laundry Area – Inside

 Amenities
Cable TV Available
Double Pane Windows
Gas Hookup in Kitchen
High Ceilings
Satellite Dish

Fireplace Location
Fireplace in Living Room

Floor Covering(S)
Hardwood
Linoleum or Vinyl
Tile
Wall to Wall Carpeting

Energy Features
    - -

 Listing Includes
1 Dishwasher
1 Refrigerator
Disposal
Microwave Oven
Window Coverings

Garage/Parking
2 Car Garage
Attached

Lot Description
Level Lot

View
Neighborhood View

 Yards/Grounds
Patio
Sprinklers – Front
Sprinklers – Rear

Has Pool
No Pool

Pool Description
    - -

Pool Options
    - -

Style
    - -

Horse Property
No

Horse Property Description
    - -
Listed By Anna Ow, Coldwell Banker
Presented by Drew L. Morgan, RE/MAX Star Properties, dmorgan@morganhomes.com
** Information contained on this report is designed for accuracy but is not guaranteed **

 

 

Interested in this home? Why not give us a call. We here to answer any questions you have and help you on your way to home ownership. (650) 508-1441

 

 

Sales of Existing Homes Double in Belmont for December 2010.

For Belmont homeowners there appears to be some stability creeping into the market. Home sales were brisk this December—double what they were in 2009. Those of you who may remember the home buyer tax credit was due to end in November last year which pulled a lot of buyers from December sales into November—all across the country. Not so much in Belmont since the qualifying purchase price had to be less than $800,000. Nevertheless we went back to compare previous December sales and they normally fall in the area of 12 for the month of December. One has to go back to 2005 when the housing market was red hot to see sales figures this high.

These first two graphs illustrate the housing activity in Belmont for the Month of December 2010 and the year end averages for the entire year. Bel chart 1

 

 

 

Bel chrt 2 year end

If we run we run down the usual list of market indicators, across the board there are some positive signs for homeowners.

Belmont December 2010

*Highlighted homes were sold by Drew & Christine Morgan. Click on the graph for a full-sized image.

DOM

The time it took for a seller in Belmont to get a contract on their home was at 58, up only slightly from last year’s 50 and is pretty well mitigated with the doubling of sales.

PERCENT RECEIVED

Belmont sellers received 98.1% of their asking price in December 2010 as compared to 97.22 in December of 2009.

Half of the homes in December 2010 underwent price reductions for on average $58,000 before they sold. Last year 42% of sellers reduced their price by on average $69,000.

Of the 24 sales this last December two sold at the seller’s asking price, 16 sold for less than asking (by on average ($33,488), and six homes sold over the seller’s asking price by on average $17,183.

Homes which sold over asking did so on average in 26 days while homes which sold for less took more than 65 days to sell.*

MEDIAN SALE PRICE

If you’ve followed this blog for any length of time you’ve heard us talk about how deceiving the median price can be in any small sample size. Once again the median home price is a bit misleading as it has the median home price in Belmont in December of 2010 at $912,500. That’s $102,750 (12.7%) more than last year’s $809,750.

So the answer lies somewhere in the numbers but ferreting out a more accurate sense of value is difficult. The size homes which sold in 2009 were on average 277 square feet smaller than the homes which sold in December of 2010, which accounts for most of the perceived median price increase. It just so happens that the size home you could get this year was also around 13% larger than last year—effectively whipping out any gain.

Using the year-end totals helps even out some of the distortion inherent in median price figures as the graph above demonstrates. If you take an average of each month’s median home price in Belmont for 2009, the average median home price was $847,604 and for 2010 it was $908,159—an increase of 7.1%. The average size of the home which sold in the two periods also increased from 1730 in 2009 to 2000 in 2020, a 15.6% increase. So was there any home appreciation in Belmont in 2010? Probably not. It appeared that in the first quarter of 2010 homes might increase in value but as quarters two and three came to a close (immediately following the conclusion of the homebuyer incentive programs) it was clear that would not be the case. The fourth quarter managed to salvage some of the losses in the two previous quarters as you shall probably hear soon n the media.

If you are considering selling your home this year be sure and contact us for a valuation of your home. We are experts in selling peninsula properties and our record of selling every home we list for sale is unparalleled in our industry.

 Note: We throw out homes we know were re-listed or underwent huge price reductions only to sell for slightly higher than their greatly reduced price.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this newsletter is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario. 

Best Belmont Deal of the Week 1.11.11

Tuesday is our tour day and this home was the best deal we found in Belmont. It's located in a GREAT area of Belmont with a nice micro climate. It's hard to beat the west side for $749,000. This home shouldn't last a week.

 

   
 
View All Photos    
1514 FOLGER DR, Belmont 94002 (Belmont)
$749,950 Beds: 3 beds Baths: 2|0 baths		  
DOM: 4   MLS: 81100860 
Property Overview
1514 FOLGER DR
Belmont (Belmont) 94002
Detached Single Family (Class 1)
Beds, Baths: 3, 2|0
SqFt: 1,790
Lot: 9,600 sq ft
Yr Built / Age: 1946 / 65 years
Assoc Fee:  
List Price: $749,950
Sale Price:  
Sale Date:  
COE Date:  
Remarks
Cute, Country Style Home on large lot. Single-story home has 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths + permitted BONUS recreational/TV room in basement area. Cute kitchen w/newer appliances.Updated bathrooms. Enjoy expansive patio with built-in BBQ & nice green lawn area. Detached & refurbished 2 Car Garage has bonus area that can be finished off as office or workspace. Call for appointment…Owner Occupied.
Schools/Districts
Elem: Central Elementary/ Belmont-Redwood Shores Elementary
Middle: Ralston Intermediate
High: Carlmont High/ Sequoia Union High
Property Features
Familyroom
No Family Room

Informal Dining Area
Breakfast Bar

Formal Dining Area
Separate Dining Room

Other Rooms
Recreation Room

Bedroom Descriptions
1 Master Bedroom Suite

Shower And Tub
1 Shower over Tub

Shower
1 Stall Shower

Other Areas
Full Basement

 Amenities
220 Volts in Kitchen
220 Volts in Laundry Area
Cable TV Available
Gas Hookup in Kitchen
Gas Water Heater

Fireplace Location
Fireplace in Living Room

Floor Covering(S)
Hardwood

Energy Features
Insulated Hot Water Heater
Low-Flow Toilet(s)

 Listing Includes
1 Dishwasher
1 Refrigerator
Built-In Oven/Range Combo
Dryer
Washer

Garage/Parking
2 Car Garage

Lot Description
    - -

View
Neighborhood View

 Yards/Grounds
Barbecue Area
Dog Run/Kennel
Patio

Has Pool
No Pool

Pool Description
    - -

Pool Options
    - -

Style
Country English

Horse Property
    - -

Horse Property Description
    - -

 

 

 

Case-Shiller Reports Measureable Home Price decline in October 2010

I was awakened from my long winter nap by the predictable sensational reporting of the latest Case-Shiller home price indices.

The latest press release by Standard and Poor’s states:

New York, December 28, 2010 – Data through October 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for

Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show a deceleration

in the annual growth rates in 18 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites in October

compared to what was reported for September 2010.  The 10-City Composite was up only 0.2% and the

20-City Composite fell 0.8% from their levels in October 2009. Home prices decreased in all 20 MSAs

and both Composites in October from their September levels. In October, only the 10-City Composite

and four MSAs – Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC – showed year-over-year

gains. While the composite housing prices are still above their spring 2009 lows, six markets – Atlanta,

Charlotte, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices started to

Fall in 2006 and 2007, meaning that average home prices in those markets have fallen beyond the recent

lows seen in most other markets in the spring of 2009.

The index showed a decline in the Bay Area from October to September’s numbers but a year-over-year increase for the same period.

What does this mean? It means that compared to last year home values are up in the San Francisco MSA (metropolitan statistical area) which includes San Francisco down to Redwood City. It also means that the values dropped from September to October. How much? 1.9% to be exact. Not what I would call earth shattering  and I certainly wouldn’t describe it as one of our local TV stations did as “Bay Area Prices Plummet”.

Later in the evening a competing station had the headline “Bay Area Prices up”, referring to the year over year statistic.

Neither news headline tells the whole story.

The much ballyhooed double dip in fact did occur but it was much more pronounced in other parts of the country and more akin to a glitch than a dip—and likely it was caused by the cessation of government subsidies which helped to prop up home values in 2009.

 

SF MSA

Case-shiller October 2010

 

The information contained in this newsletter is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.