Best of Tour for May 6th, 2013 – Best Homes From Today’s Tour

Time permitting, we like to spotlight the best home from our weekly Broker tour day. One which we feel is exceptional in one way or another.

Sometimes it’s the amazing view, the fantastic kitchen or the stunning location or landscaping–and other times, it’s about the value.

Today’s Best of Tour in our opinion is the home at 31 Willow Glen Way in San Carlos courtesy REIGN Real Estate.

31 Willow Glen

It offers a great secluded west-side San Carlos location and the home has many opportunities for sweat equity. It’s ideal for somebody that wants to move in to a home today and add more value later my making this diamond in the rough a true gem.

If you can get this home anywhere near it’s listed price of $849,000 one should feel elated they got a great deal.

(Note: No open home time have been posted for this home as of yet).

31 WILLOW GLEN WAY, San Carlos 94070 Status: Active MLS #: 81315220
Class: Single Family Residential Orig Price: $849,000 List: 05/06/2013
Area: Beverly Terrace Etc. (351) List Price: $849,000 Original: 05/06/2013
County: SAN MATEO COUNTY
Complex:
Beds: 3 Baths: 2 (2/0)
Approx SqFt: 1,990 (Assessor) :
Approx Lot: 4,400 Sqft (Assessor) DOM: 1
Built/Age: 1933(Assessor)/80 Green doc: No
Parcel #: 049-133-180 Walk Score: 40
Zone: R100 Unit/Bldg: –/– Trnsf Tx:
Unincorp: No CityLimits: Yes Cur Rent:

Housing Price Increases – Is There Any End in Sight?

Looking at the home sales in Belmont during the first quarter, one can see from this spreadsheet that every seller who listed their home received over their asking price. They were only a few exceptions. One was a home that was a short sale which we took out of the mix since those list prices are arbitrary, one was an off-market sale. We discounted any home that had been listed since last year to reflect the more robust 2013 season.

[click on the image for larger print]

Belmont Q1 2013 Home Sales

The percent that sellers are receiving over their asking price is mind boggling. It all has to do with the short supply of homes and the large numbers of buyers trying to take advantage of the historically low interest rates.

Of course that could change. Interest rates could rise making homes more expensive, or with rising prices, more “Equity Sellers” will develop as homes which were under water can now be sold for a profit. More inventory of homes means more competition for sellers as buyers will have more homes to choose from.

Disclaimer:

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Where Did All the Inventory Go? Long Time Passing…

Where did all of the listing go? Where’s the inventory?

That’s a common question today as eager home buyers are wondering if they’ll ever get a house. As we said in an earlier post, it’s not that there aren’t enough homes coming on the market, it’s that they all sell, and so it appears there are no homes to buy.

We’re getting enough questions about the hot housing market that we thought it warranted an attempt to explain what the reasons are for what Mr. Shiller (of Case-Shiller) would likely refer to as “Irrational Exuberance” after a book he authored by the same name.

Before we show you the numbers, which in some cases are absolutely mind boggling, we’ll proffer our explanation.

Our economy and the housing sector are recovering from the longest and most devastating housing downturn since the great depression. Home values plummeted for five years in a row in the end making home ownership more affordable.

As seen in this graph, home affordability peaked in 2009, yet sales were still dismal. Even with reduced home prices and record low interest rates buyers were afraid to take the plunge into home ownership.

There were still several obstacles which buyers had to overcome. Confidence in the economy and confidence in job stability. Even though home affordability peaked in 2009 potential home buyers were worried about the economy and their jobs. To compound the reluctance to move forward there was the deep rooted psychological trauma in the wake of post bubble bursting which was enough to keep most skeptics on the sideline for a few more years.

We saw things begin to change in 2011 when we were being inundated with new hires in the tech sector moving from out of state and requesting our assistance in securing a one year rental. It was the first sign that 2012 housing might pick-up—and it did.

In 2012 the “Buy Now” light switch was flipped on and buyers came out in droves to bid on the few home available. Why did so many buyers elect to more forward all at once? Because they all enjoyed the same motivating elements—America was on sale, interest rates were at historic lows, and now with companies hiring again, buyers felt comfortable in their jobs.

So in the wake of the greatest housing downturn in U.S. history, it seems plausible that might be going through a rebound equally as dramatic.

How long can this last? More “Equity Sellers” are being created every day as home prices replenish the equity lost during the downturn. More homes for sale will help the current historically low inventory levels (San Mateo County has less than two months of inventory and Belmont less than one).  But don’t expect prices to drop anytime soon. Even higher interest rates have had little affect on the prices of Peninsula homes.

Now onto the numbers...This is our post about the first quarter Belmont home sales. Here you can see how low inventory levels have created overbids averaging 114% of the seller’s asking price.

The partial title is a tribute to the endless hours my father would play the Kingston Trio’s “Where Have All the Flowers Gone” which harkens to the days of the Vietnam War resistance. If you are old enough to remember that little ditty, I’m sure it’s stuck in your head by now too…

 

Disclaimer:

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Are Home Prices Rising Too Fast?

Are Home Prices Rising Too Fast? [re-blog]

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | MONDAY, APRIL 15, 2013Rising Home Prices

Some housing analysts are concerned that the sudden rise in home prices could make homes more unaffordable again if the price increases outpace income growth, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Average housing costs for home buyers who took out a mortgage were around 22.5 percent of average incomes, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. That is down from 38.5 percent in 2006, the peak of the housing bubble. The historical average is about 33 percent.

But with home prices rising in many markets and, in some, rising at a faster pace than income levels, will more people soon be priced out of the market?

Housing analysts say that, for now at least, lower mortgage rates are offsetting the higher prices of homes.

Borrowers have seen their purchasing power rise by around 33 percent over the past four years due to the low interest rates, The Wall Street Journal reports. For example, a borrower can make a $1,000 monthly mortgage payment and qualify for a $222,000 mortgage at today’s low interest rates, compared to 2008 when they’d likely qualify for $165,000 when mortgage rates were around 6.1 percent — nearly double what they are today.

Borrowers are able to withstand home-price increases because of the low rates, not because household incomes are growing, The Wall Street Journal reports. If mortgage rates tick back up to the 6 percent or 8 percent range, homes may look overpriced relative to incomes, according to housing analysts.

Source: “Why Rising Interest Rates Could Eventually Curb Price Gains,” The Wall Street Journal (April 10, 2013)

Read More

Existing Home Sales and Prices Continue to Rise
What’s Really Driving the Rise in Home Prices?

Belmont Home Prices & Sales for March 2013 – Can it Get Any Hotter?

Once again Belmont home sales were strong. Now that we are comparing a bull year in 2013  to 2012, another bull year, the increases seem a bit watered down since in both years thus far home sales have been strong.

Belmont Home Prices March 2013

SALES

At 22 home sales in Belmont this March, we tied last year’s impressive increase of 29% over 2011 with 22 sales once again.

DAYS ON MARKET

The time it took to sell a home in Belmont went from 38 days last March to only 29 this year—just one more affirmation of the incredibly hot market.

PERCENT RECEIVED

Sellers enjoyed another boost in the percent of their asking price they received. In March of 2011 sellers received 99.5% of asking which jumped to 101.6% in 2012 before being eclipsed by this year’s impressive 108.3%. Sellers that are worried about what they pay their agent should think less about negotiating a ½ % discount in commission and more about hiring the best agent with the best results. My parents called that “Penny wise and pound foolish”.

PRICE REDUCTIONS

Two sellers had to lower their initial asking price to entice a buyer as compared to last year when three sellers lowered their asking price. Once again, compared to 2011 when almost 1/3rd of seller reduced their asking price, this is another high water mark.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median home price in Belmont last March was $899,000 and for the second month in a row it has eclipsed the $1 million dollar mark coming in at $1,044,000 for March—though the median size home also went up from 1,763 square feet in 2012 to 1,830 in 2013. So while the size of homes selling this year are 3.8% larger, they are selling for 16% more—suggesting an overall increase of around 12% year over year. Sounds about right for what we are seeing.

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

This statistic is used represent the “Month’s of Inventory” in a given period. Essentially the time it would take to sell the entire existing inventory of homes at the current rate of monthly sales. In Belmont, that number has been dwindling each month until it reached .6 (less 18 days of inventory). That number alone might not have much meaning unless you understand that the housing inventory as whole in the US stands at 18 months—not 18 days.

Is it because there are more sales, or a declining inventory due to fewer new listings—or both?

With buyers and agents complaining about the lack of inventory, and with the lack of inventory playing a large role in the multiple offers we’re seeing, we decided we’d add a new graph to our statistics page that tracks the number of new listings and sales each month in select cities.

 

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Drew & Christine Morgan did not necessarily participate in these sales.

DRE License Numbers 01124318 & 01174047

Drew & Christine Morgan, REALTORS | Notary Public

 

Belmont’s Proposed Sewer Lateral Requirement Might Just Stink

Crocodile-in-the-sewer-urban-legends-231554_487_491

We initiated this post on the Belmont Patch and wanted to make sure the residents of Belmont know what their City Council is working on as the newest proposal in keeping Belmont’s residence safe.

I tend to stay away from expressing our opinions about the machinations of Belmont’s City Council but I thought their recent proposal which burdens every home seller with a sewer lateral inspection and repair requirement needs some public scrutiny.  

What is a sewer lateral?

It’s the underground pipe that runs from your home to the public sewer system.

What’s the issue?

In some cases, the sewer lateral can leak or even break causing sewage to seep into the ground—similar as to a leach field used in septic systems but not as sanitary. It also has the unwanted effect of possibly allowing ground water (from rain for example) to enter the sewer system which can overburden the system.

What’s the Fix?

First, you have to learn if you have a faulty sewer lateral. There is a relatively inexpensive smoke test which Belmont has been employing to detect faulty sewer laterals. The more expensive way to discover this is through a field test with a camera which is snaked through your sewer line to detect visible deficiencies.

How much does it cost if I need to repair my sewer lateral?

That depends. An short run and easy fix from your home to the street might cost under a thousand dollars but could also reach ten times that amount if there are difficulties in reaching the sewer lateral or, as in the case of many Belmont homes, the sewer lateral has a very extensive run across multiple properties before it reaches the main city sewer line.

What the City of Belmont is considering:

The Belmont City Council has been deliberating whether or not to force each homeowner to perform a test and if necessary repair the sewer lateral before they can sell their home. That proposal is called a “point of sale” or POS proposal.

What’s the problem with their proposal?

There are several issues with this approach which could cause a homeowner a problem should they need to sell their home and either not have the funds to repair the sewer lateral, or not have the time before the close of escrow. Amendments to this proposal include ways a homeowner could negotiate with a buyer to inherit the burden but so far the proposed workarounds appear to be at odds with lending and escrow institutional requirements.

What’s the answer?

The City of Belmont is currently testing sewer laterals utilizing a smoke test which offers the added benefit of detecting downspouts that may be discharging roof runoff into the sewer system rather than the storm drains. Should they find a leak they could then require the homeowner to repair their sewer lateral and have the opportunity to secure financing if needed.

The POS proposal seeks to limit the sewer lateral test to a relatively small subset of homes—only those which sell in a given year, which in 2012 was only 236—while the easily performed smoke test could potentially reach far more homes.

One wonders if the city is truly interested in fixing the sewer lateral problem or pushing it off onto those who will have little voice in the next election—those selling their home and moving away.

UPDATE–I attended the meeting with the Belmont staff and council on Thursday, the 14th to hear their newest idea of the Point of Sale requirement for sewer laterals. Be clear, the City Council has directed the staff to discuss how to best implement the POS, not whether or not the POS is the best way to deal with the issue.

Clearly there is a need to repair broken sewer lateral lines in our city. Having sewage seep into the surrounding ground is not ideal, but the larger problem appears to be the amount of water which enters broken sewer laterals during and after heavy rains. This water then ends up taxing an already overburdened treatment system and anyone who lives in Belmont knows the cost of maintaining our sewer system keeps getting passed along in the form of rate increases on our property tax bills.

But is it leaking water into our sewer laterals which is the major culprit or is it the city’s very own main lines? The smoke tests which the city has been performing clearly revealed one of the greatest issues are folks who have tied their downspouts into the sewer system rather than divert the water to run down the curb and into the storm drain. So again we question, are we moving forward armed with all of the information we need or just moving forward to give the impression we’re making progress?

The rainy season is almost over and we’d suggest the council, which appears ahead of their skis right now, take a step back and get more information and input before storming ahead. Gathering more information from lending institutions, title companies and plumbing contractors who specialize in sewer lateral replacement might prove to be a good start. Having the city deliver the results of their smoke testing to the public for scrutiny might also show some good faith that these decisions are based on solid data; then set a date for action prior to next years’ rainy season.

The question of course today is why a POS vs. requiring each property owner to test and fix their sewer laterals? If the City Council is truly concerned about fixing the issue, a POS requirement severs to only uncover a small percentage of the defective sever lateral lines—commensurate with home many homes sell each year. Since it’s an election year, this seems a politically palatable way to deliver bad news—only those moving would be affected by the cost (estimated to average $7,500 per household). But is it the best answer to the problem? Probably not.

If the council is truly concerned with the health and safety of its citizens it might continue down the path of requiring each and every homeowner to remedy this situation independent on whether or not they are moving. I’m struggling with this but the only reason I can see for not requiring every homeowner to repair their lateral is it would be politically unfavorable.

If the City Council has its way a POS would be eminent. The staff has been directed to develop a step-by-step plan for administrating this new burden. The proposal, if I can paraphrase it and as it stands now, is before a home could be transferred, it would need to have a certification the sewer lateral is intact. That encumbers the homeowner to order and pay for a sewer lateral camera inspection costing about $150-$200 dollars depending upon ease of access. The results of the test and camera footage shall be delivered to the public works department for analysis—promised not to take more than a day or two. If your sewer lateral passes, you get to pass “GO”. If not, you will be required to fix it and provide a certification to the city prior to the close of escrow. Of course the city will have its hand out for encroachment permits, building permits and so forth and they’ve offered no proposed relief on these fees in order for homeowners to comply. Or, the third option presented on Thursday, was that the buyer of the property could sign a pledge to repair the sewer later at their expense with 180 days of closing—and deliver a deposit as security of performance—an amount which has yet to be determined.

Of course this will raise all sorts of red flags for lenders, who if they get wind this requirement exists, will force the repair of the sewer lateral prior to the close of escrow as part of a lending requirement. So while we applaud the city staff for attempting a workaround, their third prong option still has some kinks in it. Namely that once the seller and buyer negotiate who will pay for this repair those negotiations will become part of the contract—the very contract the lender will scrutinize and thus require a sewer lateral certification before they will lend on the property.

As REALTORS, we’re used to handling city issues in the form of disclosure such as the new smoking ordinance, school boundary issue, or even dog and alarm licensing requirements so this newest burden which the city apparently feels we are fighting just for the sake of having to do less work, is really a non sequester for us. What this will burden is the home sale transaction—the seller and the buyer—to find a way to appease the city’s new requirement without unwittingly defrauding the lender at the same time.

The views expressed here are my own–Drew Morgan and not necesarily the views of the National Association of REALTORS, The California Association of REALTOS, The San Mateo Association of Realtors or even my wife.