Butter or Bacon–How Do You Know What’s Good For You?

Let’s point fingers. It’s the American way—when things go awry, we want to know who’s to Uncle_sam blame. There’s got to be somebody out there whose hands are dirty? And if we can’t find them we’ll pick an easy target.

So who’s is to blame for the mortgage fiasco? Might there be enough blame to go around for everyone?

The banks and lenders who made the loans certainly had to know the risks involved—they designed the loans in the first place. They are the ones that lowered the qualifying standards so that a buyer could get approved for a loan at a minimum negatively amortized payment option.  One might even argue this is what the banks wanted. Countrywide, the nation’s largest lender may have specifically designed these loans to bring themselves to the brink of bankruptcy. Why? We’ll leave that one to the conspiracy theorists.

Cf_graph_2

The brokers who made the loans must have also been aware of the pros and cons; how else could they sell the products? Why didn’t they just tell people that these were risky loans, I’m sure no one would have opted in had they been aware of a potential down side…

Real estate agents must bear some culpability too. After all, they sold these people homes they knew they could never afford for the short-sided interest of getting a commission check. Let’s just hope they all go down with the sinking ship—that’ll teach them. Many of these buyers could never have dreamed of owning a home and real estate agents should have told them to forget about homeownership and stay renters.

And all will be well in American if we can just find someone to blame.

The fact is other than some unscrupulous lenders, bankers, mortgage brokers and agents who participated in these loan schemes without disclosing the downside, one really cannot blame the average industry professional for doing their job—selling a product—anymore than one could blame your local supermarket for selling tobacco, alcohol, butter and bacon. Those products might not be the best for you but they’re available— it’s up to the buyer to be aware of the health issues and indulge in moderation.

If you think the buyer suing her agent in California over the value of her home is a case to watch, wait until homeowners start suing the banks for offering them loans the banks should have known they could not afford.

The reality is this is probably the best argument against privatizing Social Security. Most people do not possess the business acumen to handle their own finances. I can just imagine the uproar over that bailout now…

Median Price Methodology Examined

Median Price Methodology:

The methodology of reporting median home prices varies depending on the source. The MLS uses the aggregate method of calculating the median based on the preceding twelve month sales. We discuss why in a changing market this system is flawed at best.

Standard & Poor’s methodology is perhaps the most accurate, but it relies heavily on past sales and is therefore better suited for looking at historical trends than illuminating current market conditions. Bel_median_12

We employ another approach which is to examine the most recent month’s sales, and adjust for larger or smaller homes selling to help mitigate wild fluctuations in median price results.

For example, the MLS reported Belmont’s median value for 2007 to be $945,000; yet looking at the median price reported at the end of December it stood at $1,035,000; a significant difference and an overall upward trend from the previous three years.

Median Bay Area Home Price Near Worthless

What You Hear About Median Home Values May Be Completely Wrong

The Multiple Listing Service for the Bay Area peninsula has launched the December sales stats and there is some compelling evidence that Bay Area homes values dropped slightly over 2006.

The median home price is the midpoint at which half of the homes sold for more, and half sold for less. Of course if smaller or larger homes are selling then these numbers are easily skewed—especially with a small market sample.

SMC 2007San Mateo County posted a reduction in the median home price to $885,000–a $40,000 (4.3%) decline over $925,000 in 2006.

This statistic could be wildly inaccurate though. Simply put, there’s no easy way to determine if the size homes which sold in a given year were larger or smaller than a previous year’s. Intuitively, given a large sample–totaling all sales for San Mateo County for example, one would expect the median size home to remain relatively constant and thus portray an accurate picture of the median home values. But unique market forces such as the ones we are currently experiencing are just the sort of thing that could skew those numbers. If for example, more first-time buyers purchased homes, the median size home included in the sales calculations would undoubtedly be smaller and thus skew the median price lower.

The Multiple Listing Service (or MLS system) which essentially retains all agent related transactions has its own inherent flaws. They derive the median home value by taking the median price for every home sold in a given year. If the housing market has a dramatic shift during the course of the year, it’s entirely possible that the median home price reported has nothing to do with the home values at the end of the year on December 31st.  In other words, it matters not whether home values climb for the first quarter of 2007, if in December they’ve dropped dramatically. The MLS median price is more a measurement of the average median value rather than the true median price at the end of the year.

Last year was a prime example of why reporting the median home price in this fashion is erroneous at best. In Belmont for example, there were 94 sales in the first six months of 2006 and 92 in 2007–virtually unchanged. However, the next six months after the July mortgage issues came to light, there were only 127 sales in 2007 compared to 167 in 2006. It’s a strong indication that the market changed in the second part of the year and why measuring the median values at the end of the year, rather than reporting the aggregate is a methodology more suited to a changing market.

In a small market sample such as the town we live in, Belmont, Ca, it’s even more imperative that one adjust for the median size of homes which sold. We incorporate this onto our calculations and low and behold an entirely different picture emerges.

Belmont Real Estate-December Sales 2007

December 2007 Belmont Market Report:

All_bel_dec_sales_2

↑Belmont ended the year with 17 sales in December as compared to 14 in 2006 and off the high of 25 in 2005.

That’s a glimpse the local market may be settling down.

↑Of those 17 sales, eight sold over the seller’s asking price, two sold at asking and seven homes sold under asking. We indicate this to be positive since it underscores the market is still healthy in certain segments.

The average time it took to sell a home was 39 days. Of the homes which sold over asking they took only 18 days to sell and on average sold for 3.61% over what the seller was asking. Seller’s which received their asking price took on average 40 days to sell their home and homes which sold under the asking price averaged 56 days on the market and sold for 5.26% less than their original asking price. Clearly, pricing a home correctly remains a crucial factor in getting the most for a home.

New_listings_in_belmont_2005_to_200↓Inventory remains higher than usual for this time of year.

One of the factors which helped keep inventory levels in check was the paltry number of new listings to choose from in the spring and summer.

Seller’s Can’t Afford to Overprice Their Home

Days on Market and Price Received Correlation

Though the nation’s mortgage industry is tumultuous at best, the peninsula market in the Bay Area is faring much better.

Last month 17 homes sold as compared to 14 in 2006 and off the high of 25 in 2005.

Of those 17 sales eight sold over the seller’s asking price, two sold at asking and seven homes sold under asking. Dom_received                                                                                    

The average time it took to sell a home was 39 days. Of the homes which sold over asking however, they took only 18 days to sell and on average sold for 3.61% over what the seller was asking. Seller’s which received their asking price took on average 40 days to sell, and homes which sold under the asking price averaged 56 days on the market and sold for 5.26% less than their original asking price.

Clearly, pricing a home correctly remains a crucial factor in getting the most for a home. These numbers illustrates a swing of almost 9% in what a seller received between a home priced to sell quickly and one which lingered on the market.

New Year’s Day. Why January 1st?

Why do we celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1st? For the same reason the sun never came up in Brittan for 12 days back in 1784—calendars.Champagne_2

On September 2, 1752 the good people of England went to bed and when they awoke it was 12 days later. The sun never came up during those days—no newspapers were printed, no one died and no one was born. What happened to freeze time for 12 days? It was the British Calendar Act of 1751, which declared the day after Wednesday the 2nd of September to be Thursday the 14th.

The reason for the correction was that Brittan continued to use the Julian calendar well after many countries had switched to the Georgian Calendar we us today. Hence the official British calendar differed from most of continental Europe by 11 days. That meant that September 2nd in England was September 13th In France.

The Julian Calendar, named after Julius Caesar who requested its creation in 45 B.C.E, consisted of 11 months of 30 or 31 days, and a 28 day February—to include an intercalary day every fourth year. This calendar only varied from a solar year by about 11.5 minutes each year. By the sixteenth century though this variation had the effect of putting the Julian calendar behind the true solar calendar by 10 days. Pope Gregory VIII advanced the calendar 10 days in 1582 and adopted the Georgian Calendar. Several other key changes were made including the first of the year would begin on January 1st, not March 25th.

But protestant countries such as England were reluctant to make these changes resulting in a difference between British colony calendars and that of some European countries of 11 days by 1752.

There were other hold-outs. Germany and the Netherlands did not agree to adopt the Gregorian calendar until 1698. Russia waited until after the revolution of 1918, and Greece did not weigh in until 1923.

Grand Jury Gives Carlmont High School a Lesson in Enrollment

The Civil Grand Jury directed Carlmont High Scholl to clarify its own open-enrollment program and limit the number of students who can transfer, increase capacity, or change school boundaries. School_stairs

Carlmont is over its official capacity of 2,100 students. Administrators say the district’s use of open enrollment – which allows students to choose a school outside the one designated by attendance boundaries – along with the popularity of Carlmont has caused the shift.

Superintendent Pat Gemma said for starters, the district plans to allow only about 80 open enrollment transfers to Carlmont for the freshman class that will start next fall, compared to about 220 transfers that were let in this fall.

Students with siblings at the school will get the highest priority, followed by those who chose Carlmont after making a documented effort to educate themselves on the options. ""There’s no question in my mind nor the mind of the principal at Carlmont that 2,300 students at Carlmont is too many," Gemma said.

With that in mind is seem unlikely that Carlmont will be choosing the option of increasing capacity, and will likely be forced to move school boundaries. Currently, any eligible Belmont resident can go to Carlmont High while only certain parts of San Carlos may attend providing they are within the designated school boundaries. The third option has been to apply for an intra-district transfer to Carlmont.

This dilemma could have an impact on housing values as buyers are apparently more inclined to pay extra to live within the Calrmont School boundaries. The folks who bought in San Carlos thinking they were well within the Carlmont High School boundaries may find out that everything has changed—including what someone will pay to live there.

Alternative Real Estate Models



Drew & Christine Morgan,MorganHomes.com


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December 10th–Property Tax Deadline

Today, December 10th is the last day to pay your property taxes in California. Many people wait until the December 10th deadline to pay their property taxes though they are due November 10th, becasue there’s no penalty until after the December deadline.

Taxes

The fiscal year for California property taxes runs from July 1st through June 30th of each year, which is why your property taxes cover those specific dates. There are two payment vouchers, one for the first installment and another for installment numbers two. Installment number one is collected in arrears in November as it covers the time period from July 1st through the end of the year. This payment is due November 10th and delinquent December 10th of each year.

The second installment is due on February 10th but the tax collector gives you and additional 30 days to make this payment as it is not delinquent until April 10th.

For those trying to get all the airline miles possible, there’s an easy on-line payment option but be aware that a 2.5% surcharge will be applied for this convenience.

Lies,Damned Lies, and then there are Statistics…

The article titled "California’s October home sales slide 40%" reported by Inman News today evokes thoughts of Mark Twain’s famous saying there are "Lies, damned lies, and statistics".

Though the number of homes which sold is easily tracked, calculating the true median home price is a little more elusive. The size of homes which sell in a particular period can greatly influence this statistic. The median price has been used quite often as a benchmark for home values since all things being equal, roughly the same size homes sell each month. However, current lending conditions affecting first-time home buyers have skewed these numbers and in fact a disproportionate number of larger homes are selling; and since larger homes sell for more, this has created the appearance of an increase in the median sale price in certain areas.

For example, one of the cities sited in the article as one of the 10 cities and communities with the greatest median-home-price increases in October 2007 compared to October 2006 was Redwood City at 20.6 percent. But if one examines just the single family homes which sold in those two periods, it reveals that in October 2006 the median home price was $810,000 and a year later $1,100,500-a whopping $290,000 more! Pretty exciting news for sellers until you look further at the data and realize that the median size home sold in these two periods also grew; from 1330 sq. ft. to 1760 sq. ft. Calculating the price per square foot which homes sold for in October 2007 ($600.00) and applying that to the difference in the size of homes sold (400 Sq. Ft.) for these periods reveals that $240,000 of the $290,000 increase was simply due to larger homes selling-still an increase, but hardly worthy of making the news. And of course if this scenario is played out across California as a whole, one wonders if the 9.9% median home price dip isn’t actually much steeper than reported?

*Data retrieved from the REIL MLS system for San Mateo County.