Let’s start with what prompted this investigation in the first place.
We were comparing Belmont home sales from July 2026 with July 2025 when several numbers caught our attention. Some seemed contradictory. The median sale price was down sharply, yet other measures of the market didn’t seem to support the idea that Belmont home values had fallen nearly as much.
So we decided to dig deeper.
Rather than looking only at year-over-year statistics, we went back through years of Belmont sales data to see how much normal seasonality might be influencing what we’re seeing today. Having experienced these seasonal swings firsthand over the years, we had a pretty good idea they existed. The historical numbers helped us see just how consistent some of those patterns actually are.
We also wanted a picture of a normal Belmont market, so we deliberately excluded periods when extraordinary events overwhelmed normal buying and selling behavior, including the Great Recession and the COVID pandemic. We also treated election-cycle periods with caution, particularly October and November, when uncertainty surrounding major elections can temporarily influence buyer and seller behavior.
What started as a simple July year-over-year comparison ultimately led us somewhere more interesting: Belmont appears to have a remarkably recognizable annual real estate cycle—and understanding that cycle can completely change how you interpret the latest numbers.
BELMONT: JULY 2026 vs. JULY 2025
| Market Indicator | July 2025 | July 2026 | YOY Change |
| Median Sale Price | $2,480,000 | $2,200,000 | −11.3% |
| Average Sale Price | $2,574,846 | $2,335,615 | −9.3% |
| Price per Sq. Ft. | $1,238 | $1,281 | +3.5% |
| Average Home Size Sold | 2,025 sf | 1,874 sf | −7.5% |
| Closed Sales | 13 | 13 | 0% |
| Current Inventory | 11 | 19 | +72.7% |
| Months of Inventory | 0.7 | 1.0 | +42.9% |
| Average CDOM | 19 days | 33 days | +73.7% |
| Sale Price vs. List Price | 104% | 104% | No change |
THE TAKEAWAY:
The median sale price fell 11.3%, but the homes sold were also 7.5% smaller, while price per square foot actually increased 3.5%. Meanwhile, buyers continued paying an average of 104% of asking price.
That makes the −11.3% median-price change a poor proxy for how much an individual Belmont home actually gained or lost in value.
When Is the Belmont Real Estate Market Really the Hottest?
People often talk about the real estate market as though it moves in a straight line.
Prices are up. Prices are down. Inventory is rising. Homes are selling faster.
But in Belmont, the market has a rhythm of its own.
And if you don’t understand that rhythm, it’s very easy to misread what the numbers are actually telling you.
After looking at many years of Belmont sales data — while deliberately setting aside unusual periods such as the Great Recession and the COVID-era market — a surprisingly consistent seasonal pattern emerges.
Belmont Has a Selling Season
The Belmont market typically begins waking up in February and March.
More homes come on the market, but buyer activity also accelerates. Competition builds quickly, and by April and May, Belmont is usually experiencing its most competitive market of the year.
That’s when we tend to see:
- Homes selling faster
- More multiple-offer situations
- Higher percentages over asking price
- Stronger buyer urgency
In some particularly strong years, that momentum carries into June.
But then something happens.
Summer Arrives — and the Market Takes Its Foot Off the Gas
By June and July, the market typically begins to cool.
That doesn’t necessarily mean home values are falling.
It means buyer competition is easing.
More inventory has accumulated. Some of the most motivated buyers have already purchased. Families have shifted their attention to summer plans. And buyers who remain in the market often become a little more selective.
That pattern is showing up again in 2026.
Belmont homes sold for an average of approximately 112% of asking price in March.
By July, that had fallen to about 104%.
At first glance, that might look like a weakening market.
But when we compare that movement with Belmont’s historical behavior, it looks much more familiar.
Spring is normally Belmont’s pressure cooker.
Summer is normally when some of that pressure comes out.
That’s Why One Month Can Be Misleading
This is especially important when looking at median home prices.
Belmont is a relatively small market, and there simply aren’t hundreds of homes selling every month.
That means a handful of larger or smaller homes can dramatically change the median price without telling us very much about what happened to the value of an individual home.
For example, Belmont’s July median sale price can fall substantially from the prior year simply because the homes that happened to sell were smaller.
At the same time, buyers may still be paying strongly relative to asking prices.
Both things can be true.
And that’s exactly why we don’t like relying on any single statistic.
The Better Question Isn’t “Are Prices Up or Down?”
The better question is:
Is the market behaving differently than Belmont normally behaves at this time of year?
That is a much more useful way to look at real estate.
If bidding activity falls between March and July, but it does that almost every year, that isn’t necessarily evidence of a declining market.
It’s seasonality.
If inventory rises during the spring and summer, but that’s what typically happens, that isn’t automatically a warning sign either.
The important thing is whether those movements are outside the normal range.
What About Fall?
Belmont sometimes gets a second burst of activity after Labor Day.
Buyers return from summer trips, sellers who waited through the summer come to market, and there can be a short window of renewed activity before the holidays.
But the fall market is less predictable than spring.
And election years can make October and November especially difficult to interpret. In our experience, uncertainty surrounding presidential and congressional elections can cause some buyers and sellers to hesitate temporarily, creating swings that may have little to do with the underlying value of Belmont real estate.
That’s one more reason not to overreact to a single month’s numbers.
So What Are We Seeing in Belmont Right Now?
The best description is not that Belmont suddenly turned weak.
It is that the extraordinary spring market has cooled into a more typical summer market.
Competition has eased.
Buyers have a little more breathing room.
Homes are taking somewhat longer to sell.
But none of those things, by themselves, tell us that Belmont home values have materially declined.
They tell us that the market has moved from one part of its normal annual cycle into another.
And that distinction matters.
Because understanding Belmont real estate isn’t just about knowing the latest number.
It’s about knowing what that number means in Belmont.
We hope you found his helpful in your planing for a move, and thaks for reading along!
Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS® and longtime Mid-Peninsula real estate professionals based in Belmont, California, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They help buyers and sellers navigate important real estate decisions with experienced guidance, thoughtful strategy, and highly personalized service. Their achievements include RE/MAX’s prestigious Diamond Club Award, recognition among the Top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide, and ranking among the Top 3 in Northern California.
To speak directly with Drew or Christine, call (650) 508-1441 or emailinfo@morganhomes.com.
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This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice; it cannot replace advice tailored to your situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional familiar with your scenario.
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