The July numbers are in for San Mateo County, and on the surface they tell a pretty dramatic story.
The median sales price increased from $1,920,000 in July 2025 to $2,123,000 in July 2026 — an increase of 10.6%.
Does that mean San Mateo County homes appreciated 10.6% over the past year?
Not necessarily.
That’s because median sales price measures the homes that happened to sell during a particular period. It doesn’t measure the change in value of the same homes from one year to the next.
And this year, there’s an important difference.
Bigger Homes Sold This July
The average home sold in July 2025 was approximately 2,100 square feet. This July, the average was 2,226 square feet — about 6% larger.
Larger homes generally sell for more money, so some of the 10.6% increase in median price can be attributed to the fact that larger homes were sold this year.
If we make a simple adjustment for that difference in size, it suggests appreciation closer to 4–5%. That’s not intended to be a precise measurement of appreciation, but it illustrates why a 10.6% increase in the median doesn’t necessarily mean your home’s value increased by 10.6%.
Other housing indices tell a different story as well. The FHFA index for the broader San Francisco–San Mateo–Redwood City Metropolitan Division was essentially flat year over year during the second quarter.
That index includes San Francisco as well as San Mateo County, so it isn’t a direct measurement of our county. But it reinforces an important point: how you measure the market matters.
What We Do Know: Buyers Are Competing
Perhaps the most interesting part of July’s numbers isn’t the median price at all.
It’s what buyers are doing.
In July 2025, San Mateo County homes sold for an average of 102% of their asking price.
In July 2026, that increased to 106% of asking.
That’s a significant change.
At the same time, the number of homes available for sale fell from 555 to 411 — a decline of nearly 26%.
Yet closed sales didn’t decline. In fact, they increased slightly, from 362 to 366 homes.
Months of available inventory also dropped from 1.5 months to just 1.0 month.
Put those numbers together, and the picture becomes much clearer:
There are substantially fewer homes available, roughly the same number are selling, and buyers are paying considerably more over asking to get them.
That strongly suggests increased competition among buyers for the homes that are available.
Interestingly, average days on market remained unchanged at 25 days. So homes aren’t necessarily selling faster than they were last year. The competition is showing up primarily in price and bidding, rather than simply how quickly homes sell.
July 2025 vs. July 2026
| July 2025 | July 2026 | Change | |
| New Listings | 368 | 342 | -7.1% |
| Current Inventory | 555 | 411 | -25.9% |
| Closed Sales | 362 | 366 | +1.1% |
| Average Days on Market | 25 | 25 | No change |
| Median Sales Price | $1,920,000 | $2,123,000 | +10.6% |
| Average Sales Price | $2,516,239 | $3,048,107 | +21.1% |
| Average Home Size | 2,100 sq. ft. | 2,226 sq. ft. | +6.0% |
| Price per Sq. Ft. | $1,151 | $1,241 | +7.8% |
| Average % of Asking | 102% | 106% | +4 points |
| Months of Inventory | 1.5 | 1.0 | -33.3% |
So, How Much Have Home Values Actually Increased?
There is a real answer to that question. The difficulty is measuring it accurately.
Countywide statistics compare thousands of different properties. And even within San Mateo County, appreciation isn’t uniform.
Belmont doesn’t necessarily move at the same rate as San Carlos, San Mateo or Redwood City. Within each city, one neighborhood can outperform another. And within a neighborhood, location, views, condition, lot, floor plan and many other factors can make a substantial difference.
That’s why we wouldn’t look at a 10.6% increase in the countywide median and tell a homeowner, “Your home went up 10.6%.”
It may have appreciated more. It may have appreciated less.
Determining that requires looking much closer to home.
The Bigger Picture
What we can say with considerably more confidence is that San Mateo County’s housing market remains remarkably competitive.
Compared with July of last year:
- Available inventory is down nearly 26%
- Closed sales are essentially unchanged
- Supply has fallen to just one month
- Buyers are paying an average of 106% of asking
- The median price of homes sold is up 10.6%
The precise rate of appreciation may be difficult to isolate from countywide statistics, but the behavior of the market is much easier to see.
There are fewer homes to choose from, buyers are competing more aggressively for them, and desirable homes continue to command strong prices.
For sellers, that can create significant opportunity.
For buyers, it makes understanding value — and knowing when to compete and when not to — more important than ever.
And for homeowners wondering what all these numbers mean for the value of their own home, the answer isn’t found in a countywide headline.
It’s found much closer to home.
THANK FOR READING ALONG!
Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS® and longtime Mid-Peninsula real estate professionals based in Belmont, California, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They help buyers and sellers navigate important real estate decisions with experienced guidance, thoughtful strategy, and highly personalized service. Their achievements include RE/MAX’s prestigious Diamond Club Award, recognition among the Top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide, and ranking among the Top 3 in Northern California.
To speak directly with Drew or Christine, call (650) 508-1441 or emailinfo@morganhomes.com.
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This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice; it cannot replace advice tailored to your situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional familiar with your scenario.
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