Bay Area home value increases are finally seeing signs of cooling off, as reported today by Case-Shiller and FRED’s Economic Data Report.

The Numbers

The Case-Shiller data represents the San Francisco MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) and consists of the counties of San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Contra Costa and Alameda.

The data has a three-month reporting lag, so today’s report is for the period ending September of 2021. It clearly shows a leveling off from historic upward spikes in home prices that were spurred on during the pandemic, as reported in our recent blog: “As a direct result of the pandemic, many apartment renters, and condominium owners find themselves challenged to work from home—and in many cases home school children. Since public gatherings are off the table—they want a yard as well as no common areas such as elevators. This creates a glut of condominiums on the market and strong demand for single family homes.”.

Last year in Q3, Bay Area home values rose 2.3% in the third quarter alone. For the same period in 2021, that number dropped to .05%, signaling a possible end to the pandemic fueled spike in home values.

What’s in store for Bay Area housing demand and values?

Buyers will certainly be keeping a close eye on the housing market and watching for prices leveling off. As we often observe, when buyers sense even a slight shift in the housing market, they tend to become more conservative and take a wait and see approach to how the market will fare.

If this pace stays on track, it will mean fewer bidding wars, a flattening of the price curve, some homes languishing on the market longer, and declining overbids that are on a pace closer to reality.

The Takeaway

The first quarter of 2022 will be an illuminating period for what lies ahead in 2022 for home values and inventory.

If you are a seller and trying to time the price pinnacle during this flurry of overbidding, we may have passed that point.

If you are a buyer who is frustrated by the market, watch closely for opportunities that may present themselves in our evolving market.

Whichever side of the market you’re on—buying or selling, be clear, values do not appear to be dropping, only escalating at a much slower pace.

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 25 years of experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. As Diamond recipients, Drew and Christine ranked in the top 50 RE/MAX agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California.  They can be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at

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The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax, insurance or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

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