Just Listed–OPEN SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26th 2008 1:30-4:30 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
 |
Belmont–Week in Review
The big news for the past few weeks is not what’s going on in Belmont but rather the world economies. We’ll leave that analysis to economists and instead show you how the credit crisis is affecting Belmont home buyers and sellers.
In fact the greatest factor affecting home sales is probably not the credit crunch at all, but consumer confidence. We’ve been through enough recessions to note that when consumer confidence is down so are home sales—understandably. But as Warren Buffet said yesterday, he buys when others are fearful and he’s fearful when others are greedy. If one were to apply that philosophy to the real estate market they’d be in great shape right now.
This graph is for the month of September over four years.
The news for Belmont’s housing market is not so grim. There are 58 single family homes for sale, once again up from last week but in perspective, right in –line with historical trends for this time of year.
The number of new listings (3) for sale is down which is good because the number of sales (2) are down too. This ratio is an important factor in gauging the housing market’s health. Currently the month’s supply of homes for sale in Belmont stands at 6.1—double that of just last month.
NEW LISTINGS
Pocket Listing:
What’s a pocket listing? It’s a home that an agent has listed but it’s not on the open market yet.
We have just such a listing which is scheduled to come on the market in time for this Tuesday’s agent tour.
2824 Hallmark Drive in Belmont—4 Bed 3 Baths 2,430 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,298,000. Many updates–just needs some maintenance. Shows great and has a hard-to-find level rear yard with pastoral canyon views—backs up top 300+ acres of open space and Water Dog Lake.
OPEN SUNDAY OCTOBER 26th 1:30-4:40
Drew & Christine Morgan—Call us for details or a private showing (650) 508-1441.
2116 Pullman 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,810 Sq. Ft. home for $1,069,000. This remodeled home should sell fast. There’s no open house listed for it but watch in Sunday’s Open House guide just in case. Listed By Charles Rauch, CR Properties
2030 Arbor-3 Bed 2 Bath 1,780 Sq. Ft. home listed for $879,000. Too new to review but it looks well priced. Check it out on Sunday’s open houses
|
Sun |
10/19 |
1:00-4:00 |
|
Sun |
10/26 |
1:00-4:00 |
Listed By Mary Duvall, Coldwell Banker-San Carlos
1218 North Road 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,270 Sq. Ft. home for $900,000.
Well, it’s not entirely a new listings but it was listed so long ago that we’ll qualify it as new. Originally listed back in August of 2007 for a whopping $1,250,000, it lasted until January 2008 when it was pulled from the market at $1,050,000. Nice house but a real cliff clinger home and no yard.
|
Sun |
10/19 |
2:00-4:00 |
|
Sun |
10/26 |
2:00-4:00 |
Listed By Michael Robles, Coldwell Banker-Burlingame
SALES
↑2404 Palmer 3 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,120 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,085,800 SOLD for $1,100,000 in 4 days. One of our Belmont’s Best Deal picks of the week when it was listed.
↓2606 Carlmont Drive-4 Bed 2.5 bath 2,268 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,068,000 SOLD for $1,050,000 in 7 days.
Belmont–Coming Soon!
|
COMING SOON TO BELMONT |
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
October’s Hunter’s Moon
Today marks the occasion of the “Hunter’s Moon. A full moon which occurs each October after September’s Harvest Moon.
This can be found on NASA’s web site. According to folklore, October’s full moon is called the “Hunter’s Moon” or sometimes the “Blood Moon.” It gets its name from hunters who tracked and killed their prey by autumn moonlight, stockpiling food for the winter ahead. You can picture them: silent figures padding through the forest, the moon overhead, pale as a corpse, its cold light betraying the creatures of the wood.
So how many moons do we really have? Twelve to be exact:
- January – Wolf Moon
- February – Snow Moon
- March – Worm Moon
- April – Pink Moon
- May – Flower Moon
- June – Strawberry Moon
- July – Buck Moon
- August – Sturgeon Moon
- September – Harvest Moon
- October – Hunter’s Moon
- November – Beaver Moon
- December – Cold Moon
Ever wonder why the moon appears so large at the horizon and so small up in the sky? This phenomenon referred to the “Moon Illusion” is best explained by scientists but it has everything to do with your brain’s perception of relative size as it compares the moon to objects on the horizon. Try taking a picture of the same moon and you’ll be sorely disappointed that your camera doesn’t see things quite the way you do.
Enjoy the show this week and as the moon rises near sunset and appears to fill the sky.
Belmont Housing Activity–Week Ending October 4th 2008
With all of the attention on November’s Presidential election, financial institutions folding over like the house of cards they were made of, and the bitter $7 Billion dollar bail-out pill that no one should have to swallow, it’s amazing any real estate transactions were done at all.
Here’s how the week went in Belmont:
We now have 55 homes listed for sale—up from 49 last week.
Nine new listings hit the market in Belmont while 12 members of Congress played politics with the bailout. Three homes went pending as two more banks merged into one. And finally three—only three—homes closed escrow (at the end of the month nonetheless) and as more banks failed.
Just to put the paltry number of sales for the month of September in Belmont in perspective, in September of 2001, after the United States was attacked by terrorists we still had twelve sales—three more than this September.
You can read our September monthly wrap-up for Belmont here.
NEW LISTINGS
2 Arroyo View Circle 3 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,270 Sq. Ft. TOWNHOME LISTED for $799,000. These town homes are 11 years old and are rather nice. OPEN SUNDAY 10/5 1:00-4:00 Listed By Nadr Essabhoy, Alain Pinel Realtors
1935 Hillman 4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,580 Sq. Ft. home for $1,150,000. We saw this home last time it sold back in 2003 when it closed for $840,000. The outside façade is a little dated and there’s little yard as it is also a cliff clinger. Listed By Ken Ichiki, Alain Pinel Realtors
813 Miramar Terrace 3 Bed 2.5 bath 1,860 Sq. Ft. home for $1,745,000. What a cool pad! Check this one out this weekend Sunday 10/5 from 1:00-4:30. This home makes you feel like you’re a movie star complete with pool guest house—Cabana boy optional. Listed By Julie Geyer, Carlmont Associates
2430 Coronet Blvd. 3 Bed 1.5 Bath 1,460 Sq. Ft. home for $778,888. Too new to review but at that price this might not be around very long. Put this home on your short list for Belmont. OPEN SUNDAY 2:00-4:00. Listed By Lorelei Keim, Coldwell Banker Sure to be our Belmont’s Best Deal of the week!
809 North Road 3 Bed 1.5 Bath 1,160 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $629,900. This is a bank sale. It was on the market last year for $900,000. The seller bought it for $670,000 back in 2005. Now you know how far some of the prices have dropped. Decent home in a decent area. Listed By Jan Majeski, Alain Pinel Realtors
1121 Furlong 3 Bed 1 Bath 1,190 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $654,000. Located in Homeview, this home is a fixer upper. OPEN SUNDAY 10/5 1:00-4:00
By Mark Dunn, Out of Area Office
2812 Wakefield 4 Bed 3 Bath 2.490 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $1,388,831. Don’t you just love the exact pricing model employed by some agents? Seriously, this home has killer views, is pretty clean and updated inside. The yard is a bungee jump below but heck it’s hard to get everything you want for less than 2 million dollars. Listed By Donna Marie Baldwin, Coldwell Banker-Burlingame
533 Seagate 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,650 Sq. FT home LISTED for $609,000. I have absolutely NO information on this home because 1) there is no tour scheduled for agents, 2) there is no lock box to get in 3) there are no open houses scheduled and 4) there are no pictures. Sorry, but it’s NOT my listing. Listed By Frank Yim, Aquarius Realty
915 Academy 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,100 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $799,000. OPEN SUNDAY 10/5 1:30-4:30 TOO NEW TO REVIEW.
Re-Listed:
1224 North Road 2 Bed 1 Bath 980 Sq. Ft. home for $599,000. Re-listed with a new agent, this home has great S.F. Bay views but no yard. Nicely updated inside but we disliked the shared driveway. Listed By Trula B. Floyd, Help-U-Sell Floyd Realty
2207 Cipriani Blvd. 5 Bed 3 Bath 2,410 Sq. Ft home for $1,255,000. This home was listed last November for $1,255,000 and lowered to $1,199,000 where it sat for five months and did not sell. Now it’s back up at $1,255,000—hmm Listed By Adele Della-santina, Cashin Company
2406 Coronet Blvd. 4 Bed 3.5 Bath 3,390 Sq. Ft. home for $1,495,000. Well, it will be 3,390 Sq Ft when it gets completed. So far just the framing is up. When it’s done, it will be a cliff clinger with little rear yard unless they terrace something out of the hillside. Sorry No Open House.
SALES (Closed Escrow)
Notice all three homes sold over their asking price.
↑1514 Pine Knoll Drive 2 Bed 1 Bath 1,200 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $799,000 SOLD for $815,000—DOM 18
↑3410 Hillcrest 3 Bed 2 Bath 1,640 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $849,000 SOLD for $908,000—8 DOM. This was our Belmont’s Best Deal in the week it premiered.
↑1941 Hillman 2 Bed 2 Bath 1,120 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $778,000 SOLD for $803,000—2 DOM
If your property is currently listed for sale this is not intended as a solicitation of your listing. Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this intended to be specific to your situation-always consult a specialist who is familiar with the details of your situation.
Belmont–September Housing Statistics
Belmont’s housing sales for the month of September are in the books and the less than stellar report is probably not surprising given what you instinctively know.
Consumer confidence numbers are indicative of consumer sentiment and consumer confidence, although slightly higher than in August, is at only 59.8—indexed to 1985 when it was at 100. That’s not the whole story though as we predict it will drop once the consumer uncertainty over the seven billion dollar bailout are reflected in October’s numbers.
This graph illustrates the correlation between the number of available homes for sale and the number of sales.
Although inventory levels remain in check, the number of sales is disturbingly low for the month of September. As you can see by the interactive graph, September sales weren’t even this low in the month following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. The difference of course is that inventory levels are much lower than in 2001 and that alone should help keep values from deteriorating at an unhealthy pace.
The median price has held its’ own but one must remember that the median price statistic is the median price of homes which sold, not necessarily what the median price is for Belmont homes. That said the median price rose by $3,000 over the month of August while the median size home sold was considerably smaller—210 feet to be exact. At $527 per square foot that is a significant sign that values are holding relatively firm considering the tumultuous environment and we give this market indicator a positive denotation on that very note.
Here’s how the numbers stack up as compared to Augus
t:
(click for a larger view)
This is Belmont’s Full report for September 2008:
(click for a larger view)
Staging Your Home for Sale
You’ve no doubt heard the term “staging” a home but there’s a lot more to getting your home ready for sale than just bringing in plants and re-arranging furniture. 
Listen your our short video Podcast to see several homes we completely updated.
Belmont Housing Activity–Week Ending September 27, 2008
Despite the radical financial news in the headlines people continue to buy homes and move forward with their lives.
Belmont’s inventory rose from a three week pattern of 47 listings to 49. New listings accounted for six of those and two more were –re-listed bringing this last week’s total of “new listings†to eight.
Pending sales also rose and last week as six homes went into contract. Just three homes sold but in all likelihood that will increase next week as we approach the end of the month.
NEW LISTINGS
19 Anita Court—4 Bed 3.5 Bath 1,965 Sq. Ft. home for $1,388,888
Not really on a court at all, in fact the address should have read 19 Anita Avenue—opps.
Nicely appointed new construction on two levels. The level rear yard is accessed through the master bedroom, not our favorite design. Views are of the lower San Mateo section of 42nd street but end with San Francisco in the distant background. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 1:30-4:30–Listed By Patricia Gill, Cashin Company
1314 Paloma—3 Bed 3 Bath 2,390 Sq. Ft. home for $ 995,000
Sound too good to be true? Price per square foot this sounds like a deal, and it is if you don’t mind living in a home clinging to a cliff. Nice bay views but don’t expect a large yard for running around. BTW—this last sold in 2005 for $945,000. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 1:30-4:30–Listed By Michael Johnston, Alain Pinel Realtors
100 Newcastle—4 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,760 Sq. Ft. home for $975,000.
This home is located out in Redwood Shores though actually part of Belmont. Nice commute to Oracle! Not Open until Sunday, October 5th from 1:00-4:00–Listed By Arnaldo Salazar, Worldnet Realty
1980 Alden—3 Bedroom 1 Bath 1,126 Sq. Ft. home for $799,000
Alden is a nice but busy street and these homes are up a slight hill. The home’s nice inside but still needs some updating. It’s got a terraced rear yard that is mostly level. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 2:00-4:30–Listed By Debbie Wilhelm, Coldwell Banker
2908 Belmont Woods Way—3 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,850 Sq. Ft. ATTACHED home for $ 1,100,000
These high-end townhomes are located at the entrance to Belcrest Gardens (Hallmark) area in Belmont. They sport dramatic high ceilings and they’re located in their own little enclave. Nice for those who want space and low maintenance yards—because you really don’t have one. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 2:00-4:00–Listed By Cheryl Price, Alain Pinel Realtors
1540 Fifth Ave—3 Bed 2 Bath 1,350 Sq. Ft. home for $910,000. Open Sunday, 9/28 from 1:30-4:30. Too new to review. Listed By Frank E Nichols, Century 21 Alliance
Located in the lower Belmont hills on the border of San Carlos, this area is zoned mixed use with high density multi-unit housing so the area is a blessing of single family homes and well kept apartments. As you can see it has room for a boat, but not for cars and a boat. Too new for tour but it’s open Sunday, 9/28 from 2:00-4:30
SORRY—No BEST DEALS this WEEK. We just couldn’t find any to wrap our head around.
RE-LISTS
2776 Belmont Canyon Road—5 Bed 4+ Bath 3,000 Sq. Ft. home for $1,488,000
Still overpriced in our estimation, this cliffhanger home has nice views of San Francisco and a level yard are, though it’s three stories down to get to it. Kind of a choppy floor plan in our opinion but very stately. Listed By Debbie Wilhelm, Coldwell Banker
3715 Encline Way—4 Bed-3 Bath 1,965 Sq. Ft. home for $995,000
We didn’t care for this home though it did get a contract on it that apparently fell through. It’s back on the market at the same price. Listed By Barney Diamos, Diamosbusiness Group
PENDING SALES
Our Belmont’s BEST DEAL from two weeks ago went into contract on Tahoe and last week’s Best Deal on Palmer sold in just four says.
Also going into contract were 317 Malcolm, 15 Kittie Lane that’s been on the market FOREVER (268 days) and 2319 Coronet, once again.
SALES (Closed Escrow)
↓1826 Oak Knoll —4 Bed 2.5 Bath 2,460 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $999,888 SOLD for $950,000. This home was on the market since June when it was listed for $1,159,000.
↑905 Avon Street—4 Bed 2.5 Bath 1,820 Sq. Ft. home LISTED for $999,000 SOLD for $1,050,000 in 24 days. Defying all logic, this home sold after more than three weeks for $51,000 over asking and the listing never even had a picture in the MLS. Wonder what it could have sold for?
Median Price Methodology–What’s Your Home Really Worth?
As a frequently unasked question and part of our real estate REVEALED series, we delve into how the median price is determined and reported for your city.
Listen right here or subscribe to our Podcast by clicking on the upper left RSS icon.
This graph illustrates the appreciation for homes which sold in the second quarter of 2008 and had previously sold within the last ten years.
Clearly the best way of determining what appreciation is for a particular home is to watch the home trade hands in an arm’s length transaction several times over many years without any major improvements (other than maintenance).
The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Methodology comes closest to achieving this on a macro level. However there are inherent limitations in the methodology they employ. We’re not here to find fault with their method of data collection and interpretation—clearly it is as good as it gets on a macro-level—but for interpreting micro or niche markets it uses too broad a brush to paint an accurate picture of a particular area’s housing landscape. Here’s why:
· It lumps many micro and niche markets into one large metropolitan area and cannot effectively differentiate smaller market areas since it relies on huge volumes of data in order to arrive at meaningful results.
· It uses an algorithm to exclude all old sale pairs to support their assumption that older home sale pairs must have been remodeled. This has the unwanted effect of throwing the baby out with the bathwater, and discards very valuable information on repeat sales pairs which have not been updated over long periods of time.
We have overcome these limitations by being able to use the "sales pair" methodology and exclude homes that have been remodeled based on our personal experience in seeing virtually every home that has sold. In fact some of the home sales used are homes we’ve personally sold in the course of our 17 years in business.
However, due to the relatively small market sample our data will be more vulnerable to isolated sale anomalies but to a certain degree that is mitigated in that 100% of our data is usable—and local.
-
We can also go back to homes that sold recently which have not traded hands in the last 30 years and still included them in our study so long as we can verify they have not been remodeled.
-
We can also distill this information down by neighborhood.
Essentially we have watched the same sales pairs sell and can analyze the empirical and statistical data to offer a sound assessment of a particular areas value trends.
Here are some interesting facts–for 2nd quarter 2008 sales:
· 58 homes sold during this period
· 22 had not sold within past nine years and were excluded
· 11 were remodeled and excluded
· 25 were not remodeled and were used for our study
· Only homes sold that were purchased after 2005 have sold for less than what they were purchased for.
Of those seven sales after 2005:
1 was a foreclosure
1 was a short sale
1 was an REO (bank owned sale)
2 non distressed properties showed an average of 11% appreciation
1 non distressed property lost 15%
1 non distressed property lost 20%
The homes that were selected had sold in prior years and had no extensive remodeling performed. Each sale pair represents the best analysis presently available for tracking the same home exchanging hands over time. Several recent distressed sales have perhaps skewed the numbers in that they were foreclosures selling at what was owed, not what it might have been worth. Nevertheless the data is for the most part reliable and illustrates that only people who overpaid for homes from 2005-2007 may now own a home worth less than what they paid for it as a result of the downturn.
Belmont’s SAVE THE MUSIC
This is a great opportunity to get out and support the Save the Music foundation while enjoying a great day with your neighbors and friends. The whole town becomes one giant street faire with food vendors, music and dancing—all outdoors at the Twin Pines Park.
“Twin Pines Park is the perfect backdrop to grab some delicious food, sip sangria or an Oktoberfest brew, and listen to classical, jazz, rock, and salsa performances. Feeling the need to move your hips? Grab a partner and hit the Club Mistral dance floor, or just groove out in the meadow. 3 Stages brimming with music and fun!
Parents will love the variety the event offers for the whole family. The Children’s Area offers all the games young children love, as well as jump houses, train rides, and the wonderful children’s performers. Of course, Music is the main event so take the family over to the “Musical Instrument Petting Zoo†and have fun trying out all the different instruments.â€
We hope to see you Sunday, October 5th – bring a friend!
About The Foundation
Whether it’s Bach or the Beatles, The Rolling Stones or The Wiggles, each of us is moved by music.
In 2003 School-Force, the Belmont Redwood Shores School District foundation, created Save the Music with the Little School District that Could to help save disappearing music enrichment programs in our schools. Since its inception, the Save the Music Festival has raised more than $250,000 through corporate sponsorships and community participation, funds which have been used to retain music teachers, develop music curriculums, and purchase music instruments.