Housing Market Prices Halve

With the Autumnal Equinox just around the corner, we look back a great summer. Now to get caught up on the housing market since we’ve took some much needed time off.

On the national level…we gleam this insight from Standard and Poor’s website…

“Home price gains continue to ease as they have since last fall,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “For the first time since February 2008, all cities showed lower annual rates than the previous month. Other housing indicators – starts, existing home sales and builders’ sentiment – are positive. Taken together, these point to a more normal housing sector.

“The monthly National Index rose 0.9% in June. While all 20 cities saw higher home prices over the last 12 months, all experienced slower gains. In San Francisco, the pace of price increases halved since late last summer. The Sun Belt cities – Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami and Tampa – all remain a third or more below their peak prices set almost a decade ago.

“Bargain basement mortgage rates won’t continue forever; recent improvements in the labor markets and comments from Fed chair Janet Yellen and others hint that interest rates could rise as soon as the first quarter of 2015. Rising mortgage rates won’t send housing into a tailspin, but will further dampen price gains.”

“All 20 cities used for the Case-Shiller report saw their year-over-year rates weaken in June. For the second consecutive month, San Francisco saw its rate decelerate by almost three percentage points – from 18.4% in April to 12.9% in June. Phoenix showed its smallest year-over-year gain of 6.9% since March 2012. Cleveland showed a marginal increase of 0.8% over the last 12 months while Las Vegas led with a gain of 15.2%. All cities reported price increases for the third consecutive month; it would have been a fourth had New York not declined 0.4% in March. San Francisco posted its eighth consecutive price increase but showed its smallest gain of 0.3% since February. Five cities – Detroit, Las Vegas, New York, Phoenix and San Diego – posted larger gains in June than in May. Dallas and Denver continue to set new peaks while Detroit remains the only city below its January 2000 value.”

Everybody wants to know when this crazy market will end.  People just can’t imagine that it will continue at this pace—and of course it won’t, and it didn’t and we’ve been predicating this all along; that the rate of appreciation would wane once home prices rebounded to levels which are sustainable.

The housing market dropped too far and filling that void happened very fast—essentially 2012 until now. We are now reaching new high home values and people are just plain being priced out—with fewer and fewer people who can afford the median price home.  But while the rate of appreciation is slowing, home values are continuing to rise, just at a much more sustainable and slower pace.

The San Francisco MSA (which consists of the counties of San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Contra Costa and Alameda), while experiencing a slowdown in the rate of appreciation (by almost half), nevertheless still enjoyed a 12.9% increase year-over-year.  You can see a graph we’ve put together of the SF MSA data points illustrating the trend over the past 27 years.

*Note—the Standard & Poor’s Index lags the market by three months.

The good news is a home won’t cost you 25% more next year, probably just around 10%. But who wants to pay a 10% penalty for waiting?

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Home Value Increases Taper in July

July is a great month in Belmont as the wind winds down a bit in anticipation of our Indian summer.

We hope everyone had a great Fourth of July weekend and our slightly warmer than usual weekend.

If you are interested in the local microclimates in Belmont you can visit Weather Underground’s web site where folks like us upload our personal home weather station data. It’s interesting to see the various Belmont of micro-climate pockets.

On to the numbers…

[Click on the picture for a large view]
[Click on the picture for a large view]

 

Talk about low inventory–real estate has been very slow this week as you can imagine. Tuesday was our Broker tour day and there no new listings in Belmont or San Carlos to even view. We can’t remember the last time that happened.

In this post we visit the home sales in Belmont for the month of June 2014.

SALES

Sales of existing single family homes dropped 15% over last year from 26 sales to 22 this June.

 

 

 

 

MEDIAN PRICE

Belmont’s median home price rose almost 20% over June of last year. The size of homes selling in the two periods also dropped almost 10% from 1975 square feet in 2013 to 1778 square feet in 2014 which does nothing but exacerbate the median price increase since for 20% more you can now buy a home 10% smaller. At $1,099,000, though, it’s a steep drop from May’s astounding median price of $1,300,000. Of course the homes which sold in May were over 16% larger and the median price only dropped 8.4% so there’s still a paper net gain of 8%.

Compared to June of last year, single family residential median price levels rose in all counties with Santa Cruz County up 20%, Monterey County up 16%, San Mateo up 14%, San Benito up 15% and Santa Clara County up 12%.

DOM

The time it took to sell the average home in Belmont was 12 days—down from 14 last year.

OVER ASKING SALES

91% of the homes sold over asking in June of 2014 compared to 88% during the same time last year.

PERCENT RECEIVED OF ASKING

This is the one statistic that indicates a slowdown in the rate of market appreciation. In 2013 the average seller received 112% of their asking price. That dropped to 109% this month—exactly on par with last month.

What does this drop mean? It’s probably indicative of values getting closer to where they should be for now. The initial increase we have seen over the last two years was clearly unsustainable but also understandable.

Prices had dropped well below expected value levels and that deficit was easily wiped out in 2012 as the market began its rebound in earnest. In 2013 we saw the rebound continue into unchartered waters and prices hit a high watermark. This year we see more of the same but as prices continue to rise fewer people can qualify for the median priced home and begin to seek less expensive cities—watch out east bay.

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

 

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Drew & Christine Morgan did not necessarily participate in these sales.

 

Home Prices Expected to Jump

In the summer of 2007 our preferred lender Steve Herbert from the now defunct Washington Mutual called for an emergency meeting in our Belmont office. His agenda, the sky was about to fall on the lending industry. Of course what followed was the collapse of dozens of financial institutions and decline in the housing industry not seen since the great depression.

Lending standards were tightened during this three year downturn and money was lent to only AAA clients. Credit was hard to come by and loans such as stated income for self-employed people were nowhere to be had.

Fast forward seven years and in our meeting today, Steve Herbert stood in front of our group of three offices and announced that the lending standards have been significantly reduced.

Fisher Investments foretold this turnaround over a month ago in our meeting in Woodside with their Financial Investment Group.

We’re seeing it every day—new offers from banks wanting to lend their money with generous programs to help people with less than 20% down, self-employed, or less than stellar credit scores.

What does this mean for you?

If you are considering buying a home the good news is credit will be easier to get—finally. The bad news is that will increase the number of buyers who can qualify for a loan—increasing your competition. This will invariably put even more upward pressure on prices. Just when we thought the rate of appreciation might begin to wane, looser lending standards are tantamount to adding fuel to the fire of home values.

Putting your home search on hold in fear that values are unsustainable may be a fool’s game as less strict lending standards just prolonged the recovery before any market downturn.

We’re into the housing recovery for two years now and we expect that when a correction does occur—and if history repeats itself the cycle will—price declines may only wipe out the last several years of increases. Perhaps five or seven years from now as prices continue to have climbed to new highs will they begin to drop. Based upon past real estate boom and bust cycles, we doubt they will drop back to today’s prices.

This graph illustrates San Mateo County Home Price Trend vs. the City of Belmont. Notice home values are more volatile when viewing a wide swath such as San Mateo County with its dramatically varying cities including Atherton and Daly City. Belmont on the other hand was more insulated during the downturn than the SMC index. Belmont home prices essentially dropping in 2009 to lows equivalent of those of five years previous but within several months after the low in 2009 they had recovered to levels seen in 2006 and by October of 2013 they has eclipsed their previous high in 2008.

 

Bel smc graph for merdian price trend

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course while we will benefit both personally and professionally as will many of our clients from these more broad lending standards, we could have managed at the current levels which would in all likelihood result in a more stable housing industry and helped avoid more bubbles like we saw in the last decade. And while some specific regulations will help restrict similar dire consequences from occurring, there are others (sub-prime mortgages for example) that will once again allow those who perhaps should not yet own a home to get one–and lapse back into trouble–we’ll see.

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Belmont Home Values–Are They Sustainable in 2014?

Belmont Home Values for 2013–A Market Re-Cap

This year-end summary is where we bring you the re-cap for Belmont Home Sales. To say the least, Belmont sellers had a good year. After watching their home values drop for five years in a row (until 2011), they finally enjoyed some relief in 2012 and in 2013 as Belmont home prices reached a new high never seen before.

Here’s how it all stacked up.

This graph shows the median price in Belmont from 2012 through 2013. Many postulate about whether the market has returned to its previous high. To answer that, we looked at the median home trend in Belmont going back to 1998. Belmont’s median home price was over the million dollar mark for every month last year—save March. The closest we came to that was back in 2007 when we hit a period over the million dollar mark only twice. In many areas of the east bay and the country as a whole, they are still shy of the highs seen in 2006.

Belmont Median Price Trend 1012-2013

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

The median home price in Belmont last year, as reported by the Multiple Listing Service [MLS] in aggregate form, was up 19.5% from $949,230 in 2012 to $1,133,917 in 2013.  But not all areas fared the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This map show which areas of Belmont increased more year-over-year than others. If this seems odd to you, read the post we did on Which City is More Affordable—Belmont or San Carlos where we discuss some of the idiosyncrasies that have an effect on micro-regional values.

Belmont 2013 areas median Adjusted

 

If you’re like us and you are wondering why some areas of Belmont saw so much more appreciation than others, we took another step and looked into the size of homes selling in the respective areas during the two periods to see if that could account for the variance.

The red percent displayed on the map is the raw median price reported by the MLS and the blue percent is an adjusted percentage taking into consideration that either smaller or larger homes sold in the two periods.

These are our findings:

 

Areas

2012

2013

Variance

Raw Increase

Adjusted
Hallmark

2150

2280

6%

30%

24%
Skymont

2020

1830

-9%

20%

29%
Belmont CC

1840

1870

2%

15%

13%
Carlmont

1800

2029

13%

40%

27%
Sterling Downs

1190

1220

3%

27%

24%

 

This of course would indicate a raw median home price in Belmont of 26% and an adjusted one of 23.5%–much closer to the numbers reported in aggregate form from the MLS.

INVENTORY

The big brouhaha last year was over the lack of inventory. There were only seven fewer homes listed for sale in 2013 but 23 more sales than in 2012. Of course, this created fewer homes for buyers to choose from, which then led to bidding competition and prices going up at exponential rates.

DOM (Days on the Market)

The time it took to sell a home in Belmont last year almost dropped in half from 2012—from 37 to only 21 days.

PERCENT RECEIVED OF ASKING

The “Sizzle Factor”, or “How Hot Is the Market?” reached a new high with the average Belmont home seller receiving 108% of their asking price compared to 102% in 2012.

What can we expect in 2013? Probably more of the same. The median home price rate of appreciation should slow, as many homes which were under market value have regained much of their lost appreciation. We’d take a guess that appreciation will be closer to 14%-16% on average for Belmont—down about 5% from what we will imagine was the height of appreciation increases in 2013—we’ll see.

The factors to watch which could alter this trend will be the waning bond purchases by the FED which will serve to raise interest rates and may take away the ability for buyers to bid so much over the asking price in the latter part of 2014.

This begs the initial question of are these homes values sustainable and the answer is that depends. If the economy continues to improve and the rate of appreciation slows, than the short answer is yes—for now. But recent developments in China’s economy could have an impact on the rate of future appreciation and the U.S. economic rebound. Remember, what started the whole Bay Area recovery was jobs. If that changes, the game we know today could be over very soon.

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441 or emailed at info@morganhomes.com.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

 

Belmont Home Sales – Are We Headed for a Cool Down or Not?

Like a marathon finish before the New Year, Belmont’s home sales hung in there for at least one more month as October’s home sale statistics showed little signs of distress.

It’s actually amazing for us to see just how strong the market is going into what is typically a seasonal slowdown period.

In order to make any sense of Belmont’s housing statistics, we look at year-over-year numbers rather than month-to-month changes which are often influenced by seasonal factors.

Belmont Home Sale Activity-October 2013

SALES

The sales for October were virtually unchanged from last year when 23 homes sold in 2012 and 24 in 2013.

How’s the Inventory?

That’s all the buzz with agents complaining daily about no housing inventory.

 

There are three factors to look at when thinking about the inventory level.

  • The number of new listings
  • The number of sales
  • And the overall inventory level

The number of new listings this October went from 14 in 2012 to 17, the number of sales were up this year by one, yet the overall inventory dropped from 32 to 24 this October.

In October of 2013 the number of available homes for sale was 32, while this year that number dropped to only 24. That brought down the “Months of Inventory” statistic which measure the time (in months) that it would take to sell all of the existing homes on the market at the current rate of sales. Nationwide, that number is still around five months of inventory.

Belmont dropped from 1.39 months last October to 1.04 this year.

With sales staying relatively static, and new listings increasing in 2013, why then does the months of inventory counterintuitively shrink rather than grow?

The answer lies in the number of leftover homes from the previous month which linger on the market. Last year the market was strong, but not as hot as this year, so some of the September homes for sale last year managed to spill over into October causing the overall inventory to increase.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price this October recorded at $1,135,000 which may have been a seasonal drop from August 2013 when it stood at a record high of $1,239,000, but an increase year-over-year of 16.1% when last October the median price was only $977,500. In both periods the size homes which sold were relatively unchanged at 2,037 Sq. in 2012 to 2,060 Sq. in 2013.

PERCENT RECEIVED—THE SIZZLE FACTOR Hot Pepper 25

So how hot is the market? Just last month we were seeing some signs of a cool fall market but October’s number appear to have staved off the winter housing chill for at least one more month. Could it be the warmer than usual fall we are enjoying? Perhaps. In any case, this October 20 of the homes or 83% sold over the seller’s asking price, while one home sold at asking and only two sold for less.

Last October only 35% of the homes sold over the asking price, two sold at asking and 22% sold for less.

The percent sellers received of their asking price were 100.3 vs. 108.5 in 2013. Hotter than last year, and hotter than last month when the sellers received 106% of asking.

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Drew & Christine Morgan did not necessarily participate in these sales.

Multiple Offers and How to Win the Housing Bidding War

Multiple Offers and How to Win the War

With increasing bidding wars in real estate, bidding on a home in the Bay Area can be a challenge at best with exceedingly frustrating closer to the norm. It’s reminiscent of the ugly Cabbage Patch Doll fights that broke out in department stores in the early 1980’s where there were more parents head hunting Cabbage Patch Dolls for Christmas than the stores could produce—one of the more shallow behavioral moments in our nation’s history.

We recently sold a home in Belmont which we listed at $900,000. We received four offers the first week. The seller chose to accept the highest non-contingent offer—not the highest offer. There was a higher offer at $1,003,000 which they did not entertain due to an inspection contingency. Last year when another agent had this home listed for sale, the sellers had two buyers rescind their deals and the sellers wanted to avoid that frustration again. They decided they were willing to accept $27,000 less for their home for the peace of mind of knowing they had a sure deal.

We think they made the right decision. Because it’s not just peace of mind they were getting, they were also getting $76,000 over their asking price—more-or-less a sure thing. Had they opted to roll the dice and the higher offer rescinded, to resurrect the $976,000 offer a second time around would be difficult. In all likelihood they would be relegated to an offer down around their initial $900,000 list price. Gambling on $27,000 when they stood to lose $76,000 just didn’t make send to them—or us either.

Last September, with multiple offers well established as the norm, we wrote an article for our blog site discussing the pitfalls of contingencies in an offer. In the last year nothing has changed except we have more empirical evidence that contingent offers often lose in a multiple offer situation, and sellers get less for their home if they have to re-market the property.

Now if your parents won’t help you with the down payment unless you promise to include a contingency, there are alternatives but they relegate you to homes where nobody else is bidding—which also means they are overpriced. Better to explain to Mom and Dad that the market has changed since they bought their last home.

So here’s the lesson about contingencies—think about it—in the above scenario, the high bidder had to make their offer $27,000 more and as it turns out it cost them the home as the seller didn’t take their offer. So how much does a contingency in an offer cost? Would the seller have accepted a contingent offer $50,000 or more above the next highest offer?

NOTE: We’re aware that many agents admonish their clients to not forgo contingencies and the genesis of their fear is to insulate them from any possible repercussions after the sale. The California Association of REALTORS recently held a seminar with the top CAR attorneys discussing exactly how to write non-contingent offers since the standard of practice in our area has evolved to embraced such practices.

Disclaimer:
Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441.
The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Are Belmont Home Values Near The TOP–August 2013

Are home values near the top? Thus far this year the media focus has been to highlight the hot local housing market. Now it seems they are looking for any signs of it faltering to present a new angle. And in deed you may have already heard the recent reports from Case-Shiller and others indicating that the market is showings signs of cooling off.

When will it begin to cool? Has it already?

Remember—real estate is local yet media reports often are not. What you might be hearing in the news may not apply to the neighborhood where you live.

With the biggest housing crash since the great depression* still front and center in our memories, it’s no wonder that potential purchasers might be wary of how fast the market has rebounded.

We recently released an article discussing those very points—“What’s in store in Q4”. In it, we delve into why we believe if recent changes in market forces continue, the once rapid rise in home values will begin to wane.

AUGUST 2013—For now, the numbers are in for Belmont for August 2013 (Septembers will be out soon), and there’s no sign of a let up in our fervent housing activity—at least according to the numbers for August.

Belmont Home Values Aug 2013

[click on the graphic for a larger picture]

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

Most notably is the pace of the median home price in Belmont. It stands at $1,105,000 which is a 20% increase over last year during the same time. We’re the first to look at the size of homes selling in the two periods to see if perhaps larger or smaller homes sold and skewed the median home price. But what we found was that in August of this year the homes that comprised the sales mix were 16% smaller and yet cost 20% more. Also interesting to note was that the median home price in Belmont has been over the million dollar mark for the last four consecutive months—in fact had the median home price not dipped just below that threshold in April of this year, it would have been over the million dollar mark every month so far this year. Contrast that to the historical median price trend in Belmont which has never had consecutive months over the million dollar mark.

Summary—Belmont homes values have hit a new high.

SALES

August of 2013 saw a 55% increase in home sales and paradoxically a 70% decrease in new listings.

MONTHS OF INVENTORY†

That brings us to the inventory which was down 131% from August of 2012 resulting in a record low “Months of Inventory” factor of .73, down from 2.6 months in 2012.

DOM [Days on Market]

The average time it took to sell a home which closed in August was 17 days, down from 31 in 2012.

PERCENT RECEIVED OF ASKING

This August 80% of the sellers received on average $130,000 or 9% over their asking price as compared to 44% of sellers receiving $60,000 or on average 2% more than asking in 2012.

In short, the inevitable slowdown in the RATE of appreciation is news but it hasn’t appeared in the statistics yet. If you talk with a Belmont REALTOR® you’ll no doubt hear they think the market has cooled off a bit. We’ll look at September’s sales to see if that’s true, because July sales, (which resulted in August statistics), didn’t bear that out and neither did our first-hand experience.

Sellers of homes in Belmont should know that the majority of the rebound in equity has already occurred. The rate of appreciation will slow as the market forces we discuss on our blog begin to kick in. If we’re right and they do, the housing market will become much more sustainable—we have our fingers crossed.

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble

†Months of inventory is the time as measured in months that it would take to sell all of the homes currently listed for sale, assuming no more new homes were listed.

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS with RE/MAX and a NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years of experience helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508-1441.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Drew & Christine Morgan did not necessarily participate in these sales.

What Does Q4 Have in Store for Our Local Housing Market?

Is it a bubble?Now that the media is hyping our local market once again with horror stories of multiple offers, and media proclaimed “Bidding Wars”, our attention turns to watching for signs of a change in the tempo of sales and/or over asking offers. Everyone knows the Peninsula housing market is red hot, and has been for more than a year now. The question now becomes, “When will it change?”

Some Pundits are already predicting a crash in what they perceive as an overheated housing bubble. Of course if they continue droning on about a market crash their theory eventually may come to fruition, but for now their bubble is more akin to a hot air balloon with scant facts to back it up.

The Case-Shiller report by Standard & Poor’s is a good macro-barometer of our Bay Area housing market and the nation as a whole. The Case-Shiller report, most recently released on September 24th 2013, showed an increase in the 20 largest housing markets across the country. In our area or “MSA” (Metropolitan Statistical Area), which includes the Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, the index had risen 25% from July 2012 through July 2013 [Case-Shiller reports are delayed by three months so the September reports was actually for July].

Economists, like the National Association of REALTOR’S Lawrence Yun, have warned that prices have been rising “too fast” and at these double-digit rates of appreciation are “unsustainable”. We couldn’t agree more. The current rate is unsustainable in the long run, but we believe that many factors already in play will mitigate the danger of a bubble. But let’s take a small step back. Part of the reason that home prices have increased so dramatically is that in many areas they were below reasonable market values for so long that just returning to normal would be a huge increase. Many areas saw homes values plummet below the cost of construction. Home prices have not reached the May 2006 peak where the SF MSA stood at a whopping 218—24% higher than today. At the current rate of price increase home values would reach the peak seen in May of 2006 in one year from now.

We don’t believe that will happen—not even in the crazy Bay Area real estate market. Why?

What’s already in play to slow the engine of appreciation and avoid another economic train wreck?

  • More homes are being built as companies try to meet the new housing demands—this takes pressure off of the tight inventory
  • Interest rates will begin rising making homes less affordable—this will put pressure on price increases and most certainly limit over asking offers
  • More equity sellers are being created every day—more inventory will mean less upward pressure on prices
  • Investors are taking a break—as interest rates rise and unbelievable deals once had from the recession are gone, investors look for other opportunities outside of housing. Less competition for homes will help keep a lid on housing inflation.

According to the Case-Shiller study, “Since April 2013, all 20 cities are up month to month; however, the monthly rates of price gains have declined. More cities are experiencing slow gains each month than the previous month, suggesting that the rate of increase may have peaked.

Morgan Brennan who writes for Forbes Magazine on U.S. Housing markets, summed it up best in her article back in June titled “3 Reasons The ‘Bubble-Like’ Surge in Home Prices Won’t Last“. And since we agree with her sentiments, rather than re-invent the wheel we rather encourage you to read more about her theory.

 

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA. with more than 20 years experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Bay Area Home Prices Rise But Interest Rates May Dampen Values

The price of homes in the Bay Area rose 25% or more in the last year. So how does one cope with the rising tide of home values? For that, we offer you a new way of looking at the circumstances.

Perfect Storm

When gas prices shot up close to $5.00 per gallon a few years back, a friend of mine was waxing on about how much more it now cost him to put gas in his car. He was puzzled when I told him I wasn’t spending any more at the pump than before. “Why not?” he exclaimed. I told him it was simple, when I arrive at the gas station I pump $50.00 of gas into my car, whatever the price of gas—so it never costs me more than $50.00 at any visit to the gas station.

While at first this may appear to be lacking in the critical thinking department, the only real dilemma is that of course with less gas in your tank, one can’t drive as far.

We bring this up because our local real estate market will soon be suffering the same fate. Buyers will be forced to decide if they are willing to pay more for the same home, or settle for less home to keep their payment the same.

Why Higher Interest Rates May Change the Landscape—The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Wells Fargo—the nation’s largest market for refinancing and purchase mortgage loans—was cutting its staff by another 2,300 jobs nationwide. The reason? Wells Fargo owned 30% of the mortgage market until recently when the bank’s market share dropped this quarter to 23% of mortgage originations, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.

Refinance as a percentage of mortgage applications were 54% in the second quarter, down from 69% in the year earlier period—and Wells Fargo is assuming it will get worse. So if the nation’s largest mortgage lending institution is betting that refinances will continue to wane due to an inevitable rise in interest rates, it begs the issue to consider the impact this will have on our local market.

Buyers have enjoyed relatively inexpensive purchase money loans enabling them to afford more home and rationalize bidding thousands of dollars over the seller’s asking price.  But with home prices rising 26% in the Bay Area year-over year, buyers have already had to make a choice between paying on average 26% more for the same home they could have bought a year earlier, or settling for a home 26% smaller.

This summer, interest rates are already over 1% more than where they were a year ago; and we expect they will continue to rise. Buyers will either learn to set their expectations lower, or pay more to remain competitive.

If you own a home and have been considering a move, you may have been reluctant to sell when values appear to be rising at an exponential rate. But the days of double digit appreciation may already be waning. Conditions are very favorable for selling your home today, but whether or not they will remain so, or get better or worse, is a guess at best. It is yet to be determined how rising rates could alter the glorious real estate landscape sellers have enjoyed over the last year. If high demand continues along with low inventory levels, it might be possible for multiple offers to remain a norm with over asking bids. But if the higher median home prices have created more enough equity sellers, and inventory increases as demand diminishes—a  direct result of challenging affordability with higher rates and prices—many seller’s may have wished they took advantage of the perfect storm in 2013.

Disclaimer:

Drew & Christine Morgan are REALTORS/NOTARY PUBLIC in Belmont, CA with RE/MAX Star Properties. with more than 20 years’ experience in helping sellers and buyers in their community. They may be reached at (650) 508.1441.

 

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Belmont Home Values Rise Again in June But Fall Short of Surrounding Cities

One would have to be living under a rock to be oblivious to the reports of the hot Bay Area housing market. The San Jose Mercury released the headline yesterday that in the nine Bay Area counties the median home price rose 33% year over year this June.

June of 2012 was about the time we were seeing strong signs of a housing rebound but it was still too early to declare with certainty that the rebound would last—that didn’t occur until November of 2012.

One might wonder if Belmont is under performing since home prices only rose 6% this June over last. There’s actually good news for Belmont homeowners in these statistics, here’s why:

One of the main reason that home values have skyrocketed year-over-year in the nine Bay Area counties is that many of the cities in these counties had home prices which felt to levels far below where any market correction should have predicted they would land. In other words, the hardest hit areas with the most drastic price reductions are seeing the largest percentage rebound. Since Belmont’s home values fared rather well during the downturn, our rebound is more sensible.

Don’t tell that to buyers who are trying to get their first home. They’re seeing bidding wars going on which in June of 2013 made the average home in Belmont sell for 112% of the initial asking price.

Belmont Home Values Rise
Click on the graphic for a full-size screen shot

SALES

Home sales in Belmont—contrary to the nine Bay Area County trend—picked up (albeit an insignificant amount).  June of 2012 saw one more home sale than last June with 27 homes closing escrow.

The only event that helped sales in June of 2013 was that in May we had a plethora of new listings—35. Year over year that was a strong seasonal influx of new listings.

INVENTORY

This new category we are adding to the monthly report is all about inventory—the number of homes available for purchase. We measure the inventory level and compare that to the number of monthly sales to arrive at a “Months of Inventory” statistic. The so-called months-supply is the number of months required to sell the current inventory of homes at the current rate of home sales. Our nation’s housing inventory is seeing levels in the 4-5 month range while Belmont’s inventory is less than one month’s worth—that’s a very tight housing inventory.

The housing inventory in June of 2012 stood at 39 homes for sale with 25 new listings hitting the market; contrasted to June of 2013 when there were only 19 homes to sell and 15 new listings. The good news that might save July’s statistics is the rally of new listings after the Fourth of July week that saw a listing hiatus.

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

The median home price in Belmont, as mentioned above, was a more sustainable 6% increase over last June at $1,113,500, the second highest median home price ever recorded for Belmont (October of 2007 it stood at $1,135,000).

SQUARE FOOT

We always look at the size of homes selling in the two periods to see if there is an inequity but with the difference between June of 2012 and June 2013 being a meager 55 square feet smaller in 2013, it’s statistically insignificant. Why? Because appraiser don’t even account for square foot difference of less than 100 square feet.

DOM (Days on the Market)

The time it took to sell the average home in Belmont dropped dramatically from 50 days last year to only 14 this June—a 72% decrease in the time it took to sell a home.

PRICE REDUCTIONS

Price reductions are another way to catch the pulse of the market. The more sellers who have to lower their asking price expectations in order to attract a buyer says more about buyer trepidation  than seller’s lofty and overzealous price expectations. In June of 2012 four of the 26 sellers lowered their asking price while this June only one seller suffered from that fate.

PRICE RECEIVED OF ASKING

The price a seller receives also tends to be a good indication of the strength of the market. In June of 2012 57% of the homes sold for more than the asking price with a list-sale price ratio of 103%. This June 88% of the homes sold for over the asking price for on average 112% of the initial asking price.

Interest rates are rising and how that will impact our local market is yet to be seen. Clearly it has knocked a few buyers and sellers off of the fence.  It’s anyone’s guess how our local market will react but intuitively we believe that the days of multiple offers in the double digit range may be waning.

Drew & Christine are local Belmont REALTORS® and homeowners with more than 20 years experience.

Drew & Christine Morgan
REALTORS | Notary Public
(650) 508-1441

Disclaimer:

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Drew & Christine Morgan did not necessarily participate in these sales.