Belmont homes sales in June 2011 appear to be holding steady, while home values may be climbing.

Belmont JUne 2011

We’ve said it before but it’s hard to compare June of 2010 to June 2011 since June of 2010 was the last month of home closings that qualified for the $8,000 tax stimulus. Looking at last year’s home sales for the month of May and June when the program was phasing out it’s easy to see that the stimulus had an effect on the number of homes selling.

This June Belmont had 15 home sales—the same as last month, but down considerably from last June’s 25.

The time it took to sell a home dropped this June from 46 says to 36 and while last year only 48% of the homes sold for less than the seller’s asking price, this June 60% sold for less but with the seller receiving 99.25% of the asking price compared to with 98.91% of their asking price in June of 2010.

The months of inventory—or the time it would take to sell all of the remaining homes in Belmont at the current rate of sales—dropped from 3.86 in June 2010 to 2.83 in this June—nationwide, less than 3 months typically indicates a seller’s market. In Belmont we tend to notice that a bullish seller’s market occurs when we fewer than 40 homes are on the market at a given time; Belmont currently has 60—last June the inventory level was 66.

Where are Belmont home values today?

That’s the million dollar question which is on the mind of many homebuyers; Will home values continue their five year slide or have we neared the bottom?

Belmont’s median home price fell from $944,694 last June to $876,525 in June 2011 which on paper looks like a 7.2% decline.

However, looking at the median size of homes which sold in the two periods, a different story emerges. In June of last year the median size home sold was 2,170 square feet in size. Compare that with this June when the median size home was only 1769 square feet. So while the median Belmont home price appears to have declined 7.2%, the square foot differential in homes is much greater. Effectively buyers bought homes 18% smaller home this June but only got a 7.8% price break over last year—losing purchasing power to the tune of 10.2%.

Another way to look at the numbers is the median size home sold for $449 per square foot in June of 2011. If we adjust for the 401 square feet difference between last June’s homes and this year’s it could explain part of the discrepancy and account for perhaps as much as $180,049—bringing the adjusted median price this June to $1,056,574, or 12% higher than last June.

We also looked at whether last year’s June stimulus program may have artificially skewed the median home price lower with qualifying homes—those under $800,000—accounting for a greater percentage of home sales as a change in the “mix” in the size/price of homes selling could artificially alter the median home price; In fact we found the opposite to be true. Last June 24% of the homes sold were under the qualifying $800,000 price threshold while this June 33% of the homes sold were under $800,000.

Any way you slice it if you delve deeper into the statistics it’s fairly apparent that conditions are improving. We expect over the next several years to see home value fluctuations due to seasonal buying and selling patterns as well as economic conditions including job growth, consumer confidence and even the media’s focus on negative reporting—but the overall trend should remain upward—three steps forward two steps back type of progress.

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.


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