July sales statistics are in for Belmont and the numbers continue to bounce along the bottom giving rise to more confusion as to where Belmont’s housing market is going up or down. When it’s difficult to determine if you are in a Buyer or a seller’s market you are probably in neither—like a “neap tide†of appreciation.
The reason it’s not clear by looking at the numbers is each month the size of homes which sell changes the median price more than any real monthly change in value. In order to get an accurate assessment of Belmont’s housing market trend we turn to longer trends—comparing the current quarter to the previous one or the same quarter a year before.
(click on the speadsheet for a larger view)
MEDIAN PRICE
The median price in Belmont rose from $846,000 last month to $924,800 or 9.3%. The median price also rose over last July by 6.3%.
The size homes which sold this July were 7.9% larger but only cost buyers 6.3% more. Part of the discrepancy can be associated with the inability to separate land from the building.
If we look at the 145 square foot difference in the size of homes sold in the two periods, and use the median price per square foot of the larger homes, it could account for up to $70,000 in price differential. All this means is an argument can be made that home values actually decreased $15,000 or 1.6% year over year.
SALES
Sales dropped considerably this July. Historically July homes sales for Belmont have hovered around 20-25 units. Last July there were 20 sales and this year there were only 14, underscoring the trepidation among homebuyers.
QUATRELY COMPARISON
The quarterly statistics for Belmont reveal a pronounced drop in Belmont home sales activity. Comparing Belmont home sales from the second quarter or 2010 to the same quarter in 2011 we find sales (unit sold) dropped 36%, while the number of new listings dropped 22%. Clearly there were fewer homes available to sell and to some degree that impacts sales, however there’s still a disparity which cannot be ignored.
The one Belmont home sale statistic which provides a glimmer of hope for a positive trend is the median price, which rose 1% year-over year. Having fewer homes to choose from can lead buyer’s to ultimately pay more to get the home they want. Realizing that the margin of error is great than the 1% increase, it's safe to say that Belmont home values essentially remained unchanged year over year in the month of July.
With the economic conditions fostering reservations in the mind of home buyers, we anticipate mid-Peninsula homes statistics to continue to flat-line for a considerable time to come.
The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.
This is really serious. I wonder why this happened. I hope the next months will be progressive again.