From Peaks to Plateaus: A 5-Year Look at Mid-Peninsula Home Values

The Bay Area Mid-Peninsula housing market remains a focal point for both prospective buyers and sellers. In this analysis, we apply a data-driven approach to examine housing value trends from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic to the present. This longitudinal perspective highlights fluctuations in market demand and corresponding value shifts.

At present, the market appears to be exhibiting a period of relative stability. However, future trajectories in home values throughout 2025 will likely be influenced by key external variables, including interest rate movements and prevailing consumer sentiment.

📈 Trend Summary:

• 2020 to Early 2021:
  Prices were fairly flat to slightly declining, bottoming at 422.18 in Q1 2021.
• Mid 2021 to Q2 2022:
  Strong upward momentum — the index rose from 430.97 to a peak of 509.27 in April 2022, likely reflecting post-pandemic demand, low interest rates, and migration shifts.
• Q3 2022 to Q1 2023:
  Correction phase — the index dipped to 469.38, roughly an 8% decline, likely due to inflation fears and rising mortgage rates.
• Q2 2023 to Q1 2024:
  Recovery trend — regained momentum, gradually climbing back to around 509.07 by January 2024.
• Most Recent (2024 to Q1 2025):
  Stabilization — hovering just above 508, with a slight downtick to 505.95 by January 2025. This suggests a plateau in prices, possibly indicating market equilibrium or buyer fatigue at current price levels.

📊 Key Observations:

• Peak Index: 509.27 (April 2022) — prices have since oscillated just below this level, indicating a resilient but mature market.
• Recovery Strength: Prices rebounded well after the 2022–2023 dip, signaling strong underlying demand.
• Flatline in 2024: Minimal change throughout the year implies a wait-and-see attitude among buyers/sellers, likely tied to interest rate expectations or economic uncertainty.

🧭 Implications for Strategy:

• For Sellers: We’re near historic price highs. If rates remain stable, pricing slightly below peak comps could attract strong offers.
• For Buyers: While prices aren’t dropping, there’s less upward pressure now — negotiating leverage may be improving.
• For Appraisal/Valuation: Use mid-2022 or early 2024 comparables carefully — they represent market peaks and may not reflect current buyer tolerance unless demand surges again.