We wanted to share a more refined, data-driven look at how recent global events—specifically the late-February escalation in Iran—are influencing our local Belmont real estate market.
Rather than focusing on when homes closed, we analyzed when buyers actually made their offers. This gives us a much clearer view of real-time buyer behavior.
What the Data Shows
Using March 1, 2026 as the dividing line:
- Before March 1 (pre-event buyer decisions):
Homes averaged ~8.1% over asking - After March 1 (post-event buyer decisions):
Homes averaged ~12.0% over asking
What This Means
At least in the immediate aftermath, buyers did not pull back.
In fact, we saw:
- Continued strong demand
- More aggressive bidding on well-positioned homes
This is a pattern we often see in the Peninsula—when uncertainty increases, serious buyers tend to act decisively rather than wait.
A More Nuanced Shift Beneath the Surface
While averages increased, the results are becoming more spread out:
- Some homes are achieving significant premiums
- Others are selling closer to—or even slightly below—asking
This widening range is often the first signal of a market beginning to differentiate more sharply between homes.
Our Initial Take
Momentum remains strong for now, and desirable homes are still commanding premium prices.
However, this type of environment often marks the early stages of a shift toward:
- Greater buyer selectivity
- Wider variation in outcomes
- Increased importance of pricing and presentation strategy
We’ll continue to monitor this closely, as the next few weeks will be especially telling in terms of whether this trend holds or begins to soften.
👉 If you’re thinking about selling—or simply want to understand where your home stands in today’s evolving market—we’re happy to provide a personalized, data-driven evaluation.
Drew and Christine Morgan are experienced REALTORS and NOTARY PUBLIC located in Belmont, CA, where they own and operate MORGANHOMES, Inc. They have assisted buyers and sellers in their community for over 30 years. Drew and Christine have received the coveted Diamond award, ranking among the top 50 agents nationwide and the top 3 in Northern California by RE/MAX. To contact them, please call (650) 508.1441 or emailinfo@morganhomes.com.
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This article provides educational information and is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered real estate, tax, insurance, or legal advice; it cannot replace advice tailored to your situation. It’s always best to seek guidance from a professional familiar with your scenario.
BROKER | MANAGER | NOTARY
